1. real estate

SKAGEN m2
Statusrapport – juni 2015
Hovedtrekk – juni 2015
• SKAGEN m2 var ned 4,5 prosent i juni, mens MSCI sin eiendomsindeks var ned 3,3 prosent. Måneden var volatil som
følge av de pågående forhandlingene om Hellas og korreksjonen ble forsterket mot slutten av måneden.
• Vi solgte oss ut av 2 selskaper i juni. Det amerikanske boligbyggerselskapet, Hovnanian, ble solgt etter nok et skuffende
kvartal. Vi solgte oss også ut av General Shopping pga. valutagjeld de ikke klarer å håndtere. Vi frykter at de vil være
nødt til å selge eiendommer på en måte som ikke er bærekraftig for å kunne betale renter og kommende låneforfall.
Shimao Property ble solgt siden vi ikke lenger tror at de kan levere på våre triggere innen en fornuftig tidsramme. Vi har
også vært bekymret for den ekstreme oppgangen i aksjemarkedet i Kina som kan ha smitteeffekt på Hong Kong noterte
selskaper som Shimao.
• De beste bidragsyterne i juni var våre to spanske selskaper, Melia Hote og Axia. Melia kom med gode resultater i mai og
fortsatte oppgangen i juni, mens Axia hadde en liten gjenhenting etter en aksjeutvidelse som doblet selskapets market
cap.
• De svakeste bidragsyterne i juni var vårt greske innehav, Grivalia som følge av de pågående forhandlingene og en mulig
Grexit. Bekasi Fajar var ned også i juni, hovedsakelig som følge av den negative salgs guidance de annonserte for hele
2015. I tillegg har den pågående skatteimplementeringen av luksusboliger påvirket hele det indonesiske
eiendomsmarkedet negativt. Men Bekasi Fajar er ikke påvirket av de nye skattelovene.
• Det beste markedet i juni var Sør Afrika. De svakeste markedene var India og Indonesia.
• De 10 største postene er nå 38 prosent av porteføljen. SKAGEN m 2 består nå av 51 poster og har 1 prosent i kontanter.
* Med mindre annet er oppgitt er alle avkastningstall for fondet i denne rapporten knyttet til klasse A, og etter fradrag for gebyrer.
2
Avkastning, juni 2015
A
Juni
SKAGEN m2 A
MSCI ACWI Real Estate
Relativ avkastning
QTD
-4,5%
-3,3%
-1,3%
Note: Alle tall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning)
* Startdato: 31. oktober 2012
3
Hittil i år
-10,7%
-7,9%
-2,8%
Siden start*
-0,1%
3,5%
-3,6%
14,7%
21,1%
-6,4%
Markedsutvikling i juni i NOK (%)
Thailand
Sør-Afrika
Brasil
Canada
Verdensindeksen
Singapore
Vekstmarksindeksen
Norge
UK
Hong Kong
Australia
Frankrike
MSCI Eiendomsindeks
Philippinene
USA
Japan
Tyskland
Kina (Hong Kong)
SKAGEN M2
Kina (lokal)
Tyrkia
Indonesia
India
4
3
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-5
-6
-7
-7
-7
Markedsutvikling hittil i år i NOK (%)
30
Kina (Hong Kong)
18
Kina (lokal)
17
Philippinene
13
UK
11
Hong Kong
10
Japan
9
Norge
8
8
Verdensindeksen
Vekstmarksindeksen
Sør-Afrika
6
Singapore
Frankrike
6
6
Australia
6
3
MSCI Eiendomsindeks
2
Thailand
Canada
0
0
SKAGEN M2
0
Tyskland
-1
USA
-2
Tyrkia
-5
India
-6
Indonesia
Brasil
5
-15
Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK (000)
Selskap
NOK (000)
Melia Hotels
7 613
# Bekasi Fajar
-11 298
Mitsui Fudosan
4 752
# Ashford Hospitality Trust
-8 572
SM Prime
4 339
# HCP
-7 270
IRSA
3 007
# Brandywine Realty Trust
-5 987
British Land
2 975
# CBL Properties
-5 233
First REIT
2 856
# General Growth Properties
-3 299
Keppel Land
2 727
# Ticon Industrial
-3 291
Olav Thon
2 294
# BR Malls
-3 207
Citycon
1 980
# SL Green
-2 606
Mercialys
1 976
# PS Business Parks
-2 593
Total verdiskapning hittil i 2015:
Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning
6
NOK -13 millioner
Største bidragsytere i juni 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK (000)
Axia Real Estate
1 001
Selskap
NOK (000)
##### Olav Thon
-6 137
Melia Hotels
916
##### Global Logistic Properties
-3 932
SM Prime
820
##### General Growth Properties
-3 856
Phoenix Mills
476
##### Bekasi Fajar
-3 415
BR Properties
465
##### Westgrund
-3 372
Ananda Development
365
##### CBL Properties
-2 804
Affine
287
##### Columbia Property Trust
-2 545
Ascendas India Trust
262
##### SL Green Realty
-2 503
IRSA
155
##### HCP
-2 418
CapitaLand
150
##### Brandywine Realty Trust
-2 374
Total verdiskapning i juni 2015:
Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning
7
NOK -57 millioner
Største bidragsytere i juni 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Axia Real Estate
NOK (000)
1 001
Gjenhenting etter svak utvikling etter aksjeutvidelse.
Melia Hotels
916
Sterkt resultat og god operasjonell ledelse.
SM Prime
820
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
Phoenix Mills
476
Forbedring i tallene fra alle shoppingsentrene.
BR Properties
465
Ananda Development
365
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
Affine
287
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
Ascendas India Trust
262
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
IRSA
155
CapitaLand
150
Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning
8
En liten bedring etter svak utvikling så langt i 2015.
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
Største bidragsytere i juni 2015
Største negative bidragsytere
Selskap
NOK (000)
-6 137
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. En større norsk aksjonær ønsket å selge over 1
millioner aksjer. Vi brukte denne muligheten til å øke våre beholdning.
Global Logistic Properties
-3 932
Spekulasjoner rundt oppkjøp av en portefølje i USA dro ned aksjen. Investorer er
generelt fokusert på vekst i Kina og ønsker å bruke kapital i Asia i stedet for i USA. Vi
tror det kan være en god ide å øke eksponeringen mot USA for diversifisering.
General Growth Properties
-3 856
Olav Thon
Bekasi Fajar
-3 415
Westgrund
-3 372
CBL Properties
-2 804
Columbia Property Trust
-2 545
SL Green Realty
-2 503
HCP
-2 418
Brandywine Realty Trust
-2 374
Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning
9
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Generell volatilitet i USA.
Selskapet kom med negativ guidance for salg hele året 2015. På toppen av dette er
nye skatteregler negativt for indonesisk eiendom innen luksussegmentet (5 prosent
skatt ved kjøp, men vil bli implementert sammen med mer fordelaktige låneregler) som
ikke har påvirket selskapet, men som har vært negativt for alle eiendomsaksjer.
Pågående oppkjøp av Adler Real Estate og over 95 prosent av aksjonærene I
Westgrund har godkjent sammenslåingen. Det har vært tekniske bevegelser I aksjen
siden budet er en kombinasjon av aksjer og kontanter. Også påvirket av frykt for Grexit.
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
Bare gode nyheter.
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
Økte renter vil vanligvis påvirke aksjer negativt.
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter.
Viktigste endringer hittil i 2015
Økte poster
Reduserte poster
Q1
Q1
Q2
10
Shangri-La Asia
HCP
Ashford Hospitality Trust
SOHO China
Mitsui Fudosan
Global Logistic Properties
Olav Thon
(Ny)
Axia Real Estate
Keck Seng Investments
Grivalia Properties
Olav Thon
CBL Properties
Deutsche Wohnen
(Ny)
(Ny)
(Ny)
Q2
Keppel Land
Lexington Realty Trust
Unibail-Rodamco
Citycon
CSI Properties
(Ut)
(Ut)
Shimao Property
China South City
Citycon
Hovnanian
CSI Properties
Melia Hotels International
Ticon Industrial
Mapletree Logistics Trust
BR Malls
(Ut)
(Ut)
(Ut)
(Ut)
(Ut)
Største kjøp og salg, juni 2015
Kjøp
Keck Seng Investments
•
Langsiktig verdiskaper og eier av hoteller i Asia og USA.
Priset til stor rabatt.
Axia Real Estate
•
Nylig børsnotert spansk selskap med fokus på kontorer i
Madrid. Kjøpte en liten post i forbindelse med notering.
Grivalia Properties
•
11
God mulighet i en periode med svingninger. Grivalia er det
største børsnoterte eiendomsselskapet i Hellas. Selskapet
har en høykvalitetsportefølje i Hellas og Øst-Europa
(Serbia 2% og Romania 10%). Børsnotert i 2006. Eiendom
i Athen er 74% av MV. Langsiktig verdiskaper, holder
kontanter utenfor landet og gjeld lokalt.
Salg
Melia Hotels
• Redusert fra 2.5% til 2% i fondet etter god oppgang. Ble redusert for
å finansiere ny post i Spania (Axia).
Shimao Property Holdings (ut)
• Solgt fordi triggerne har endret seg og vi var bekymret over
utviklingen i det kinesiske aksjemarkedet. .
Citycon
• Solgt etter oppkjøp av norske Sektor Gruppen. Langsiktig
kapitalstyring er svak og selskapet klarer ikke vokse organisk.
CSI Properties
• Solgt ut på grunn av kapitalallokering og selskapsstyring.
Største poster i SKAGEN m2 pr. 30. juni 2015
Postens
størrelse
P/NAV
siste
Div. Yield
2015e
EBITDA 2015e/EV
Global Logistic Properties Ltd
4,27%
2,53
102%
2,0%
5,6%
Columbia Property Trust Inc
4,10%
24,61
80%
4.9%
6.0%
HCP Inc
4,03%
36,63
112%
6.6%
6.3%
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA
3,99%
142,5
80%
1.2%
6.2%
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd
3,88%
3427
107%
0.8%
5,3%
General Growth Properties Inc
3,85%
25,76
90%
2,6%
5.4%
Ashford Hospitality Trust
3,51%
8,22
80%
5,8%
9,6%
Brandywine Realty Trust
3,41%
13,39
85%
4.5%
7,6%
PS Business Parks Inc
3,27%
72,35
95%
2.8%
6,0%
SL Green Realty Corp
3,23%
110,15
90%
2,1%
4,6%
92%
3.3%
6.2%
3.4%
6.5%
Vektet topp 10
37.6%
Vektet topp 35
85%
Referanseindeks
12
Kurs
3.3%
Geografisk fordeling versus referanseindeksen juni 2015 (%)
52
Fond
Indeks
32
21
20
19
13
11
7
3
0
Asia DM
13
Asia EM
Europe
DM
ekskl.
Norden
Europe
EM
2
2
0
Frontier
Markets
0
5
4
1
Latin
Midtøsten
Nord
Amerika og Afrika Amerika
0
Oceania
6
1
Norden
1
0
Kontanter
Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper
– på engelsk
Key earnings releases and corporate news
Aimco, US (3.2%)
BR Properties,
Brazil (1.4%)
Ashford
Hospitality Trust,
US (3.6%)
15
Strong Results above expectations, creating significant share price appreciation.
Summary: Aimco provided results above expectations which led to a significant jump in share price. The company is almost at the
end of its repositioning process and has become a socially accepted company with low debt (but still higher than peers) and improved
quality of residential (two acquisitions of A-quality, and disposal of affordable housing). The company has been repriced since the
launch of SKAGEN m2, but still trades below peers. They continue to improve free cash flow. Their high interest level debt is
maturing and this will mean further improved cash flow going forward.
Implications for the investment case: The company has acted in accordance with its statement, but has not been repriced
accordingly. As it offers healthy residential exposure in the US with sensible cash flow, we choose to keep it in the portfolio.
Q1 results in line with expectations. Battle for company overshadows results.
Summary: BR Properties, which owns some of the best offices in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, announced results while fighting a
bad bid from the main shareholders. The result was in line with expectations. The increased vacancy is due to weak markets and
increased cost percentage due to disposal. However, it is important to focus on the extremely cheap assets that this company owns.
This has resulted in bids and some bad proposals regarding the future of the company.
Implications for the investment case: We will buy this company as long as no corporate governance issue appears. However, there is
a battle to acquire this high quality company. We hope that the main shareholder will work in the best interests of all shareholders.
The main hope is that the focus on Brazilian corporate governance issues will improve behaviour and that the company can survive
on its own.
Bought 4 hotels for USD 220m and intends to sell 23 select services hotels.
Summary: Ashford announced that they bought 4 new hotels in June and that they intend to sell 23 hotels in the select service
segment. They also stated their intention to increase analyst activity to ensure that they are up to date with their analysis.
Implications for the investment case: The company is trading at a significant discount to NAV, but the external management
agreement has a negative value to be included.
The company is obviously under-researched. Only 3 analysts are up to date. Undervalued; yes, due to external management fees.
Unpopular; Too much debt, but the secured non-recourse model is not widely understood.
Key earnings releases and corporate news (cont.)
British Land, UK
(2.6%)
Gecina, France
(1.3%)
Hovnanian, US
(0%)
16
Issued convertible bond at 0% interest, 27.5% above trading share price
Summary: British Land issued a 5-year senior convertible bond with 0% coupon and conversion price that was 27.5% above trading
price. NAV is slightly above GBP 8. The proceeds will be used to develop 1 Sheldon Square.
Implications for the investment case: British Land is decreasing its cost of capital to an extremely low level. .
Acquired two offices in Paris CBD.
Summary: The acquisition is quite substantial, approximately 12% of EV, but they stressed that they will use loan and credit lines in
the medium term and proceeds from the sales in the long term. The company is trading at a premium to NAV, and it will obviously be
tempting to issue equity for financing purposes.
Implications for the investment case: Gecina increased their leverage after having reduced the level over the last two years, and
increased guidance for 2015. The share may be hurt by the uncertainty regarding the equity issue that they stressed they don’t need.
However, most companies want cheap money and the question is whether this uncertainty will remain an issue for some time.
2Q15 (Feb-April) result was a big disappointment
Summary: Hovnanian, the US homebuilder, provided a weak result with a substantial decline in gross margin (before interest and
GA) from 20% to 16%. The result was in line with 08/09 and a big disappointment. The company promised much better results in the
coming two quarters and may be 0 for the year. However, the results confirmed that homebuilders as a group are not able to increase
their prices in line with cost increases after firing almost 70% of workers following the financial crisis.
Implications for the investment case: This will cause a decline in cash flow and the investment thesis was based on recovery that they
are not able to achieve. Due to the high debt level and upcoming debt maturities, the investment case has become significantly
weaker and may no longer be sustainable. We sold out.
The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of June 15 (cont.)
General Growth Properties (GGP), founded in 1954, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, leases, manages
and develops shopping centres. The company is the second largest mall operator in the world. The company holds
interests in 120 malls, 7 office properties and 6 other properties generating an average of USD 564 in tenant sales per
square foot (malls).
Ashford Hospitality Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investing opportunistically in the hospitality
industry across all segments and at all levels of the capital structure primarily within the United States. Invests
opportunistically in the whole capital structure including lending to other hotel owners.
Ashford Hospitality Trust owns 115 hotels (directly and in JV with Prudential).
Brandywine Realty Trust is a self-administered, self-managed and fully integrated real estate investment trust. The
company is engaged in the ownership, management, leasing, acquisition, and development of primarily suburban office
properties. It also owns an interest in and operates a commercial real estate management services company.
209 buildings of total 24.1m sqf (2.1m m2). 182 office, 19 industrial and 5 mixed use in addition to 4 redevelopment /
use properties. They are also part of 19 unconsolidated JVs.
PS Business Parks, Inc. is a self-advised and self-managed real estate investment trust that acquires, develops and
owns 29m sqf (2.7 m2) and operates commercial properties, primarily multi-tenant office industrial or "flex" space in 102
business parks in 8 states. The company’s main exposure is towards California. Flex (52%), industrial (30%) and office
(18%). Total occupancy 90%.
SL Green Realty Corp. is a fully integrated, self-administered and self-managed REIT. The company specialises in
owning and operating office buildings in Manhattan. It owns equity or debt in 92 properties totaling 41.6m sqf, of which it
owns equity (~82 %) in 29m sqf and the rest is collateral for debt investments. SL Green provides debt financing, in many
cases to achieve properties. In addition to Manhattan, they also have interests in suburban areas of Manhattan (5.3m
sqf). Manhattan occupancy of 95.9% compared to 83.5% (1Q15) in suburban areas.
17
The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of May 15
GLP is Asia's largest provider of modern logistics facilities. The company owns, manages and leases over 700 completed
properties spread across 77 cities in China, Japan, Brazil and US forming an efficient network with assets strategically
located in key hubs, industrial zones and urban distribution centres. The USD 27bn property portfolio comprises 28m sqm
serving more than 800 customers. The Japan portfolio is mostly complete and stabilised providing strong operating cash
flow to fund the group's growing business in China. The company also set up a China fund at the end of 2013 to enable
recycling in the Chinese market in line with the Japanese model. This business model leads to a more effective capital
structure, recurring income and capital recycling (listing of J-REIT & CLF fund)
Columbia Property Trust, Inc. focuses on the acquisition, development, ownership, leasing, and operation of office
properties. Own 59 office buildings, total 16.5m sqf (1.6m m2) valued at USD 5.1bn. The company was listed without any
equity issue in Oct.13 to provide liquidity for shareholders. Bought back shares during 4Q after listing. Core focus is 16 main
cities throughout US. 50% CBD and 50 suburban exposure. Occupancy 92% Financial, 91% Physical. From externally
managed to internal management.
HCP is a fully integrated self-administered real estate investment trust that acquires, manages, and invests in healthcare
(largest sector in US economy) real estate located in the US and Mexico. HCP is well diversified across healthcare
property types: senior housing (35% of NOI), skilled-nursing facilities (3%), medical office (13%), life science/labs (15%),
and hospitals (6%). HCP has USD 22bn in AUM and a well-balanced portfolio of 1163 properties. Company has
generated ~16% compound annual return since IPO 1985, and has 29 years of consecutive dividend growth.
Olav Thon owns a portfolio of 65 shopping malls and manages 27 malls for external owners. In addition the company
owns office buildings, restaurants and hotels (2 that are not Thon Hotels) located primarily in the Oslo area. 76% of
income from malls; 24% from commercial real estate, mainly office/retail. Listed on Oslo Stock Exchange in 1983. Gross
(inclusive JV) lettable space: Shopping malls 1.0’’m2 and commercial estate 263’m2. Diversified into Sweden in 3Q14
after buying 5 shopping malls of 122’m2 for NOK 3bn.
Established in 1941, Mitsui Fudosan has been an active leader in the Japanese RE industry, successfully developing
new business opportunities and establishing a dominant position. The company is an integrated RE firm involved in office
leasing, commercial facilities, condominium development, investment property development and REITS. 8% of MF´s
assets are located on other continents. Strong balance sheet after capitalisation (first in 23 years) in summer 2014. Good
integrated and balanced growth model with development and investment properties diversified among different RE sub
segments. Management business (car park leasing, property management) provides stable earnings growth over time,
in addition to other recurring earnings from commercial assets, to balance the volatility in the development segment.
18
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Se vår siste markedsrapport
Informasjon om SKAGEN m2 på våre hjemmesider
Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av
markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved tegning og forvaltning. Avkastningen
kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap.
SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for
eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og
dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller
salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som
skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av
selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.