Event Comment Macro Report Friday, January 16, 2015 SNB removes CHF minimum exchange rate as Eurozone QE looms ahead CHF cap seen as unsustainable, hinting at Eurozone QE Key data: ■ ■ ■ ■ The Swiss National Bank (SNB) discontinued its minimum exchange rate of 1.20 vs the Euro SNB cut deposit rates by 0.5 ppt to -0.75% in effort to deter excessive appreciation of CHF CHF appreciated sharply, up 20% vs the Euro, 1.5% vs the USD SNB action strongly hints at a large-scale Eurozone QE, we view odds of QE in next week’s meeting have risen China Merchants Securities (HK) Co. Ltd Hong Kong Equity Research Lynn SONG +852 3189 6122 [email protected] Dr. Cliff Zhao, CFA +852 3189 6126 [email protected] Dr. David Xie +86 755 83295524 [email protected] Key forecasts U.S. Comment: % By removing the minimum exchange rate, the SNB ended a three year policy designed to defend the Swiss economy from overvaluation and excessive safe haven flows. Though the central bank official statement stated that “overvaluation has decreased,” it is unlikely this was the core driver behind the decision. More tellingly, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan indicated this cap had been scrapped due to being “unsustainable.” GDP The central bank concurrently cut deposit rates further from -0.25% to -0.75% (55 bp lower than the ECB) in an effort to keep monetary conditions accommodative and also prevent an excessive appreciation of the CHF, but the immediate impact was vastly overshadowed by the scrapping of the minimum exchange rate. The CHF sharply appreciated following the announcement, as the timing took the markets completely by surprise as just weeks ago the central bank highlighted the policy’s continuing importance of the minimum exchange rate. The biggest catalyst for this policy change is external factors will make a hard ceiling for the CHF too difficult to defend. With that said, the SNB will likely still face enormous pressure to defend the CHF moving forward. It is likely the SNB will cut deposit rates further negative if the CHF continues to appreciate too strongly. Given the close ties between the SNB and the ECB, one of the key implications of the unexpected timing of the Swiss announcement moving forward is that a Eurozone QE of significant scale is likely soon on the way (market estimates a scale of EUR 500-600 bn), with increasing probability it will be announced at the nd ECB’s January 22 meeting. Risks for delayed action remain. Though Draghi insisted Greek elections had “absolutely no impact” on ECB decisions, with the Greek elections just days after the ECB meeting and the anti-austerity and reform Syriza party still leading in the polls, policymakers are likely shying away from purchasing Greek assets as part of a QE program. This may lead to a workaround such as purchasing only investment grade assets. CPI Unemployment Current Account /GDP Fiscal balance /GDP Policy rate Dollar index 14E 15E 2.3 2.9 1.7 5.8 -2.4 -2.9 0.25 88.5 1.5 5.6 -2.3 -2.6 1.00 97.0 14E 15E 0.9 0.9 0.5 11.5 2.3 -2.5 0.05 1.25 0.5 11.3 2.5 -2.3 0.05 1.10 14E 15E 0.8 1.1 2.8 3.6 0.1 -8.0 0.1 118.0 1.5 3.4 0.9 -7.8 0.1 121.0 Eurozone % GDP CPI Unemployment Current Account /GDP Fiscal balance /GDP Policy rate EUR/USD Japan % GDP CPI Unemployment Current Account /GDP Fiscal balance /GDP Policy rate USD/JPY Source: Bloomberg,CMS(HK) Momentum appears to be shifting for ECB action at next week’s meeting; from the perspective of economic data, namely the inflation outlook amid still sliding crude oil prices, there is a strong case for immediate QE. If the ECB does not announce QE, there should be some disappointment in the market. We view odds for an ECB QE announcement next week are significant, and even if QE is delayed it will likely be delayed to the March 5th meeting at latest. To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 1 事件点评 招商证券(香港)有限公司 证券研究部 宏观报告 2015 年 1 月 16 日(星期五) 欧元区QE即将到来,瑞士央行取消瑞郎 汇率上限 瑞郎上限政策不可持续 ,暗示欧元区QE如箭在弦 宋林 +852 3189 6122 [email protected] 赵文利博士, CFA +852 3189 6126 [email protected] 主要观点: ■ ■ ■ 瑞士央行终止了欧元兑瑞郎1.2的汇率下限 ■ 瑞士央行的举动强烈暗示了欧元区大规模QE政策即将到来,我们认 为下周欧洲央行会议推出QE的机率大增 瑞士央行下调存款利率0.5个百分点至-0.75%避免瑞郎升值过度 瑞郎汇率飙升,瑞郎兌欧元汇率暴涨20%,瑞郎兌美元汇率亦有1.5% 增幅 点评︰ 通过取消汇率下限,瑞士央行结束了为期三年的防止避险资金过度流入导致 经济过热的货币政策。尽管央行官方声明称“经济过热已经缓和”,但这不 太可能是此次决定的主导因素。更值得关注的是,瑞士央行主席托马斯•乔 丹(Thomas Jordan)暗示瑞郎汇率上限由于其“不可持续性”而被宣告作 废。 为了维持较为宽松的货币政策及防止瑞郎过度升值,瑞士央行同时将存款利 率进一步从-0.25%下调至-0.75%(低于欧洲央行55个基点),但这一举措 的即时影响由于汇率下限的取消而大打折扣。由于几周之前瑞士央行仍在强 调坚持汇率下限的重要性,市场完全没有预期到此次政策公布的时间点,于 是瑞郎在取消汇率下限之后大幅升值。此次政策改革的最大催化剂是外部压 力使瑞郎原有上限难以维持。瑞士央行因此将面临防止瑞郎继续升值的巨大 压力。如果瑞郎继续保持强劲的升值态势,瑞士央行很有可能进一步下调存 款利率至更低的负值。 谢亚轩博士 +86 755 8329 5524 [email protected] 主要预测 美国 14E 15E GDP 2.3 2.9 CPI 1.7 5.8 1.5 5.6 外贸顺差/GDP -2.4 -2.3 财政赤字/GDP -2.9 -2.6 央行基准利率 0.25 1.00 美元指数 88.5 97.0 % 失业率 欧元区 14E 15E GDP 0.9 0.9 CPI 0.5 11.5 0.5 11.3 % 失业率 外贸顺差/GDP 2.3 2.5 财政赤字/GDP -2.5 -2.3 鉴于瑞士央行与欧洲央行的关系较为紧密,此次瑞士方面在出乎市场意外的 时间点上宣布重要举措,暗示了欧元区大规模的QE可能很快就要推出(市 场预计5千亿至6千亿欧元的规模),极有可能在1月22日的欧洲央行会议上 推出。推迟计划的风险仍然存在。尽管德拉吉(Draghi)坚称希腊大选对欧 洲央行的决定“毫无影响”,但是希腊大选仅仅在欧洲央行会议几天之后举 行,反对紧缩和改革的Syriza政党在民意调查中依然处于领先地位,因此政 策制定者可能会在QE中避开购买希腊资产。这可能导致一些变通,例如仅 仅购买投资级资产。 央行基准利率 0.05 0.05 欧元/美元 1.25 1.10 外贸顺差/GDP 0.1 0.9 下周欧洲央行会议的行动的推动力可能会发生转变;从经济数据角度来讲, 主要是通胀前景在原油价格影响下仍在下滑,立即推出QE势在必行。如果 欧洲央行暂不推行QE,市场可能会表现出失望情绪。我们预期下周ECB会 议推出QE的可能性比较大,否则,极有可能最晚推迟于3月5日的会议。 财政赤字/GDP -8.0 -7.8 彭博终端报告下载: CMHK <GO> 日本 14E 15E GDP 0.8 1.1 CPI 2.8 3.6 1.5 3.4 % 失业率 央行基准利率 美元/日元 0.1 0.1 118.0 121.0 资料来源:彭博,招商证券(香港) 2 Friday, January 16, 2015 Chart 1: Sharp appreciation of the CHF following the removal of the minimum exchange rate, up 20% vs EUR Chart 2: Swiss benchmark rate was cut 0.5 bp, deflation is a concern in Switzerland and Europe at large 2.0 4.0 1.8 3.0 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.2 USD/CHF EUR/CHF Benchmark rate (%) 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 00 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 -2.0 02 0.6 01 -1.0 00 0.8 01 0.0 1.0 CPI (YoY %) Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) Chart 3: Swiss exports gradually adjusted to strong CHF, but may face challenges after minimum rate is scrapped Chart 4: SNB widened interest rate differential with ECB in effort to defend the CHF from excessive appreciation 1.2 -5 0.5 1.1 -10 0.0 1 -15 (0.5) 0.9 -20 (1.0) 0.8 Switzerland Benchmark Deposit Rate (%), LHS ECB Benchmark Deposit Rate (%), LHS EUR/CHF, RHS Exports growth (YoY %), RHS USD/CHF, LHS EUR/CHF, LHS Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) 15 1.0 14 0 13 1.3 12 5 11 1.4 1.5 10 2.0 09 10 08 1.5 07 15 06 1.6 2.5 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 0.6 1.7 3.0 05 0.8 3.5 20 04 1.0 25 03 1.2 1.8 02 1.4 4.0 01 1.6 30 00 1.8 Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 3 Friday, January 16, 2015 Chart 5: Gap between current levels and ECB target means there is room for large-scale QE 3,500 Chart 6: ECB eligible assets breakdown shows any large scale QE will have to be centered on sovereign bonds Asset Backed Securities, 684.2, 5% ECB Target 3,000 Covered bonds , 1489.1, 11% 2,500 Central Government Securities, 6578.9, 47% 2,000 Others, 3454.1, 24% 1,500 1,000 Corporate bonds, 1412.8, 10% 500 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 0 Regional government securities, 433.9, 3% ECB Total Assets (EUR bn) Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) (1Q14, EUR bn) Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) Table 1: ECB 2015 meeting schedule, we view odds are ECB will announce QE by March at latest Date Meeting 22/1/2015 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt 5/3/2015 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Cyprus 19/3/2015 General Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt 15/4/2015 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt 3/6/2015 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt 18/6/2015 General Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt 16/7/2015 Governing Council monetary policy meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt 3/9/2015 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt 17/9/2015 General Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt 22/10/2015 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Malta 3/12/2015 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt 17/12/2015 General Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt Sources: ECB, CMS (HK) To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 4 Friday, January 16, 2015 Investment Ratings Rating Definition OVERWEIGHT Expected to outperform the market index by > 10% over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Expected to outperform or underperform the market index by 10% or less over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Expected to underperform the market index by >10% over the next 12 months Analyst Disclosure The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Regulatory Disclosure Please refer to the important disclosures on our website http://www.newone.com.hk/cmshk/en/disclosure.html. Disclaimer This document is prepared by China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Limited (“CMS HK”). CMS HK is a licensed corporation to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571). This document is for information purpose only. Neither the information nor opinion expressed shall be construed, expressly or impliedly, as an advice, offer or solicitation of an offer, invitation, advertisement, inducement, recommendation or representation of any kind or form whatsoever to buy or sell any security, financial instrument or any investment or other specific product. The securities, instruments or strategies discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors, and certain investors may not be eligible to participate in some or all of them. Certain services and products are subject to legal restrictions and cannot be offered worldwide on an unrestricted basis and/or may not be eligible for sale to all investors. CMS HK is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States and its products and services are not available to U.S. persons except as permitted under SEC Rule 15a-6. The information and opinions, and associated estimates and forecasts, contained herein have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable. CMS HK, its holding or affiliated companies, or any of its or their directors, officers or employees (“CMS Group”) do not represent or warrant, expressly or impliedly, that it is accurate, correct or complete and it should not be relied upon. CMS Group will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this document or any of the content thereof. The contents and information in this document are only current as of the date of their publication and will be subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Opinions expressed herein may differ or be contrary to those expressed by other business divisions or other members of CMS Group as a result of using different assumptions and/or criteria. This document has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and investment objectives of the persons who receive it. Use of any information herein shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, take financial and/or tax advice as to the implications (including tax) of investing in any of the securities or products mentioned in this document, and make their own investment decisions without relying on this publication. CMS Group may have a long or short position, make markets, act as principal or agent, or engage in transactions in securities of companies referred to in this document and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services or provide advisory or other services for those companies. This document is for the use of intended recipients only and this document may not be reproduced, distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose without the prior consent of CMS Group. CMS Group will not be liable for any claims or lawsuits from any third parties arising from the use or distribution of this document. This document is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This document is not directed at you if CMS Group is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. In particular, this document is only made available to certain US persons to whom CMS Group is permitted to make available according to US securities laws, but cannot otherwise be made available, distributed or transmitted, whether directly or indirectly, into the US or to any US person. This document also cannot be distributed or transmitted, whether directly or indirectly, into Japan and Canada and not to the general public in the People’s Republic of China (for the purpose of this document, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan). Hong Kong China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. Address: 48/F, One Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong Tel: +852 3189 6888 Fax: +852 3101 0828 To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 5
© Copyright 2024