Monday, November 10, 2014 For Private Circulation Only MAJOR COMMODITIES Commodity Expiry High Low Close Gold 5-Dec 25930 25930 25930 Silver 5-Dec 34816 34816 Crude Oil 19-Nov 4885 Natural Gas 29-Nov Copper Change Commodity Expiry High -2 Gold (Oz) Dec 1179.00 34816 20 Silver (Oz) Dec 4774 4861 47 Crude Oil 276.40 264.40 274.40 10.50 28-Nov 415.80 410.05 413.05 Nickel 28-Nov 964.00 940.90 Aluminium 28-Nov 129.00 Lead 28-Nov Zinc 28-Nov Low Close ($) Change 1130.40 1169.80 27.20 15.88 15.04 15.71 0.30 Nov 78.50 78.49 78.49 -0.16 Natural Gas Nov 4.39 4.39 4.39 -0.03 2.30 Copper 3M 6710.00 6639.25 6697.25 55.25 942.80 -9.70 Nickel 3M 15633.00 15320.00 15410.00 -67.00 126.85 127.00 -1.30 Aluminium 3M 2078.00 2053.00 2058.00 -14.25 125.50 123.35 124.80 0.70 Lead 3M 2036.50 2004.00 2024.00 15.00 138.90 137.05 137.55 0.80 Zinc 3M 2255.50 2225.00 2239.00 13.50 News & Development  U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew at a fairly brisk 214,000 pace, but this was under economists' forecasts for 231,000. The jobless rate dropped to a fresh six-year low of 5.8 percent.  Both the International Monetary Fund and the United States encouraged the ECB and the BoJ toward greater monetary stimulus during a conference of central bankers in Paris on Friday.  Libya hopes to reopen the southern El Sharara oilfield "very soon" but first needs to solve a conflict between local tribes, an oil official said on Thursday. Gunmen stormed the field and looted equipment at the 340,000 barrels a day field, shutting down production, oil officials said on Wednesday. Details are unclear but pictures on social media showed damaged cars at the field located deep in the south where rival tribes have been fighting for weeks. (Source: Reuters) Commodity Daily Gold Technical Outlook Gold rose 2.6 percent on Friday, its biggest one-day gain in nearly five months, as a retreat in the U.S. dollar and heavy short-covering lifted bullion from a 4-1/2-year low. The metal notched a third straight week of losses, however, having dropped to its lowest since April 2010 at $1,131.85 an ounce earlier on Friday. The dollar slipped after a solid but below-expectation October U.S. jobs report as investors took profits on the greenback's months-long rally, which has seen it reach multi-year highs in anticipation of tighter U.S. monetary policy next year. Gold had been under pressure for a week from a rising dollar, which has benefited from expectations the Federal Reserve will move before other central banks to tighten monetary policy. Despite coming in below expectations, the U.S. payrolls report showed the unemployment rate fell to a fresh six-year low, suggesting the economy remains on a strengthening path. Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Dec Sell @ R1 25780 25850 25932 26000 26100 *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised Outlook We expect gold prices are likely to trade on negative note on the back of potential U.S. rate hikes. Silver Technical Outlook Silver climbed 1.8 percent to $15.65 an ounce after hitting the lowest since February 2010 at $15.03. Silver has been the worst-performing precious metal this week, down around 3 percent. The dollar fell on Friday after a solid but below-expectation October U.S. jobs report as investors took profits on the greenback's monthslong rally that has taken it to multi-year highs in anticipation of tighter U.S. monetary policy next year. U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew at a fairly brisk 214,000 pace, but this was under economists' forecasts for 231,000. The jobless rate dropped to a fresh six-year low of 5.8 percent. Outlook We expect Silver prices are likely to trade on negative note on the back of potential U.S. rate hikes. Page 2 Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Dec Sell @ R1 33900 34300 34796 35100 35500 *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised Commodity Daily Crude Oil Technical Outlook U.S. crude climbed less than a dollar on Friday but finished down more than 2 percent for the week, marking the first time the benchmark has fallen for six straight weeks since December 1998. The Friday rally was driven in part by geopolitical tremors in Ukraine and the dollar backing off of its four-year high. The dollar helped drive both the daily gains and the weekly losses, as Friday it retreated from its strongest level against a basket of foreign currencies in over four years. A strong dollar stunts the price of dollardenominated oil benchmarks. The Ukrainian military accused Russia of sending 32 tanks and truckloads of troops across the border, which if true would signal an end to the lull in violence between the two countries. Renewed fighting in the region could disrupt oil flows, throttle supply, and drive worldwide prices up. However, some traders are skeptical that another flaring of violence in the region could affect supply and prices. Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Nov Sell @ R1 4800 4830 4861 4900 4930 *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised Outlook We expect crude oil prices to trade on negative note as increasing supplies is likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure. Natural Gas Technical Outlook U.S. natural gas ended a notch higher on Friday to extend its rally to a ninth day, and traders expected more gains in the coming week if heating demand rises in accordance with forecasts for harshly cold weather. Indications that a polar vortex could freeze the U.S. Midwest by next week gave market bulls the longest winning streak in natural gas in eight years. Over the next two weeks, U.S. weather models show lower-thannormal temperatures, with 354 heating degree days, up from the 320 forecast on Thursday. Normal HDDs for this time of year are 261, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics. Outlook We expect Natural gas prices to trade on positive note on the back of below normal temperature forecast over next few days. Page 3 Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Nov Buy @ S1 269 272 274.4 277 280 *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised \ Commodity Daily Base Metals Technical Outlook Copper prices rose on Friday as a mixed U.S. payrolls report offered investors relief that the world's largest economy had not lost steam, while aluminium extended losses as producers and trade houses sold. Data showed U.S. job growth increased at a fairly brisk clip in October and the unemployment rate fell to a fresh six-year low, underscoring the economy's resilience in the face of slowing global demand. Nov/Oct Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 Copper Sell @ R1 408 411 413.0 416 Nickel Sell @ R1 924 933 942.8 950 960 Alum Buy @ S1 126.2 126.8 127.0 128.2 129 Lead Sideways 123.3 124 124.8 125.7 126.5 Zinc Sell @ R1 135 136.7 137.5 138.3 139.2 We expect base metal prices to trade on mixed note on the back of short term shortage and long term surplus in base metal stocks are likely to keep market mixed. Current Stock Change % Change 419 *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised Outlook LME Inventories R2 Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel 159775 220550 695850 4427975 387222 -625 -1950 -3300 -9150 1104 -0.39% -0.88% -0.47% -0.21% 0.29% Page 4 Commodity Daily DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT Mon, Nov 10 7:00am CNY CPI y/y 1.60% 1.60% High CNY PPI y/y -1.90% -1.80% Medium Source: Forex Factory Ashish Shah For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000 Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal AVP [email protected] Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] Research Analyst [email protected] WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN. STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. 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While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its accuracy. We shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein at their own risk. Sushil Global Commodities Private Limited Member: NCDEX, FMC Regn.No. 00304 | MCX, FMC Regn.No. 12240 Genius, 4th Road, Khar (W), Mumbai – 400 052. Tel.: 022-6698 0636 Fax: 022-6698 0606 | E-mail: [email protected] | www.sushilfinance.com Page 5