June 15, 2015
A Sharekhan commodity research newsletter
Gold: Bearish stance
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
Weekly close: $1,180
Last week gold saw buying emerge at lower levels and as
a result it ended the week on a positive note. On the way
up it had faced resistance at the 20- and 40-day moving
average and has been unable to surpass that. The Bollinger
bands are witnessing contraction indicating consolidation.
The daily momentum indicator has triggered a positive
crossover which is a bullish sign. Our sense is that the
current rise that it is witnessing is just a retracement of
the fall and once the retracement is over the next wave
on the downside should resume. Thus, we continue to
maintain our negative stance on gold for the targets of
$1,142 which is the swing low it touched in March earlier
this year and below that we expect the level of $1,100
which is the equality target of the previous wave. Traders
should keep a stop loss of $1,205 for the short positions.
Trend
Trend
Reversal
Supports
Down
$1,205
$1,142/1,100
Resistances
Target
$1,192/1,205
$1,100
1370
1360
1350
100.0%
1340
ii
1330
B or 2
1320
1310
1300
78.6%
1290
1280
i
1270
iv
1260
1250
1240
D
1230
1220
1210
1205
1200
1190
1180
iii
1170
1160
1150
1142
1140
0.0%
1130
A or 1
1120
1110
1100
1100
1090
May
June
July
August
September October
November December
2015
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Silver: Drifting lower
10
5
Weekly close: $15.92
0
-5
Last week silver continued to drift lower and has ended
the week on a negative note. It saw some buying emerge
from the lower end of the channel however, not very
significant and the bounce was also sold into. The daily
and weekly momentum indicators are bearing a negative
crossover and the price pattern also does not suggest trend
reversal. Thus, we continue to maintain our negative
stance on silver for targets of $15.26 and $14.4 which are
crucial swing lows. Traders should keep a stop loss of $17.15
for the short positions.
19.5
19.0
18.5
17.5
17.15
17.0
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.26
15.0
Trend
Reversal
Supports
Resistances
Target
Down
$17.15
$15.26/14.4
$16.6/17.15
$14.4
14.5
14.4
w
14.0
29 6
13
October
Trend
18.0
x
20
27
3
10 17
November
24
1
8
15
December
22
29
5
12
2015
19
26
2
9
16
February
23
2
9
March
16
23
30 6
April
13
20
27
4
11
May
18
25
1
8
June
15
22
29 6
July
13
2
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Sharekhan
Braveheart’s Best (Commodities)
Copper: Melting down
5
Weekly close: $2.67
0
-5
Last week copper did see a retracement after a five-wave
decline however, the retracement was arrested near the
20- and 40-day moving average. It saw a sharp decline
from that resistance and has also broken the low of the
previous five-wave decline which indicates that the next
wave on the downside has started. The daily momentum
indicator is bearing a positive crossover however, the price
structure does not suggest taking a long position. The
overall trend for copper shall remain negative and hence
we maintain our negative stance on copper for the targets
of $2.62 and $2.55. A stop loss should be placed at $2.77,
which is the high it had touched last week.
Trend
Trend
Reversal
Supports
Resistances
Target
Down
$2.77
$2.62/2.55
$2.77/2.81
$2.55
3.15
3.10
3.05
3.00
0.0%
2.95
2.90
2.85
2.81
2.80
2.75
2.70
2.65
61.8%
2.62
2.60
2.55
2.55
2.50
2.45
100.0%
2.40
2.35
8
ecember
15
22
29
5
2015
12
20
26
2
9
February
17
23
2
9
March
16
23
30 6
April
13
20
27
4
May
11
18
26
1
8
June
15
22
29
6
13
2
July
Crude oil: Consolidating in a range
10
Weekly close: $59.96
5
0
-5
Last week crude oil held on to the 40-day moving average
and ended the week on a positive note. It is still trading
within the range of $62.58–56.00. Unless it gives a clear
breakout of the range on either side the consolidation
can continue. The daily momentum indicator is bearing a
positive crossover. We expect this sideways consolidation
to break on the upside and hence we continue to maintain
our positive stance on crude oil for the targets of $62.58,
which is the recent swing high and above that we expect
$64, which is the 40-week moving average. Traders should
keep a stop loss of $56.8, which is the low it touched in
the last week for the long positions.
Trend
Up
Trend
Reversal
Supports
Resistances
Target
$56.8
$59.4/58.2
$62.6/64.0
$64.0
For Private Circulation only
Braveheart’s Best
(Commodities)
-10
64
v
62.6
0.0%
63
62
61
iii
60
iii
59
iv
iii
23.6%
58
57
56.8
56
iv
i
38.2%
55
iv
54
i
53
52
i
51
50
ii
49
48
ii
47
ii
46
45
44
43
100.0%
42
41
17
2
23
2
March
9
June 15, 2015
16
23
30
6
April
13
20
27
4
May
11
18
26
1
June
8
15
22
2
Home
Sharekhan
Braveheart’s Best (Commodities)
Jeera: Bearish stance
30
25
20
Weekly close: Rs16,580
The adjoining is a weekly chart of NCDEX jeera. Last week
jeera saw a follow-through of the fall and has resulted in
a weekly negative close. It has reached the lower end of
the channel and also the 20-week moving average and
therefore seen a bounce. However, our sense is that it is
just a bounce and this bounce should be sold into. The
weekly momentum indicator is bearing a negative
crossover indicating bearishness. On the daily charts the
fall from the high of Rs18,930 to the low of Rs15,860 is a
five-wave decline and hence we can conclude that the
current bounce is just a retracement of the fall and once
this retracement is over the next leg on the downside
should resume. Thus, we continue to maintain our negative
stance on jeera for the target of Rs14,380, which is the
crucial support in the form of 50% Fibonacci retracement
level. Traders should keep a stop loss of Rs18,930 for the
short positions.
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
20000
19500
19000
18500
18000
17500
18930
v
0.0%
iii
3
17000
iv
16500
i
16000
15500
38.2%
15000
14500
50.0%
14380
ii
14000
13500
61.8%
4
13000
12500
12000
1
11500
11000
10500
2
10000
100.0%
9500
9000
8500
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Trend
Trend
Reversal
Supports
Down
Rs18,930
Rs15,860/
Rs14,380
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
J
Resistances
Target
Rs18,185/
Rs18,930
Rs14,380
Soya bean: Sell on rises
20
15
Weekly close: Rs3,770
10
5
0
-5
-10
The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX soya bean.
Last week the bulls were unable to defend the crucial
support of the 40-day moving average and as a result it
has seen a sharp fall. The weekly momentum indicator
has also triggered a negative crossover. In the daily charts
it is trading below the 20- and 40-day moving average,
indicating bearishness. It is trading along the daily lower
Bollinger band which is expanding, indicating that the
current fall shall continue. Considering all the above
factors we change our view on soya bean to negative for
the target of Rs3,330. Traders should adopt a strategy of
sell on rises to trade in this agricultural commodity to
have a good risk-reward ratio. Traders should keep a stop
loss of Rs4,160 which is the high of the penultimate week
for the short positions.
Trend
Trend
Reversal
Supports
Resistances
Target
Down
Rs4,160
Rs3,511/
Rs3,330
Rs3,960/
Rs4,160
Rs3,330
For Private Circulation only
Braveheart’s Best
(Commodities)
-15
-20
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
4400
100.0%
78.6%
4300
4200
4100
4160
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3330
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
0.0%
2800
2700
2600
Mar
3
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
June 15, 2015
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Oct
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Dec
2015
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Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
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Dec
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Sharekhan
Braveheart’s Best (Commodities)
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in error, please contact the sender and delete the material immediately from your computer/mailbox. The information contained herein is from sources believed
reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may from time to time have positions in, or options on, and buy
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15, 2015banking, or other services for, any company mentioned. Any
and sell
securities
referred to herein.
to time solicit Best
from, or4 perform
investment
For
Private
Circulation
only We may from time Braveheart’s
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comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect
those of Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd."
(Commodities)