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THE OUTLOOK
INTELLIGENCE FOR THE INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR
Oil Spillover
Crude oil price declines continue to reverberate through financial markets
2
PowerPicks Portfolio
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Focus Stock
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ETF Strategies
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Master List 2014
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Observatory
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Please see page 8 for required research
analyst certification disclosures.
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What’s Inside
numerous industries. Furthermore, declining
commodity prices in general will likely impart
downward pressure on brewing inflation
pressures arising from steadily tightening
U.S. labor market conditions.
To be sure, there are risks to our bullish
outlook. As has been the case for many
months now, we remain concerned about
sustained subpar economic growth abroad.
Media outlets have recently been quick to
point out that exports account for slightly
more than 10% of U.S. gross domestic
product (GDP), suggesting that the domestic
economy is relatively insulated from weakness overseas, but that statistic misses the
more pertinent point that non-U.S. sources
account for nearly half of S&P 500 revenues.
The outlook for economic growth abroad
— in Europe, China and South America in
particular — remain germane
to the 2015 S&P 500 earnings
outlook. Consensus 2015 S&P
500 earnings have now slipped to
just above $125 per share from
$127 three weeks ago and $132
at mid-year 2014. We now expect
forward earnings expectations to
steady near current levels, which
should help stabilize stock market
valuations. This is not to say that
major equity market indices can’t
continue to edge lower near-term,
especially if the European economic
9/1
West Texas Intermediate oil price fell as
low as $48.02 on January 6, from $57.10
on December 19. There is much debate
amongst investors about what a lower oil
price foreshadows. The bulls believe falling
crude oil prices are a positive development
for U.S. economic growth because they act
similarly to a tax cut for consumers (i.e.
fiscal stimulus). The pessimists think falling
commodity prices mean global deflation risks
are accelerating and the monetary policy
accommodation-driven bull market of the
past five years has run its course.
Global Markets Intelligence (GMI) Research
continues to align itself with the bulls. We
think the significant and largely unforeseen
collapse in crude oil prices represents not
just a tax cut for U.S. consumers, but for
the global economy as a whole, including
10/
January 12, 2015
Volume 87
Number 1
Excluding food & energy, seasonally adjusted, year-over-year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
(Continued on page 8)
2 S&P CAPITAL IQ THE OUTLOOK JANUARY 12, 2015
www.spoutlook.com
Intelligencer
S&P Capital IQ’s The Outlook
GLOBAL MARKETS INTELLIGENCE
Content Director Beth Piskora
Contributing Editors John Hackett, Robin Mordfin
Headlines, Highlights, and What’s on our Minds
RESEARCH & ANALYTICS
Director, Global Equity Research
Kenneth Leon
Managing Director, U.S. Equity Strategy
Sam Stovall
POWERPICKS 2015: The S&P Capital IQ PowerPicks Model Portfolio 2015 (see
table on page 3) represents the collective best ideas of S&P Capital IQ’s U.S.
equity research staff. The portfolio is “frozen,” meaning it will undergo no
changes during the year. The PowerPicks concept was launched on January 1,
1997. Since inception, the portfolio posted an average annual gain of 10.2%, outperforming the S&P 500’s annualized gain of 7.8% in the same period. In 2014,
the portfolio rose 8.0%, underperforming the S&P 500’s 13.7% increase.
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Copyright ©2015. All rights reserved. “Standard &
Poor’s,” “S&P,” “S&P 500,” “S&P MidCap 400,” and
“S&P SmallCap 600” are registered trademarks
of McGraw Hill Financial. Reproduction in whole or
in part prohibited except by permission. All rights
reserved. Officers of McGraw Hill Financial: Harold
W. McGraw, III, Chairman; Douglas Peterson, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jack F. Callahan,
Jr., Executive Vice President and Chief Financial
Officer; Elizabeth O’Melia, Senior Vice President,
Treasury Operations; Lucy Fato, Executive Vice
President and General Counsel. Because of the
possibility of human or mechanical error by S&P’s
sources, S&P, or others, S&P does not guarantee
the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any
information and is not responsible for any errors or
omissions or for the results obtained from the use
of such information.
PORTFOLIO CHANGES: SM Energy (SM 36.23 ) was deleted from the Plati-
num portfolio effective January 2, 2015. Corning (GLW 23.35 ) was added to,
while Waddell and Reed (WDR 46.38 NR) was removed from, the Neural Fair Value
25 portfolio, effective January 5, 2015. Autonation (AN 59.86 ) and Tenet
Healthcare (THC 52.16 ) were added to, while Archer-Daniel-Midland was
removed from, the Industry Momentum portfolio effective January 5, 2015. Fair
Isaac (FICO 72.72 ) was added to, while Qorvo (QRVO 67.69 ) was
deleted from, the Small/Midcap Growth portfolio effective January 12, 2015.
BUY GOOGLE WHILE THE PRICE IS LOW: GOOGLE (GOOGL 506.91 ) fell 4%
in 2014, notably underperforming gains in the S&P 500 and S&P 500 IT Sector
indices of 14% and 20%. We think this has contributed to an enhanced buying
opportunity. Despite concerns related to the ongoing shift to mobile, European
regulatory issues, and seemingly constant multi-faceted competition around the
world, we see GOOGL’s growth story as intact and valuation as compelling. We
also believe GOOGL could look to increasingly leverage its strong balance sheet,
with $60 billion in cash/short-term investments as of September, to generate
shareholder value.
GILEAD SCIENCES EXCLUSIVE WITH CVS: CVS Health announced it has given Gilead Sciences (GILD 102.30 ) hepatitis
C (HCV) drugs, Sovaldi and Harvoni exclusivity on its formularies. This follows AbbVie’s exclusive deal with Express Scripts,
for its recently approved HCV drug, Viekira. We are not surprised by the CVS/GILD deal and believe it removes some investor
concern over a potential ABBV/CVS deal. The companies have not disclosed a pricing discount, but we believe GILD will
provide a discount. Express Scripts and CVS are the 2 largest PBMs in the U.S., respectively, and we do not see any more
exclusive deals.
BEER INVENTORIES ON THE RISE: We are raising our 12-month target price on Constellation Brands (STZ 107.64 )
$24 to $125, applying a P/E of 26X, 20% above its 3-year average, to our FY 16 (Feb.) EPS estimate of $4.80, up from $4.70.
We are also increasing our FY 15 EPS estimate $0.15 to $4.35. Nov-Q adjusted EPS of $1.23 vs. $1.10 is $0.15 above our
estimate. While US wine sales were weaker than we expected, beer depletion trends remained favorable, growing 8%, with
distributors increasing inventory levels and consumer demand remaining strong. We see valuation (multiple expansion)
supported by the potential initiation of a dividend in FY 16. 
S&P CAPITAL IQ EVALUATION SYMBOLS
STARS Rankings

Our evaluation of the 12-month potential of stocks is indicated
by STARS:
 Strong Buy—Total return is expected to outperform
the total return of a relevant benchmark by a wide
margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis.
  Buy—Total return is expected to outperform the
total return of a relevant benchmark over the
coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an
absolute basis.
  Hold—Total return is expected to closely approximate
the total return of a relevant benchmark over the

coming 12 months, with shares generally rising in
price on an absolute basis.
 Sell—Total return is expected to underperform the
total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming
12 months, and the share price is not anticipated to
show a gain.
 Strong Sell—Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant benchmark by a
wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares
falling in price on an absolute basis.
NR Not ranked.
Quality & Fair Value Rankings
Our appraisals of the growth and stability of earnings and dividends
over the past 10 years for STARS and other companies are indicated by Quality Rankings:
For important legal disclosures, go to www.capitaliq.com/home/legal-disclaimers/sp-capital-iq-research-reports.
A+
A
A-
Highest
High
Above Avg.
B+ Average
B Below Avg.
B- Lower
C Lowest
D In reorganization
NR Not Ranked
Quality Rankings are not intended to predict stock price movements.
S&P Fair Value Rank: Using S&P’s exclusive proprietary quantitative model, stocks are ranked in one of five groups, ranging from
Group 5, listing the most undervalued stocks, to Group 1, the most
overvalued issues. Group 5 stocks are expected to generally outperform all others. The Fair Value rankings imply the following:
5-Stock is significantly undervalued; 4-Stock is moderately
undervalued; 3-Stock is fairly valued; 2-Stock is modestly overvalued; 1-Stock is significantly overvalued. As an input to the S&P
Mutual Fund Ranking, S&P evaluates the weighted average Fair
Value Rank of the underlying holdings of the mutual fund compared with its category.
www.spoutlook.com
S&P CAPITAL IQ THE OUTLOOK JANUARY 12, 2015
3
U.S. POWERPICKS PORTFOLIO 2015
STARS
CURRENT
PRICE ($)
12-MONTH
TARGET
PRICE ($)
FAIR
VALUE
RANK
QUALITY
RANK
COMPANY NAME / SYMBOL
SUB-INDUSTRY GROUP
Activision Blizzard / ATVI
Home Entertainment Software
5
19.25
24
5
NR
Aetna / AET
Managed Health Care
5
92.39
98
4
B+
AmerisourceBergen / ABC
Health Care Distributors
5
92.19
97
3
A-
Applied Materials / AMAT
Semiconductor Materials
5
24.21
28
2
B
Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.B
Multi-Sector Holdings
5
151.37
173
NR
B
Blackstone / BX
Asset Management & Custody Banks
5
33.71
40
2
NR
CBS / CBS
Broadcasting
5
53.74
60
2
B
Celgene / CELG
Biotechnology
5
115.05
122
4
B
CenturyLink / CTL
Integrated Telecommunication Services
5
38.86
49
NR
B
Cigna / CI
Managed Health Care
5
109.13
119
5
B+
Constellation Brands / STZ
Distillers and Vintners
5
107.64
125
NR
B
Discover Financial / DFS
Consumer Finance
5
64.35
74
5
NR
EOG Resources / EOG
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
5
86.88
115
1
B
Everest Re / RE
Reinsurance
5
174.96
210
5
NR
FedEx / FDX
Air Freight & Logistics
5
175.04
240
4
B+
FMC Technologies / FTI
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
5
43.43
69
5
B+
Fossil Group / FOSL
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
5
104.01
130
5
B+
Franklin Resources / BEN
Asset Management & Custody Banks
5
53.99
66
5
B+
General Motors / GM
Automobile Manufacturers
5
36.20
41
5
NR
Gilead Sciences / GILD
Biotechnology
5
102.30
135
5
B
Google / GOOGL
Internet Software & Services
5
506.91
650
4
B+
Helix Energy Solutions / HLX
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
5
20.31
29
NR
B-
Hewlett-Packard / HPQ
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
5
40.68
44
2
B+
ICON / ICLR
Life Sciences Tools & Services
5
53.70
72
4
NR
Johnson Controls / JCI
Auto Parts & Equipment
5
47.25
65
5
B+
Kroger / KR
Food Retail
4
66.20
68
3
B+
Lazard / LAZ
Investment Banking & Brokerage
5
48.76
60
NR
NR
Meritage / MTH
Homebuilding
5
36.70
42
5
B-
Morgan Stanley / MS
Investment Banking & Brokerage
5
37.49
45
5
B-
Owens-Illinois / OI
Metal & Glass Containers
5
25.46
32
4
B-
Qorvo / QRVO
Semiconductors
5
67.69
72
NR
B-
Qualcomm / QCOM
Communications Equipment
5
74.50
82
5
A-
South Jersey Industries / SJI
Gas Utilities
5
59.35
66
NR
A-
Sprouts Farmers Market / SFM
Food Retail
5
33.75
37
NR
NR
SunEdison / SUNE
Semiconductor Equipment
5
19.09
28
NR
C
Synnex / SNX
Technology Distributors
5
72.91
81
5
B+
Triumph / TGI
Aerospace & Defense
5
66.51
93
5
B
Tyson Foods / TSN
Packaged Foods & Meats
5
41.20
51
NR
B+
United Continental / UAL
Airlines
5
66.64
69
5
NR
United Rentals / URI
Trading Companies & Distributors
5
90.47
145
3
B-
Source: S&P Capital IQ. NR-Not ranked.
4 S&P CAPITAL IQ THE OUTLOOK JANUARY 12, 2015
www.spoutlook.com
FOCUS
STOCK
Joseph Agnese
S&P Capital IQ
Equity Analyst
Tyson Foods
Scale and diversification make a strong company
The Focus Stock for the week
ended January 11, 2015 is Tyson
Foods, which carries S&P Capital
IQ’s highest investment recommendation of 5-STARS or “strong
buy.” Tyson Foods is one of the
world’s largest suppliers of beef,
chicken, pork and prepared foods.
We believe the company is well
positioned to benefit over the next
12 months from growing global
demand for protein products and
a significant reduction in corn and
soybean based feed costs. Additionally, we see margins benefitting
from expansion of wider-margin
prepared food offerings following
the company’s $8.6 billion acquisition in August 2014 of Hillshire
Brands, producer of Jimmy Dean,
Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Sara Lee
and other branded products.
We look for the addition of $4
billion in revenues from Hillshire
Brands to help support 13% sales
growth in fiscal year 2015 (Sept.).
We believe Hillshire’s business fits
well with Tyson’s efforts to expand
its wider-margin prepared foods
business and believe there is a
potential for significant longterm benefits following the
successful completion of its integration. In fiscal year 2015, we
expect the prepared foods segment to experience about $225
million in cost and production
synergies from the integration
of Hillshire Brands due to operational improvements, purchasing
and distribution savings.
We think the company’s scale
and diversified product mix is a
competitive advantage. Tyson
produces about 20% of all
chicken, beef and pork in the U.S.
(on a pound basis). The company
holds the top U.S. market share
position in chicken production
(21% share based on ready to cook
pounds), beef slaughter capacity
(24% based on the number of
head of cattle), and is the second
largest pork producer (17% share
based on estimated daily U.S.
slaughter capacity, and only trails
Smithfield Foods’ 26% share).
Products are marketed through
various channels, including food
service operators (33% of sales in
fiscal year 2014), consumer retail
channels (44%) and internationally (17%). While the company’s
chicken operations are vertically
integrated (the company raises
and processes chicken), its beef
and pork operations are not (the
company purchases live cattle and
hogs).
With drought conditions in
the western U.S. leading to tight
industry cattle supplies and higher
live cattle prices, we look for the
TYSON FOODS
Ticker: TSN
S&P Ranking:     
Current Price: $40.39
12-Month Target Price: $51.00
Market Capitalization ($ Blns): $12.60
Price/Earnings Ratio: 11.81
Yield: .97
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
company to raise beef pricing in
fiscal year 2015 in order to provide
margin support. However, we see
chicken operations benefitting
from increased demand for chicken
as consumers shift to lower cost
alternatives to beef. Additionally,
we see significantly lower chicken
feed costs (68% of the cost of
raising a chicken) following strong
corn and soybean crop harvests
in calendar 2014, which should
support significant margin expansion. In pork, we look for a slowly
improving hog supply environment
in fiscal year 2015 to support pork
processing operating margins.
Hog industry supplies were tight in
fiscal year 2014 due to the spread
of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus
(PEDv).
Due to an increase in debt
load that was needed to fund the
acquisition of Hillshire, we look
for significantly higher interest
expense in fiscal year 2015. While
the company has been actively
repurchasing shares, spending
$250 million to repurchase 7.1
million shares in fiscal year 2014,
we expect the near term priority
for cash flow to be to deleverage
its balance sheet. The Board also
increased the quarterly dividend
33% to $0.10 per share in July
2014, up from the $0.075 previously reported.
Our 12-month target price of
$51 reflects a P/E multiple of
14.5X our calendar year 2015
EPS estimate of $3.50.
All told, we see EPS rising 16%
in fiscal year 2015, to $3.42, up
from operating EPS of $2.94 in
fiscal year 2014. 
www.spoutlook.com
S&P CAPITAL IQ THE OUTLOOK JANUARY 12, 2015
5
ETF
STRATEGIES
Todd Rosenbluth
S&P Capital IQ
Director of ETF
Research
ETFs That Might Repeat Success
Consider holdings before diving in
It was a great year for U.S. equity
ETFs in 2014, with $140 billion of
inflows and another double-digit
return for the S&P 500 index. However, many industry-focused ETFs
climbed much higher, aided by
offering exposure to some of the
better performing segments of the
market. So what’s ahead for some
of them as we start 2015?
S&P Capital IQ strongly believes
that past performance is not
indicative of future results and as
such when providing research and
rankings on more than 900 equity
ETFs we believe investors need to
look under the hood. While some
strong sector and industry focused
ETFs that shone in 2014 hold
stocks that are overvalued, utilities
for example, others have holdings
that remain attractive to our equity
research team.
For example, First Trust NYSE
Arca Biotechnology climbed 48% in
2014. However, the ETF’s ranking
is aided by a collection of stocks
viewed undervalued by S&P Capital
IQ equity analysts. A strong buy
opinion on small-cap NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP 41.90 ), a
top-10 holding, reflects a positive
global commercial outlook for
NPSP’s rare disease focused drug
portfolio. Further, the FDA action
date for NPSP’s Natpara to treat
hypoparathyroidism is January
24, 2015 and we think provides an
additional catalyst.
Meanwhile, a strong buy-ranked
large-cap Celgene’s (CELG 113.05
) Revlimid sales grew a
robust 16% in the recent third
quarter, benefiting from increased
duration of therapy and S&P
Capital IQ sees more growth drivers
as CELG has registration filings
for more indications in the U.S.
and Europe. S&P Capital IQ is also
encouraged by the Phase II data
for GED 0301 to treat Crohn’s
disease, which we believe showed
better remission rates than competing drugs on the market.
SPDR S&P Transportation rose
34% in 2014, but the industrial ETF
earns a top ranking of Overweight.
This stems in part from its holdings that S&P Capital IQ views to
be attractively valued. One such
holding, Swift Transportation
(SWFT 27.81 ), is North
America’s largest truckload carrier
that is expected it to capture market share from small carriers that
are struggling financially. Capacity
constraints will also contribute
to rising freight rates and cash
flow, in our view, as the economy
steadily improves.
Meanwhile, for FedEx (FDX
173.27 ), we believe holi-
day volumes and pricing remained
strong. While FDX expects to adjust
its fuel surcharge to reflect lower
oil prices, we still expect a tailwind
in the second half of its fiscal year
from oil. S&P Capital IQ continues
to believe FDX is well positioned for
an improving U.S. economy. XTN’s
ranking is also helped by bullish
technical trends and a modest
expense ratio.
iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF
rose 30% in 2014, yet it also holds
stocks that are generally viewed as
undervalued by S&P Capital IQ. One
such position is in Intel (INTC 36.45
), which provided in November a 2015 business outlook with
stronger revenue growth than S&P
Capital IQ had originally expected.
Further the company raised its
annual dividend 7%. We found
INTC’s guidance to be encouraging
and indicating momentum within
the PC and data center units.
Another undervalued holding for
SOXX is in Qualcomm (QCOM 73.74
). At a November investor day conference, the company
highlighted key growth drivers that
supports 8% to 10% annualized
5-year revenue growth and with
wider margins and faster EPS
growth in our opinion. S&P Capital
IQ believes QCOM remains well
positioned for growth. 
SMART FUNDS FOR CAREFUL INVESTORS
FUND NAME / SYMBOL
RANK
CURRENT
PRICE ($)
First Trust NYSE Arca Biotech. Index Fund / FBT
iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF / SOXX
SPDR S&P Transportation ETF Trust / XTN
MW
MW
MW
104.70
92.01
104.75
Source: S&P Capital IQ. MW - Marketweight. *Average annualized.
TOTAL RETURN (%)
YIELD
(%)
1-YEAR
3-YEAR*
5-YEAR*
EXPENSE
RATIO (%)
ASSETS
($ MLNS)
.05
1.56
.39
48.36
29.39
29.71
44.65
23.78
32.56
29.04
14.49
NA
.6
.47
.35
2,113.62
606.20
579.48
6 S&P CAPITAL IQ THE OUTLOOK JANUARY 12, 2015
www.spoutlook.com
Beth Piskora
S&P Capital IQ
Editorial
Master List 2014 Performance
One portfolio beat its benchmark in 2014
In 2014, one of our three Master
List groups, which are intended to
be low-turnover portfolios for longterm investors, outperformed its
benchmark. A second portfolio kept
pace with its benchmark, while a third
underperformed.
The Small/Mid-Cap Growth portfolio
delivered an 18.5% gain, excluding
dividends, in a year when the S&P
Mid Cap 400 rose by 8.2%. The HighQuality Capital Appreciation portfolio
kept pace with the S&P 500; both
were up 11% for the year. The Total
Return Portfolio, which features stocks
with higher yields, delivered a total
return (including dividends) of 10.5%
compared with a 13.7% total return
for the S&P 500.
Thirty-three new stocks entered the
portfolios in 2014; 12 in Total Return,
16 in High Quality Capital Appreciation,
and five in Small/Mid-Cap Growth. The
Outlook is available online to subscribers on the Saturday before the cover
date, but we count performance from
the closing price on the Monday cover
date (or next trading day when Monday
is a holiday). In this way, readers have
a full trading day to review our changes before we consider the stock added
for performance tracking purposes.
The High-Quality Capital Appreciation Portfolio was launched on May 23,
2003. To enter the High-Quality Capital
Appreciation Portfolio, a stock must
have an S&P Quality Ranking of A- or
better, which indicates an above-average 10-year history of earnings and
dividend growth and stability. A recent
S&P Capital IQ study showed that over
the long term, stocks with the best
Quality Rankings posted higher profit
margins, higher returns on capital,
and stronger cash flows than lower
quality stocks. Stocks must have a
four-STARS or five-STARS ranking to
enter this portfolio. From inception to
December 31, 2014, the portfolio had
an average annual gain of 7.4% versus
7.1% for the S&P 500.
The Total Return Portfolio was
launched on May 23, 2003. To enter
the Total Return Portfolio, which is
focused on maximizing long-term
total return, a stock must have a
current yield at least equal to or
greater than that of the S&P 500.
The company must not have cut its
regular dividend in the last five years
at the time of entry into the portfolio,
and that dividend must be secure in
the opinion of the S&P analyst who
follows the stock. There is no S&P
Quality Ranking requirement for this
portfolio. Since inception, the portfolio
had an average annual gain of 12.8%,
outperforming its benchmark’s average annual gain of 9.3%.
The Small/Mid-Cap Portfolio was
launched on May 23, 2003. To enter
the Small/Mid-Cap Growth Portfolio, a
stock must have a market capitalization of $4 billion or less, be ranked
4-STARS or 5-STARS, and have good
long-term prospects in the opinion of
the S&P analyst who follows it. From
inception to December 31, 2014, the
portfolio rose at an average annual rate
of 12.7%, compared with 10.5% for its
benchmark, the S&P Mid-Cap 400.
HIGH-QUALITY CAPITAL APPRECIATION PORTFOLIO
SYMBOL
COMPANY NAME
CNI
CE
COST
DIS
EWBC
GE
JBHT
JNJ
MCK
MYL
NKE
QCOM
RJF
SJI
SU
Canadian Natlional Railway
Celanese
Costco Wholesale
Disney
East West
General Electric
Hunt Transport
Johnson & Johnson
McKesson
Mylan
NIKE
Qualcomm
Raymond James
South Jersey Industries
Suncor Energy
Source: S&P Capital IQ. All data are as of Thursday’s close.
ENTRY DATE
ENTRY
PRICE ($)
CURRENT
PRICE ($)
12-MONTH
TARGET
PRICE ($)
STARS
QUALITY
RANK
02/24/2014
04/28/2014
02/24/2014
11/14/2011
11/10/2014
02/24/2014
07/21/2014
07/22/2013
08/16/2010
05/26/2009
10/13/2014
05/28/2013
04/28/2014
11/10/2014
01/27/2014
56.23
59.72
113.94
36.12
37.36
25.29
78.08
92.28
60.85
13.13
85.39
64.07
49.08
57.98
32.65
67.40
58.92
145.56
93.79
38.33
24.37
81.26
106.39
217.20
56.65
97.06
74.50
55.65
59.35
30.32
90.00
74.00
156.00
98.00
40.00
32.00
92.00
120.00
216.00
64.00
104.00
82.00
65.00
66.00
39.00
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
5
4
A+
AA
A+
AAAA+
AAA+
AAAA-
www.spoutlook.com
S&P CAPITAL IQ THE OUTLOOK JANUARY 12, 2015
7
Master List 2014 Performance (Continued)
S&P’s Senior Portfolio Group may
replace any stock in these three
portfolios with another stock at any
time, for reasons that can include a
downgrade in the S&P STARS and S&P
Quality Ranking of the constituents or
other factors.
The portfolios were equally weighted
at inception. When a new stock is purchased, the number of shares of the
new stock is equal to the total market
value of the portfolio at prior month’s
end divided by the number of stocks
in the portfolio at the prior month end
divided by the price of the new stock
at the close of the day it was added.
When a stock is “sold” from a portfolio, the entire position is sold; there
are no partial sales. In essence, the
portfolio is equally weighted without
adjustments for rebalancing. 
TOTAL RETURN PORTFOLIO
SYMBOL
COMPANY NAME
ENTRY
PRICE ($)
T
BAX
BA
CVX
CCE
COP
CMI
F
INTC
ITC
KRFT
LAZ
LXK
PSA
TROW
AT&T
Baxter International
Boeing
Chevron
Coca-Cola Enterprises
ConocoPhillips
Cummins
Ford Motor
Intel
ITC Holdings
Kraft Foods
Lazard
Lexmark International
Public Storage
T.Rowe Price
35.65
66.95
123.06
46.08
47.25
79.34
142.17
15.18
34.23
22.42
55.12
45.05
42.97
175.49
61.01
ENTRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE ($)
12-MONTH
TARGET
PRICE ($)
STARS
YIELD (%)
07/28/2014
01/22/2013
07/28/2014
06/07/2004
02/24/2014
08/18/2014
08/18/2014
02/24/2014
07/28/2014
02/14/2011
02/24/2014
12/30/2013
03/17/2014
07/28/2014
04/23/2012
33.50
73.30
131.80
110.41
44.07
64.93
145.82
15.42
36.69
41.78
63.99
48.76
40.53
197.90
84.51
41.00
90.00
162.00
135.00
49.00
81.00
180.00
17.00
39.00
45.00
68.00
60.00
51.00
203.00
92.00
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
4
5.67
2.91
2.81
3.97
2.29
4.61
2.18
3.32
2.50
1.56
3.48
2.50
3.65
2.87
2.11
ENTRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE ($)
12-MONTH
TARGET
PRICE ($)
STARS
QUALITY
RANK
12/19/2011
04/07/2014
12/03/2008
01/12/2015
03/25/2013
07/28/2014
01/22/2013
06/24/2013
03/25/2013
09/15/2008
12/30/2013
10/21/2013
06/24/2013
11/03/2014
11/03/2014
27.32
72.67
48.19
72.72
101.79
20.31
53.70
15.70
42.92
111.24
25.72
79.25
19.09
28.33
77.42
39.00
80.00
50.00
83.00
124.00
29.00
72.00
18.00
50.00
125.00
32.00
130.00
28.00
33.00
83.00
4
4
5
4
4
5
5
4
5
4
4
4
5
5
4
B+
NR
NR
B+
B
BNR
B
C
C
BNR
C
NR
B+
Source: S&P Capital IQ. All data are as of Thursday’s close.
SMALL/MID-CAP GROWTH PORTFOLIO
SYMBOL
COMPANY NAME
ENTRY
PRICE ($)
ATW
CLW
DAL
FICO
HAR
HLX
ICLR
KELYA
NPSP
SBAC
SBGI
SSYS
SUNE
SWFT
UNFI
Atwood Oceanics
Clearwater Paper
Delta Air Lines
Fair Isaac
Harman Intl
Helix Energy Solutions Grp
ICON Plc
Kelly Services'A'
NPS Pharmaceuticals
SBA Communications'A'
Sinclair Broadcast Group'A'
Stratasys Ltd
SunEdison Inc
Swift Transportation
United Natural Foods
37.21
61.89
8.03
NA
44.48
26.79
28.51
17.03
9.88
29.62
34.71
111.38
7.52
24.75
67.99
Source: S&P Capital IQ. All data are as of Thursday’s close.
8 S&P CAPITAL IQ THE OUTLOOK JANUARY 12, 2015
www.spoutlook.com
The Observatory
Selected actions for December 22 to January 9
NEW
STARS
OLD
STARS
STARS
RANKING
DATE
Apollo Global Management / APO
3
NR
CommVault Systems / CVLT
3
E-TRADE Financial / ETFC
PRICE ($)
12 MONTH
TARGET
PRICE ($)
1/8/2015
23.82
4
12/23/2014
3
4
eBay / EBAY
4
Monsanto / MON
QUALITY
RANK
FAIR VALUE
RANK
25.00
NR
NR
48.95
57.00
NR
2
12/29/2014
23.58
25.00
B-
3
5
12/29/2014
56.41
61.00
B
4
3
4
1/7/2015
119.19
122.00
A
4
Neurocrine Biosciences / NBIX
3
5
1/8/2015
27.48
30.00
C
NR
Nissan Motor / NSANY
4
3
12/24/2014
17.93
20.00
NR
5
PulteGroup / PHM
3
4
12/29/2014
22.39
22.00
B-
2
RPM International / RPM
3
2
1/8/2015
46.87
47.00
B+
2
Transocean / RIG
3
4
1/8/2015
16.27
18.00
NR
NR
Walgreens Boots Alliance / WBA
3
2
12/23/2014
77.55
75.00
A-
4
COMPANY NAME / SYMBOL
Source: S&P Capital IQ. NR-Not ranked.
For intraday STARS changes, subscribers can visit www.spoutlook.com and click on the STOCKS tab.
The Observatory provides a selection of analytical actions — upgrades, downgrades, initiations — from S&P Capital IQ. Stocks featured in the Observatory are
selected by The Outlook according to factors including, but not limited to, newsworthiness, capitalization, and inclusion in a portfolio published by The Outlook.
Please note that all investments carry risks. Investors should seek financial advice before investing.
All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analysts’ personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers.
No part of the analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Oil Spillover (Continued from cover)
outlook further deteriorates, but the
lower stock prices go, the more
attractive the S&P 500 index will
appear to us.
Meanwhile, the U.S. inflation outlook
has now been compounded by the
rapid decline in crude oil prices and,
by extension, its potential influence
on household energy expenditures. As
the U.S. unemployment rate continues to fall, financial markets will be
sensitive to the net macro influence
on core inflation arising from rising
household discretionary income vs.
the deflationary side effects of falling
energy prices. We are interested to
see if ascending disposable income
due to the “energy tax cut” can
produce even a slight increase in the
velocity of money flowing through the
domestic U.S. economy, leading to an
accelerated pace of improvement in
household discretionary spending patterns. This prospective change would
likely reinforce support within the Fed
for a mid-year 2015 hike in the Fed
funds target rate. This debate will of
course be held within the context of
the underlying trend in core inflation,
which at the moment remains quite
benign (see cover chart). 
—Robert Keiser
Vice President
Global Markets Intelligence