[ Morning Report ] Wednesday, April 8, 2015 Market Overview After witnessing positivity for straight 5 days market observed technical correction. The benchmark KSE-100 index closed down by 151.44 point to close at 31,600.73 points. KOHC: Result Preview 9MFY15 The board of directors of Kohat Cement Limited (KOHC) is scheduled to meet on April 9, 2015 to announce the corporate results for the period ended Mar 31, 2015, following are the details. Higher cost to drag profitability Kohat cement likely to post decline in earnings by 12.3% as profit after taxation to squeeze at Rs 2.13 billion (EPS: Rs 13.79) as compared to Rs 2.42 billion (EPS: Rs 15.72) in 9MFY14. This is expected owing to reduction in volumetric sales and rise in electricity prices. In 3QFY15, profitability to trim by 20% YoY to Rs 764 million (EPS: Rs 4.95) in 3QFY15 versus Rs 955 million (EPS: Rs 6.18) in 3QFY14 due to closure of plant for 15 day in Jan'15 and higher electricity prices. Lower dispatches to reduce revenue growth Net sales is expected to drop by 4.4% YoY to Rs 8.76 billion in 9MFY15 versus Rs 9.16 billion in 9MFY14 mainly due to lower dispatches. We expect the volumetric sales of the company to drop by 7% YoY to 1.28 million tons in 9MFY15 against 1.37 million tons in 9MFY14 on account of closer of plant. Cost of sales of the company is expected to increase by 5% to Rs 5.64 billion compare to Rs 5.38 billion in 9MFY14 owing to higher electricity charges. Gross profit to decline by 18% Gross profit likely to decrease by 18% to Rs 3.11 billion compared to Rs 3.78 billion in 9MFY14 likely due to higher electricity charges and lower cement sales. Gross margin is expected to drop to 35.5% in 9MFY15 versus 41.3% recorded in 9MFY14. Rs in million Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Selling & Distribution Exp Administrative & General Exp Other Operating Expenses Other Income Operating Profit Finance Cost Profit before Taxation Taxation Profit After Taxation EPS (Rs) Source: AZEE Research 9MFY15E 8,761 5,648 3,113 52 86 208 218 2,986 58 2,928 797 2,130 13.79 9MFY14A 9,162 5,381 3,782 61 79 241 174 3,575 126 3,449 1,020 2,429 15.72 YoY -4.4% 5.0% -17.7% -15.0% 9.1% -13.6% 25.7% -16.5% -53.7% -15.1% -21.9% -12.3% 3QFY15E 2,855 1,774 1,081 18 29 70 99 1,063 16 1,047 283 764 4.95 3QFY14A 3,309 1,912 1,398 23 24 90 133 1,393 46 1,347 392 955 6.18 YoY -13.7% -7.2% -22.7% -23.5% 19.2% -22.1% -25.4% -23.7% -64.6% -22.3% -27.9% -19.9% News Update Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has said the government has taken measures to set the economy on right track. He was talking to the Resident Representative of International Monetary Fund for Pakistan Tokhir Mirzoev in Islamabad on Tuesday. Mirzoev has recently assumed responsibilities of his office in Pakistan. The Finance Minister welcomed Tokhir Mirzoev to Pakistan and exchanged views with him on the current profile of Pakistan's economy and the forthcoming 7th IMF review. The senior IMF official said the budget 2015-16 outlook and Pakistan's efforts for revenue generation would be the focal point of discussion in this review besides the work done in the energy sector. Pakistan's "macroeconomic picture is improving" steadily and the country's GDP is projected to grow by 4.3 per cent this year with further expansion in growth expected next year and in the medium-term, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Tuesday. The real GDP is projected to grow by some 4.3 percent in FY2014/15, driven mainly by the agriculture and construction sectors, the Fund said in a document, containing staff report and statement regarding sixth review of the country's economic progress under a 36-month and over $ 6 billion lending programme agreed in September 2013. Recommendation At the current price level of Rs 184.97, the stock of Kohat Cement is offering an upside potential of 7% to our DCF based December end 2015 target price of Rs 197/share. NCCPL (U.S $ in million) Portfolio Investment U.S $ in million) FIPI (07-Apr-2015) 4.04 Local Companies (07-Apr-2015) -1.22 Banks / DFI (07-Apr-2015) -1.23 Mutual Funds (07-Apr-2015) 0.60 NBFC (07-Apr-2015) 3.31 Local Investors (07-Apr-2015) -6.32 Other Organization (07-Apr-2015) 0.82 Yearly(Jul, 2014 up to 06-Apr-2015) 33.81 Monthly(Apr, 2015 up to 06-Apr-2015) 3.11 Daily (06-Apr-2015) 4.25 Total Portfolio Investment (20-Mar-2015) 5833 1 KSE Statistics Indices All Share Index KSE-30TM Index KSE-100TM Index Turnover All Share Index KSE-30TM Index KSE-100TM Index April 7, 2015 22,400.15 19,983.57 31,600.73 249,669,580 106,439,600 199,597,460 [ Morning Report ] Wednesday, April 8, 2015 Pivot Analysis Company Board Meetings CR RSI Buy 1 Buy 2 Sell 1 Sell 2 Pivot Company DATE TIME Kohat Cement Company Ltd 09-04-2015 11:00 KSE 100 INDEX 31600.73 48.24 31,462 31,323 31,795 31,989 31,656 Habib-ADM Ltd 10-04-2015 11:00 Attock Cement 199.15 61.45 194.10 189.10 202.05 205.00 197.05 Saif Power Ltd 14-04-2015 11:00 Adamjee Insurance 46.92 51.26 46.30 45.65 47.80 48.65 47.15 Dynea Pak Ltd 15-04-2015 3:00 Unilever Pak Foods Ltd 17-04-2015 3:00 Askari Bank 19.24 44.16 19.00 18.70 19.45 19.65 19.20 Kot Addu. Power Co. Ltd 22-04-2015 2:00 Azgard Nine 4.69 48.45 4.55 4.40 4.80 4.95 4.65 Attock Petroleum 545.95 55.75 538.95 532.00 556.45 567.00 549.50 Key Data Attock Refinery 180.40 57.27 177.95 175.45 182.95 185.45 180.45 Money Market Bank Al-Falah 26.00 35.44 25.65 25.25 26.60 27.25 26.25 BankIslami Pak 9.40 49.40 9.30 9.20 9.50 9.60 9.40 Bank.Of.Punjab 8.16 35.99 8.05 7.95 8.30 8.45 8.20 Fauji Cement 31.20 55.55 30.80 30.35 31.65 32.10 31.25 Fauji Fert Bin 50.45 51.29 49.90 49.35 51.35 52.25 50.80 Fauji Fertilizer 135.94 50.65 134.60 133.25 137.95 139.95 Habib Bank Ltd 175.41 35.86 174.35 173.25 177.15 Hub Power 87.30 50.04 86.45 ICI Pakistan 407.44 44.90 395.65 383.90 Jah Siddiq Co 20.54 44.21 Lucky Cement 468.87 MCB Bank Ltd T-Bills (3 Mths) 01-Apr-2015 7.96% T-Bills (6 Mths) 01-Apr-2015 7.94% T-Bills (12 Mths) 01-Apr-2015 7.84% Discount Rate 21-Mar-2015 8.00% Kibor (1 Mth) 07-Apr-2015 7.91% Kibor (3 Mths) 07-Apr-2015 7.98% Kibor (6 Mths) 07-Apr-2015 8.00% 136.60 Kibor (9 Mths) 07-Apr-2015 8.24% 178.85 176.05 Kibor (1 Yr) 07-Apr-2015 8.25% 87.75 88.25 87.35 P.I.B (3 Yrs) 07-Apr-2015 8.20% P.I.B (5 Yrs) 07-Apr-2015 8.65% 415.05 422.70 403.30 P.I.B (10 Yrs) 07-Apr-2015 9.46% 19.50 20.80 21.05 20.30 P.I.B (15 Yrs) 07-Apr-2015 10.10% 46.32 463.25 457.65 477.25 485.60 471.60 P.I.B (20 Yrs) 07-Apr-2015 10.50% 258.88 42.32 257.25 255.65 260.75 262.60 259.10 P.I.B (30 Yrs) 07-Apr-2015 11.00% Maple Leaf Cement 58.85 65.15 56.40 53.95 60.70 62.55 58.25 National Bank 57.02 44.94 56.10 55.15 57.90 58.80 57.00 1.88 39.19 1.80 1.75 1.90 1.95 1.85 Oil & Gas Dev. XD 174.37 27.22 172.65 170.95 176.80 179.20 175.05 P.S.O. XD 362.52 48.03 358.40 354.25 367.35 372.15 363.20 24.12 49.23 25.10 26.05 24.45 NIB Bank Sui North Gas 86.85 20.00 23.45 22.80 CR = Yesterday's Closing Rate; RSI = 14 day RSI. RSI Indication: Less than 30 Indicate oversold position & Greater than 70 Indicate overbought position. 2 Commodities Crude Oil (brent)$/bbl Crude Oil (WTI)$/bbl Cotton $/lb Gold $/ozs Silver $/ozs Malaysian Palm $ GOLD (PMEX) PKR KHI Cotton 40Kg PKR 58.45 53.02 65.78 1,212.05 16.84 608 39,946 5,519 Wednesday, April 8, 2015 MTS Leverage Position Unrel Volume 7-Apr-15 6-Apr-15 Chg DoD % Symbol AHCL AICL AKBL ATRL BAFL BAHL BOP CHCC DGKC EFERT EFOODS ENGRO FABL FATIMA FCCL FFBL FFC GATM HUBC KEL LPCL LUCK MLCF NBP NCL NML OGDC PAEL PIOC PKGP PPL PSO PTC SEARL SNGP SSGC UBL TOTAL Unrel Value 60,047,600 2,810,679,909 59,297,900 2,827,969,357 1.26% -0.61% Unrel Volume Unrel Value 412,000 10,704,117 683,900 22,973,234 691,000 10,491,121 129,200 17,204,488 1,689,000 36,962,398 123,000 4,408,688 8,145,300 52,290,122 412,000 26,101,775 1,332,500 137,191,258 274,000 18,851,961 1,302,400 130,316,906 1,989,000 421,539,497 452,500 5,492,811 5,939,000 186,067,081 5,309,500 136,414,718 1,520,000 63,936,437 217,300 24,778,717 32,000 1,373,901 1,323,000 93,268,434 4,203,500 24,116,540 796,000 10,181,562 163,400 63,213,772 837,000 36,626,313 640,000 28,226,039 1,382,500 44,418,748 574,000 50,903,416 62,200 9,147,707 2,366,500 95,563,515 385,500 25,894,551 733,000 16,827,147 587,700 75,032,776 671,100 192,417,359 1,252,500 22,617,543 44,000 7,893,350 2,427,000 46,637,652 7,527,000 231,672,502 3,418,100 428,921,752 60,047,600 2,810,679,909 MTS Volume 8,446,000 8,888,300 -4.98% MTS Volume 46,700 970,500 6,500 28,500 180,000 31,500 293,500 32,500 441,700 17,000 267,000 782,500 480,500 91,200 208,000 100,500 48,000 13,500 1,814,500 56,000 73,000 33,200 94,200 903,000 45,800 55,100 257,500 23,500 312,000 734,500 4,100 8,446,000 MTS Value 406,740,067 444,295,115 -8.45% MTS Value 1,870,547 15,884,767 997,630 627,621 1,250,441 2,102,508 30,567,647 2,326,736 48,654,034 216,543 8,992,266 20,692,736 20,570,557 10,538,207 15,407,657 643,459 634,897 5,378,627 90,454,157 2,714,548 2,560,332 3,105,163 14,016,590 42,974,433 6,132,508 16,983,940 5,175,805 4,665,529 6,347,382 23,719,408 533,391 406,740,067 Total Volume 68,493,600 68,186,200 0.45% Total Volume 412,000 730,600 1,661,500 135,700 1,717,500 123,000 8,325,300 443,500 1,626,000 306,500 1,744,100 1,989,000 469,500 6,206,000 6,092,000 2,000,500 308,500 32,000 1,531,000 4,304,000 844,000 176,900 2,651,500 696,000 1,455,500 607,200 156,400 3,269,500 385,500 733,000 633,500 726,200 1,510,000 67,500 2,739,000 8,261,500 3,422,200 68,493,600 Total Value MTS Rate 3,217,419,976 3,272,264,471 -1.68% 11.53 11.57 -4 bps Total Value MTS Rate 10,704,117 24,843,781 26,375,887 18,202,119 37,590,018 4,408,688 53,540,563 28,204,283 167,758,905 21,178,697 178,970,940 421,539,497 5,709,354 195,059,348 157,107,454 84,506,994 35,316,923 1,373,901 108,676,092 24,759,999 10,816,458 68,592,399 127,080,470 30,940,587 46,979,081 54,008,579 23,164,297 138,537,949 25,894,551 16,827,147 81,165,284 209,401,299 27,793,348 12,558,879 52,985,034 255,391,910 429,455,144 3,217,419,976 11.60 11.50 13.47 11.22 12.48 11.64 11.29 11.18 11.36 14.00 11.25 11.07 11.31 11.22 11.48 11.90 12.65 11.23 11.50 11.74 10.98 11.32 11.31 12.49 11.19 11.31 11.30 13.81 11.66 11.31 12.73 11.53 CORPORATE OFFICE. Suite # 208 2nd floor, Business & Finance Centre, Main I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi, Pakistan. Tel: 111-293-293, 021-2467131-40 Email: [email protected] Risk Disclosure This report has been prepared by AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited and the information contained in the Product is intended solely for the recipient or attached skilled individuals of the firm. The Firm accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of individual, collateral or third parties in all over Pakistan and abroad as well. This report is provided solely for the information of professional advisers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report and AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report contents. All rights reserved. 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