compr ising Gold The Glory is Over Treasury Advisory Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 6349-1888 / 1881 Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: 6349-1899 Investments & Structured Products Tel: 6349-1886 GT Institutional Sales Tel: 6349-1810 Tuesday, December 16, 2014 A simple causality Sometimes, it is but a simple cause and effect scenario: dollar weakness following three waves of quantitative easing (QE) efforts by the US Federal Reserve, all done in a bid to arrest the weak labor market and achieve its 2.0% inflation mandate, has invariably lifted dollar-denominated commodity prices in the six years to 2014. During this period, gold rallied from a mere US$705/oz before the fall of Lehman Brothers, to US$1,900/oz in 2011, just when risk aversion reigned, before positive global economic prints and market talks of QE tapering ended the gold buying euphoria. As we approach 2015, we recognise that the ingredients once responsible for the strong rally in gold, have given way to a slightly rosier US economic outlook and a stronger dollar. The path of least resistance is perhaps for the US economic recovery to persist into 2015, in line with the Fed’s economic estimates, thus possibly ushering in further dollar strength and lower gold prices. Three reasons for the fall Above all, the dollar strength, which is expected to persist into 2015, is by far, the most convincing driver for lower gold prices. On this, the expected recovery of the US economy into the next year, as well as further dollar strength considering the recent balance sheet expansionary efforts by both BOJ and ECB, will likely drive the dollar stronger in the coming year. As such, given the strong dollar-gold correlation at -0.84 seen in the first 11 months of 2014, subsequent dollar strength in the coming year should compel gold to print lower. Dollar Strength explains it all 79 1,350 81 1,300 83 1,250 85 1,200 87 1,150 89 Barnabas Gan +65 6530-1778 [email protected] Gold Future $/oz Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 1,100 DXY Absolute (RHS- Inverted) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Secondly, the same higher interest rate environment should discourage paper demand for the yellow metal, given that gold is a zero-yielding asset. With global 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 Higher Interest rates raises opportunity cost for holding gold -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 G7 Gold Futures YOY (RHS) Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 48% 32% 16% 0% -16% -32% -48% Jan-07 Positive real interest rates Negative real interest rates rates likely to take a step up next year, interest-yielding assets like equities and bonds would likely be more attractive to investors. To this end, the higher interest rate environment and the likely tame global inflation outlook given low oil prices, should further support real interest rates and leave gold in the backseat. Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Lastly, the expected sustained global economic recovery into 2015 should pale gold’s status as a safe haven asset. While global growth is likely to remain uneven across the major economies, the overall pace of recovery is expected to pick up modestly in the coming year. On this, we expect the US economy to remain in recovery mode, while a sluggish but positive Eurozone growth may add to risk-taking behavior given the accommodative policies in place. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is forecasted to print a healthy 7.1% y/y growth (OCBC forecast) in the coming year. As such, against this favorable growth backdrop, investors are likely to remain in risk-taking mode and shed off safe haven demand. Gold, a sign of prestige and luck Ultimately, even if paper demand dampens, the yellow metal is a commodity that Asians regard as a sign of prosperity and prestige. On this, a low gold price that eventually translates into cheaper jewelry may persuade increased physical buying, and provide some support to the otherwise downtrend of gold prices. 400 Hong Kong Gold Exports to China 350 Kilograms (th) 300 250 2013 total gold imports: 1.5 million kilograms 200 150 100 50 0 Aug-14 Mar-14 Oct-13 May-13 Dec-12 Jul-12 Feb-12 Sep-11 Apr-11 Nov-10 Jan-10 Aug-09 Mar-09 Oct-08 May-08 Dec-07 Jul-07 Feb-07 -100 Jun-10 First 8 months of 2014 - Gold Imports: 616.8 thousand kilograms -50 Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research 2 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 In fact, physical buying has picked-up of late, firstly with increased Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong to 111.4k kg in Oct 2014 from a multi-month low print of 38.0k kg back in Aug 2014. Meanwhile, India’s commerce ministry reported that its country’s gold imports had grown to US$4.14bn in Oct 2014, up from a mere US$1.09bn a year ago. India lawmakers had also reportedly scrapped gold export regulation which previously required traders to export 20% of all gold that are imported into the country. The return of higher gold imports from China and India, following the fall in gold price, clearly suggests that physical buying has been a viable source of demand when paper demand falls short. However, total physical demand is estimated at only roughly 10% of global trading volume, while paper demand from global futures and options markets and ETF gold holdings account for 90% in the first 10 months of 2014. Since paper demand much exceeds physical demand significantly, its fall will have a much greater impact on gold prices. Gold Trading Volume (In million troy oz) Jan - Oct '14 Share Jan - Oct '13 Paper Demand 287.2 90.2% 391.3 London Bullion Market (LBMA) 179.5 56.4% 225.9 Gold Backed ETFs 53.0 16.7% 60.5 CME Gold Futures & Options 39.5 12.4% 50.2 Mumbai MCX Gold Futures 12.9 4.1% 49.4 Shanghai Futures Exchange 1.1 0.4% 1.0 TOCOM Gold Futures 1.1 0.3% 4.3 Physical Demand 31.2 9.8% 34.5 Jewellery 17.2 5.4% 17.9 Technology 3.1 1.0% 3.3 Investment 7.9 2.5% 10.0 Central Bank Purchases 3.0 0.9% 3.3 Share 91.9% 53.1% 14.2% 11.8% 11.6% 0.2% 1.0% 8.1% 4.2% 0.8% 2.4% 0.8% Source: London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), World Gold Council, Bloomberg, OCBC Bank Physical buyers to celebrate? The fall in gold prices over the last two years have suggested that the recovering global growth and the prospect of higher interest rates are persuasive drivers to turn gold bulls to bears. However, low gold prices have also invited physical buyers back to the table, as seen in increased physical demand in both China and India. As we approach 2015, we expect that the same said drivers to drive gold prices lower. Still, falling gold prices may be welcomed by physical buyers, but the increased fervency of which, given that it is responsible for about 10% of total gold trade, is likely insufficient to inject a substantial upside for the yellow metal. As such, we look for gold price to average US$1,000/oz in 2015. Treasury & Strategy Research 3 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 c o m pr isi n g 16 December 2014 Crude Oil A market-balancing act Back to basics In elementary economics, a student’s first lesson is perhaps, the study of marketclearing equilibrium prices using a simple demand and supply model. The conclusions of that model, while simplistic, form the basic rule for all consumption patterns – prices rise (fall) when demand exceeds (undershoots) supply till market clearing equilibrium condition is achieved. With that theory in mind, we have been calling for lower oil prices even when WTI and Brent were averaging around $100/bbl in the middle of 2014. The drivers for our call back then were (1) the unprecedented rise in US oil production, backed by their shale oil industry, (2) tame demand patterns given the growth challenges in major economies, and (3) easing geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine. Treasury Advisory Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 6349-1888 / 1881 Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: 6349-1899 Investments & Structured Products To be fair, these three factors did play out to depress WTI and Brent prices to our initial year-end target of $80/bbl and $85/bbl respectively. However, market concerns over a sustained oil glut into 2015 amid investors’ reaction over Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) decision to keep its 30 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target intact spooked WTI below its $60/bbl handle, way below our year-end target. Tel: 6349-1886 Brent and WTI Futures (LHS) GT Institutional Sales 140 40 Tel: 6349-1810 120 30 100 20 80 10 60 0 WTI-Brent Spread (RHS) 40 -10 WTI Brent Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Mar-13 Dec-12 Sep-12 Jun-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 -30 Dec-10 0 Sep-10 -20 Jun-10 20 WTI-Brent Gap (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank Barnabas Gan +65 6530-1778 [email protected] Treasury & Strategy Research Where is the over-supply coming from? A lot of market talks had focused largely on a single data point in recent history – the reluctance by the OPEC to cut oil production in its November OPEC meeting. However, the rationale for this decision is equally important, as the cartel cited its decision on their “interest of restoring market equilibrium”, thus recognizing that there is indeed a supply glut. 4 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 The supply glut, as Saudi Arabia correctly pointed out, is not caused by OPEC’s oil production. Rather, according to our estimates, the rise in non-OPEC oil supply has risen to an estimated average of 55 million barrels a day in 2014, up from an average of a mere 48 million barrels a day back in 2008. The increase was largely led by the increased oil production from the US, which ultimately left the glut at an estimated at about 2.0 million barrels a day in 2014. Interestingly enough, this is the same reason that Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali AlNaimi, cited on his decision to keep OPEC’s production on pat, as the overproduction is not triggered by the OPEC cartel. US oil production led the increase in non-OPEC (accumulated change since 1Q2008) million barrels a day 8 6 4 2 0 -2 NON-OPEC US 3Q14 1Q14 3Q13 1Q13 3Q12 1Q12 3Q11 1Q11 3Q10 1Q10 3Q09 1Q09 3Q08 1Q08 -4 OPEC Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank Crystal ball into 2015? In establishing that there indeed is a supply glut at this juncture, the million-dollar question is perhaps, how far prices will fall to establish market clearing conditions. In this, we employ the simple demand and supply model once again and deduce that the current price lows should discourage oil production from the non-OPEC countries (given that OPEC has repeatedly affirmed their inaction to this matter), and importantly, lift global oil demand as oil becomes increasingly affordable. On this, a cheaper crude oil and a rosier global economic backdrop may inject further upside to oil demand in 2015. To this end, major oil agencies like the OPEC, EIA and IEA have reiterated their view for oil demand to expand into 2015. Our oil demand forecast model which leads oil demand by 8 months, concurs with this view as well, with oil demand to climb about 1.4% y/y, or 1.28 mbpd, in the first half of next year to 92.8 mbpd. 60% 6% 40% 4% 20% 2% 0% 0% Jan-15 Jun-14 Nov-13 Apr-13 Sep-12 Feb-12 Jul-11 Dec-10 May-10 Oct-09 Mar-09 Aug-08 -4% Jan-08 -40% Jun-07 -2% Nov-06 -20% Oil Demand Growth Oil demand growth is likely to stay below 2.0% Motor Vehicle Registration (lead 8-months) Oil Demand YOY (2mma - RHS) Oil Demand Forecast YOY (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research 5 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 However, oil supply growth is likely to stay positive as well, according to oil production estimates by OPEC and EIA. Specifically, OPEC continues to expect another glut year in 2015, with global oil supply growth at an estimated 1.36 mbpd, led by increased US oil production. This expectation, even in the face of falling oil prices, is not surprising, as shale wells are estimated to last as long as thirty years, according to EOG Resources. In addition, the sunk cost to establish existing shale oil wells have been paid and production from them are likely hedged against falling oil prices. Meanwhile, though capital expenditure plans by major US oil exploration and production companies are penciled to contract 17.7% to $14.5bn, the sustained flow of capital flow, though in reduced amounts, suggests additional production and exploration efforts in the coming year. Capital expenditure plans announced by US exploration and production companies 2014 Capex 2015 Capex y/y % Apache Corp $5.4 billion $4 billion -26% Conoco Philips $16.9 billion $13.5 billion -20% Continental Resources Inc $4.6 billion $4.6 billion +1% Denbury Resources Inc $1.1 billion $550 million -50% Emerald Oil Inc $250 million $210 - $240 million -10% Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd $791 million $670 -$690 million -14% Goodrich Petroleum Corp $350 million $150 - $200 million -50% Halcon Resources Corp $969 million $750 - $800 million -20% Oasis Petroleum Inc $1.4 million $750 - $850 million -43% Rosetta Resources Inc $1.2 billion $950 million -20% Sanchez Energy Co $870 million $850 - $900 million +1% Swift Energy Co $391 million $240 - $260 million -36% Estimated Total $17.6 billion $14.5 billion -17.7% Source: Thomson Reuters Something’s got to give With the prospect for a supply glut to continue into 2015, something within the variables (price, supply and demand), has to adjust in order for crude oil to return to market equilibrium, an aim should we recall, is regurgitated by the latest OPEC rhetoric. The simplest order of things, perhaps, is for prices to adjust further for equilibrium to occur. However, in the complexity of things, future crude supply into 2015 is perhaps, the biggest wildcard, given (1) the need for OPEC to keep prices above $90 - $110/bbl in order for their fiscal books to stay positive, and (2) the need for US shale producers to keep oil above their average marginal production cost of $70 - $77/bbl. In this sense, both oil producers prosper on high oil prices, and the current low oil prices have undoubtedly affected profit margins. As such, there present only two scenarios for oil prices to rally once again: (1) low oil price to force some high-cost shale players off the grid, or (2) for OPEC to relent and initiate an emergency production cut to prop prices in its next OPEC meeting. But no matter who blinks first, the fact remains that shale oil producers would require prices to return to at least $80/bbl in order to stay afloat. But as to which scenario may take place, we have faith in Saudi Arabia’s rhetoric in keeping production unchanged till its re-consideration in the next OPEC meeting (June 2015), thus making scenario (2) unlikely. Should OPEC production stay pat till then, lower profit margins for high-cost shale producers may eventually take them off the production grid in order to achieve market clearing conditions. Last but not least, geopolitical risk, an important and yet unquantifiable factor in influencing oil supply expectations, should be considered as well as we approach 2015. Should history be of reference, we are reminded of the rally in oil prices on numerous geopolitical events including Russia and Ukraine, the ISIS insurgency in Iraq, previous civil war in Libya, and sanctions against Iran given its nuclear programme. On this, Treasury & Strategy Research 6 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 we continue to monitor this important driver, and do expect oil prices to take a step up should similar events take place again. The tale of two halves Given the likelihood for the supply glut to persist into 2015, oil prices are likely to stay low for at least the first half of 2015. However, low oil prices does affect profit margins by oil producers, where US shale oil producers face an estimated marginal cost of $70 - $77/bbl, versus OPEC’s need for oil to stay above $90-$110/bbl in order to keep their fiscal balances positive. As such, regardless of who blinks first, we do expect oil supplies to take a step down in the second half of next year, especially when hedging instruments that ensure shale selling prices gradually expires, and keeping in mind of OPEC meeting on June 2015. As such, WTI and Brent may well average $65/bbl and $70/bbl in 1H15, before a supply correction be seen in 2H15 where WTI and Brent should average $75 and $80/bbl then. Treasury & Strategy Research 7 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 Crude Palm Oil Biofuel and Mother Nature More than just a supply story Watchers of the crude palm oil (CPO) market regularly quote CPO production trend by key palm oil producers as an important price driver. However, crude palm oil prices have fallen to test its current MYR2,100/MT even during this seasonally low production period. The fall is largely attributed to the plunge in crude oil prices of late, given CPO’s nature as a biofuel and its correlation with crude oil prices. To be sure, palm prices should see some upside bias at this juncture given seasonally low palm production in Malaysia and Indonesia (collectively accounts for 86% of global palm oil supply) from heavier rainfalls during Nov – Feb period. This then typically translates into a crude palm oil rally till end of 1Q15, a phenomenon not seen at this juncture given the falling oil prices. Treasury Advisory Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 6349-1888 / 1881 Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: 6349-1899 Investments & Structured Products The deal about substitutes Crude palm oil prices, given its use as a biofuel, have undoubtedly been dragged by falling oil prices of late. In addition, in the competing soy oil market, the US soy oil futures have remained relatively affordable at its $0.32/lb handle vs the peak at $0.44/lb back in March 2014. 1800 Tel: 6349-1886 Palm oil and its substitutes 1600 1400 GT Institutional Sales 1200 USD/ton Tel: 6349-1810 1000 800 600 400 200 Crude Palm Oil 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0 Soy Oil Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank Barnabas Gan +65 6530-1778 [email protected] On this note, weak outlook for soybean futures into 2015 is not helping as well, as a conservative $9 - $11/bushel has been projected by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in 2014/5, with global soybean production over the same period projected to grow to a record 312.8 million tons, led by gains in Canada, Ukraine and Paraguay. Meanwhile, soybean ending stocks are also projected at a healthy 410 million bushels in 2014/5. The increased production outlook and healthy stocks for the coming year should keep soy oil prices tame, and consequently, cap potential price upside for crude palm oil as its substitute. And as written in our crude oil outlook, the over-supply scenario into 2015 may likely Treasury & Strategy Research 8 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 keep oil price at its $60 - $65/bbl handle for the first half of 2015, before potentiall y lifting to its $75 - $80/bbl in the second half. Should our outlook come to pass, the low crude oil prices should limit demand for CPO as a biofuel. Growth concerns in palm oil export destinations Aside from falling oil prices, growth concerns in key export palm oil destinations, specifically India, EU and China, may deny CPO of any significant upside in the coming year. Firstly, India, being Malaysia’s top palm oil destination, may likely raise import taxes on refined vegetable oils to protect local producers. Currently, India levies a 2.5% tax on crude vegetable oils and 10% tax on refined vegetable oils, and the taxes may go as high as 10% on crude vegetable oils and 25% on refined vegetable oils, according to the petition by the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA). Benin Vietnam Japan Philippines United States Pakistan Netherlands EU India China Malaysia top ten CPO destination (Oct 2014) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: MPOB, OCBC Secondly, EU, which is the second largest export destination for Malaysia, still faces economic growth challenges into 2015. According to the Eurozone Commission, the EU economy is underperforming compared with other post-crisis recoveries, and subsequently downgraded its economic outlook for 2015. Specifically, the growth forecasts for Germany (1.1%) and France (0.7%), being the two largest Eurozone economies, saw the sharpest downgrade. On this, the likely weakening of the Euro, amid sustained growth challenges, may eventually discourage consumption demand, palm oil included. Lastly, China, as the third biggest export destination, has collectively seen a 22.8% contraction in palm oil demand in the first 10 months of 2014 over the same period last year. Many factors come into play in this contraction print, as China currently undergoes the shadow-banking curbs, corruption clamping, and the overall risk-adverse environment in the Asian dragon. A clear example on how the current reforms affected palm oil demand may be seen from the difficulty to secure credit by China’s second-largest palm oil importer, Shandong Changhua Food Group, given that banks had halted loan approvals and affected its import capabilities. Meanwhile, Chinese palm oil inventories climbed to near historical highs at roughly 1 million tonnes in 3Q14, thus discouraging import demand. We perceive a sustained weak Chinese import demand for palm oil, given the high inventories, and sustained reform efforts in 2015. Policy-driven biofuel demand But as we move on from 2014 to usher in 2015, we recognize that there are policy moves to increase biofuel consumption, specifically in Indonesia and Malaysia. In fact, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), the extent of the increase in biofuel demand in 2015 (up to 2.8 million tonnes from 2014’s 1.8 mllion tonnes) will reduce 2015 export quantity to 19.5 million tonnes (down from 2014’s 20.0 million tonnes). Meanwhile, the proposed biodiesel B7 programme in Malaysia, specifically involving blending of 7% palm Treasury & Strategy Research 9 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 biodiesel with 93% petroleum diesel, will be implemented gradually, starting with Peninsular Malaysia in November, and Sabah and Sarawak in December. The B7 programme is estimated to consume an additional 575,000 tonnes of biodiesel, adding to other B7 programmes worldwide including EU, Thailand and Indonesia, while Colombia implemented their own B8 and B10 programme. Global biodiesel demand 250000 million litres 200000 150000 100000 50000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 0 Ethanol Biodiesel Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014 – 2023 *Indicates forecasted demand Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia Mil tons 2014 2015 Net Chg Indonesia Production Export 29.5 20.0 31.5 19.5 2.0 -0.5 Malaysia Production Export 20.2 17.9 20.5 18.2 0.3 0.3 Source: GAPKI, MPOB, OCBC Revisiting El Niño’s probability Another factor that may lift crude palm oil further would be the re-emergence of El Niño risk in 2015. If we recall the El Niño concern back in May 2014, weather forecasters were predicting a 70% probability of a severe El Niño symptom this year, and an absence of such may mean a postponement of it to 2015, given the 4 – 6 years cycle between each severe El Niño symptom. According to our statistical models, we did find that agricultural prices increase on El Niño symptoms, as adverse weather conditions get translated into poorer harvest conditions. However, price behavior varies across commodities: in regards to palm oil, prices typically have 9 – 12 months lag, while wheat prices have been found to be sensitive to weather changes. In correlation studies, palm oil prices enjoy the highest correlation with the Oceanic Niño Index. As such, given the likelihood of an El Niño phenomenon in the coming year, we recognise that this weather wildcard will not only inject upside risk for palm oil prices, but also other agricultural commodities, including soybean, which is a close competitor for palm oil. Treasury & Strategy Research 10 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 Agricultural Prices and Weather Extremities 3 El Nino 2.5 5 years (Agricultural Prices lag approx 9 - 12 months) 2 125% 5 years 6 years 3 years Nov 09 - ? Strong 4 years 1.5 4 years Moderate 1 Weak 0.5 65% 35% 5% 0 -0.5 La Nina 95% -25% Weak -1 -1.5 Moderate -55% Strong -85% -2 Oceanic Nino Index Apr-13 Sep-11 Jul-08 Feb-10 Dec-06 Oct-03 May-05 Mar-02 Jan-99 Aug-00 Jun-97 Nov-95 Apr-94 Sep-92 Jul-89 Feb-91 Dec-87 Oct-84 May-86 Mar-83 Jan-80 -115% Aug-81 -2.5 Agri Prices yoy (OCBC Calculation) Source: National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administraion (NOAA), Bloomberg, OCBC Bank1 Piecing the jigsaw puzzle Falling crude oil prices, weak outlook for CPO’s substitutes, and potentially softer demand from CPO’s key consumers are viable reasons for CPO to see tame prices into 2015. The only upside factors for CPO may come from the biofuel initiatives from Indonesia and Malaysia, aid from Mother Nature should an El Niño symptom present itself in the coming year, and a hopeful earlier-than-expected crude oil recovery in the coming year. With the lower crude oil prices at this juncture, we revise our CPO outlook to MYR2,300/MT (from MYR2,600/MT) in 2015. 1 Note: Agricultural prices is calculated by a weighted average of wheat, soybean, corn, rice, crude palm oil and sugar Treasury & Strategy Research 11 16 December 2014 OCBC Global Commodities Outlook 2015 This publication is solely for information purposes only and may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without our prior written consent. This publication should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the securities/instruments mentioned herein. Any forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market and economic trends of the markets provided is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the securities/instruments. 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