1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. oil

November 19, 2014
Blake Fernandez504.582.2528
[email protected]
WEEKLY REFINING INDICATORS REPORT
Leonard Raymond504.582.2884
[email protected]
WEEK ENDING 11/14/2014
Quick Take: Higher imports largely accounted for the larger
than expected crude build this week. Utilization levels
continued to rise as we move out of turnaround season up to
91.2% (up 2.6% from same week Y/Y). From a regional
standpoint, the build was primarily on the Gulf Coast
(+1.9MMBbls) and at Cushing (+700MBbls). On the demand
front, gasoline is down 0.2% and distillate is down 9.7% on a
Y/Y trailing 4-week basis. We expect demand growth is on the
horizon with US pump prices falling below $3/gallon (lowest
prices have been for this time of year over the past 5 years),
along with SUV sales +9% Y/Y.
Days of Crude Demand Cover
27x
25x
23x
21x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
•
•
•
Trailing 4-week average crude throughput is 2.1% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate November demand cover
of 24.4 days (November ‘13 = 24.9 days, November 09-13
avg. = 24.5).
Trailing 4-week average gasoline demand is 0.2% below
the year-ago comp. We estimate November demand cover
of 22.5 days (November ‘13 = 23.5 days, November 09 -13
avg. = 23.7).
Trailing 4-week average distillate demand is 9.7% below
the year-ago comp. We estimate November demand cover
of 30.5 days (November ‘13 = 28.9 days, November 09-13
avg. = 35.9).
Jul
Sep
Nov
2013
2014
Days of Gasoline Demand Cover
29x
27x
25x
23x
21x
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
5-yr Avg.
Sep
Nov
2013
2014
Days of Distillate Demand Cover
•
Trailing 4-week average total product demand is 2.3%
below the year-ago comp. We estimate November demand
cover of 56.9 days (November ‘13 = 54.7 days, November
09-13 avg. = 57.0).
55x
48x
41x
34x
27x
20x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
2013
Nov
2014
Days of Total Product Demand Cover
65x
60x
55x
50x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
2013
Sep
Nov
2014
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Howard Weil is a division of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a member of the Scotiabank group, and represents Scotiabank’s energy equities
business in the United States. All relevant disclosures and certifications begin on Page 12 of this report.
Howard Weil | Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.  1100 Poydras Street, Suite 3500  New Orleans, LA 70163
Page 1 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
DOE Inventories & Imports (000s)
TOTAL U.S.
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
Inventories
Crude
381,078
388,463
-2%
357,832
6%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock) 204,599
208,853
-2%
207,510
-1%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
114,794
112,541
2%
136,799
-16%
18,340
96,454
18,275
94,266
0%
2%
37,171
99,627
-51%
-3%
7,638
7,863
-3%
8,311
-8%
426
451
-6%
678
-37%
48
97
-51%
138
-65%
15,913
15,447
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
Imports
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
Crude Throughput
Refinery Utilization
91.2%
88.6%
3%
3%
14,642
85.3%
9%
7%
REGIONAL INVENTORY
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
PADD 1 (Northeast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
12,785
11,189
14%
11,077
15%
49,894
52,419
-5%
51,934
-4%
14,302
16,267
-12%
15,967
37,477
36,279
3%
54,080
-31%
9,169
28,308
11,455
24,824
-20%
14%
29,123
24,957
-69%
13%
100,150
44,486
110,465
48,601
-9%
96,946
47,612
-7%
PADD 2 (Midwest)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
-8%
3%
5,328
5,593
-5%
5,584
22,890
24,663
-7%
25,798
-11%
194,547
75,213
192,489
71,980
1%
176,736
72,619
10%
4%
9,878
9,832
0%
11,063
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
38,870
35,470
10%
41,427
-6%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
20,819
20,573
1%
17,651
18%
6,852
3,671
7,279
3,423
-6%
6,591
3,140
17%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
52,777
28,154
53,747
28,573
-2%
55,422
28,754
-5%
-1%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
11,885
12,706
-6%
12,354
-4%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
4%
PADD 4 (Rockies)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
7%
4%
PADD 5 (West Coast)
November 19, 2014
-2%
Page 2 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Demand vs. Supply Charts
US Crude Demand (000 Bbl/d)
US Crude Stocks (000 Bbls)
17,000
400,000
15,750
350,000
14,500
13,250
300,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
Jul
'13
Sep
'14
Nov
5-yr Avg
U.S. Gasoline Stocks (000 Bbls)
U.S. Gasoline Demand (000 Bbl/d)
250,000
9,850
9,375
225,000
8,900
200,000
8,425
175,000
7,950
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
'13
'14
Sep
Jan
Nov
Mar
May
Jul
'13
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Demand (000 Bbl/d)
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Stocks (000 Bbls)
4,450
180,000
160,000
4,000
140,000
3,550
120,000
3,100
100,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
'13
US Total Product Demand (000 Bbl/d)
20,750
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Total Product Stocks (000 Bbls)
1,200,000
1,150,000
19,500
1,100,000
18,250
1,050,000
17,000
1,000,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
November 19, 2014
Jul
'14
Sep
5-yr Avg
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
Page 3 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Refinery Utilization
US Total Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD I Refinery Utilization (%)
95
100.0
90
90.0
85
80.0
80
70.0
75
60.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
'13
Jun
Jul
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
5-yr Avg
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD III Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD II Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Jan Feb
Nov Dec
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD V Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD IV Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
November 19, 2014
Aug Sep Oct
'14
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
Page 4 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
East Coast 6-3-2-1 (Brent + Freight)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
QTD 14
$3.70
$8.39
$7.46
$8.75
$10.08
East Coast 6-3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Chicago 2-1-1 (WTI)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$20.03
$21.18
$22.08
$20.55
QTD 14
$23.74
'13
'14
Chicago 2-1-1
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 (LLS)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$9.47
$10.86
$14.05
$12.11
'13
'14
Gulf Coast 3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
QTD 14
$8.44
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
($5.00)
5-yr Range
November 19, 2014
'13
'14
Page 5 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
West Coast 5-3-2 (ANS cif W. Coast)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$12.97
$14.00
$19.41
$16.85
QTD 14
$16.29
West Coast 5-3-2
$42.50
$34.00
$25.50
$17.00
$8.50
$0.00
5-yr Range
NW Europe 2-1-1 (Brent)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$8.30
$8.97
$11.54
$12.70
QTD 14
$11.51
'13
'14
NW Europe 2-1-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Singapore 2-1-1 (Dubai)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.43
$14.86
$13.88
$13.89
QTD 14
$14.57
'13
'14
Singapore 2-1-1
$30.00
$24.00
$18.00
$12.00
$6.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
November 19, 2014
'13
'14
Page 6 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Maya
LLS- Maya
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.59
$15.17
$9.76
$10.09
$24
$18
$12
QTD 14
$8.77
$6
$0
'13
$5.28
$3.73
$4.73
$3.70
QTD 14
$4.02
5-yr Avg
LLS - Mars
LLS - Mars
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$12
$9
$6
$3
$0
($3)
'13
LLS - ANS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
($4.08)
($1.52)
($4.05)
($1.24)
'14
5-yr Avg
LLS - ANS
$15
$10
$5
$0
QTD 14
$2.27
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
$3.61
$5.84
$2.41
$3.43
QTD 14
$3.26
5-yr Avg
LLS - WTI
LLS - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$35
$28
$21
$14
$7
$0
($7)
'13
November 19, 2014
'14
5-yr Avg
Page 7 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Brent
LLS - Brent
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
QTD 14
($8.36)
($3.51)
($4.35)
($0.94)
$0.08
$10
$5
$0
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
QTD 14
$11.97
$9.35
$6.75
$4.37
$3.18
5-yr Avg
Brent - WTI
Brent - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$32
$24
$16
$8
$0
($8)
'13
$3.85
$5.45
$7.35
$8.86
QTD 14
$2.36
5-yr Avg
WTI-WTS
WTI - WTS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
($5)
'13
QTD 14
$23.60
$12.95
$11.47
$10.81
$9.56
5-yr Avg
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
'13
November 19, 2014
'14
'10-'12 Avg
Page 8 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
CFTC: Non-Commercial Positions
NYMEX WTI
NYMEX WTI: Open Interest vs. Price
Net Long (Short) Position
375,000
296,052 295,946 293,683
278,780 280,101 267,304 268,532 276,832
250,000
125,000
0
9/26/14
$120.00
1.75
$95.00
1.5
$70.00
1.25
$45.00
1
$20.00
2009
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14
2010
2011
2012
Open Interest
NYMEX RBOB
2014
WTI
Net Long (Short) Position
Net Long (Short) Position
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
0
9/26/14
75,000
54,789
37,456
43,322
57,927
58,210
62,103
48,042
34,686
25,000
0
9/26/14
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14
November 19, 2014
# of contracts
# of contracts
2013
NYMEX #2 Heating Oil
100,000
50,000
WTI ($/bbl)
# of contracts
500,000
Oil Open Interest (MM Contracts)
2
1 contract = 1,000 barrels
(10,000)
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14
(7,137)
(10,037)
(13,887)
(20,000)
(18,645)
(22,112)
(30,000)
(26,509)
(28,461) (27,910)
(40,000)
Page 9 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Shipping
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: CRUDE OIL
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: GASOLINE
WTI-Brent
(Net of Freight)
USAC-NWE
(Net of Freight)
20.0
$0.00
($1.07)
($1.20)
($2.00)
$ per barrel
17.5
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14
($0.39)
($2.41)
($2.49)
($2.85)
($4.00)
($3.08)
($6.00)
cents per gallon
9/26/14
($0.55)
17.4
15.0
10.0
8.2
5.0
3.7
0.0
3.0
3.7
0.0
0.0
9/26/14
($8.00)
10/3/14
10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14
11/7/14
11/14/14
Gulf Coast/Europe Arbitrage: ULSD
Persian Gulf-USGC: Freight Rate (250' dirty tanker)
USGC-NWE
Trailing 8 weeks
(Net of Freight)
$1.20
3.0
$0.85
1.1
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
9/26/14
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14
$ per barrel
cents per gallon
$0.90
1.5
$0.79
$0.79
$0.66
$0.59
$0.60
$0.59
$0.52
$0.46
$0.30
(1.5)
$0.00
9/26/14
(3.0)
10/3/14 10/10/14 10/17/14 10/24/14 10/31/14 11/7/14 11/14/14
Total US Product Imports (000 Bbl/d)
Total US Product Exports (000 Bbl/d)
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
1
4
'14
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
'14
Note: Arb spread estimates provided above represent absolute values:
Positive #
Arb profit on NWE-sourced cargoes imported to U.S.
Negative #
Arb profit (ignore +/- sign) on U.S.-sourced cargoes exported to NWE
November 19, 2014
Page 10 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
WTI
BRENT
NYMEX WTI: 12-Month Strip
ICE Brent: 12-Month Strip
93
93
88
88
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
Energy Futures
83
78
73
CL2
CL3
10/24/2014
CL4
CL5
CL6
10/31/2014
CL7
CL8
CL9 CL10 CL11 CL12
11/7/2014
CO1
11/14/2014
CO2
CO3
10/24/2014
CO4
CO5
CO6
CO7
10/31/2014
CO8
RBOB
NYMEX RBOB: 12-Month Strip
ICE RBOB: 12-Month Strip
255
255
240
240
225
210
195
CO9 CO10 CO11 CO12
11/7/2014
RBOB
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
78
73
CL1
11/14/2014
225
210
195
XB1
XB2
XB3
XB4
10/24/2014
XB5
XB6
XB7
10/31/2014
XB8
XB9 XB10 XB11 XB12
11/7/2014
PG1
PG2
PG3
10/24/2014
11/14/2014
PG4
PG5
PG6
PG7
10/31/2014
PG8
PG9 PG10 PG11 PG12
11/7/2014
#2 HEATING OIL
GASOIL
NYMEX #2 Oil: 12-Month Strip
ICE Gasoil: 12-Month Strip
260
260
248
248
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
83
236
224
212
11/14/2014
236
224
212
HO1
HO2
HO3
10/24/2014
HO4
HO5
HO6
10/31/2014
HO7
HO8
HO9 HO10 HO11 HO12
11/7/2014
QS1
11/14/2014
QS2
QS3
10/24/2014
QS4
QS5
QS6
QS7
10/31/2014
QS8
QS9 QS10 QS11 QS12
11/7/2014
11/14/2014
3-2-1 REFINING MARGIN
2-1-1 REFINING MARGIN
NYMEX 3-2-1: 12-Month Strip
ICE 2-1-1: 12-Month Strip
27.00
27.00
21.00
21.00
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
15.00
9.00
3.00
15.00
9.00
3.00
1
2
3
10/24/2014
4
5
6
10/31/2014
7
8
9
11/7/2014
10
11
12
Avg.
11/14/2014
1
2
10/24/2014
3
4
5
6
10/31/2014
7
8
9
11/7/2014
10
11
12
Avg.
11/14/2014
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
November 19, 2014
Page 11 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Disclosures
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Analyst Certification
I, Blake Fernandez, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject securities or issuers; and I, Blake Fernandez, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.
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November 19, 2014
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