1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. oil

January 28, 2015
Blake Fernandez504.582.2528
[email protected]
WEEKLY REFINING INDICATORS REPORT
WEEK ENDING 01/23/2015
Quick Take: Another round of substantial crude builds as
higher imports combined with continued depressed
utilization rates mostly accounting for the larger than
expected increase this week. Inventories at Cushing
continue to build, up 2.1MMBbls wk/wk to 38.9MMBbls,
which is putting more pressure on the Brent/WTI spread.
On the demand side, gasoline is up 8.0% and distillate is up
5.6% on a Y/Y trailing 4-week basis. Product exports
increased by 219MBbl/d from last month bringing total to
3,590MBbl/d. Finally, overall domestic production increased
by 27MBbl/d wk/wk (Alaska -3MBbl/d & Lower-48
+30MBbl/d).
•
•
Trailing 4-week average crude throughput is even with
the year-ago comp. We estimate January demand cover
of 25.4 days (January ‘14 = 22.9 days, January 10-14
avg. = 23.7).
Trailing 4-week average gasoline demand is 8.0% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate January demand cover
of 27.0 days (January ‘14 = 28.1 days, January 10-14
avg. = 27.4).
Leonard Raymond504.582.2884
[email protected]
Days of Crude Demand Cover
27x
26x
24x
23x
21x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
Nov
2014
2015
Days of Gasoline Demand Cover
29x
27x
25x
23x
21x
•
•
Jan
Trailing 4-week average distillate demand is 5.6% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate January demand cover
of 34.3 days (January ‘14 = 31.6 days, January 10-14
avg. = 39.5).
Trailing 4-week average total product demand is 4.2%
above the year-ago comp.
We estimate January
demand cover of 58.6 days (January ‘14 = 54.8 days,
January 10-14 avg. = 57.1).
Mar
May
Jul
5-yr Avg.
Sep
Nov
2014
2015
Days of Distillate Demand Cover
55x
48x
41x
34x
27x
20x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
2014
Nov
2015
Days of Total Product Demand Cover
65x
60x
55x
50x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
2014
Sep
Nov
2015
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Scotia Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Scotia Howard Weil is a division of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a member of the Scotiabank group, and represents Scotiabank’s energy equities business in the United
States. All relevant disclosures and certifications begin on Page 12 of this report.
Scotia Howard Weil  1100 Poydras Street, Suite 3500  New Orleans, LA 70163
Page 1 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
DOE Inventories & Imports (000s)
TOTAL U.S.
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
Inventories
Crude
406,727
357,645
14%
347,097
17%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock) 238,335
234,446
2%
232,510
3%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
132,687
116,154
14%
142,752
-7%
13,881
118,806
17,333
98,821
-20%
20%
30,268
112,485
-54%
6%
7,422
8,048
-8%
8,375
-11%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
597
466
28%
826
-28%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
439
317
38%
339
29%
15,256
15,417
-1%
14,408
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
Imports
Crude
Crude Throughput
Refinery Utilization
88.0%
88.2%
0%
83.6%
6%
5%
REGIONAL INVENTORY
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
PADD 1 (Northeast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
13,018
11,047
18%
11,185
16%
64,278
63,728
1%
60,649
6%
19,872
19,530
2%
18,619
37,448
29,538
27%
48,911
-23%
6,665
30,783
9,383
20,155
-29%
53%
22,103
26,808
-70%
15%
119,977
52,770
110,073
53,391
101,519
54,152
18%
-1%
5,364
5,782
-7%
6,035
31,834
27,593
15%
31,562
202,341
80,968
166,342
75,325
22%
7%
166,496
76,861
11,008
9,197
20%
11,226
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
43,064
41,016
5%
44,125
-2%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
20,027
19,621
2%
17,309
16%
7,733
4,332
7,462
4,048
4%
6,930
3,646
12%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
51,364
32,586
50,562
34,540
-6%
50,589
33,918
-4%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
16,009
13,959
15%
14,509
10%
RBOB (Alcohol)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
PADD 2 (Midwest)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
9%
-3%
1%
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
22%
5%
PADD 4 (Rockies)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
7%
19%
PADD 5 (West Coast)
January 28, 2015
2%
2%
Page 2 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Demand vs. Supply Charts
US Crude Stocks (000 Bbls)
US Crude Demand (000 Bbl/d)
420,000
17,000
395,000
16,000
370,000
15,000
345,000
14,000
13,000
320,000
Jan
Mar
May
2014
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
2014
5-yr Avg
US Gasoline Demand (000 Bbl/d)
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Gasoline Stocks (000 Bbls)
250,000
9,850
235,000
9,350
220,000
8,850
205,000
8,350
7,850
190,000
Jan
Mar
May
2014
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
2014
5-yr Avg
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Stocks (000 Bbls)
US Distillate Demand (000 Bbl/d)
4,400
180,000
4,100
160,000
3,800
140,000
3,500
120,000
3,200
Jan
Mar
May
2014
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
100,000
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
2014
US Total Product Demand (000 Bbl/d)
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Total Product Stocks (000 Bbls)
1,200,000
21,000
1,150,000
20,000
19,000
1,100,000
18,000
1,050,000
17,000
1,000,000
Jan
Mar
May
2014
January 28, 2015
Jul
2015
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
Jan
Mar
May
2014
Jul
2015
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
Page 3 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Refinery Utilization
US Total Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD I Refinery Utilization (%)
100
100.0
95
90.0
90
80.0
85
70.0
80
75
60.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
'14
Jun Jul
'15
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
5-yr Avg
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'15
PADD III Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD II Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
Aug Sep Oct
Jan Feb
Nov Dec
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
'15
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'15
PADD V Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD IV Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
January 28, 2015
Aug Sep Oct
'15
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'15
Page 4 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
East Coast 6-3-2-1 (Brent + Freight)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$8.39
$7.46
$8.75
$9.31
QTD 15
$9.63
East Coast 6-3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Chicago 2-1-1 (WTI)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$21.18
$22.08
$20.55
$19.93
QTD 15
$11.27
'14
'15
Chicago 2-1-1
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 (LLS)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$10.86
$14.05
$12.11
$6.19
QTD 15
$8.74
'14
'15
Gulf Coast 3-2-1
$24.00
$18.00
$12.00
$6.00
$0.00
($6.00)
5-yr Range
January 28, 2015
'14
'15
Page 5 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
West Coast 5-3-2 (ANS cif W. Coast)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$14.00
$19.41
$16.85
$12.80
QTD 15
$11.11
West Coast 5-3-2
$42.50
$34.00
$25.50
$17.00
$8.50
$0.00
5-yr Range
NW Europe 2-1-1 (Brent)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$8.97
$11.54
$12.70
$11.21
QTD 15
$11.01
'14
'15
NW Europe 2-1-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Singapore 2-1-1 (Dubai)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$14.86
$13.88
$13.89
$15.22
QTD 15
$13.46
'14
'15
Singapore 2-1-1
$30.00
$24.00
$18.00
$12.00
$6.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
January 28, 2015
'14
'15
Page 6 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Maya
LLS- Maya
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
QTD 15
$15.17
$9.76
$10.09
$8.96
$9.40
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
'14
$3.73
$4.73
$3.70
$3.86
QTD 15
$4.05
5-yr Avg
LLS - Mars
LLS - Mars
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
'14
LLS - ANS
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
QTD 15
($1.52)
($4.05)
($1.24)
$1.58
$0.88
'15
5-yr Avg
LLS - ANS
$21
$14
$7
$0
($7)
($14)
'14
$5.84
$2.41
$3.43
$2.87
QTD 15
$1.38
5-yr Avg
LLS - WTI
LLS - WTI
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$32
$24
$16
$8
$0
($8)
'14
January 28, 2015
'15
5-yr Avg
Page 7 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Brent
LLS - Brent
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
QTD 15
$10
($3.51)
($4.35)
($0.94)
($0.30)
$5
$1.16
($5)
$0
($10)
($15)
'14
$9.35
$6.75
$4.37
$3.17
QTD 15
$0.23
5-yr Avg
Brent - WTI
Brent - WTI
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$32
$24
$16
$8
$0
($8)
'14
$5.45
$7.35
$8.86
$2.06
QTD 15
$2.08
5-yr Avg
WTI-WTS
WTI - WTS
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
($5)
'14
QTD 15
$12.95
$11.47
$10.81
$9.00
$5.89
5-yr Avg
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
'14
January 28, 2015
'15
'11-'14 Avg
Page 8 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
CFTC: Non-Commercial Positions
NYMEX WTI
NYMEX WTI: Open Interest vs. Price
Net Long (Short) Position
375,000
264,996 261,776
284,079 281,649 272,484 268,800 275,480 281,269
250,000
125,000
0
12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
1/9/15
1/16/15
$120.00
1.75
$95.00
1.5
$70.00
1.25
$45.00
1
$20.00
2010
1/23/15
20 11
2012
2013
Open Interest
NYMEX RBOB
2015
WTI
Net Long (Short) Position
Net Long (Short) Position
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
0
76,971
78,248
82,672
12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
77,522
78,352
68,060
72,965
50,000
25,000
0
January 28, 2015
1/2/15
1/9/15
1/16/15
1/9/15
1/16/15
1/23/15
(10,000)
(20,000)
(24,287)
(30,000)
(28,569) (28,613)
(28,973) (28,451)
(32,731)
12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
77,596
# of contracts
# of contracts
2014
NYMEX #2 Heating Oil
100,000
75,000
WTI ($/bbl)
# of contracts
500,000
Oil Open Interest (MM Contracts)
2
1 contract = 1,000 barrels
1/23/15
(28,723)
(31,669)
(40,000)
Page 9 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Shipping
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: CRUDE OIL
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: GASOLINE
WTI-Brent
(Net of Freight)
USAC-NWE
(Net of Freight)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
1/9/15
1/16/15
1/23/15
16.0
12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
$ per barrel
($1.00)
1/2/15
cents per gallon
$0.00
($0.87)
($1.43)
($2.00)
($1.28)
($1.88)
($3.00)
12.0
8.4
8.0
6.3
5.6
4.8
3.4
3.1
4.0
4.8
0.9
($3.12)
0.0
12/5/14
($4.00)
12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
1/9/15
1/16/15
1/23/15
Gulf Coast/Europe Arbitrage: ULSD
Persian Gulf-USGC: Freight Rate (250' dirty tanker)
USGC-NWE
Trailing 8 weeks
(Net of Freight)
$1.60
0.0
0.0
12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
0.0
0.0
0.0
1/9/15
1/16/15
1/23/15
(0.6)
(1.5)
(1.7)
(1.6)
$1.20
$ per barrel
cents per gallon
1.5
$1.05
$0.85
$0.92
$0.92
$0.85
$0.98
$0.98
1/16/15
1/23/15
$0.85
$0.80
$0.40
(3.0)
(3.0)
$0.00
12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
(4.5)
1/2/15
1/9/15
Total US Product Imports (000 Bbl/d)
Total US Product Exports (000 Bbl/d)
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Range
'14
1
4
'15
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Range
'14
'15
Note: Arb spread estimates provided above represent absolute values:
Positive #
Arb profit on NWE-sourced cargoes imported to U.S.
Negative #
Arb profit (ignore +/- sign) on U.S.-sourced cargoes exported to NWE
January 28, 2015
Page 10 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
WTI
BRENT
NYMEX WTI: 12-Month Strip
ICE Brent: 12-Month Strip
68
68
62
62
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
Energy Futures
56
50
44
CL2
CL3
1/2/2015
CL4
CL5
CL6
1/9/2015
CL7
CL8
CL9 CL10 CL11 CL12
1/16/2015
CO1
1/23/2015
CO2
CO3
1/2/2015
CO4
CO5
CO6
CO7
1/9/2015
CO8
RBOB
NYMEX RBOB: 12-Month Strip
ICE RBOB: 12-Month Strip
185
185
170
170
155
140
125
CO9 CO10 CO11 CO12
1/16/2015
RBOB
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
50
44
CL1
1/23/2015
155
140
125
XB1
XB2
XB3
1/2/2015
XB4
XB5
XB6
XB7
1/9/2015
XB8
XB9 XB10 XB11 XB12
1/16/2015
PG1
PG2
PG3
1/2/2015
1/23/2015
PG4
PG5
PG6
PG7
1/9/2015
PG8
PG9 PG10 PG11 PG12
1/16/2015
1/23/2015
#2 HEATING OIL
GASOIL
NYMEX #2 Oil: 12-Month Strip
ICE Gasoil: 12-Month Strip
200
200
185
185
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
56
170
155
140
170
155
140
HO1
HO2
HO3
1/2/2015
HO4
HO5
HO6
1/9/2015
HO7
HO8
HO9 HO10 HO11 HO12
1/16/2015
QS1
1/23/2015
QS2
QS3
1/2/2015
QS4
QS5
QS6
QS7
1/9/2015
QS8
QS9 QS10 QS11 QS12
1/16/2015
1/23/2015
3-2-1 REFINING MARGIN
2-1-1 REFINING MARGIN
NYMEX 3-2-1: 12-Month Strip
ICE 2-1-1: 12-Month Strip
25.00
25.00
19.00
19.00
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
13.00
7.00
1.00
13.00
7.00
1.00
1
2
1/2/2015
3
4
5
1/9/2015
6
7
8
9
1/16/2015
10
11
12
Avg.
1/23/2015
1
2
1/2/2015
3
4
5
6
1/9/2015
7
8
9
1/16/2015
10
11
12
Avg.
1/23/2015
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
January 28, 2015
Page 11 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Disclosures
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Scotia Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Analyst Certification
I, Blake Fernandez, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject securities or issuers; and I, Blake Fernandez, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.
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January 28, 2015
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