Weekly Credit Update 24 February 2015 Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI Analyst Niklas Ripa +45 45 12 80 47 [email protected] Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 20 of this report Contents - Market news - Trade ideas - Company news - Chart pack - List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations 2 What’s on our mind - General credit market news • Last week added more than EUR11bn of supply across senior and subordinated notes in the EUR primary market. We saw multiple times oversubscribed order books, issues with very low coupons and very large hybrid tranches. • Increasing risk appetite and the bridge-financing agreement reached for Greece led to significant spread tightening across all indices (especially the high beta part of the market). iTraxx Main and Crossover tightened 6bp and 30bp respectively during last week. • The very hot current temperature of the credit markets can be illustrated by the hybrid deals issued by Total and TDC respectively; • Total issued a subordinated perpetual non-call 6yr instrument (Aa3) with a coupon of 2.25% and a subordinated perpetual non-call 10yr instrument (Aa3) with a coupon of 2.625%. Both issues were oversubscribed by 4x in aggregate. • TDC issued a subordinated non-call 6yr instrument (Ba2e) with final legal maturity in 3015 and priced with a coupon of 3.5%. This issue was oversubscribed by 5.5x. In addition TDC issued a 12-year senior with a coupon of 1.75% and an oversubscription of 3.5x. The spread on the sub issue tightened moderately in the secondary market. • Vestas (DBM shadow rating of BBB-) announced its plan to go on a pan-European roadshow shortly. Depending on investor feedback a euro-denominated bond issue may follow. Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 Buy SSAB EUR 2019s against SSAB SEK 2019s (published 16 Feb) EUR bonds - High Yield Indicative ASW offer (bps) • From a credit perspective, SSAB showed steady progress in its Q4 results despite a slight underperformance versus consensus earnings. Cash flow was not enough to reduce the overall net debt but credit metrics still managed to improve due to a larger LTM adjusted EBITDA. • Credit metrics are, in our view, a little on the weak side for the group’s ‘BB-’ rating but S&P has built in an improvement in its basecase scenario and, as such, the rating should not be in danger given the strong momentum SSAB is currently seeing. • We expect 2015 to be positive from a credit point of view with improved earnings and further improvements in credit metrics. • The SEK bond trades at bid 97.26 (ASW EUR6m 322bp) and the EUR bond at ask 100.75 (ASW EUR6m 341bp). • The trade provides a pick-up of 19bp with 1.5 months extension, which in our view seems attractive. 400 Industrials: BB+ Industrials: BB 350 SSABAS EUR '19 (BB-/NR) Industrials: BBSSABAS SEK '19 (BB-/NR) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 4 Recent trade ideas Type Trade Currency trade Switch from SSAB SEK '19 to SSAB EUR '19 Outright CITCON '3.75 Outright EGASDK '20 Sector spread Curve spread Outright Curve spread Outright Idea SSAB's EUR bonds look cheap compared to the SEK bonds and provide a pick-up of some 19bp with an extension of 1.5 months. Opened 17-02-2015 Start spread 19 We believe that CITCON'3.75 trades at an attractive Opened level relative to the 'BBB' curve. Start spread 10-02-2015 EGASDK'20, which we see as 'B' indicatively, trades way too cheap relative to the industrial 'B' curve. Opened 104 02-02-2015 Start spread 683 We have an ‘overweight’ recommendation on SEB and Opened an ‘underweight’ recommendation on Nordea and do Switch from NDA AT1 to SEB AT1 not believe a 14bp pick-up for a four-year maturity Start spread extension is worthwhile. The Securitas 2021 bond trades wider than the BBB- Opened curve, while the Securitas 2017 bond trades at the Switch from SECUSS '17 to SECUSS BBB+ curve. We recommend buying the Securitas '21 Start spread 2021 versus the Securitas 2017. Pick up 57bp (zspread) for four-year maturity extension. 26-01-2015 SASSS '17 We believe the SAS 2017 offers an attractive absolute value – supported by adequate liquidity. Opened -8 23-01-2015 81 18-12-2014 Start spread 807 The Atlas Copco 2019 trades tighter than the Opened Switch from ATCOA'19 to ATCOA'23 average ‘A+’ rated EUR corporate. Go out on the curve Start spread and buy the '23. We see the VLVY cash curve as attractively valued Opened VLVY‘17 or VLVY'19 and an (uncertain) downgrade is more than priced into Start spread spreads. 18-12-2014 16 27-11-2014 72 See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations Source: Danske Bank Markets 5 Company news from the past week Name Carlsberg Sydbank News Carlsberg (Sell) reported a slightly weaker than expected Q4 14 with operating profit before special items of DKK1,786m vs. DKK2,304m in Q4 13 and consensus of DKK1,893m. The miss is due to Russia which saw operating profit in Q4 of DKK545m vs. DKK1,139m in Q4 13 (-52% y/y). For FY 2014 reported net debt to EBITDA was 2.74x - up from 2.55x in 2013. For 2015 Carlsberg does not give specific overall guidance but states that it expects operating profit to grow organically mid-to high single digit (this does not include exchange rate changes). However Carlsberg gives some strong signals from a credit perspective - and it seems the focus is very much on preserving the balance sheet. First of all Carlsberg states that the M&A strategy will have a low priority for a period of time. Furthermore capex is guided at just DKK4bn in 2015 (2014: DKK6.7bn) AND net debt to EBITDA is expected to be less than 2.5x end-2015 (2.74x end-2014). This priority is showing a strong commitment to the company’s stated investment grade ambition. A net debt to EBITDA of less than 2.5x is in our view commensurate with a BBB rating (Moody’s: BBB/Negative outlook; Fitch: BBB/Stable). We believe the very clear credit focus from Carlsberg should be seen as a positive from a bond perspective. However the bond valuation already reflects the BBB rating and we do not see upside to cash bond prices. Sydbank Q4 14: net profit 18% below consensus due to 7% lower-than-expected income mainly caused by trading income. This is the same trend we have seen in other banks but consensus should have adjusted for that, so it is a bit negative. Loan losses were the main positive and what we really focus on: DKK39m or 21% below consensus and as much as 83% or DKK740m below Q4 last year! Reported CET1 was 13.9% and the total capital ratio 16%. New capital targets of 13.5% in CET1 and 17% in total capital ratio. Sydbank says that it wants to issue c.DKK750m in Tier-2 debt during H1 2015. The group will move closer to meeting the capital targets in the coming years. An adjustment of the group’s capital structure to the capital targets will require subordinated capital to be issued after which share buybacks are believed to be an option. ‘In 1H 2015 the Board of Directors will commence work on the first phase of the capital adjustment in which the possibility of issuing Tier 2 capital of approx DKK 750m will be reviewed.’ All in all a good result as the bank delivers on the loan losses, which have been the biggest uncertainty in Sydbank. We stick to our Overweight recommendation. Source: Danske Bank Markets Implication Credit positive Credit positive 6 Company news from the past week Name News Swedish Match (Marketweight) showed continued improvement in operating profit and continued to mitigate the fierce price competition with cost restructuring in Q4 14. Operating profit from product areas was SEK900m in Q4 14 - an 8% increase y/y but below consensus of SEK970m. Net profit improved by 4% to SEK700m in Q4 14. The operating margin from product areas was 25.5% in Q4 14 vs. 26.3% in Q4 13 - we believe fears of any Swedish Match significant margin pressure from the low cost competitors in e.g. Sweden should ease following the last quarterly results where Swedish Match has proven its ability to adjust to the new market environment. Net debt to EBITDA declined to 2.0x end-2014 from 2.1x end-2013. We believe that Swedish Match will continue to keep a stable leverage ratio - and continue to adjust its share buy back programme in this respect. We continue to see Swedish Match as a BBB company and see bond valuation as fair - hence we keep our Marketweight recommendation. Source: Danske Bank Markets Implication Credit neutral 7 Selected new issues Selected new issues Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume 16-02-2015 Teliasonera Ab 1.625% EUR 500 m 20-02-2015 Tdc A/S 1.75% EUR 19-02-2015 Tdc A/S 3.5% EUR 19-02-2015 Total Sa 2.625% 19-02-2015 Total Sa 2.25% Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM Perp A- / A3 / A-e 63 800 m Perp / Baa3e / BBBe 100 750 m Feb-15 / Ba2e / BB+e EUR 2 500 m Perp / Aa3 / EUR 2 500 m Perp / Aa3 / 215 Source: Danske Bank Markets 8 Chart pack: euro spreads and returns Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100 Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices HY Total Return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100 Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 9 Chart pack: relative value iTraxx vs iBoxx EUR CDS Spreads – Nordic Banks Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit) Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch) Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 10 Chart pack: general market development European swap and government yields 3M TED-spread, US and euro area Euro swap curve spread EUR/USD basis swaps Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 11 Chart pack: fund flows Europe, net sales US, net sales Sweden, net sales Norway, net sales Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 12 Chart pack: macro GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted Purchasing Manager Indices Euro area y/y change in bank lending Euro area lending standards Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 13 Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5 Company Ahlstrom Oyj Akelius Residential Property Ab Ambu A/S Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S Arla Foods Amba Atlas Copco Ab Avinor As Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As Bank Norwegian As Beerenberg Holdco Ii As Billerudkorsnas Ab Bw Offshore Cargotec Oyj Carlsberg Breweries A/S Cermaq Asa Citycon Oyj Color Group As Com Hem Holding Ab Danfoss A/S Danske Bank A/S Dfds A/S Dlg Finance As Dna Ltd Dnb Bank Asa Dong Energy A/S Dsv A/S Eg Holding Eika Boligkreditt As Eika Gruppen As Electrolux Ab Elenia Oy Elisa Oyj Rating B+ BBBBBBBBB+ Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable Stable BBBStable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable BB Stable BB- Stable BBB B ABBB Moody's Rating Outlook BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable A AA- Stable Stable A2 A1 Stable Stable Baa2 Neg Fitch Rating Outlook Stable BBB+ BBB B BBBBB+ BBB- BBBBBBBB- S&P Rating Outlook BBB Stable Baa2 Stable BBBBB A Stable Stable Neg A3 Stable BBB Stable A Stable B+ Stable Stable Stable A+ BBB+ Stable Stable A1 Baa1 BBB Stable Wr BBB Pos Baa2 Neg Stable BBB+ Stable Stable Stable Stable WD Stable Stable Analyst(s) Recomm. Mads Rosendal Louis Landeman Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHT Mads Rosendal Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHT Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHT T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Øyvind Mossige Mads Rosendal Øyvind Mossige Mads Rosendal Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT Knut-Ivar Bakken Emil Hjalmarsson Niklas Ripa Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen Niklas Ripa Mads Rosendal Ola Heldal T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT Brian Børsting Jakob Magnussen T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHT Ola Heldal OVERWEIGHT 14 Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5 Entra Eiendom As AStable Farstad Shipping Asa BB Neg Fingrid Oyj Finnair Oyj BB Stable Fortum Oyj Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab Fred Olsen Energy Asa BB Stable G4S Plc Getinge Ab BB+ Neg Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd B Heimstaden Ab BB Stable Hemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable Hkscan Oyj BB Stable Hoist Kredit Ab BBStable Husqvarna Ab BBBPos Ikano Bank Ab BBB Stable Investor Ab Iss A/S J Lauritzen A/S B Stable Jernhusen Ab AStable Jyske Bank A/S Kesko Oyj BBB Stable Klaveness Ship Holding As BBStable Loomis Ab BBBStable Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB+ Stable Meda Ab BBStable Metsa Board Oyj Metso Oyj Ncc Ab BBBStable Neste Oil Oyj BBBStable Nokia Oyj Nokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable BBA+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable ABBB+ Neg Stable A2 Neg A- Neg BBB- Stable AABBB- Stable Stable A1 Stable A- Stable Baa1 Neg BB BBB Stable Stable B1 Baa2 Pos Stable BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB- BBBBB B+ B- B+ BB Stable Ola Heldal Øyvind Mossige Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting Louis Landeman Sondre Stormyr Louis Landeman Emil Hjalmarsson Brian Børsting Gabriel Bergin Emil Hjalmarsson T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting Brian Børsting Bjørn Kristian Røed Gabriel Bergin T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Bjørn Kristian Røed Brian Børsting Louis Landeman Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal Mads Rosendal Emil Hjalmarsson Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT 15 Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5 Company North Atlantic Drilling Ltd Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa Norwegian Property Asa Nykredit Bank A/S Nynas Group Odfjell Se Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa Olympic Shipping As Orkla Asa Outokumpu Oyj Pohjola Bank Oyj Posten Norge As Postnord Ab Prosafe Se Ramirent Oyj Sampo Oyj Sandnes Sparebank Sandvik Ab Sas Ab Sbab Bank Ab Scania Ab Schibsted Asa Seadrill Ltd Securitas Ab Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab Skanska Ab Skf Ab Sognekraft As Solstad Offshore Asa Spar Nord Bank A/S Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As Sparebank 1 Nord Norge Rating BBBBBBB- Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Neg B+ Stable B+ Stable B+ B+ BBB+ B+ BBB+ B Stable Stable Stable Stable Pos Pos ABBB+ BB BB+ Stable Stable Stable Stable BBB+ Stable BBB BB Stable Neg BBB+ Stable BBB BBBBB+ A- Stable Stable Stable Stable S&P Rating Outlook Moody's Rating Outlook Fitch Rating Outlook A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable Baa2 Stable B+ B B BBB BA A- Neg Stable Neg Stable Wr A2 Stable Neg BBB A+ Stable Neg Wr A1 Neg BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable Aaa A2 Neg BBA+ Pos BBB B+ A Stable Analyst(s) Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting Ola Heldal T. Hovard / L. Holm Jakob Magnussen Bjørn Kristian Røed Ola Heldal Øyvind Mossige Ola Heldal Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm Ola Heldal Gabriel Bergin Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Ola Heldal Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Emil Hjalmarsson Mads Rosendal Jakob Magnussen Øyvind Mossige T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Recomm. MARKET WEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT OVERWEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT 16 Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5 Company Sparebank 1 Smn Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa Sponda Oyj St1 Nordic Oy Statkraft Sf Statnett Sf Statoil Asa Steen & Strom As Stena Ab Stockmann Oyj Abp Stolt-Nielsen Ltd Stora Enso Oyj Storebrand Bank Asa Sunnfjord Energi As Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca Svenska Handelsbanken Ab Swedavia Ab Swedbank Ab Swedish Match Ab Sydbank A/S Saab Ab Tallink Group As Tdc A/S Teekay Offshore Partners Lp Tele2 Ab Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson Telenor Asa Teliasonera Ab Teollisuuden Voima Oyj Thon Holding As Rating BBBBB Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable B+ BB+ Stable Stable BBB+ BBBABBB Stable Stable Stable Stable Fitch Rating Outlook AStable AStable AA+ AA- Stable Stable Stable Aaa Wr Aa2 Stable Stable Stable BB Stable B2 Stable BB BBB+ Stable Neg Ba2 Baa2 Stable Neg AAA- Stable Neg Baa1 Aa3 Stable Neg A+ BBB Neg Stable A1 Baa2 Baa1 Wr BBB Neg BBB+ A ABBB Stable Stable Stable Neg BB WD BBB- AA- Stable Neg Stable Neg A+ Pos Baa3 Stable BBB Neg Baa1 A3 A3 Wr Stable Stable Neg BBB+ Stable ABBB Stable Stable Stable BBB+ BB Stable Stable BBBBB Stable Stable BBB+ Moody's Rating Outlook A2 Neg A2 Neg Stable Stable BBB+ A- S&P Rating Outlook Stable BBB+ Analyst(s) Recomm. T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Emil Hjalmarsson Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal Niklas Ripa Mads Rosendal Bjørn Kristian Røed Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm Jakob Magnussen T. Hovard / L. Holm Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm Gabriel Bergin T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Emil Hjalmarsson Niklas Ripa Ola Heldal Bjørn Kristian Røed Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal UNDERWEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKETWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT MARKET WEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT 17 Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5 Company Tine Sa Upm-Kymmene Oyj Vasakronan Ab Vattenfall Ab Vestas Wind Systems A/S Victoria Park Ab Volvo Ab Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa Yit Oyj Rating BBB+ Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable A- Stable BBBBB- Pos Stable BBBB Stable Neg S&P Rating Outlook Moody's Rating Outlook Fitch Rating Outlook BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable B+ Analyst(s) Recomm. Ola Heldal Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Emil Hjalmarsson Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT Niklas Ripa OVERWEIGHT Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Bjørn Kristian Røed Emil Hjalmarsson Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets 18 Fixed Income Credit Research team Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst Head of Credit Research +45 45 12 85 05 [email protected] Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst Industrials +45 45 12 85 19 [email protected] Ola Heldal, Analyst TMT +47 85 40 84 33 [email protected] Louis Landeman, Analyst TMT, Industrials +46 8 568 80524 [email protected] Lars Holm, Senior Analyst Financials +45 45 12 80 41 [email protected] Sondre Dale Stormyr, Analyst Offshore Rigs +47 85 40 70 70 [email protected] Mads Rosendal, Analyst Industrials, Pulp & Paper +46 8 568 80594 [email protected] Gabriel Bergin, Analyst Strategy, Industrials +46 8 568 80602 [email protected] Henrik René Andresen, Analyst Credit Portfolios +45 45 13 33 27 [email protected] Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst Utilities, Energy +45 45 12 85 03 [email protected] Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst High Yield, Industrials +45 45 12 80 47 [email protected] Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst Oil Services +47 85 40 54 91 [email protected] Knut-Ivar Bakken, Analyst Fish Farming +47 85 40 70 74 [email protected] Bjørn Kristian Røed, Analyst Shipping +47 85 40 70 72 [email protected] Emil Hjalmarsson, Analyst Real Estate, Construction +46 8 568 80634 [email protected] 19 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). 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