[ Morning Report ] Monday, December 29, 2014 Market Overview Lackluster activities were observed at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) on Friday as investors preferred to profit taking at higher level. The benchmark KSE-100 index was down by 7 point to close at 31,993.01 points. KOHC: Higher production boost earnings Kohat Cement Limited (KOHC) witnessed decent growth in profitability as company posted earning of Rs 683 million (EPS: Rs 4.42) in 1QFY15 against Rs 616 million (EPS: Rs 3.99) in 1QFY14, depicting rise by 11%. Surge in earning mainly attributed to better retention prices, hike in other income and reduction in financing cost. However, earnings drop by 6% QoQ to Rs 683 million (EPS: Rs 4.42) against Rs 726 million (EPS: Rs 4.70) during 4QFY14 mainly due to lower volumetric sales, decline in other income and surge in effective taxation of 27.2% in 1QFY15 versus 21.7% in 4QFY14. Higher volume propel revenue Net sales of the company surge by 11% to Rs 2.92 billion in 1QFY15 compared to Rs 2.64 billion owing to higher volumetric sales and 5% rise in retention prices. Volumetric sales surge by 5.3% to 431k tons in 1QFY15 against 409k tons witnessed in 1QFY14. Local dispatches went up by 13% to 358k tons in 1QFY15 versus 317k tons in 1QFY14 due to better construction activities. While export down 21% to 73k tons in 1QFY15 compared to 92k tons in 1QFY14 due to lower demand in Afghanistan. Gross profit up by 3% Cost of sales increase by 15.3% to Rs 1,887 million versus Rs 1,636 billion in 1QFY14 due to due to increase in electricity charges by around 50%. Thus gross profit showed marginal growth of 3.1% to Rs 1,038 million versus Rs 1,007 million in 1QFY14. Gross margin decreased to 35.5% from 38.1% in 1QFY14. Retention prices up by 5% to Rs 6,814/ton versus Rs 6,502/ton in 1QFY14. Rs in million Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Selling Expenses Administrative Expenses Other Expenses Other Income Operating Profit Finance Cost Profit before Taxation Taxation Profit after Taxation EPS (Rs) Source: Company Report 1QFY15 2,925 1,887 1,038 17 28 69 39 964 26 938 255 683 4.42 1QFY14 2,644 1,636 1,007 14 24 63 16 922 44 878 263 616 3.99 YoY 10.6% 15.3% 3.1% 16.3% 14.9% 9.1% 137.8% 4.6% -39.9% 6.8% -2.9% 10.9% 4QFY14 3,603 2,578 1,025 22 68 71 92 956 29 927 201 726 4.70 QoQ -18.8% -26.8% 1.3% -24.0% -58.8% -3.6% -57.2% 0.9% -8.2% 1.2% 26.7% -5.9% As electricity tariff has decreased by Rs2.32/unit after increase more than 50% would provide support to surge in gross margin. However recent cut in cement prices would not affect negatively due to company has benefit from lower coal and electricity prices which partially pass on the benefit to the consumers. Furthermore company has decided to install 15 MW WHRP to complete 30 June, 2015. At the current price level of Rs 188.36, the stock of KOHC is trading 7% lower from our DCF based June'15 target price of Rs 195/share. Portfolio Investment U.S $ in million) FIPI (26-Dec-2014) -1.31 Local Companies (26-Dec-2014) -5.03 Banks / DFI (26-Dec-2014) 3.95 Mutual Funds (26-Dec-2014) 2.28 NBFC (26-Dec-2014) 0.40 Local Investors (26-Dec-2014) 1.92 Other Organization (26-Dec-2014) -2.22 Yearly(Jul, 2014 up to 24-Dec-2014) 84.75 Monthly(Dec, 2014 up to 24-Dec-2014) -59.00 Daily (24-Dec-2014) -0.76 Total Portfolio Investment (28-Nov-2014) 6029 1 Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) has struck oil and gas at its exploration well in Sanghar District, Sindh, the state-run firm said on Friday, referring to a region where the company previously made five successful discoveries during the year. PPL said the well produced a flow rate of 2,100 barrels per day condensate and 11.05 million cubic feet of gas per day in the initial test. The total liquid foreign exchange reserves held by the country surged by 7.5 percent to $15.098 billion as of December 19, 2014 because of $1.221 billion inflows, the central bank said. Weighted average banking spreads registered a minimal uptick in November, clocking in at 5.82 percent, up one basis points as compared to October, a central bank statement said. Lending rates for November clocked in at 10.93 percent, up 1bps, while deposit rates remained unchanged at 5.11 percent as compared to October 2014, it said. Pakistan on Saturday defended lifting moratorium on death penalty in terrorism related cases, saying that the country is facing 'difficult circumstances.' 'Unusual situations demand extraordinary measures to cope with the challenges,' the prime minister spokesman said after UN chief urged Pakistan to halt executions. Musaddiq Malik, the PM's spokesman, further said that Pakistan respects international community. Outlook NCCPL (U.S $ in million) News Update The government has given tax exemption to Hub Power Company (Hubco) on demerger of Hubco Narowal Project after the latter pleaded that the company's cash flow and profit would decline significantly and it would not have sufficient funds for conversion of 1292 MW power plant to coal and for setting up a new power plant. KSE Statistics Indices All Share Index KSE-30TM Index KSE-100TM Index Turnover All Share Index KSE-30TM Index KSE-100TM Index December 26, 2014 23,244.59 20,779.69 31,993.01 209,893,530 72,781,750 151,928,690 [ Morning Report ] Monday, December 29, 2014 Pivot Analysis Company Board Meetings CR RSI Buy 1 Buy 2 Sell 1 Sell 2 Pivot KSE 100 INDEX 31993.01 59.88 31,904 31,814 32,112 32,231 32,023 Attock Cement 195.49 61.65 193.70 191.90 197.60 199.65 195.80 Adamjee Insurance 49.58 52.89 49.05 48.50 50.35 51.15 49.80 Askari Bank 22.58 55.56 22.35 22.10 22.85 23.10 22.60 Azgard Nine 5.85 48.16 5.75 5.70 5.95 6.05 5.90 Attock Petroleum 525.06 44.76 520.70 516.35 529.70 534.35 525.35 Attock Refinery 184.66 36.82 180.45 176.20 189.45 194.20 185.20 Bank Al-Falah 32.56 65.09 31.85 31.10 33.00 33.45 BankIslami Pak 9.96 43.74 9.90 9.85 10.00 Bank.Of.Punjab 10.86 78.47 10.70 10.55 Faysal Bank 17.82 56.75 17.65 Fauji Cement 24.66 61.58 Fauji Fert Bin 44.94 62.00 Company DATE TIME Pak Synthetics Ltd 29-12-2014 3:30 Khairpur Sugar Mills Ltd 30-12-2014 2:30 Mehran Sugar Mills Ltd 30-12-2014 11:30 Unilever Pak Foods Ltd 04-03-2015 2:30 Key Data Money Market T-Bills (3 Mths) 24-Dec-2014 9.48% 32.30 T-Bills (6 Mths) 24-Dec-2014 9.48% 10.05 9.95 T-Bills (12 Mths) 24-Dec-2014 9.47% Discount Rate 15-Nov-2014 9.50% 11.05 11.20 10.90 Kibor (1 Mth) 26-Dec-2014 9.88% 17.45 18.00 18.15 17.80 Kibor (3 Mths) 26-Dec-2014 9.63% 24.40 24.20 24.95 25.20 24.70 Kibor (6 Mths) 26-Dec-2014 9.64% Kibor (9 Mths) 26-Dec-2014 9.90% 44.25 43.60 46.00 47.00 45.30 Kibor (1 Yr) 26-Dec-2014 9.92% Fauji Fertilizer 117.18 43.81 116.80 116.40 117.80 118.40 117.40 P.I.B (3 Yrs) 26-Dec-2014 10.05% Habib Bank Ltd 218.56 61.21 217.05 215.55 221.05 223.50 219.50 P.I.B (5 Yrs) 26-Dec-2014 10.25% P.I.B (10 Yrs) 26-Dec-2014 11.02% Hub Power 79.88 69.40 75.95 81.00 82.15 79.05 P.I.B (15 Yrs) 26-Dec-2014 11.55% ICI Pakistan 449.77 20.30 444.85 439.90 457.85 465.90 452.90 P.I.B (20 Yrs) 26-Dec-2014 11.70% Lucky Cement 486.39 54.79 482.75 479.15 492.50 498.60 488.90 P.I.B (30 Yrs) 26-Dec-2014 11.80% MCB Bank Ltd 299.78 61.48 297.50 295.20 302.60 305.40 300.30 Commodities Maple Leaf Cement 44.24 76.44 43.45 42.65 44.75 45.20 43.90 National Bank 67.41 67.20 66.75 66.10 67.80 68.20 67.15 Nishat Mills 118.40 42.20 117.80 117.20 119.25 120.10 118.65 Pak Petroleum 179.40 39.08 177.45 175.50 181.90 184.40 179.95 22.78 59.27 23.05 23.35 22.65 P.T.C.L.A 77.90 22.35 21.95 CR = Yesterday's Closing Rate; RSI = 14 day RSI. RSI Indication: Less than 30 Indicate oversold position & Greater than 70 Indicate overbought position. 2 Crude Oil (brent)$/bbl Crude Oil (WTI)$/bbl Cotton $/lb Gold $/ozs Silver $/ozs Malaysian Palm $ GOLD (PMEX) PKR KHI Cotton 40Kg PKR 60.10 55.69 61.66 1,194.38 16.10 635 38,645 5,144 Monday, December 29, 2014 MTS Leverage Position Unrel Volume 26-Dec-14 24-Dec-14 Chg DoD % Symbol AHCL AICL AKBL ATRL BAFL BAHL BOP CHCC DAWH DGKC EFOODS ENGRO EPCL FABL FATIMA FCCL FFBL FFC HUBC KEL LPCL LUCK MCB MLCF NBP NCL NML NPL OGDC PAEL PIOC PKGP PPL PSO PTC SNGP SSGC UBL TOTAL Unrel Value 70,398,020 2,783,658,170 69,609,420 2,691,441,559 1.13% 3.43% Unrel Volume Unrel Value 40,200 791,600 2,002,100 84,225,087 1,116,500 20,950,191 438,200 70,354,467 1,027,000 26,856,692 46,500 1,839,753 18,304,400 147,897,077 665,000 39,155,768 5,000 329,524 1,771,000 155,916,973 1,298,900 113,536,506 3,759,700 663,702,375 3,209,000 46,031,976 2,632,000 71,679,094 1,409,000 28,400,343 243,000 9,239,762 74,300 7,415,718 1,690,000 102,930,240 4,097,500 29,404,400 5,015,000 71,673,126 54,700 22,202,285 25,000 6,377,900 1,183,000 42,452,218 1,542,000 85,574,082 955,000 35,422,884 723,080 73,220,271 6,000 235,102 181,700 31,612,593 1,248,000 38,570,161 1,065,000 71,059,223 344,000 7,591,410 1,162,040 174,409,991 475,900 144,781,347 5,650,000 104,179,739 1,036,500 23,762,741 5,447,000 166,405,585 454,800 63,469,966 70,398,020 2,783,658,170 MTS Volume 6,282,000 5,812,600 8.08% MTS Volume 86,000 71,000 527,500 15,100 149,500 12,500 60,000 90,000 202,500 128,500 869,400 819,000 933,500 293,000 200,000 1,200 72,000 1,000 225,000 27,600 2,100 289,000 81,500 10,800 2,000 210,500 5,500 56,400 56,700 222,500 50,500 448,500 61,700 6,282,000 MTS Value 389,892,208 338,933,135 15.04% MTS Value 1,953,456 2,984,623 10,115,747 2,356,756 4,125,205 509,821 551,920 5,303,408 19,282,857 11,460,919 165,322,433 12,311,487 27,342,671 6,134,590 7,589,258 119,601 4,879,649 7,807 3,264,323 11,388,963 534,333 16,555,322 3,136,063 1,088,341 361,058 14,984,010 126,755 8,589,469 17,197,417 4,302,725 1,245,436 15,380,377 9,385,411 389,892,208 Total Volume 76,680,020 75,422,020 1.67% Total Volume 126,200 2,073,100 1,644,000 453,300 1,176,500 59,000 18,364,400 755,000 5,000 1,973,500 1,427,400 4,629,100 4,028,000 3,565,500 1,702,000 443,000 75,500 1,762,000 4,098,500 5,240,000 82,300 27,100 1,183,000 1,831,000 1,036,500 733,880 6,000 183,700 1,248,000 1,275,500 349,500 1,218,440 532,600 5,872,500 1,087,000 5,895,500 516,500 76,680,020 Total Value MTS Rate 3,173,550,378 3,030,374,694 4.72% 17.26 17.63 -37 bps Total Value MTS Rate 2,745,056 87,209,710 31,065,938 72,711,223 30,981,896 2,349,574 148,448,997 44,459,176 329,524 175,199,831 124,997,425 829,024,808 58,343,464 99,021,764 34,534,933 16,829,020 7,535,320 107,809,889 29,412,207 74,937,449 33,591,247 6,912,233 42,452,218 102,129,405 38,558,947 74,308,612 235,102 31,973,651 38,570,161 86,043,233 7,718,165 182,999,460 161,978,764 108,482,463 25,008,177 181,785,961 72,855,377 3,173,550,378 17.86 17.86 17.84 17.85 16.22 17.60 17.86 17.86 16.47 16.53 17.39 17.73 17.42 17.84 16.90 17.48 15.00 17.86 17.86 15.27 17.86 17.86 17.39 17.14 15.00 17.86 17.86 16.83 16.65 17.12 17.86 17.83 17.20 17.26 CORPORATE OFFICE. 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