Weekly Credit Update
Weekly Credit Update 20 January 2015 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report. Analyst Mads Rosendal +46 8 568 80594 [email protected] Contents - Market news - Trade ideas - Company news - Chart pack - List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations 2 What’s on our mind - general credit market news • Risk sentiment was back on last week as the market was gearing up for the upcoming ECB announcement later this week. Despite somewhat volatile equity markets, credit markets remained fairly calm and the European IG index itraxx main was 6bp tighter w/w while the HY index (iTraxx crossover) was about 40bp tighter w/w. • We saw larger primary activity compared to the previous week. The market improved in both volumes and diversity of issuance as both core, periphery and non-European issuers entered the market. • European Court of Justice Advocate-General, Pedro Cruz Villalón, announced his opinion last week on the European Central Bank's OMT programme ahead of a ruling expected later this year by the court. Mr. Villalón found the ECB’s bond-purchase programme to be compatible "in principle" with European law, thereby contradicting the German Constitutional Court’s legal challenge and giving Draghi the green light ahead of this week’s expected QE announcement. • Due to expected portfolio rebalancing effects, we anticipate that the ECB’s announcement later this week will have a positive effect on corporate credit spreads going forward, even if the ECB decides only to include SSAs in the purchase programme to begin with. Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 Close of relative trade (‘Buy’ Stena 2020, ‘Sell’ Stena 2019) The yield differential is no longer ‘very’ attractive between Stena 2020 and Stena 2019. Yield pickup between the bonds has narrowed to some 0.55% p.a. (compared with a start yield differential of 1.4% p.a. when the trade was suggested on 24 October 2014). Following healthy relative performance since initiation in October 2014, we close out and take profit on our earlier trade idea (buy Stena 2020, sell Stena 2019). Fundamentally, we like Stena and currently view the company as a ‘BB’ credit with moderately improving credit metrics short term (<2016) but flat to declining credit metrics longer term (>2016). Following the close of the trade, we keep our absolute ‘Buy’ recommendation on the Stena bonds/CDS (see valuation chart later in this presentation). 1,60 Mid yield difference Stena 2020 versus Stena 2019 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 okt-2014 nov-2014 nov-2014 dec-2014 dec-2014 Source: Bloomberg, Moody’s, Danske Bank Markets jan-2015 Recent trade ideas Trade SASSS '17 Idea We believe the SAS 2017 offers an attractive absolute value – supported by adequate liquidity Opened Start spread Switch from ATCOA '19 to ATCOA '23 VLVY' 17 or VLVY'19 NYNAAB '18 The Atlas Copco 2019s trades tighter than the average ‘A+’ rated EUR corporate. Go out the curve and buy the '23s We see the VLVY cash curve at attractively valued and an (uncertain) downgrade is more than priced in to spreads NYNAAB '18's, which we see as 'B+' indicatively trade way too cheap relative to the industrial 'B+' curve Opened Start spread Opened Start spread Opened Start spread COMHSS '19 Switch from SKFBSS '19 to SKFBSS '18 or '20 SAABAB '19 COMHSS '19 looks cheap compared to other rated and unrated issues in SEK. Trades like a B+, but is officially rated BBSKF’s 2020s and 2018s offer attractive value relative to the rating (‘BBB+’ NO and ‘Baa1’ S) Downgrade seems priced in already Trading wider than the ‘BBB+’ shadow rating would imply Opened Start spread Opened Start spread Opened Start spread 18 dec 2014 807 18 dec 2014 16 27 nov 2014 72 25 nov 2014 640 19 nov 2014 450 18 nov 2014 2 13 nov 2014 115 See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations Source: Danske Bank Markets 5 Company news from the past week Name DNB News DNB presented its oil exposure in a conference call in late December. Total oil-related exposure is 8% of total credit exposure split between Oil & Gas (3.7%), Offshore (2.6%) and Oilfield services (1.5%). Only 2% of DNB’s oil lending portfolios are high risk (63% low risk and 25% medium risk) according to DNB. The riskiest oil-related segments are exploration and oil-field services (total EAD NOK28bn or 1% of total exposure) where the riskier segments are seismic (EAD only NOK1.0bn) as well as the leveraged buy-out portfolio (LBO) with an EAD of NOK7.5bn. While it is obvious that the lower oil price is likely to have a medium-term negative impact on the Norwegian economy, DNB has historically shown very good credit control and surprisingly low loan losses in cyclical sectors where they have structurally large exposures, such as shipping and oil-related sectors. In its oil-related lending portfolio, DNB had peak loan losses only at 5bp p.a. in 1998-9. So far the falling oil price has not had any impact on the loan book and DNB said that the oil-related credit exposures were robust enough to withstand an oil price below USD60 based on made stress tests. As with its shipping exposure, the lending to clients is done based on cash flow and not asset values. Currently, DNB is reporting the loan loss ratio at around 10bp versus approaching but not surpassing 100bp during the financial crisis. DNB still expects to have group impairments below normalised levels in 2015, i.e. below 20bp. According to management, an oil price of USD60 per barrel will not trigger individual write-downs. We don’t know what oil price will trigger individual provisioning but we expect management to increase collective provisioning already in Q4. We think the potential oil impact will be much harsher on smaller Norwegian banks than DNB but we are still cautious on the name. On capitalisation, in Q3 14 DNB reported a CET1 ratio of 12.6% based on transitional floor rules, up from 12.1% at the end of Q2 14. Fully-loaded Basel III CET1 was 14.7%. We will carefully monitor the house price development in the near future as a warning signal for asset quality in Norwegian banks. A potential dive in this segment could be a catalyst for driving loan losses significantly higher for the banks. Also watch out for corporate bankruptcy numbers. So far we have not really seen an adverse development but recent regional housing prices show that, for example, Stavanger (oil centre) has started to lag other areas. Source: Danske Bank Markets Implication Credit neutral 6 Company news from the past week Stena Stena and Scandlines have revealed they have agreed to sell the short duration infrastructure-like ferry route Helsingborg-Helsingør (including the five vessels operating the route) to a European infrastructure fund managed by First State Investments. The route has been operated and owned in a 50/50 partnership between Stena and Scandlines (owned by PE fund 3i). The route transported some 720,000 cars passengers and 4m passengers during 2013. In 2013, the route experienced a decline in all transportation segments ranging from 0.2-1.6%. No sales price nor explicit sales motivations revealed by the parties other than some loose statements from 3i in today’s paper that the route has been profitable and that the purchase price offered to the parties was attractive. In light of the fierce competition on Öresund (the route competes with the bridge to Sweden owned and operated by the Danish and Swedish state), 3i´s intentions to exit the overall investment in Scandlines in the best possible way and Stena´s current focus on restructuring its ferry activities, the full exit on the route seems natural. We regard the sale as a minor (positive) credit event for Stena. Within the ferry business, Stena will continue to focus on its remaining 23 routes and 40 vessels with special focus on developing its longer transport and freight routes in order to improve the overall financial results for this segment. Credit positive Metso Metso announced the sale of its process automation unit (PAS) as previously communicated when the strategy was updated in late 2014. The PAS business was left behind following the divestment of the Pulp, Paper and Power business in 2013. The value of the transaction is EUR340m and Metso's net debt should be significantly reduced following the completion of the transaction which will be sometime in Q2. Proforma we expect to see adj. net debt to decline from 1.7x currently to around 1.1-1.3x. Metso's annual EBITDA will decline by around EUR40m proforma. Overall this is postive at least short term. A leverage lower than 1.5x is not really needed to maintain a 'BBB' rating and as such one could fear that Metso will use the proceeds for M&A or addtional shareholder payouts. Metso's mainshareholder is Cevian with 13.8% of the capital. Credit positive Stora Enso has taken a writedown on assets in its graphic paper production business. Some are related to the recent sell-off of the Uetersen paper mill in germany. As the writedown will not affect cash flow, this is credit neutral and not unexpected given the ongoing weakness in the graphic paper market. Credit neutral Stora Enso Source: Danske Bank Markets 7 Selected new issues Selected new issues Date Issuer 19-01-2015 Goldman Sachs Group Inc 14-01-2015 Kbc Bank Nv 14-01-2015 Toyota Motor Credit Corp 14-01-2015 Volkswagen Fin Serv Nv 14-01-2015 Iberdrola Intl Bv 14-01-2015 Evonik Industries Ag 13-01-2015 Arkema 13-01-2015 Gas Natural Fenosa Finan 12-01-2015 Telecom Italia Spa Source: Danske Bank Markets Coupon 1,375% 0,45% 0,75% EUR003M +21bps 1,125% 1% 1,5% 1,375% 3,25% CCY EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR Volume 1 000 m 1 000 m 1 000 m 60 m 600 m 750 m 700 m 500 m 1 000 m Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM Jul-22 / Baa1e / Ae 100 Jan-22 / Aaae / AAAe 2 Jul-22 / Aa3e / 28 Jan-17 A / A3 / 21 Jan-23 BBB / Baa1 / BBB+e 65 Jan-23 BBB+ / Baa2 / 53 Jan-25 BBB / Baa2 / 87 Jan-25 BBB / Baa2 / BBB+ 75 Jan-23 BB+ / Ba1 / BBB-e 275 8 Chart pack: Euro spreads and returns Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100 Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices HY Total Return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100 Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 9 Chart pack: Relative value iTraxx vs iBoxx EUR CDS Spreads – Nordic Banks Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit) Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch) Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 10 Chart pack: General market development European swap and government yields 3m TED-spread, US & Euro Area Euro swap curve spread Euro/USD basis swaps Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 11 Chart pack: Fund flows Europe, net sales US, net sales Sweden, net sales Norway, net sales Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 12 Chart pack: Macro GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted Purchasing Manager’s Indices Euro area y/y chg in bank lending Euro area lending standards Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 13 Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Company Ahlstrom Oyj Akelius Residential Ab Ambu A/S Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S Arla Foods Amba Atlas Copco Ab Avinor As Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As Bank Norwegian As Beerenberg Holdco Ii As Bw Offshore Cargotec Oyj Carlsberg Breweries A/S Cermaq Asa Citycon Oyj Color Group As Com Hem Holding Ab Danfoss A/S Danske Bank A/S Dfds A/S Dlg Finance As Dna Ltd Dnb Bank Asa Dong Energy A/S Dsv A/S Eg Holding Eika Boligkreditt As Eika Gruppen As Electrolux Ab Elenia Oy Elisa Oyj Entra Eiendom As Rating B+ BBBBBBBBB+ Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable Stable BBBStable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable BB Stable BB- Stable BBB B ABBB A- Moody's Rating Outlook BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable A AA- Stable Stable A2 A1 Stable Stable Baa2 Neg Fitch Rating Outlook Stable BBB+ BBB B+ BB+ BBB- BBBBBBBB- S&P Rating Outlook BBB Stable Baa2 Stable BBBBB A Stable Stable Neg A3 Stable BBB Stable A Stable B+ Stable Stable Stable A+ BBB+ Stable Stable A1 Baa1 BBB Stable Wr BBB Pos Baa2 Neg Stable BBB+ Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable WD Stable Stable Analyst(s) Mads Rosendal Louis Landeman Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting Mads Rosendal Mads Rosendal Ola Heldal T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Øyvind Mossige Øyvind Mossige Mads Rosendal Brian Børsting Knut-Ivar Bakken Louis Landeman Niklas Ripa Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen Niklas Ripa Mads Rosendal Ola Heldal T. Hovard / L. Holm Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting Jakob Magnussen T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Recomm. BUY SELL HOLD SELL HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY 14 Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5 Danske Bank Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Farstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BBFingrid Oyj Finnair Oyj BB Stable Fortum Oyj Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab Fred Olsen Energy Asa BB+ Neg G4S Plc Getinge Ab BB+ Neg Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd B Heimstaden Ab BB Stable BBHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable BBB Hkscan Oyj BB Stable Hoist Kredit Ab BBStable B+ Husqvarna Ab BBBPos Ikano Bank Ab BBB Stable Investor Ab Iss A/S J Lauritzen A/S B Stable BJernhusen Ab AStable Jyske Bank A/S Kesko Oyj BBB Stable Klaveness Ship Holding As BBStable B+ Loomis Ab BBBStable Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB+ Stable Meda Ab BBStable Metsa Board Oyj Metso Oyj Ncc Ab BBBStable Neste Oil Oyj BBBStable Nokia Oyj Nokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Nordea Bank Ab S&P Rating Outlook Moody's Rating Outlook Fitch Rating Outlook A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable ABBB+ Neg Stable A2 Neg A- Neg BBB- Stable AABBB- Stable Stable A1 Stable A- Stable Baa1 Neg B+ BBB Pos Stable B1 Baa2 Pos Stable BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB Stable AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable Analyst(s) Øyvind Mossige Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting Louis Landeman Sondre Stormyr Louis Landeman Louis Landeman Brian Børsting Gabriel Bergin Louis Landeman T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting Brian Børsting Bjørn Kristian Røed Gabriel Bergin Thomas M. Hovard Mads Rosendal Bjørn Kristian Røed Brian Børsting Louis Landeman Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal Mads Rosendal Louis Landeman Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen T. Hovard / L. Holm Recomm. BUY SELL BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL 15 Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5 Company Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa Norwegian Property Asa Nykredit Bank A/S Nynas Group Odfjell Se Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa Olympic Shipping As Orkla Asa Outokumpu Oyj Pohjola Bank Oyj Posten Norge As Postnord Ab Prosafe Se Ramirent Oyj Saab Ab Sampo Oyj Sandnes Sparebank Sandvik Ab Sas Ab Sbab Bank Ab Scania Ab Schibsted Asa Seadrill Ltd Securitas Ab Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab Skanska Ab Skf Ab Sognekraft As Solstad Offshore Asa Spar Nord Bank A/S Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As Sparebank 1 Nord Norge Rating BBBBB- Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable B+ Stable B+ B+ BBB+ B+ BBB+ B Stable Stable Stable Stable Pos Pos ABBB+ BB BB+ BBB+ Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable BBB+ Stable BBB BB+ Stable Stable BBB+ Stable BBB BBBBB+ A- Stable Stable Stable Stable S&P Rating Outlook Moody's Rating Outlook Fitch Rating Outlook A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable Wr Baa2 Stable B+ B B BBB BA A- Neg Stable Neg Stable Wr A2 Stable Neg BBB A+ Stable Neg Wr A1 Neg BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable A2 Neg BB A+ Pos BBB B+ A Stable Analyst(s) Brian Børsting Ola Heldal T. Hovard / L. Holm Jakob Magnussen Bjørn Kristian Røed Ola Heldal Øyvind Mossige Ola Heldal Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm Ola Heldal Gabriel Bergin Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting Louis Landeman T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Ola Heldal Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal Jakob Magnussen Øyvind Mossige T. Hovard / L. Holm Lars Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Recomm. HOLD SELL HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY SELL HOLD 16 Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5 Company Sparebank 1 Smn Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa Sponda Oyj St1 Nordic Oy Statkraft Sf Statnett Sf Statoil Asa Steen & Strom As Stena Ab Stockmann Oyj Abp Stolt-Nielsen Ltd Stora Enso Oyj Storebrand Bank Asa Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys Swedavia Ab Swedbank Ab Swedish Match Ab Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca Svenska Handelsbanken Ab Sydbank A/S Tallink Group As Tdc A/S Teekay Offshore Partners Lp Tele2 Ab Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson Telenor Asa Teliasonera Ab Teollisuuden Voima Oyj Thon Holding As Tine Sa Upm-Kymmene Oyj Rating BBBBB Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable B+ BB+ Stable Stable BBB+ AA- Stable Stable Stable Fitch Rating Outlook AStable AStable AA+ AA- Stable Stable Stable Aaa Wr Aa2 Stable Stable Stable BB Stable B2 Stable BB BBB+ Stable Neg Ba2 Baa2 Stable Neg WD A+ BBB Neg Stable A1 Baa2 Neg Stable A+ Pos AAA- Stable Neg Baa1 Aa3 Baa1 Stable Neg Neg AA- Stable BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Stable BBB+ A ABBB Stable Stable Stable Neg Baa1 A3 A3 Wr Stable Stable Neg BBB+ Stable ABBB Stable Stable BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD BB Stable BB Stable BB- BBBBB Stable Stable B+ BBB+ BBB+ Moody's Rating Outlook A2 Neg A2 Neg Stable Stable BBB+ BBB S&P Rating Outlook Stable Stable Analyst(s) Recomm. T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Louis Landeman Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal Niklas Ripa Mads Rosendal Bjørn Kristian Røed Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Gabriel Bergin T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Niklas Ripa Ola Heldal Bjørn Kristian Røed Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Mads Rosendal HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD SELL BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL BUY HOLD 17 Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5 Company Vasakronan Ab Vattenfall Ab Vestas Wind Systems A/S Victoria Park Ab Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa Volvo Ab Rating ABBBBBBBB- Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable Pos Stable Stable S&P Rating Outlook Moody's Rating Outlook Fitch Rating Outlook A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable B+ Analyst(s) Louis Landeman Jakob Magnussen Niklas Ripa Louis Landeman Bjørn Kristian Røed Mads Rosendal Recomm. HOLD BUY BUY Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets 18 Fixed Income Credit Research team Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst Head of Credit Research +45 45 12 85 05 [email protected] Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst Industrials +45 45 12 85 19 [email protected] Ola Heldal, Analyst TMT +47 85 40 84 33 [email protected] Louis Landeman, Analyst TMT, Industrials +46 8 568 80524 [email protected] Lars Holm, Senior Analyst Financials +45 45 12 80 41 [email protected] Sondre Dale Stormyr, Analyst Offshore Rigs +47 85 40 70 70 [email protected] Mads Rosendal, Analyst Industrials, Pulp & Paper +46 8 568 80594 [email protected] Gabriel Bergin, Analyst Strategy, Industrials +46 8 568 80602 [email protected] Henrik René Andresen, Analyst Credit Portfolios +45 45 13 33 27 [email protected] Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst Utilities, Energy +45 45 12 85 03 [email protected] Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst High Yield, Industrials +45 45 12 80 47 [email protected] Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst Oil Services +47 85 40 54 91 [email protected] Knut-Ivar Bakken, Analyst Fish Farming +47 85 40 70 74 [email protected] Bjørn Kristian Røed, Analyst Shipping +47 85 40 70 72 [email protected] 19 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). 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