Our strategy in todays challenging market Oslo 15 January 2015 The company  Arise is one of the largest independent wind power operators in Sweden with the business model to: – Sell electricity produced by own and co-owned onshore wind farms – Develop, sell and manage wind farms for others – 450 MW under management (10% of the Swedish wind market), of which Arise own 260 MW  90% of the projects have been built 2009 – 2013 (decision 2011 or before) 2 Dramatic market price development Swedish electricity and certificate spot price 2009-2014YTD SEK / MWh 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 ∆ ˜ 𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑 600 500 400 300 All in price for delivery Y 2016 200 100 0 Aug-09 Aug-10 Electricity price. Spot Aug-11 Aug-12 Certificate price. Spot Aug-13 Aug-14 Average 2009-2014 Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe, SKM, Bloomberg 3 Lower CAPEX cost and lower interest rates  CAPEX cost (in SEK/kWh) has decreased with approx. 30% compared to 2009 due to: – – – – Stronger SEK vs. EURO Higher towers and larger rotors leads to improved MWh per MW installed Better projects with higher mean wind speed Price pressure on turbine suppliers and sub suppliers  Lower interest rates but… at the same time, higher bank margins and bank fees – Marginal lower cost for bank financing 2014 vs. 2009 i.e. approx. 1- 2 % (incl swap’s) – On top of this, increased demand from the lenders;  Covenants  Hedge demand 4 Net effect  Lower income forward 2016 vs. actual 2009 - 250 SEK/MWh  Lower specific CAPEX cost (30%) + 125 SEK/MWh  Lower interest rates (1,5%, 60% gearing) + 25 SEK/MWh  Net - 100 SEK/MWh  Conclusion:  The total income has to increase by 100 SEK/MWh in order to reach the same level of return 2016 as 2009 for a new investor in the sector or…  The investor has to accept a lower return  Arise return requirement for new investments is 10% project IRR (on total investment)  Not likely to be meet with an income of 500 SEK/MWh  The company has to adopt to a new price environment and develop the strategy and business concept 5 Strategic decision Autumn 2013  Reduce cost & improve production in existing assets  Adapt loan financing to a new and lower price environment; – Refinancing existing loans – Lower net debt through amortization and sale of operational assets  Low own investment activity 2014/2015, instead: – Sell projects ready to be built – Project management for sold projects as well as management during operation – More MW’s under management  Economies of scale and lower cost also for management of own operational assets  Focus on cash flow  Investigate the possibility to spread the risk geographically and technically  Position our self for growth of our own production portfolio, financed with own generated cash flow, from 2016 and beyond given: a) Increased total income and/or b) Extremely good projects with low CAPEX costs 6 What have we done since Autumn 2013?  Reduced OH costs (staff 35%, consultants others) approx. 10 MSEK/y  Project loans in 10 projects (3 banks) replaced with a corporate bond – 5 years – Re payment of loan 80 MSEK – Re payment of old SWAP contracts 70 MSEK  Unsecured bond refinanced – 3 years & 318 MSEK instead of 350 MSEK  Stjärnarp (operational assets) sold to Kumbro, 5,6 MW – 83 MSEK – Net debt reduced with 83 MSEK – Cash flow effect 2014 of 43 MSEK – Management during operation  Brotorp (ready to be built) sold to BlackRock 46,2 MW – Project management as well as management during operation – Cash flow effect 2014/2015 approx. 55 MSEK  Management contract for Storun Windfarm (Whitehelm) – operational asset 30 MW 7 Proof of strategy  Financing secured and adapted to current market situation – Net debt reduction with 265 MSEK will improve future cash flow  Sale of projects, both operational & ready to be built, even in current tough market situation  Lower OH costs  Economies of scale through more MW’s under management (30%) 8 Outlook 2015  Sale of 20 MW operational assets during H1 – Bohult – Skogaby 12,8 MW / 43,2 GWh / 3 350 full load hours 7,2 MW / 24,2 GWh / 3 360 full load hours  Sale of approx. 50 to 100 MW ready to be built – Mombyåsen 33,0 MW /108 GWh / 3 270 full load hours – Project management – Asset management  Production optimization Jädraås  Permit application in Scotland – Two projects 150 – 200 MW – Plus some smaller turbines  Good result & cash flow  Preparation for expansion (or dividend) 2016  9