1. No category

The Lindorff European
Credit Outlook 2015
Bjørn-Anton Knold
26.03.2015
Agenda
●Bakgrunn for analysen
●Spørsmålene stilt i analysen
●Resultatene av analysen
●Spørsmål?
Bakgrunn for analysen
● For tredje år på rad offentliggjøres Lindorff European Credit Outlook
(LECO). LECO inneholder blant annet en spørreundersøkelse blant ledere
og økonomiansvarlige i europeiske bedrifter om hvilke forventninger de har
til kredittmarkedet i året som kommer.
● Undersøkelsen er utført av TNS Gallup på vegne av Lindorff i Norge,
Sverige, Danmark, Finland, Nederland, England, Tyskland, Frankrike,
Spania og Italia. Totalt er det gjennomført 1094 intervjuer med
konsernsjefer, finansdirektører og andre ledende ansatte i et bredt spekter
av bransjer og sektorer.
• Bank/finans, handel, utility og telecom
● Intervjuene ble gjennomført i Oktober 2014
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3
Spørsmålene stilt i analysen (i)
● Do you think that your company’s DSO (Days Sales Outstanding) will
increase or decrease in 2015?
● How do you see that your company’s credit losses (%) will develop in 2015
compared to this year?
● How likely is your company to tighten its credit policy on issuing credit or
payment time in 2015?
● Compared to 2014, do you believe your customers will be more or less
likely to pay on time in 2015?
● Thinking about your country specifically, do you believe corporate
bankruptcies will increase or decrease in 2015 compared to 2014
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4
Spørsmålene stilt i analysen (ii)
● Do you believe consumer payment defaults will increase or decrease in
your country in 2015 compared to 2014?
● How do you expect your company’s net revenues to change in 2015,
compared to 2014?
● How do you expect your company’s profitability to change in 2015,
compared to 2014?
● Do you expect your company’s financial costs to increase or decrease in
2015?
● Do you need to put resources into debt collection in 2015?
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5
Do you think your company’s DSO (days sales
outstanding) will increase or decrease in 2015?
● Resultater:
• Europa; 23% tror på økning i DSO
•
Norge; 10% tror på økning i DSO
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Do you think your company’s DSO (days sales
outstanding) will increase or decrease in 2015?
Very negative
Land
Norge
Negative
1%
11%
9%
85%
6%
19%
73%
6%
38%
58%
28%
62%
10%
13%
67%
15%
4%
28%
58%
11%
4%
18%
18%
59%
3%
2%
1%
12%
62%
21%
3%
12%
13%
59%
12%
4%
4%
Tyskland
1%
England
Frankrike
Spania
Italia
Very Positive
76%
Danmark
Nederland
Positive
9%
Sverige
Finland
Remain as is
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3%
2%
7
Økningen i mislighold fortsetter !
How do you see that your company’s credit losses (%)
will develop in 2015 compared to this year?
● Resultater
• Europa; 14% tror på økte tap
•
Norge; 16 % tror på økte tap
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How do you see that your company’s credit losses
(%) will develop in 2015 compared to this year?
Very negative
Land
Norge
Negative
1%
Sverige
Remain as is
Positive
Very Positive
15%
68%
12%
6%
87%
7%
4%
Danmark
1%
3%
91%
5%
Finland
1%
22%
75%
2%
14%
76%
8%
2%
6%
71%
15%
5%
1%
84%
14%
1%
Tyskland
Nederland
3%
England
Frankrike
7%
21%
66%
2%
4%
Spania
1%
6%
60%
32%
1%
10%
16%
59%
8%
6%
Italia
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10
Lite bekymring for kreditt-tap
Percent (%)
100
1
90
21
1
4
4
12
80
Increase moderately
70
Remains as is
60
50
Increase significantly
Decrease moderately
54
84
68
Decrease significantly
40
30
20
10
0
20
3
11
0
2013
2014
15
1
2015
11
How likely is your company to tighten its credit policy
on issuing credit or payment time in 2015?
● Resultater
• Europa; 31% vil gjøre innstramninger i kredittpolitikken
•
Norge; 36% vil gjøre innstramninger i kredittpolitikken
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How likely is your company to tighten its credit
policy on issuing credit or payment time in 2015?
Very negative
Land
Negative
Remain as is
Positive
Very Positive
Norge
7%
29%
41%
19%
8%
Sverige
9%
19%
59%
5%
8%
Danmark
3%
12%
38%
9%
38%
Finland
9%
30%
14%
13%
34%
Tyskland
8%
11%
35%
26%
20%
Nederland
13%
19%
31%
19%
18%
England
12%
9%
40%
16%
23%
Frankrike
32%
19%
24%
12%
12%
Spania
9%
28%
38%
18%
7%
Italia
7%
22%
28%
35%
7%
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Kredittpolicyen strammes noe inn i 2015
Percent (%)
100
6
90
12
8
Very likely
31
15
80
Somewhat likely
70
Neither likely nor
unlikely
60
38
17
Somewhat unlikely
41
50
Very unlikely
16
40
30
34
20
30
29
6
7
2014
2015
10
10
0
2013
14
Compared to 2014, do you believe your customers
will be more or less likely to pay on time in 2015?
● Resultater:
• Europa; 20% tror på svekket betalingsvilje/evne
•
Norge; 14% tror på svekket betalingsvilje/evne
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Compared to 2014, do you believe your customers
will be more or less likely to pay on time in 2015?
Very negative
Land
Norge
Negative
2%
Sverige
Danmark
Remain as is
Positive
Very Positive
12%
68%
15%
10%
79%
11%
3%
90%
7%
2%
Finland
3%
45%
41%
8%
2%
Tyskland
2%
22%
38%
29%
9%
Nederland
1%
20%
53%
25%
1%
10%
65%
22%
2%
29%
58%
5%
5%
69%
23%
3%
20%
54%
11%
9%
England
Frankrike
8%
Spania
Italia
6%
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De fleste forventer ikke at egne kunder blir
dårligere betalere
Prosent(%)
100
0
10
90
2
15
12
Much more likely to
pay on time
80
Somewhat more likely
to pay on time
70
Neither more nor less
likely to pay on time
60
Somewhat less likely
to pay on time
68
50
73
68
Much less likely to
pay on time
40
30
20
10
0
16
5
8
3
2013
2014
15
2
2015
17
Thinking about your country specifically, do you
believe corporate bankruptcies will increase or
decrease in 2015 compared to 2014?
● Resultater
• Europa; 47% tror på økning i konkurser
•
Norge; 73% tror på økning i konkurser
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18
Thinking about your country specifically, do you
believe corporate bankruptcies will increase or
decrease in 2015 compared to 2014?
Very negative
Land
Negative
Remain as is
Positive
Very Positive
Norge
4%
69%
23%
3%
1%
Sverige
2%
48%
36%
13%
1%
12%
32%
57%
Danmark
Finland
5%
69%
19%
7%
Tyskland
4%
60%
25%
11%
Nederland
4%
21%
15%
56%
4%
England
1%
21%
35%
41%
1%
39%
30%
26%
5%
1%
4%
12%
20%
56%
8%
27%
33%
22%
13%
4%
Frankrike
Spania
Italia
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73 % forventer flere konkurser i 2015
Prosent (%)
100
90
1
0
5
1
3
12
Increase significantly
24
80
23
Increase moderately
70
Remains as is
45
60
Decrease moderately
50
Decrease significantly
40
67
69
3
3
4
2013
2014
2015
30
20
39
10
0
20
Konkursutvikling 1998 - 2014
Prognose 2015: 5.000 konkurser og 1.050 tvangsavviklinger
6000
5000
4000
3000
 Konkurser
2000
 Tvangsavviklinger
1000
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
Konkurs
2006
2008
Tvangsavvikling
2010
2012
2014
Konkurser og tvangsavviklinger
● Konkurser og tvangsavviklinger
• 4.745 selskaper slått konkurs i 2014, økning på 5,2% i forhold til 2013
• 4.509 selskaper slått konkurs i 2013, økning på 18,6% i forhold til 2012
• 3.801 selskaper slått konkurs i 2012, nedgang på 12,4% i forhold til 2011
•
1.036 selskaper begjært tvangsavviklet i 2014, økning på 6,1% i forhold til 2013
• 976 selskaper begjært tvangsavviklet i 2013, økning på 3,4% i forhold til 2012
• 944 selskaper tvangsavviklet i 2012, nedgang på 14,2% i forhold til 2011
Do you believe consumer payment defaults will
increase or decrease in your country in 2015
compared to 2014?
● Resultater:
• Europa; 52% tror på økt mislighold blant forbrukere
•
Norge; 63% tror på økt mislighold blant forbrukere
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Do you believe consumer payment defaults will
increase or decrease in your country in 2015
compared to 2014?
Very negative
Land
Negative
Remain as is
Positive
Very Positive
Norge
7%
56%
33%
3%
1%
Sverige
4%
44%
43%
8%
1%
Danmark
1%
26%
40%
33%
Finland
6%
77%
15%
2%
Tyskland
1%
55%
38%
6%
11%
48%
13%
34%
4%
23%
44%
28%
33%
42%
19%
5%
5%
14%
43%
37%
1%
30%
31%
22%
15%
1%
Nederland
England
Frankrike
Spania
Italia
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1%
24
63 prosent forventer at norske konsumenter vil få
flere betalingsanmerkninger i 2015
Percent (%)
100
1
6
0
5
1
3
90
Increase significantly
80
70
33
33
Increase moderately
Remains as is
51
60
Decrease moderately
50
Decrease significantly
40
61
30
20
56
37
10
0
4
2013
1
2014
7
2015
25
Antall innkomne inkassosaker 1991-2013
2004
2005
2006
1994
3.778.921
944.039 1.106.882
3.578.373
3.390.576
2,6%
-5,2%
11,5%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014p
3.890.649
4.416.326
5.224.917
5.172.610
5.616.132
5.887.429
6.712.844
7.660.000
2,9%
13,5%
18,3%
-1,0%
8,3%
4,8%
14,0%
14,1%
9 000 000
8 000 000
7 000 000
6 000 000
5 000 000
4 000 000
3 000 000
2 000 000
1 000 000
0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Oppdrag Statens Innkrevingssentral 1997-2014
2004
2005
2006
1994
760.000
959.000
944.039 1.106.882
751.000
13,6%
1,2%
26,2%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1.135.000
1.194.000
1.180.000
1.211.830
1.226.830
1.207.302
1.195.868
1.229.000
18,4%
5,2
-1,2%
2,6%
1,2%
-1,5%
-0,9%
2,8%
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Kilde: Årsberetninger Statens Innkrevingssentral
How do you expect your country’s net revenues to
change in 2015, compared to 2014?
● Resultater
• Europa: 50% tror på omsetningsøkning i 2015
•
Norge 54% tror på omsetningsøkning i 2015
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How do you expect your company’s profitability to
change in 2015, compared to 2014?
● Resultater
• Europa; 42% tror på forbedret resultat i 2015
•
Norge; 50% tror på forbedret resultat i 2015
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Do you expect your company’s financial costs to
increase or decrease in 2015?
● Resultater
• Europa; 28% tror på lavere/26% tror på høyre rentekostnader i 2015
•
Norge; 29% tror på lavere rentekostnader i 2015
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Do you need to put resources into debt collection in
2015?
● Resultater
• Europa; 14% tror de vil bruke mer ressurser på inkasso
•
Norge; 13% troe de vil bruke mer ressurser på inkasso
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Do you need to put resources into debt collection in
2015?
Very negative
Land
Norge
Negative
1%
Sverige
Remain as is
12%
87%
9%
91%
Danmark
1%
3%
96%
Finland
2%
29%
69%
Tyskland
1%
6%
93%
12%
88%
9%
91%
24%
76%
Nederland
England
Frankrike
Spania
1%
11%
88%
Italia
4%
14%
81%
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Positive
Very Positive
32
Gryende pessimisme i Norge – bedre i Spania
● Svak tro på makroøkonomien i de
fleste Europeiske land
• Frankrike og Finland er mest
pessimistiske til utviklingen i
2015
• Tyskland og Norge tror makroøkonomien blir verre
• Spania, Danmark og UK har de
mest positive forventningene
● Sterk tro på egne bedrift i de fleste
land
• Mange ser ut til å være for
positiv på egne vegne
33
Alle land – forcast for 2015
Prosent (%)
10
20
30
0
Change DSO (Days sales outstanding)
4
3 11
Credit policy
11
3
7
Company’s profitability
6
Company’s financial costs
Resources to debt collection
20
3
1 13
70
80
90
17
25
43
36
26
2
2
17
1
33
14
3
15
2
46
24
86
Increase significantly / Very likely / Much more likely
Increase moderately / Likely / More likely
Remains as is
Decrease moderately / Unlikely / Less likely
-1
3
31
40
100
-11
17
18
41
23
0
10 2
62
38
100 -100
10 2
35
16
Company’s net revenue
60
73
11
Consumer payment defaults
50
66
9
Corporate bankruptcies
40
19
Credit losses
Customers pay on time
Percent (%) positive
answers minus percent
negative answers
4
-2
-19
-35
34
25
1
14
Decrease significantly / Very unlikely / Much less likely
34
Spørsmål?
35