Yansab Petrochemical Industries Sector YANSAB AB - 2290.SE 14 January 2015 Yanbu National Petrochemical Co. (Yansab) Recommendation Fair Value (SAR) Overweight 55.00 Price as of 13 January 2015 Expected Return 40.56 35.3% Company Data Tadawul Symbol 52 Week High (SAR) 52 Week Low (SAR) YTD Change 3-Month Average Volume (Thousand Shares) Market Cap. (SAR Million) Market Cap. (USD Million) Outstanding Shares (Million Shares) 2290.SE 77.75 38.50 -14.6% 968 22,866 6,098 562.5 Yansab Tadawul Petrochemicals Index Yanbu National Petrochemical Company (Yansab) released major KPIs for FY14 reporting a 39.71% increase in its bottom line in Q4 2014 hitting SAR 617.8 million up from SAR 442.2 million in Q4 2013. The figure exceeded Bloomberg’s consensus of SAR 584.4 million. Yansab attributed the significant growth in net earnings to comparatively higher sales volumes taking into account the temporary shutdown of production facilities in Q4 2013. In comparison with Q3 2014, net income tumbled 10.63% on lower selling prices. On an annual basis, FY14 bottom line shrank 6.31% reaching SAR 2,477.8 million versus SAR 2,644.6 million in 2013 driven by lower selling prices, higher production cost and Zakat provisions. Meanwhile, gross profit (GP) posted SAR 773.2 million in Q4 2014, falling 8.48% QoQ and increasing 31.14% YoY, while slumping 4.27% in FY14 to SAR 3,087 million. Elsewhere, operating profit (EBIT) in Q4 2014 mounted 33.09% YoY and declined 9.2% QoQ ending the quarter at SAR 712.3 million. Over the whole year, the figure shifted down 5.02% totaling SAR 2,842.8 million. Latest Developments Major Shareholders ( > 5% ) Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) General Organization for Social Insurance FY14 Update 51.00% 11.92% Tadawul Index In January 2015, Eng. Mutlaq Al Morished, chairman and board member, resigned and was replaced by Mr. Yousof bin Abdullah Al Bonyan. In December, the company`s board proposed a cash dividend of SAR 1.5 per share for 2H 2014. 140 Our Comment 130 120 Absent the effect of the temporary shutdown in Q4 2013, the preliminary results will obviously manifest negative impact from lower selling prices in the fourth quarter. 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 For more information you may contact: Turki Fadaak Research & Advisory Manager [email protected] Or Albilad Capital Head Office: Tel: Fax: P.O. Box: Riyadh +966 11 203 9892 +966 11 479 8453 140 11411 Our website: www.albilad-capital.com/en/research Prices of petrochemical products witnessed a remarkable downward trend in Q4 2014 in parallel with record low oil prices in five years. Average ethylene price dropped from USD 1,493/ton in Q3 2014 to USD 1,177/ton, while average propylene price tum-bled from USD1,361/ ton in Q3 2014 to USD 1,016/ ton in Q4 2014. Regarding other products, average price of polyethylene fell from USD1,591 to USD 1,416/ton. In addition, polypropylene price averaged USD 1,370/ton down from USD 1,533. Meanwhile, average methanol price (China) culminated at USD 349/ton from USD 325/ton in Q3 2014. According to Argaam Business Info., ethylene price currently stands at USD 800 versus USD 670 for propylene. Meanwhile, prices of polyethylene and polypropylene sustained their drop to USD 1,155 and USD1,070 per ton, respectively. Lower prices for final products as well as feedstock are expected to squeeze top line and margins of the company in addition to its competitive advantages in international markets, hence our fair value is trimmed to SAR 55 from SAR 74 per share. FY - Ending December 2011 2012 2013 2014 EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales P/E Dividend Yield P/B Price/sales Revenues growth 6.82 3.27 7.20 0.0% 2.17 2.37 65.9% 7.82 3.27 9.42 0.0% 1.76 2.46 -3.7% 6.77 2.95 8.65 7.4% 1.52 2.44 0.6% 9.23 7.4% - 1 Yansab Petrochemical Industries Sector YANSAB AB - 2290.SE 14 January 2015 Income Statement (SAR mn) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Sales COGS SG&A EBITDA EBITDA Margin Depreciation and amortization EBIT Net interest income Investment Income Others Pre-Tax Income Tax and Zakat Net Income 5,821.5 2,817.1 123.1 2,881.4 %49.5 )834.9( 2,046.5 9,659.3 4,848.4 175.4 4,635.5 %48.0 )1,017.8( 3,617.7 9,299.0 5,171.6 233.6 3,893.7 %41.9 )1,018.4( 2,875.4 9,353.6 5,048.8 231.9 4,073.0 %43.5 )1,080.1( 2,992.9 2,842.8 )376.1( 0.0 42.7 1,713.1 40.3 1,672.8 )413.3( 0.0 62.3 3,266.6 92.3 3,174.3 )360.7( 0.0 31.3 2,546.0 117.6 2,428.4 )259.9( 0.0 29.1 2,762.2 117.6 2,644.7 2,477.8 Balance Sheet (SAR mn) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Cash and marketable securities Accounts Receivables Inventory Others Total ST Assets 789.7 2,079.8 901.1 656.3 4,426.8 599.1 2,582.7 1,170.0 768.8 5,120.6 529.8 2,561.8 1,111.6 1,149.6 5,352.8 2,106.2 2,379.8 1,119.1 1,176.8 6,781.9 - Net Fixed Assets & Projects Under Implementation Intangible Assets Others Total LT Assets Total Assets 18,425.7 274.3 36.7 18,736.6 23,163.5 17,588.0 234.1 32.4 17,854.5 22,975.1 16,497.8 330.1 207.9 17,035.7 22,388.5 15,623.4 304.9 190.6 16,118.8 22,900.8 - Short term debt and CPLTD Accounts Payable Others Total ST Liabilities 1,782.7 2,814.5 1,278.9 1,298.4 - 256.3 222.3 2,261.3 423.4 317.6 3,555.5 361.4 831.1 2,471.4 252.1 623.5 2,174.0 - Total Long Term Debt Other non-current liabilities Equity Total Liabilities and Equity 10,910.7 2,651.0 7,340.5 23,163.5 6,542.5 2,362.4 10,514.8 22,975.1 6,821.0 134.9 12,961.2 22,388.5 5,522.6 160.8 15,043.3 22,900.8 - Cash Flow Statement (SAR mn) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Operating Cash Flow Financing Cash Flow Investing Cash Flow Change in Cash Ending Cash 1,697.0 3,295.6 3,345.4 3,620.7 - )200.7( )3,238.0( )3,072.8( )1,839.8( - )1,312.2( )248.2( )341.9( )204.5( - 184.1 )190.6( )69.3( 1,576.4 - 789.7 599.1 529.8 2,106.1 - * Figures released by the company Presentation of financial statements may differ from the company’s presentation. However, there is no impact on the final results. 2 Yansab Petrochemical Industries Sector YANSAB AB - 2290.SE 14 January 2015 Albilad Capital Rating Methodology Al-Bilad Capital uses its own evaluation structure, and its recommendations are based on quantitative and qualitative data collected by the analysts. Moreover, the evaluation system places covered shares under one of the next recommendation areas based on the closing price of the market, the fair value that we set and the possibility of ascent/descent. Overweight: The Fair Value exceeds the current share price by ≥ 10%. We expect the share price to reach the Fair Value over the next 9-12 months Neutral: The Fair Value is either more or less than the current share price by < 10% We expect the share price to reach the Fair Value over the next 9-12 months Underweight: The Fair Value is less than the current share price by ≥ 10%. We expect the share price to reach the Fair Value over the next 9-12 months To be Revised: No Fair Value had been set for one or more of the following reasons: waiting for more analysis, waiting for detailed financials , waiting for more data to be updated, major change in company`s performance, change in market conditions or any other reason from Albilad Capital Research. Albilad Capital Client Services E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +966-11-203-9888 Toll-free: 800-116-0001 Research & Advisory E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +966-11-203-9892 Website: www.albilad-capital.com/en/research Brokerage E-mail: Tel: [email protected] +966-11-203-9840 Asset Management Investment Banking E-mail: Tel: E-mail: Tel: [email protected] +966-11-203-9870 [email protected] +966-11-203-9830 Disclaimer AlBilad Capital exerted utmost efforts to ensure that the information included in this report is accurate and correct. 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