Daily Gold – currency or commodity The gold price has increasingly become a function of the strength of the US dollar in recent weeks with the correlation between gold and the dollar index on both a rolling 30-day and 90-day basis increasing to the highest (-ve) level since late 2012. The current correlation between the dollar index and gold is -0.96 on a 90-day basis, the strongest correlation since November 2012, while on a 30-day basis the correlation is the strongest since the beginning of October 2012. As a result, there seems little else really impacting on short term gold price movements with the metal acting as a pseudocurrency. With both Diwali and peak Indian wedding season having passed, demand is coming off the boil in India at least. Asian demand generally is still fairly solid however and showing signs of picking up. More interestingly the supply-side is also showing signs of tightening up too. This has yet to have a bearing on the price however. The latest World Gold Council data shows a surge in Indian gold imports during Q3, coming in at 204mt compared to 91 mt for the same period last year. October imports meanwhile clocked in at 150 mt, compared to 24.5 mt for the same month in 2013. Chinese net imports from Hong Kong meanwhile climbed to 68.6 mt in September, ahead of the Golden Week Holiday, the highest monthly total since March and nearly 2.5 times the level if imports seen in August. Imports were down sharply in y/y terms however nevertheless they have picked up strongly after a weak summer period. Complicating the picture in China however is that Hong Kong is now not the only source of gold imports to China, with material starting to go directly into the Shanghai free trade zone. The HK data is however still the only source of Chinese gold import information with other gold imports still rather secretive and a grey area overall. Arguably, the use of Shanghai as a destination for imports renders the Hong Kong trade data obsolete, or at best an unreliable proxy for overall Chinese gold imports, with the true figure likely to be higher. In spite of decent physical demand, ETF liquidation continues amid low inflation expectations, dollar strength and robust equity markets. With the Swiss referendum on gold reserves due at the end of this month unlikely to have an immediate impact on real physical demand (Commodities Daily 31 October 2014), it seems like the dollar will remain in charge. By Leon Westgate Spot gold price vs. US dollar index 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 02/01/2007 95 90 85 80 75 70 02/01/2009 Spot Gold ($/oz) Source: Bloomberg 02/01/2011 02/01/2013 Dollar Index Commodities Strategist Leon Westgate [email protected] +44-203-145-6822 Commodities Strategist Melinda Moore [email protected] +44-203-145-6887 This material is "non-independent research". Non-independent research is a "marketing communication" as defined in the UK FCA Handbook. It has not been prepared in accordance with the full legal requirements designed to promote independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. www.standardbank.com/research Global | Commodities 13 November 2014 Standard Bank Global | Commodities 13 November 2014 Spot gold - dollar index correlation (30-day) Spot gold - dollar index correlation (90-day) 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Source: Bloomberg -1 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Source: Bloomberg Base metals A strong start has given way to weakness heading into US trade with all of the base metals falling sharply. Reports that the PBOC is looking at ways to support lending to small enterprises helped mitigate the impact of weak Chinese economic data overnight. That said however, with IP falling to 7.7% y/y in October vs. expectations of 8.0% and amid suggestions that the growth target might be reduced, signs for further stimulus, targeted or otherwise will be closely watched. Copper looked to move higher initially before coming under pressure heading into US trade. The recent sporadic inflows of metal into LME warehouses have ended, with headline stocks falling 850 mt and on-warrant stocks remaining unchanged. The dominant holder of copper cash and tom warrants is still present in the latest LME data, though the cash holding has slipped form the 50-79% band to the 40-49% band, though the tom position is unchanged and still sits in the 50-79% band. Aluminium has also come under pressure however it remains relatively well supported. Aluminium has nevertheless still failed to break above trend-line resistance on 6 occasions now and needs to rebuild momentum. As noted yesterday (Commodities Daily 12 November 2014) there is a bit of a tussle going on in terms of the futures bandings report with a dominant long going up against various short positions for the November prompt date. With year-end factors coming into play too, the tightness and volatility in the nearby spreads will help deter aggressive shorts. Leon Westgate Bulks Chinese financial steels gapped lower at the open and then flat-lined for most of the day before falling away into the close, tracking equities taking China’s macro data releases in its stride. IO also range-traded again today, for the 6th trading day in a row, suggesting that the worst of this month’s destock could be over, although with no upward momentum as yet, due to the availability of significant physical cargoes still on water to absorb in light of November’s weakening demand conditions (which as previously argued need to be entirely separated from Beijing APEC). China’s economic data continued to slide into October. The country’s IP rose 7.7% y/y, compared to 8% in September, while retail sales grew 11.5% y/y, dropping from 12% in September. YTD FAI grew 15.9%, compared to 16.1% in September. One State Council researcher is suggesting retail sales growth may only reach 10.5% in 2015, 2 Standard Bank Global | Commodities 13 November 2014 although exports may see growth expand from 6% this year to 7% in 2015, while the 1st tier city property sector may begin to bottom out of its excess stocks – something which will help support steel consumption levels next year, especially needed if China faces an uptick in trade action! Shanghai Equities fell 0.36% to 2,486 points, initially rallying post-lunch after October’s poor data releases, before giving up gains into the close. Beijing continues to message towards setting a 2015 GDP target closer to 7%, which reflects negatively. Meanwhile the PBOC is reportedly inviting smaller city commercial banks to apply for cash injections for smaller enterprises, helping not to kill sentiment completely today, following the weaker data. Shanghai 7-day interbank rates at 3.10%. As expected, the PBOC sold a further RMB 20bln 14-day reverse repos at 3.15%, offsetting the week’s maturing funds, with a further RMB 40bln maturing next week also. Spot Currency traded at 6.1277, while the PBOC reference rate set at 6.1418. China’s power generation printed at only 1.9% y/y growth to 444.6 bln kwH, while YTD, generation grew 4.2% y/y. Meanwhile China’s real estate market sales sales up 12.6% m/m to 24.16m sq m, supported by improved government and lending purchase incentives, after registering a Sept YTD sales drop of 10% y/y. Shanghai Rebar Futures active Jan-15 contract closed down RMB 26/t at RMB 2626/t, while the May-15 contract closed down RMB 34/t at RMB 2520/t. SHFE HRC Jan-15 futures fell RMB 18/t to RMB 2,870/t. Among physical steels, Tangshan billet prices fell RMB 10/t to RMB 2,430/t I late afternoon trading. Rebar prices fell RMB 10/t in both Shanghai and Beijing, with winter sales continuing to contract. Beijing’s night-time temperatures look to be heading below 0 degrees by mid-next week. HRC prices remained unchanged again in Shanghai and Beijing. China’s crude steel output contracted 0.3% y/y (and m/m) to 67.52mt, with daily average output tracking at 2.18mt/day, compared to 2.25mt/day in September. YTD output is tracking at 685.35mt, up 2.1% y/y. China’s Pig Iron output fell by a higher 3.1% y/y to 57.01mt in October, tracking at 1.84mt/day, compared to 1.96mt/day in September and 1.95mt/day in August, suggesting momentum continues to drop for IO demand. Dalian Commodity Exchange IO active Jan-15 contract closed up RMB 2/t to RMB 538/t, while the May-15 contract closed RMB 1/t lower at RMB 507/t. Among physical iron ore, globalORE traded a Yandi fines 58% basis 1Q-cargo at index plus 10 cents, followed by a 1Q Newman fines (62% basis) at index; then a Yandi Jan-cargo at index plus 10 cents. An IOCJ Fe 65%-basis Dec-cargo sold for $85.60/t, as well as a MNP Fe 62%-basis Dec-cargo at $75.60/t. Local Chinese platform COREX was quiet. A private PB fines cargo sold for $75/t. The TSI Fe 62% China CFR price index was up $0.10/t to $75.50/t (MTD: $75.99/t). The Platts Fe 62% index was down $0.25/t to $75.75/t, while the TSI Fe 58% index fell $0.10/t to $68.50/t (MTD: $68.82/t). The Metal Bulletin Fe 62% index was down $0.22/t to $75.98/t, while its Fe 58% index was down $0.26/t to $63.88/t. Argus Fe 62% printed at $74.25/t. Mysteel’s Fe 62% index printed at $75.75/t, while its Fe 58% index printed at $67.25/t, both unchanged. In IO supply news, Australia exported 60.9mt in October, the 2nd highest month on record, up from 57.73mt in September and a record 61.3mt in August. RioT shipped a fresh record from Walcott of 12.2mt, up from 11.8mt in August and 10.35mt in 3 Standard Bank Global | Commodities 13 November 2014 September. India’s Jkarkhand state has agreed to renew Tata’s mining licences, while waiting for its Odisha Khonbond mine to be unsuspended. The Baltic Exchange Cape index shifted 9.5% lower to $20,702/day, with C3 at $20.825/t and C5 at $8.541/t, while C4 is $11.055/t and C7 is $11.930/t. FFA Cal15 capes are trading in the $13,600/day range, while Nov-Dec is trading in the $17,700/day range. For Q1:15 thermal coal prices, API 2 is trading at $71.30/t; API 4 is trading at $66.25/t; while Newcastle is trading at $64.00/t, weakening on the back of China’s export tax removal threats and ongoing falls in oil markets. Among physical deals, Dec Newc traded at $63.00 and Jan Newc traded at $63.10/t, up 40 cents on the day. Meanwhile just as China says it plans to reduce its thermal coal imports by 50-100mt next year and potentially now even begin to export, India is also now calling for reduced imports within the next 3 years, further limiting upside potential for miners, hoping to see prices lift. Amusingly the IEA has just forecast that thermal prices will rise to $100/t in 2020, due to Indian import growth, although acknowledging European structural declines from the 213mt imported in 2012. India hopes to lift Coal India’s output to 1bln tonnes by 2019, more than double last financial year’s levels of 463mt., while targeting 507mt this year. India’s imports are running at over 200mt this year, with forecasts easily over 240mt by 2018. Australia exported 31.87mt of coal in October, down only slightly from September’s 31.89mt, as Asian plants begin their winter restock. November’s data is likely to be lower due to maintenance work at NEWC. US coal exports are expected to drop by 20mt to 96mt according to the US EIA and below 90mt next year. Zhengzhou Futures Jan-15 thermal contract prices fell RMB 1/t to RMB 497.80/t, while the May-15 contract was up RMB 0.2/t to RMB 492.20/t. China’s power generation printed at only 1.9% y/y growth to 444.6 bln kwH. Hydro output fell 13.2% m/m, although up 34.7% y/y. Thermal power output fell 5.8% y/y however and is up just 0.1% y/y. China is formally considering cutting its coal export tariff from 10% to 3% in early 2015, which will further weigh on seaborne thermal and met coal prices. NAR 5500 appears to be valued in the $64/t range for Dec-cargoes. Premium Hard Coking Coal spot prices are trading in the $108-113/t Qld FOB range, with China CFR prices ranging $118-123/t. TSI FOB Qld printed at $113.40/t, while China CFR printed at $123.90/t. MB FOB Qld printed at $112.79/t, while China CFR printed at $121.78/t. The Argus Qld fob index printed at $110.75/t. China is formally considering cutting its coal export tariff from 10% to 3% in early 2015, which will further weigh on seaborne thermal and met coal prices. BHPB is suggesting Dec prices for Peak Downs of $118/t FOB and $116/t for FOB, as well as Gregory at $99/t and Blackwater at $90.50/t to Indian mills. On the Dalian Exchange, Jan-15 coke price traded down RMB 4/t to RMB 1,068/t, while the May-15 contract fell RMB 3/t to RMB 1,064/t. Among Dalian HCC prices, Jan-15 contract prices closed up RMB 3/t to RMB 778/t, while the May-15 contract closed up RMB 4/t to RMB 771/t. Coking coal port stocks have fallen to 6.16mt, off 10% w/w, partly due to the impost of a 3% import tax since mid-October. By Melinda Moore 4 Standard Bank Global | Commodities 13 November 2014 Commodities Data LME 3 month Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc 2,043 6,694 2,038 15,470 20,125 2,270 2,060 6,680 2,049 15,610 20,125 2,281 2,075 6,720 2,056 15,794 20,159 2,295 2,035 6,664 2,033 15,381 20,025 2,260 17 -14 11 140 0 11 0.83 -0.21 0.53 0.90 0.00 0.47 LME inventory Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc Today Yesterday In Out 4,402,775 159,950 216,350 389,136 10,115 689,500 4,406,575 160,800 216,375 388,776 9,905 689,700 0 0 0 1,200 250 0 3,800 850 25 840 40 200 One day change -3,800 -850 -25 360 210 -200 YTD change (mt) -1,055,300 -206,475 1,900 127,500 430 -243,975 Cancelled warrants (mt) 2,501,050 27,300 10,100 85,992 1,730 109,325 Cancelled warrants (%) 57 17 5 22 17 16 Contract turnover 353,380 134,807 56,173 60,680 4,851 110,213 Open Last 1d Change COMEX Open Close Change Change (%) 13750 47320 20,125 13770 47400 20,125 30 140 0 Ali Feb'14 Cu Feb'14 302.5 304.9 2.4 0.79 AM Fix 1,161.00 1,202.00 774.00 PM Fix 1,164.50 15.62 1,204.00 776.00 High bid 1,170.24 15.79 1,211.20 783.60 Low offer 1,157.42 15.57 1,199.15 770.25 Closing bid 1,162.55 15.67 1,200.50 773.70 Daily change -69.22 -1.52 -54.60 -5.60 1 month -0.2125 0.62 0.1533 2 months -0.1575 0.616 0.202 3 months -0.1025 0.618 0.2332 6 months 0 0.612 0.326 12 months 0.115 0.568 0.5643 30-day RSI 10-day MA 20-day MA 100-day MA 200-day MA Support Resistance 38.5 32.24 33.91 46.19 1,160.82 15.77 1,212.52 775.31 1,195.60 16.47 1,236.70 776.56 1,258.28 18.80 1,374.53 834.63 1,280.44 19.44 1,408.99 813.91 1,154.57 15.61 1,196.87 773.75 1,168.81 15.84 1,208.22 779.60 COMEX GLD COMEX SLV NYMEX PAL NYMEX PLAT DGCX GLD TOCOM GLD CBOT GLD 1161.6 444599 50167 15.74 171907 38620 777.5 34843 -1495 1205.3 60794 -240 1162.3 1271 5 4309 94093 -8649 1159.9 4 -309 1 month Change 2 month Change 3 month Change 6 month Change 96.402 0.18 96.152 0.17 96.279 0.02 97.398 -0.07 715.75 -12.50 711.75 -11.75 724.5 -12.00 729.5 -11.75 807.11 1.83 796.14 1.14 791.38 -0.29 795.17 0.42 99.376 0.30 98.412 0.22 98.029 0.12 97.998 0.11 429.271 -2.71 422.704 -5.76 424.457 -5.41 430.126 -6.08 434.65 -4.54 430.77 -5.75 433 -5.58 440.25 -5.98 467.749 -2.86 460.641 -6.39 458.632 -5.65 461.001 -5.83 Q3 14 74.50 Change -0.50 Q4 14 77.05 Change -0.45 Q1 15 78.65 Change -0.35 Cal 15 80.45 Change -0.40 73.85 -0.15 74.05 -0.20 75.25 -0.05 76.75 -0.10 Shanghai 3month Aluminium Copper Zinc Cash Settle Change in cash settle 2,062.00 44 6,752.50 65 2,034.00 16 15,535.00 445 20,150.00 225 2,274.50 38 Precious metals Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Forwards (%) Gold Silver USD Libor Technical Indicators Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Active Month Future Settlement Open Interest Change in Open Interest Energy Energy futures pricing Sing Gasoil ($/bbbl) Gasoil 0.1% Rdam ($/mt) NWE CIF jet ($/mt) Singapore Kero ($/bbl) 3.5% Rdam barges ($/mt) 1% Fuel Oil FOB ($/mt) Sing FO180 Cargo ($/mt) Thermal coal API2 (CIF ARA) API4 (FOB RBCT) Source: LME, Comex, Nymex, SHFE, Standard Bank 5 Cash - 3m 10.25 67.00 -8.25 -63.50 6.00 -6.00 Standard Bank Global | Commodities 13 November 2014 Commodity Data cont. Bulks Steel—Physical Turkish Scrap 80:20 (Iskinderun CFR) $/t China Tangshan Steel Billet $/t China HRC export (Shanghai FOB) $/t North Europe HRC domestic (ex-works) $/t North America HRC domestic (Midwest FOB) $/t Steel—Futures LME Billet Cash $/t LME Billet Futures (1-mth) $/t LME Steel Billet Stocks—change Shanghai Rebar Futures (Active contract) $/t Shanghai Rebar Futures On-Warrant Stocks—change China Steel Inventory (million tonnes) Iron ore China Iron Ore Fines (62% Fe; CFR Tianjin) $/t China Iron Ore Fines (58% Fe; CFR Tianjin) $/t SGX AsiaClear IO Swaps 62% Fe $/t (1-mth) China Iron Ore Inventory (million tonnes) Coking coal Premium Hard Coking Coal (Qld FOB) $/t Capesize freight Saldanha South Africa-Beilun China Financials pricing RMB Currency China 7-day repo Shanghai Equities Composite Source: LME, Bloomberg, Standard Bank 6 Latest Price 299.14 403.00 473.00 417.50 642.00 1-day -6.95% -0.25% -1.05% 0.00% 0.31% 1-week -10.34% -1.95% -3.27% -1.76% -1.98% 1-month -20.34% -8.20% -7.62% 0.60% -5.31% 3-month -19.69% -12.58% -8.69% -2.91% -7.23% 6-month -21.39% -19.24% -9.21% -2.91% -4.46% 460.00 460.00 0.00 432.76 0.00 10.43 0.00% 0.00% -0.17% -3.20% 2.91% 2.91% 4.19% -14.23% 10.44% 10.25% -12.98% -16.24% 19.48% 19.17% -19.67% -32.46% 100.00% 99.13% -22.46% -21.16% 75.97 99.53 0.62% -0.28% -8.28% -1.34% -19.10% -3.43% -26.87% -4.55% -43.81% 33.78% 112.35 0.00% -1.27% -1.36% -3.15% -22.06% 19.50 0.00% 51.16% 13.37% 39.78% 15.04% 6.13 3.14 2485.61 0.22% -11.55% 2.46% 0.00% 2.61% 5.05% -0.46% -15.14% 11.82% -1.65% -1.26% 21.21% 0.57% -16.04% 19.05% Standard Bank Global | Commodities 13 November 2014 Disclaimer This material is non-independent research. 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