1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. natural gas

Morning report
Massive jump in Oil Prices
26 February 2015
Today’s Events
Today’s Investment Proposals / Recent Research
Company Figures / Events
Lerøy Seafood Group - 4Q14 Update - Target NOK 254 (290) – NEUTRAL: LSG reported 4Q14
op. EBIT well short of consensus, but in line with our estimates, at NOK 393m. A DPS of NOK 12 is
proposed (up from NOK 10 last year), which was disappointing compared to our expectation of NOK
20. Harvesting of 42.5’t was slightly below guidance, but in line with our expectations. Sjøtroll
(Hordaland), which just broke even, reported continued high cost, while the Russian import ban is
impacting price achievement for trout in particular. Even though management guided on positive
underlying development in Sjøtroll, it “will take some time before effects are evident in reported
figures”. On the positive side, Aurora (North) showed strong performance helped by lower cost Q/Q.
Mid Norway was OK and in line with estimates. Downstream numbers were decent, and the
company guides on continued positive development for both VAP and Sales & Distribution.
Norway: Aker Philadelphia Shipyard, Avance Gas
Holding, Cxense, Eidesvik Offshore, Höegh LNG
Holding, Hofseth BioCare, Indre Sogn Sparebank, Intex,
Itera, Medistim, NattoPharma, Nickel Mountain Group,
Nordic Financials, North Atlantic Drilling, Prospector
Offshore Drilling, RenoNorden, Repant, SalMar, Seadrill,
Sevan Drilling, Siem Offshore, Skue Sparebank, The
Scottish Salmon Company, Vardia Insurance Group,
Wenthworth Resources Limited, Wilson, Zalaris
Foreign: Sears, Seaworld
Exp. Time
US: CPI MoM / YoY
-0.6%/-0.1% 14:30
US: Durable Goods Orders
1.6% 14:30
US: Initial Jobless Claims
290K 14:30
US & overnight markets
In the absence of any major news flow, U.S.
stocks experienced another uneventful
trading session. Apple ended down 2.6% and
contributed to the marginal decline of the S&P
500 and Nasdaq Composite.
Key Indices
Foreign Exchange
Last
Dow Jones
18 224.57
S&P 500
2 113.86
Nasdaq Comp
4 967.14
Nikkei 225
18 751.9
Hong Kong
24 898.4
London FTSE 100
6 935.4
Frankfurt DAX
11 210.3
Stockholm OMX
1 678.7
Oslo OSEBX
617.5
VIX index
13.8
Oil prices jumped (WTI +3.5%; Brent 5.1%)
after market-close in Europe, despite US
crude inventories rising by 8.4 million barrels
(for the week ended Feb 20) versus an
expected 3.7 million barrels. Although the
market is still oversupplied, especially on the
demand side, a lack of downside risks have
lead many traders to believe the oil market
has formed a price bottom. Additionally, a
weakening USD provided support for dollardenominated oil prices.
%D
0.1 %
-0.1 %
0.0 %
0.9 %
0.5 %
-0.2 %
0.0 %
-0.3 %
0.5 %
1.1 %
%YTD
2.3 %
2.7 %
4.9 %
7.5 %
5.5 %
5.6 %
14.3 %
14.6 %
7.2 %
-27.9 %
%D
-0.9 %
0.4 %
5.1 %
3.5 %
2.2 %
3.4 %
-0.5 %
-1.1 %
-1.3 %
%YTD
-3.2 %
2.1 %
6.8 %
-5.1 %
6.6 %
5.7 %
-5.2 %
1.7 %
-2.4 %
1d
0.8 %
0.4 %
0.2 %
YTD
5.6 %
0.6 %
3.4 %
Commodities
Alu LME 3m
Gold
Brent 1m
WTI 1m
Henry Hub
UK Gas
Corn 1m
CO2
Nordpool spot (€)
Asian stocks rallied to a four-week high today
– driven by Chinese stimulus speculations.
Chinese authorities have signaled that they
will employ both fiscal stimulus and monetary
easing to fend of slowing inflation (est. at
1.3% in Q115 and 1.7% in 2015). The
rebound in oil prices provided a boost for the
Energy sector (+1.6%, NIKKEI).
EURUSD
EURJPY
USDJPY
USDCNY
GBPUSD
USDNOK
EURNOK
GBPNOK
SEKNOK
DKKNOK
Last
1.1367
135.24
118.97
6.26
1.55
7.54
8.57
11.72
0.91
1.15
%D
0.2 %
0.1 %
-0.1 %
0.1 %
0.5 %
-0.6 %
-0.4 %
-0.1 %
0.8 %
-0.5 %
%YTD
-6.0 %
-7.1 %
-0.7 %
0.9 %
0.2 %
1.1 %
-5.3 %
0.9 %
-5.0 %
-5.6 %
Last
1.35 %
0.04 %
0.26 %
1.37 %
0.33 %
1.96 %
1d
-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-5.0
-1.1
YTD
-13.0
-3.4
0.6
-17.0
-21.6
-21.5
1d
-1.6 %
-0.7 %
-0.3 %
YTD
-4.0 %
3.5 %
6.7 %
Fixed Income
Last
1 794.0
1 209.7
61.2
50.5
3.2
51.4
376.3
7.4
26.3
Nibor 3m
Euribor 3m
Libor 3m
Norway 10yr Govt.
EUR 10yr Govt.
USA 10yr Govt.
CDS 5yr HY
CDS 5yr IG
CDS 5yr fin.
S&P 500 Ranking
S&P 500 futures are up 0.095% this morning.
Top 3
Consumer Discretionary
Energy
Telecom Services
Bottom 3
Utilities
Information Technology
Materials
Se
FONDSFINANS AS, HAAKON VII’S GATE 2, P.O. BOX 1782 VIKA, NO-0122 OSLO, TEL: +47 23 11 30 00, FAX: +47 23 11 30 03, [email protected]
See important disclosures on last page.
10 ENERGY
Close
%D
% YTD
20 INDUSTRIALS
Close
%D
% YTD
35 HEALTH CARE
Philadelphia Oil Services
Drilling
Awilco Drilling *
Fred.Olsen Energy *
Seadrill *
Sevan Drilling *
Songa Offshore *
Odfjell Drilling
Atwood Oceanics Inc.
Diamond Offshore Drilling
Ensco
Noble Corp.
Ocean Rig
Pacific Drilling
Rowan
Transocean
North Atlantic Drilling
200.9
0.2 %
-4.7 %
83.5
64.5
88.3
0.65
1.57
8.3
31.8
30.2
26.6
17.8
8.3
3.6
21.6
16.0
1.7
3.7 %
-1.3 %
-1.6 %
-8.5 %
1.3 %
-6.3 %
-0.3 %
-1.9 %
-1.4 %
0.0 %
3.0 %
2.3 %
-6.0 %
0.6 %
1.8 %
7.1 %
-5.4 %
2.1 %
-39.3 %
6.1 %
-37.4 %
12.2 %
-17.7 %
-11.3 %
7.6 %
-10.8 %
-22.4 %
-7.5 %
-12.5 %
-80.5 %
S&P Europe 350 Capital Goods
AF Gruppen *
Goodtech *
Kongsberg Gruppen *
Selvaag Bolig *
Tomra *
Veidekke *
ABB
Lockheed Martin
NCC
Northrop Grumman
PEAB
Skanska
2 126.4
91.0
10.1
142.0
26.4
68.5
90.0
177.9
204.9
292.9
168.7
70.7
207.9
0.0 %
0.0 %
-1.5 %
-1.7 %
1.5 %
0.4 %
0.6 %
-1.4 %
-0.9 %
0.3 %
-0.9 %
0.4 %
0.2 %
14.4 %
15.2 %
-15.8 %
15.4 %
31.3 %
19.1 %
22.0 %
7.2 %
6.4 %
18.7 %
14.4 %
28.7 %
23.8 %
Nasdaq Biotech
FTSE Mediscience
Amgen
Medwell Capital
Qiagen
Bloomberg Europe Airlines
Norwegian Air Shuttle *
easyJet
Ryanair
SAS
126.3
240.2
1813.0
10.03
17.00
-0.1 %
0.1 %
0.8 %
0.7 %
2.4 %
1.1 %
-13.0 %
8.5 %
6.2 %
18.9 %
Equipment & Services
Aker Solutions *
Archer *
BW Offshore *
Deep Sea Supply *
Kvaerner ASA*
Petroleum Geo-Services *
Prosafe *
Polarcus *
Sevan*
Siem Offshore *
Spectrum *
Subsea 7 *
Subsea 7 (USA: NOK) *
TGS-Nopec *
Baker Hughes
Cameron
CGGVeritas
FMC Technologies
Halliburton
Saipem
SBM
Schlumberger
Technip
XOI
S&P 500 O&G Exploration & Prod
The Stoxx European E&P
Det Norske Oljeselskap *
DNO *
Noreco *
Questerre Energy *
Questerre Energy (Canada; NOK) *
Statoil *
BP
BG Group
Marathon Oil
PA Resources
Total
S&P Global Clean Energy
World Solar Energy
Hafslund *
REC *
REC Solar
First Solar
Fortum
GCL-Poly
LDK Solar
43.1
2.53
6.31
4.05
7.9
44.2
23.9
0.58
18.5
2.01
31.3
77.2
76.6
183.9
63.7
48.0
5.8
41.0
43.7
9.1
10.5
85.2
58.9
-3.5 %
-6.6 %
-4.8 %
0.2 %
-0.5 %
-2.0 %
-2.8 %
-3.3 %
-1.6 %
2.6 %
1.6 %
-1.0 %
-0.4 %
0.4 %
1.0 %
0.5 %
-4.9 %
-0.7 %
1.3 %
-2.0 %
-0.3 %
-0.1 %
-0.4 %
3.8 %
-37.4 %
-16.0 %
-23.4 %
-10.9 %
4.4 %
3.9 %
-7.9 %
-7.5 %
-50.2 %
6.1 %
0.8 %
-1.1 %
13.7 %
13.6 %
-4.0 %
16.3 %
-12.6 %
11.1 %
4.1 %
6.9 %
-0.2 %
19.2 %
1397.1
561.9
318.5
39.0
15.02
1.27
2.38
2.43
145.0
449.4
985.0
29.1
1.54
47.4
0.2 %
1.1 %
0.0 %
3.0 %
8.7 %
0.0 %
-1.2 %
1.3 %
0.2 %
0.2 %
0.4 %
0.8 %
-2.5 %
0.3 %
3.6 %
3.1 %
12.0 %
-2.3 %
-6.0 %
27.0 %
-5.9 %
0.0 %
10.5 %
9.3 %
13.9 %
2.7 %
36.3 %
11.4 %
696.4
0.8 %
11.5 %
200.3
0.5 %
22.2 %
57.5
-0.4 %
12.7 %
2.34
3.3 %
31.2 %
100.50
-1.0 %
-1.5 %
58.5
7.0 %
31.3 %
20.3
-0.6 %
12.7 %
1.80
1.7 %
0.0 %
#N/A N/A #VALUE! #VALUE!
15 MATERIALS
Close
%D
% YTD
BE 500 Metals & Mining
Norsk Hydro *
Alcoa
BHP Billiton
Chalco
Rio Tinto
Rusal
393.9
44.3
15.00
33.6
3.71
63.7
5.76
0.2 %
0.9 %
-4.7 %
0.2 %
2.2 %
0.2 %
0.2 %
10.5 %
4.3 %
-5.0 %
14.3 %
3.3 %
9.8 %
10.3 %
BE 500 Chemical
Yara *
Agrium
CF Industries
K+S
Mosaic
Potash Corp.
346.5
435.6
115.9
307.2
28.8
53.6
36.8
0.1 %
1.0 %
1.8 %
-1.5 %
-0.4 %
0.7 %
0.1 %
17.1 %
30.5 %
22.3 %
12.7 %
25.5 %
17.3 %
4.3 %
BE 500 Paper & Forest
Norske Skog *
StoraEnso
UPM Kymmene
207.9
5.99
8.70
16.91
0.2 %
-1.8 %
-1.2 %
-0.8 %
26.8 %
56.0 %
17.0 %
24.2 %
S&P 500 Specialty Chemicals
Borregaard *
Rayonier
991.2
50.0
18.6
0.2 %
-0.5 %
-1.5 %
7.0 %
-9.9 %
-16.7 %
Bloomberg Tanker Index
Bloomberg Dry Ships Index
Baltic Dry Index
Diversified, Containers, Liners
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA *
WW Holding A*
WW Holding B*
A.P Møller Maersk (DKK)
Glovis Co Ltd. (KRW)
Oil Tankers
Frontline *
Frontline (USA; NOK)
Frontline 2012 *
Euronav
Nordic American Tankers
Scorpio Tankers
Ship Finance
Teekay
Tsakos Energy Navigation
221.9
731.2
524.0
0.9 %
-0.1 %
1.6 %
-9.6 %
-0.8 %
-33.0 %
44.6
0.9 %
-3.0 %
159.0
0.6 %
-6.5 %
158.0
2.6 %
-3.7 %
15 260
9.5 %
23.4 %
#N/A Invalid#VALUE!
Security #VALUE!
18.1
18.3
39.4
10.88
10.21
8.46
15.3
44.7
7.58
-2.7 %
-3.7 %
-0.8 %
-3.2 %
1.0 % #VALUE!
-0.5 %
4.9 %
1.6 %
1.4 %
3.3 %
-2.6 %
-0.1 %
8.6 %
0.9 % -12.2 %
0.9 %
8.6 %
Dry Bulks
Golden Ocean *
Jinhui Shipping *
Comp. Maritime Belgique
D/S Norden
Dryships
Pacific Basin Shipping
5.37
12.20
13.8
155.0
1.02
2.84
-1.1 %
-0.8 %
-0.4 %
0.8 %
4.1 %
-1.7 %
13.3 %
1.2 %
-9.9 %
18.0 %
-3.8 %
-9.3 %
Chemicals, LNG & LPG
Höegh LNG *
Odfjell *
Stolt-Nielsen *
Exmar
Golar LNG
Solvang
BW LPG
89.5
21.9
125.0
9.45
32.2
24.0
59.0
2.6 %
-0.9 %
0.0 %
1.4 %
3.0 %
0.0 %
-0.5 %
8.8 %
-24.0 %
0.0 %
-8.3 %
-11.7 %
6.7 %
12.5 %
25 CONS. DISCRETIONARY
Close
%D
% YTD
Bloomberg US Retail
Ekornes *
Hennes & Mauritz
Home Depot
284.5
89.5
364.0
116.3
0.3 %
-1.6 %
-0.2 %
-0.4 %
3.8 %
-5.8 %
11.8 %
10.8 %
S&P Euro 350 Hotels & Leisure
RCCL *
RCCL (USA; NOK)
Carnival
2 116.5
585.5
584.8
43.9
0.0 %
0.7 %
0.9 %
0.7 %
11.7 %
-5.3 %
-5.9 %
-3.2 %
BE 500 Media
Schibsted *
Axel Springer
Rightmove (GBp)
144.9
451.8
57.2
2647.0
0.1 %
1.8 %
-0.1 %
0.3 %
15.9 %
-4.6 %
14.2 %
17.7 %
30 CONSUMER STAPLES
S&P Euro 350 Consumer Staples
Carrefour
Wal-Mart
S&P 500 Food, Bev & Tobacco
DJ Euro Food & Beverage
Austevoll Seafood *
Bakkafrost *
Domstein *
Grieg Seafood *
Havfisk *
Lerøy *
Marine Harvest *
Marine Harvest US (USD)
Norway Royal Salmon *
Orkla *
Salmar *
Scottish Salmon *
Nutreco (EUR)
Close
%D
% YTD
3 222.3
29.2
83.6
-0.4 %
-0.8 %
-1.2 %
14.4 %
15.6 %
-2.7 %
583.5
575.7
44.8
169.5
-0.2 %
-0.4 %
-0.4 %
5.3 %
3.9 %
14.9 %
-3.7 %
1.2 %
#N/A N/A #VALUE! #VALUE!
26.9
-0.4 %
-5.6 %
22.50
6.6 %
48.0 %
256.0
-3.4 %
-6.2 %
97.05
3.2 %
-4.5 %
12.85
3.4 %
n.a.
60.0
7.1 %
-7.3 %
61.1
1.7 %
19.4 %
114.5
0.4 % -10.2 %
4.80
1.1 %
3.7 %
45.2
0.2 %
1.6 %
Close
%D
% YTD
3551.3
9 349.3
158.1
0.62
24.9
1.3 %
-1.0 %
0.5 %
0.0 %
0.2 %
11.8 %
1.6 %
-0.8 %
88.6 %
6.1 %
Bloomberg US Pharma
Bloomberg Euro Pharma
Biotec Pharmacon *
Bionor Pharma *
PCI Biotech *
Photocure *
AstraZeneca
GlaxoSmithKline
Merck
Pfizer
160.6
162.9
15.90
2.45
12.9
34.5
45.0
15.5
58.5
34.7
0.1 %
0.1 %
0.0 %
-5.8 %
8.4 %
-2.0 %
-0.1 %
-0.1 %
0.2 %
0.9 %
5.3 %
6.5 %
-10.2 %
5.6 %
15.5 %
25.5 %
-1.2 %
12.3 %
3.0 %
11.3 %
40 FINANCIALS
Close
%D
% YTD
398.0
111.1
1091.8
126.5
99.5
39.8
60.0
56.0
54.0
231.0
16.5
174.6
28.9
577.4
236.1
61.1
111.7
103.6
408.4
214.5
0.3 %
-0.9 %
0.0 %
0.6 %
0.5 %
0.8 %
0.0 %
1.8 %
0.5 %
-1.1 %
0.7 %
-1.2 %
-1.1 %
-0.7 %
0.3 %
0.5 %
-1.2 %
-0.4 %
-0.3 %
0.0 %
-2.6 %
7.4 %
3.7 %
14.3 %
-4.3 %
-0.3 %
2.6 %
6.7 %
6.9 %
6.9 %
-7.8 %
4.3 %
15.7 %
-5.1 %
1.8 %
-2.3 %
22.9 %
4.1 %
11.4 %
9.7 %
BE 500 Insurance
Gjensidige*
Storebrand *
Sampo
Topdanmark
166.9
133.6
27.2
44.8
224.4
0.4 %
1.1 %
0.4 %
0.2 %
0.3 %
12.3 %
9.5 %
-7.0 %
15.4 %
12.1 %
45 INFORMATION TECHN.
Close
%D
% YTD
S&P 500 System Software
BE 500 Computer Services
Evry *
Atea *
Opera Software *
Google
IBM
Microsoft
Oracle
SAP
TietoEnator
1 038.6
94.9
15.90
85.5
59.1
547.3
162.8
44.0
43.7
61.7
23.7
-0.1 %
-0.6 %
-2.5 %
0.6 %
-1.3 %
1.6 %
-1.2 %
-0.2 %
-0.3 %
0.0 %
0.2 %
-4.0 %
8.5 %
0.0 %
11.0 %
-37.8 %
3.1 %
1.5 %
-5.3 %
-2.8 %
5.9 %
10.2 %
S&P 500 Tech HW & Equipm
Eltek *
Q-Free *
Apple
Cisco Systems
Facebook
Twitter
HP
Nokia
Samsung Elec.(KOR; NOK)
805.1
11.55
12.8
128.8
29.5
79.6
48.6
34.7
8.02
9471.7
-2.1 %
-0.4 %
4.5 %
-2.6 %
-0.5 %
1.4 %
-0.3 %
-9.9 %
0.1 %
0.0 %
8.0 %
-0.4 %
27.5 %
16.7 %
6.0 %
2.0 %
35.3 %
-13.6 %
2.0 %
3.9 %
Philadelphia Semiconductor
Nordic Semiconductor *
Advanced Micro Devices
Intel
Texas Instruments
712.0
53.5
3.10
33.9
59.1
-0.6 %
-4.5 %
-0.3 %
-1.4 %
0.2 %
3.7 %
13.3 %
16.1 %
-6.5 %
10.5 %
50 TELECOM
Close
%D
% YTD
S&P 500 Integrated Tel Srvcs
BE 500 Telecom Service
Telenor *
Deutsche Telekom
Digi
Grameenphone
TAC
Telefonica
Tele2
TeliaSonera
Vimpelcom
Vodafone
163.5
186.6
152.0
16.14
6.43
337.0
86.3
13.8
97.1
52.3
5.1
223.7
0.2 %
0.2 %
-0.3 %
0.5 %
0.2 %
0.0 %
0.9 %
0.0 %
0.2 %
0.2 %
6.7 %
-1.2 %
3.2 %
13.3 %
0.3 %
21.8 %
4.2 %
-6.9 %
-10.6 %
15.8 %
2.2 %
3.7 %
22.9 %
0.5 %
S&P 500 Diversified Banks
BE 500 Bank & Fin Svcs
Norwegian PCC index *
DNB *
Sandnes Sparebank *
Sparebank 1 Nord Norge *
Sparebank 1 SMN *
Sparebank 1 SR Bank *
Sparebanken Vest *
Sparebanken Møre *
Bank of America
Danske Bank
Deutsche Bank
HSBC Holdings (GBp)
Intrum Justitia
JP Morgan Chase
Nordea
SE Banken
Svenska Handelsbanken
Swedbank
Companies with (*) traded on Oslo Stock Exchange. GICS-based groups.
DISCLAIMER
This report is provided for information purposes only. It should not be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without prior notice. This report is based on information from various sources believed to be reliable. Although all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information
herein is not misleading, Fondsfinans AS makes no representation or warranty expressed or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither Fondsfinans AS, its partners and employees, nor any other person connected with it, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use or reliance on the information in this report.
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