DAVID FIALA and Staff 11/19/2014 6:46 AM Morning Market Commentary DEC CORN CZ14 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Down Up Up JAN SOYBEANS SF15 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Down Up Up DEC HRW WHEAT KWZ14 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Down Down Up Support 1 Resistance 1 Fiala Fund Estimate 369 377 +280k 8 Yr. Record Long +458k Support 2 Resistance 2 CFTC Fund w/opt 11/11 8 Yr. Record Short 367 381 +282k -125k* Corn trade is 2 to 4 lower in limited overnight trade with pressure coming from weakness in the soybean pit. Outside markets are fairly neutral this morning with the dollar holding the losses from yesterday. Basis has started to show signs of improvement with significant harvest activity wrapping up. The ethanol production margins remain solid while blenders are being squeezed by sliding unleaded gasoline values. The weekly ethanol production report is expected to show production down slightly and stocks up slightly. On the chart trade has slipped below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages overnight, and a close below the $3.71 area today will likely keep some short term pressure on the market. Support 1 Resistance 1 1016 1036 Support 2 Resistance 2 Fiala Fund Estimate +55k CFTC Fund w/opt 11/11 9 Yr. Record Long +260k 9 Yr. Record Short 1008 1050 +61k -56k Soybean trade is 5 to 10 cents lower overnight with trade coming slightly off the overnight lows. Meal is $1 to $2 lower, and oil is flat to 10 points lower. The USDA also announced an additional sale of 106,607 metric tons of soybeans to an unknown destination yesterday, adding to the recent run of sales and supportive demand items. Processor and export basis has shown signs of improvement with the strong nearby demand. South American crop progress should improve in the near term, but many areas are playing catch up at this point. On the chart Jan beans have slipped below the 20-day at 10.27 with the 10.00 area being the next major level of support that could be tested. Resistance is at the $10.35 100-day, then the $10.86 high reached last week. Support 1 Resistance 1 Fiala Fund Estimate 590 598 +6k 3 Yr. Record Long +51k Support 2 Resistance 2 CFTC Fund w/opt 11/11 3 Yr. Record Short 585 603 +0k -9k Wheat trade is 3 to 6 lower across the three exchanges overnight with trade drifting lower with pressure from the softer row crop trade and limited fresh demand news. The dollar broke sharply lower yesterday, but recent weakness has not been sustained and the dollar remains near the high end of the recent range. The Russian/Ukraine political situation will continue to be watched. Cold weather is expected to linger across the plains with a brief warm up this weekend. The 10-day moving average is first support on the December KC contract at $5.89 which we are challenging at overnight with resistance at $6.12, the high printed on Friday. DEC LIVE CATTLE LCZ14 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Up Up Up DEC LEAN HOGS LHZ14 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Down Up Up Support 1 Resistance 1 Fiala Fund Estimate 17062 17102 +136k Support 2 Resistance 2 CFTC Fund w/opt 11/11 3 Yr. Record Long +157k* 3 Yr. Record Short 17045 17125 +121k +17k Live cattle are called mixed with trade likely drifting a bit until a better read on cash fat cattle trade can be ascertained. Feeder cattle are called 10 to 30 higher with support from the softer corn trade. The cutout was firmer yesterday with choice up .02 at 254.29 and select up 1.23 at 241.26. Showlists remain tight again this week, as asking prices starting in the $174-175 area with no serious bids yet. The record type cold persistent November temperatures to-date is viewed as friendly. There is limited December chart resistance to note with support at $170 then the 10-day at $168.10. Support 1 Resistance 1 Fiala Fund Estimate 9105 9205 +82k 3 Yr. Record Long +116k* Support 2 Resistance 2 CFTC Fund w/opt 11/11 3 Yr. Record Short 9055 9255 +72k -11k Lean hog trade is called 10 to 40 lower on follow through selling from the liquidation seen yesterday. Ready hog availability looks good through the middle of the week, which could undermine the board gains to start the week if sustained. The fresh pork cutout slipped as ham trade broke lower yesterday. The cold weather is bringing in more reports of PEDv, but they do not seem as widespread as last year so far. Carcass weights should moderate a bit with the cold temperatures in the near term. On the December chart support is at the 10-day at $90.20 with resistance now at the $92.50 200-day moving average. The board has priced in the recent friendly items, so it may need additional news to keep pushing. There is a significant risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Support, resistance and trend numbers or biases are based on mechanical technical methods that are only provided as numbers and pose no recommendation to buy or sell nor guaranteed for accuracy. This is not a solicitation. *Recent CFTC Record