august 2015 - SKAGEN Fondene
SKAGEN m2 Statusrapport – august 2015 Hovedtrekk – august 2015 • SKAGEN m2 falt 4,0 prosent i august og tapte terreng til referanseindeksen. Det var en svært volatil måned med kontinuerlig uro rundt det kinesiske aksjemarkedet. Hovedgrunnen var utsikter til lavere økonomisk vekst samt frykt forbundet med valuta. I tillegg trakk det vedvarende fallet i råvarepriser med seg både aksjekursene og valutaene til vekstmarkedene nedover til nye bunnivåer. • Det beste markedet i august var Tyskland. Blant de svakeste var Brasil, Indonesia, Kina og Thailand. • Vår beste aksje var greske Grivalia, som gjorde det godt i løpet av måneden. Amerikanske Ashford har også kommet seg etter en svak juli og var nummer to på listen over beste bidragsytere. Den svakeste bidragsyteren var Soho China etter negative nyheter om endret utbytte og mindre utleie enn forventet. Shangri-La i Hong Kong faltkraftig i løpet av måneden. Det samme gjorde indonesiske Bekasi – på dårligere utsikter for utenlandske direkteinvesteringer. Den dårligere utviklingen for alle de nevnte selskapene ble ytterligere forsterket av svake aksje og valutamarkeder. • Vi solgte oss ut av British Land på grunn av prisingen. Selskapet handles til rundt 30 ganger inntjeningen (før nedskrivninger), noe som betyr netto FFO yield på 3,6 prosent. Vi solgte oss også ut av Ticon Industrial, som driver med industrieiendom i Thailand. Selskapets har en svak forretningsmodell og selskapet har ikke klart å fylle på med nye leietagere når andre har flyttet ut. • De 10 og 353 største postene utgjør respektive 41 prosent of 88 prosent av fondet. SKAGEN m2 var ved utgangen av måneden 50 poster og 0,9 prosent i kontanter. * Med mindre annet er oppgitt er alle avkastningstall for fondet i denne rapporten knyttet til klasse A, og etter fradrag for gebyrer. 2 Avkastning, august 2015 A August SKAGEN m2 A MSCI ACWI Real Estate Relativ avkastning QTD -4,0% -3,1% -0,9% Note: Alle tall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) * Startdato: 31. oktober 2012 3 Hittil i år 0,5% 2,3% -1,8% Siden start* 0,4% 5,9% -5,5% 14,0% 20,7% -6,8% Markedsutvikling i august i NOK (%) Tyskland Frankrike Japan Sør-Afrika UK MSCI Eiendomsindeks Thailand USA SKAGEN M2 Canada Verdensindeksen Australia Philippinene Vekstmarksindeksen Norge Singapore Tyrkia Kina (Hong Kong) Kina (lokal) India Hong Kong Indonesia Brasil 4 6 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -10 -10 -10 -11 -11 -16 Markedsutvikling hittil i år i NOK (%) 21 UK 18 Tyskland 15 Philippinene 13 Japan 12 Frankrike 10 Kina (Hong Kong) 9 Sør-Afrika 8 Verdensindeksen 6 MSCI Eiendomsindeks 5 Australia 4 USA 3 Norge SKAGEN M2 0 Kina (lokal) 0 -1 Hong Kong -2 Singapore -3 Vekstmarksindeksen -4 Canada -8 Thailand Indonesia India Tyrkia 5 -13 -14 -14 Største bidragsytere i august 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Største negative bidragsytere NOK (000) Selskap NOK (000) Deutsche Wohnen 2 884 ##### SOHO China -11 069 Ashford Inc 2 482 ##### Shangri-La Asia -5 180 Grivalia Properties 2 014 ##### Columbia Property Trust -3 872 CA Immobilien Anlagen 1 373 ##### Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate -3 728 Dic Asset 1 174 ##### Ashford Hospitality Trust -3 193 Axia Real Estate 783 ##### Brandywine Realty Trust -2 882 HCP Inc 662 ##### BR Properties -2 827 British Land 611 ##### Vista Land & Lifescapes -2 327 Melia Hotels 566 ##### First Real Estate Investment Trust -2 192 Atrium Ljungberg 492 ##### SM Prime Holdings -2 180 Total verdiskapning i august 2015: Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 6 NOK -47 millioner Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Største negative bidragsytere NOK (000) Selskap NOK (000) Melia Hotels International 10 891 # Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate -15 281 Deutsche Wohnen AG 7 449 # SOHO China Ltd -11 594 Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd 7 245 # BR Malls Participacoes SA -7 110 British Land Co PLC 6 239 # Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc -6 140 Westgrund AG 5 460 # Brandywine Realty Trust -5 902 SM Prime Holdings Inc 4 586 # CBL & Associates Properties Inc -5 232 Apartment Investment & Managem 4 081 # Shangri-La Asia Ltd -5 059 Mercialys SA 3 856 # Ticon Industrial Connection PC -4 390 Olav Thon Eindom A/S 3 520 # Emlak -4 040 Dic Asset AG 2 773 # General Shopping Brasil SA -4 026 Total verdiskapning hittil i 2015: Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 7 NOK -9 millioner Største bidragsytere i august 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap NOK (000) Solid første halvår Deutsche Wohnen 2 884 Ashford Inc 2 482 Ingen spesifikke nyheter Grivalia Properties 2 014 Selskapet fortsetter å kjøpe tilbake aksjer CA Immobilien Anlagen 1 373 Sterke resultater og økte utbytter Dic Asset 1 174 Resultat bekreftet at selskapet levere i henhold til plan Axia Real Estate SOCIMI 783 Spania er i bedring HCP Inc 662 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter British Land 611 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Melia Hotels International 566 Atrium Ljungberg 492 Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 8 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Største bidragsytere i august 2015 Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK (000) Endret utbytte og mindre utleie enn forventet SOHO China -11 069 Shangri-La Asia -5 180 Columbia Property Trust -3 872 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate -3 728 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Ashford Hospitality Trust -3 193 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Brandywine Realty Trust -2 882 BR Properties -2 827 Vista Land & Lifescapes -2 327 First Real Estate Investment Trust -2 192 SM Prime Holdings -2 180 Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 9 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Solgte aktiva på bunnen av syklusen Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter Viktigste endringer hittil i 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Shangri-La Asia HCP Ashford Hospitality Trust SOHO China Mitsui Fudosan Global Logistic Properties Olav Thon (Ny) Axia Real Estate Keck Seng Investments Grivalia Properties Olav Thon CBL Properties Deutsche Wohnen (Ny) (Ny) (Ny) ADLER Real Estate AG (acquired Wesground) Ashford Hospitality Prime (Spinn off from Ashford Trust) IRSA Global Logistic Properties CBL Properties Capitaland Columbia Property Trust Mitsui Fudosan Dic Asset 10 Q2 (Ny) Q3 (Ny) Keppel Land Lexington Realty Trust Unibail-Rodamco Citycon CSI Properties (Ut) (Ut) Shimao Property China South City Citycon Hovnanian CSI Properties Melia Hotels International Ticon Industrial Mapletree Logistics Trust BR Malls (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) British Land (Ut) Westgrund AG (acquired by Adler) (Ut) Mapletree Logistics Trust Affine Ticon Industrial (Ut) PS Business Parks Inc Apartment Investment & Man Deutsche Wohnen Brandywine Realty Trust PS Business Parks CA Immobillien General Growth Største kjøp og salg, august 2015 Kjøp IRSA • Økt litt på etter salg av andre vekstmarkedsselskaper Global Logistic Properties • Økt posisjon etter korreksjon Salg British Land • Solgt på grunn av prising Affine • Svak utvikling. Overheng fra konvertible obligasjon. Mapletree Logistic Trust • Redusert litt Ticon Industrial • Solgt på grunn av forretningsmodell 11 Største poster i SKAGEN m2 pr. 31. august 2015 Holding size P/NAV last Div. Yield 2015e EBITDA 2015e/EV HCP Inc 4,8% 37,5 114% 6,3% 6.4% Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd 4,6% 3360 105% 0,8% 5,0% Global Logistic Properties Ltd 4,5% 2,22 90% 2,7% 4,8% Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA 4,5% 146 80% 1,1% 7.0% Columbia Property Trust Inc 4,4% 21,77 70% 5,5% 6,6% General Growth Properties Inc 4,2% 25,94 90% 2,8% 5,7% Ashford Hospitality Trust 3,8% 7,81 70% 6,1% 9,4% SL Green Realty Corp 3,6% 105,86 95% 2.3% 4,9% CBL & Associates Properties Inc 3,3% 15,13 65% 7.0% 8,9% Brandywine Realty Trust 3,3% 12,35 75% 4,9% 7,6% 87% 3.8% 6.5% 3.4% 6.7% Weighted top 10 40.9% Weighted top 35 88% Benchmark 12 Price 3.5%actual Geografisk fordeling vs. referanseindeksen august 2015 (%) 54 Fond Indeks 35 20 18 17 13 12 7 6 3 0 Asia DM 13 Asia EM Europe Europe DM ekskl. EM Norden 5 3 2 0 Frontier Markets 1 2 0 Latin Midtøsten Nord Amerika og Afrika Amerika 0 Oceania 1 1 0 Norden Kontanter Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper – på engelsk Key earnings releases and corporate news Mitsui Fudosan, Japan (4,6%) Deutsche Wohnen, Germany (3,0%) SOHO, China (2,4%) 15 In the sweet spot of RE recovery, strong 1Q FY3/16 numbers Implications for the investment case: Positive. Our Japanese integrated RE company Mitsui Fudosan is currently taking advantage of the good conditions in the present RE markets in Japan. Company´s diversified and flexible business model supports the strong growth and result. The segments; investment properties, trading and management currently allows Mitsui to benefit from the strength in both leasing markets and asset revaluations. NAV will continue to grow by continuous strong leasing business, new leasing cash flow from new completed buildings. Company will likely beat FY guidance on the back of strong pre sales and leasing numbers, we would not be surprised to see a hike in guidance within 6 months. 1H15 Strong NAV development, increased guidance for FY15 implies strong rental growth Implications for the investment case: Positive. Our German residential holding, increased guidance for 2015, which implies strong 3% L-f-L (like-for-like) rental growth for 2015. DW’s capital value growth clearly reflected its urban exposure (DW reported 9.2% capital value growth for Berlin region where yield have compressed by 50bps to 5.7%). With transaction yields in Berlin between 4% and 5%, there is likely more capital value growth in the cards. Management continues to seek acquisitions, with capacity to acquire of EUR 1bn without additional equity, but sees a lot of pricing as too demanding (proven by the failed bid of Conwert), we like this cautious stance. Good chance to beat company guidance this year. 1H15 Announced negative change in dividend policy Implications for the investment case: Negative news amplified by overall Chinese stock market turmoil. The Beijing and Shanghai focused commercial operator SOHO reported sharp earnings fall due to the transition from developer to landlord, however this was no big surprise since it has been communicated a long time. What was negative and unexpected was the change in the stable dividend policy (future dividend will be based on its net profit) implemented in 2011, a fixed level during the transition period. Occupancy is on its way in new built facilities which is positive driving up margins (higher on leases than development) but leasing development is to slow and hurts the cash flow, hence make it hard to sustain dividend over time. Company has already covered coming (to 2018) construction capex to end of development which mitigates the risk. Pressure on leasing levels and increased vacancy on economic downturn if risks that has to be monitored. Positive was new co-working platform that is expanding fast, could be interesting over time. Company is now trading at deep discount on net asset level. Assets are very well located and of high quality. Key earnings releases and corporate news General Growth Properties (3.9 %) - The company: US prime Mall owner Results in line, refinanced debt at significantly lower interest level, strong cash generation. Melia Hotels, Spain (1.9%) - The company: Spanish hotel owner and operator company with global presence Results clearly above, NAV increased significantly, strong Spanish urban results. Significant discount. - The company: US residential owner, turnaround story since the financial crisis. Results in line or slightly above, healthy performance and confirm the transition process coming to an end. - Apartment Investment Company (3.2%) Colombia Property Trust (4.2%) - The company: US office owner, transition from private to public and external to internal management tranforms its portfolio from sub to CBD. Results in line, trading at a significant discount > 20 %, continues its transformation process. CBL Properties (2.9%) - The company: B/C mall owner, most hated company with higher debt level than peers Results in line, trading at a significant discount > 20 %, initiate $200m buybacks - The comapny: Office, CBD Paris, increasing its focus to pure office. Results slightly above, increased guidance, a lot of investments, will sell more assets in 2h Gecina (1.4%) 16 Key earnings releases and corporate news PS Business Parks (3.4%) - - The company: Buy distressed assets to turnaround with the strongest balance sheet in US, nearly all capital permanent (equity or preferred) Results: clearly above expectations, sees hardly any distressed assets to buy, forced to increase dividend due to increased income, consider use of capital including buybacks Entra (0.9%) - The company: Norwegian office, mainly public or public owned tenants Results: clearly above expectations, NAV increased significantly, strong Spanish urban results. Significant discount. Brandywine (3.4%) - The company: Sub US office owner in some main gateways. Resuts: in line, trading at a significant discount, initiate buybacks British Land (2.7%) - The company: London focused retail and office, owner and developer. Results: in line. 17 The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of August 15 General Growth Properties (GGP), founded in 1954, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, leases, manages and develops shopping centers. The company is the second largest mall operator in the world. The company holds interests in 120 malls, 7 office properties and 6 other properties , generating an average of USD 564 in tenant sales per square foot (malls). Brandywine Realty Trust is a self-administered, self-managed and fully integrated real estate investment trust. The Company is engaged in the ownership, management, leasing, acquisition, and development of primarily suburban office properties. It also owns an interest in and operates a commercial real estate management services company. 209 buildings of total 24.1m sqf (2.1m m2). 182 office, 19 industrial and 5 mixed use in addition to 4 redevelopment / use properties. They are also part of 19 unconsolidated JVs. Established in 1941, Mitsui Fudosan has been an active leader in the Japanese RE industry, successfully developing new business opportunities and establishing an dominant position. The company is an integrated RE firm involved in office leasing, commercial facilities, condominium development, investment property development and REITS. 8% of MF´s assets are located on other continents. Strong balance sheet after capitalization (first in 23 years) in summer 2014. Good integrated and balanced growth model with development and investment properties diversified among different RE sub segments. Management business (car park leasing, property management) provides stable earnings growth over time, in addition to other recurring earnings from commercial assets, to balance the volatility in the development segment. HCP is a fully integrated self- administered real estate investment trust that acquires, manages, and invests in health care (largest sector of the U.S. economy in rel. to GDP) real estate located in the US and Mexico. HCP is well diversified across healthcare property types: senior housing (35% of NOI), skilled-nursing facilities (31%), medical office (13%), life science/labs (15%), and hospitals (6%). HCP has USD 22 bn in AUM, a well balanced portfolio of 1163 properties. Company has generated ~16% compound annual return since IPO 1985, and have 29 years of consecutive dividend growth. Ashford Hospitality Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investing opportunistically in the hospitality industry across all segments and at all levels of the capital structure primarily within the United States. Invests opportunistically in the whole capital structure including lending to other hotel owners. Ashford Hospitality Trust owns 115 hotels (directly and in JV with Prudential). 18 The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of August 15 (cont.) GLP is Asia's largest provider of modern logistics facilities. The company owns, manages and leases over 700 completed properties spread across 77 cities in China, Japan, Brazil and US forming an efficient network with assets strategically located in key hubs, industrial zones and urban distribution centers. The USD 27bn property portfolio comprises of 28 million sqm serving more than 800 customers. The Japan portfolio is mostly completed and stabilized providing strong operating cash flow to fund the group's growing business in China. The company also set up a China fund at the end of 2013 to enable recycling in the Chinese market in line with the Japanese model. This business model leads to a more effective capital structure, recurring income and capital recycling (listing of J-REIT & CLF fund) SL Green Realty Corp. is a fully integrated, self-administered and self-managed REIT. The company is focused on owning and operating office buildings in Manhattan. It owns equity or debt in 92 properties totaling 41.6 m SF, of which it owns equity (~82 %) in 29m SF and the rest is collateral for debt investments. SL Green provides debt financing, in many cases to achieve properties. In addition to Manhattan, they also have interest in suburban areas to Manhattan. (5.3 m SF) Manhattan occ. Of 95.9 % compared to 83.5 % (1q15) in suburban areas. Olav Thon owns a portfolio of 65 shopping malls and manage in addition 27 malls for external owners. In addition the company owns office buildings, restaurants and hotels (2; NOT Thon Hotels) located primarily in the Oslo area. 76 % of income from malls; 24 % from commercial real estate, mainly office/retail. Listed on Oslo Børs in 1983. Gross (inclusive JV) lettable space: Shopping malls: 1.0’’m2 and commercial estate 263’m2. Diversified into Sweden in 3q14 after buying 5 shopping malls of 122’m2 for NOK3b. CBL, founded in 1978 and listed in 1992, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, leases, manages, and develops shopping centers. The company held interests in 147 building, including 89 malls plus 30 adjacent associated center, four outlet centers, 10 community centers and 12 office buildings, generating an average of $360 in tenant sales per square foot (malls). Columbia Property Trust, Inc. focuses on the acquisition, development, ownership, leasing, and operation of office properties. Own 59 office buildings, total 16.5m sqf (1.6m m2) valued at $5.1b. The company was listed without any equity issue in oct.13 to provide liquidity for shareholders. Bought back shares during 4q after listing. Core focus is 16 main cities throughout US. 50 % CBD and 50 suburban exposure. Occupancy 92 % Financial, 91 % physical. From external managed to internal management. 19 Ønsker du mer informasjon? Se vår siste markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN m2 på våre hjemmesider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved tegning og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.
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