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Investment Research 24 October 2014 Weekly Credit Update Headlines Calm has returned to the market Contents Market commentary 1 ... thanks to the ECB and its potential corporate bond buying Selected charts 2 Full transparency in the Swedish credit market Recently published research 4 Official and shadow ratings 6 New edition of Scandi High-Yield Handbook Market commentary After the significant increase in volatility last week, this week has been a lot calmer. The largest movement occurred on Tuesday when unconfirmed media reports of a possible ECB corporate bond buying programme emerged (more on page 2). The Nordic high yield market, which lost a significant amount of depth in the more volatile days, saw some increased transaction activity as buyers came back to take advantage of depressed price levels. As market sentiment improved, issuers also came back to the market. Towards the end of this week, French chemicals company Arkema issued a PNC6 hybrid of EUR700m at a yield of 4.95%. In the Nordics, Swedish cable company ComHem (issuing entity Norcell Sweden Holding 3 AB) stole headlines with the senior secured 5NC2 issue of SEK2.5bn at ms+450bp. iTraxx Europe (investment grade) Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Moving to the domestic Swedish credit market, the Swedish FSA on Tuesday announced new transaction reporting rules for credit bonds, which previously had been exempt from transaction reporting for liquidity reasons. Starting on 2 February, dealers trading bonds listed on a Swedish exchange will have to report all trades at the latest the following day at 9 am. Aggregated data per bond (lowest, mean and highest price and total transaction volume) will be published. A 10-day reporting delay can be granted if a trade’s volume exceeds SEK50m. This type of transaction reporting is very similar to what is already in place in the Norwegian market. This week we published the October edition of our semi-annual guide to Nordic highyield issuers – the Scandi High-Yield Handbook, 22 October. This time around, the handbook includes profiles on 39 issuers from all four Nordic countries. Since the last volume, DFDS has obtained an investment grade shadow rating and is therefore no longer included as a high-yield issuer. Coverage on BWG Homes has been suspended in this volume, following the acquisition by OBOS in June (a stronger unrated credit). We have assigned a negative outlook for Farstad Shipping’s ‘BB’ corporate credit outlook (any rating action limited to a one-notch downgrade) and downgraded our rating on Stockmann from ‘BB-’ to ‘B+’. In addition, we have changed the outlook on our shadow rating on Fred. Olsen Energy to negative. New names in this volume include Ahlstrom, Beerenberg, Cermaq, Heimstaden, Hoist Finance, Golden Close, Norwegian Air Shuttle, Nynas and St1. Finally – don’t forget to book some reading time Sunday afternoon for ECB’s inaugural evaluation and EBA’s stress test of European banks. A nice guide courtesy of ECB here. Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 11 of this report iTraxx Crossover (high yield) Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Analyst Gabriel Bergin +46 8 568 806 02 [email protected] www.danskeresearch.com Weekly Credit Update ECB potentially buying corporate bonds After the ECB announced and implemented a new covered bond purchase programme and started work on ABS purchases, expectations are now rising that ECB will provide even more buying interest in European credit markets. Thus, the (subsequently denied) unconfirmed media reports that corporate bond purchases loom in the not-too-distant future sent spreads tighter this week. In particular, investment grade (IG) credits are benefitting, as it is highly unlikely that the ECB would start buying corporate bonds outright with a rating lower than BBB-. Indeed, yesterday, iTraxx Main outperformed iTraxx Crossover significantly. So, why would the ECB do this? It is hardly rated IG corporates that have trouble financing their investment plans. Rather, IG (and to some extent HY) issuers are issuing bonds for M&A and shareholder remuneration purposes, so they should be quite able to find creditors willing to finance actual capex. A hint can be found in an ECB working paper from a while ago (hat tip: FT Alphaville/Nordea). In short, reduce Volkswagen’s funding cost on the margin and it can finance its suppliers to a marginally higher extent. The reasoning is befitting the ECB, being constantly worried about the transmission mechanism. If this happens though, how much is there to buy? A simple search for all outstanding rated IG non-financial bonds yields a total outstanding amount of approximately EUR930bn. Unfortunately, we see little effect on Nordic bonds from this, as the ECB would most likely want to focus on buying euro-area corporate, leaving us with EUR620bn. Assuming a purchase programme should only buy parts of the outstanding amounts (let’s say 40%), we end up with a potential purchase amount just shy of EUR300bn – still a fair amount (compare with some current EUR100m in SME ABS). We do think this is quite a long way from the ECB’s current plans, though. First the new programmes need to be implemented and evaluated and there are other assets to buy before approaching the corporate market. However, do listen in on the next ECB press conference (6 November) – it would not be the first surprise announcement from Draghi. 2| 24 October 2014 www.danskeresearch.com Weekly Credit Update Selected charts iTraxx (Europe) vs CDX (US) Investment grade corporate yields Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Nordic corporates vs iTraxx Nordic banks 5Y CDS spreads Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Corporate BBB bond yield vs EuroSTOXX dividend yield 3M Libor OIS spreads Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3| 24 October 2014 www.danskeresearch.com Weekly Credit Update Financials spread vs non-financials (Industrials), A-rated Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Europe fund flows Sweden fund flows Norway fund flows Source: Macrobond Source: Macrobond Source: Macrobond 4| 24 October 2014 www.danskeresearch.com Weekly Credit Update Recently published research Metso Q3 14 - HOLD Metso delivered Q3 14 financial results that were somewhat below market expectations. The results were held back by weaker sales in the Minerals division that were only partially offset by the Services and Flow Control divisions, which both had another quarter of strong growth. Debt metrics were flat despite positive FCF due to a slight fall in LTM EBITDA but are fully commensurate with the current ratings. We continue to like the story but we think the Buy case has played out, as Metso has closed the spread gap to other 'BBB'-rated Nordic industrials in the heavy machinery sector. We downgrade our recommendation from Buy to Hold. Saab Q3 14 Saab released decent figures for the third quarter. Sales increased 9% y/y and operating income was slightly down due to non-recurring items. Costs related to the campaign in Switzerland negatively affected the quarter yet this was somewhat offset by the effects seen from the efficiency programme. Operating cash flow was negative due to investments in R&D in line with Q3 being a seasonally weak quarter. The deal with Brazil regarding Gripen NG is progressing according to plan and expected to be signed in the near future. Saab reiterated the outlook for FY 2014: sales in line with the 2013 level and operating margin slightly better than 2013. We maintain our view of Saab as a 'BBB+' credit with stable outlook. Jernhusen Q3 14 Jernhusen presented a good quarterly report for Q3. Rental and operating income increased both sequentially and year-on-year with further cost reductions, not least thanks to higher energy efficiency. The balance sheet remains quite strong and solidity improved somewhat despite a fairly high current capex rate. This report supports our view of Jernhusen as an 'A-' credit with stable outlook. Stena switch idea - BUY Stena 7.875% 2020 is attractive on a relative value basis. Fundamentally, we like Stena and view the company as a BB credit with moderately improving credit metrics. Therefore, we recommend increasing the duration on the name. Yield pick-up on the Stena 2020 is some 1.4% pa versus the Stena 2019. DNB Q3 14 - HOLD DNB reported a very strong Q3 report that beat consensus on all lines and in particular the low loan losses stood out. CET1 increased to 12.6% and the adjusted cost/income ratio was as low as 44%, which speak of a bank with good control of its operation. We like the bank but continue to believe the strong performance is already reflected in the valuation. Hence, we maintain our Hold recommendation. SEB Q3 14 - BUY SEB's Q3 results were much in line with expectations despite somewhat higher loan losses due to a single client in Denmark. We still like the bank and maintain our BUY rating. 5| 24 October 2014 www.danskeresearch.com Weekly Credit Update Fortum Q3 14 - SELL Fortum delivered a good Q3 14 report from a credit perspective. Revenues fell 8% y/y impacted by weak power prices and heating demand. This was partly offset by stronger hydro production and higher revenues from Russia. Group clean EBITDA fell 8% y/y mainly due to lower heat earnings and distribution income. The latter was a result of the divestments of the Finnish and Norwegian grids. Excluding this effect, Group clean earnings rose y/y. Fortum's net debt fell 4% q/q due to lower capex leaving metrics stronger q/q. Overall a credit neutral to slightly positive result from Fortum and we maintain our SELL recommendation due to continued rating pressure and high uncertainty about Russia. Husqvarna Q3 14 - Outlook revised to positive, BBB- affirmed Husqvarna continued to show a stable performance in Q3, with some sales growth and improved margins. Leverage was further reduced during the quarter, partly helped by positive working capital. Encouraged by Husqvarna's overall strong performance in 2014, its delivery on its margin improvement programme, and its commitment to a strong balance sheet, we now revise our credit outlook on the company from stable to positive. We maintain our credit view of Husqvarna as a 'BBB-' company. Stora Enso Q3 14 - HOLD Stora Enso's Q3 14 results were slightly below market expectations. Sales were lower than expected, declining 2% y/y, but Stora Enso still managed to increase earnings significantly y/y due mainly to the group's cost-cutting programme and strong demand in packaging and Biomaterials. Solid cash flow was offset by higher capex from Stora's growth projects and credit metrics were roughly flat sequentially. In our view, Stora Enso's rating should be safe in the near term and we maintain our HOLD recommendation on the name, as we see decent carry in current spreads. Investor AB Q3 14 - BUY Investor reported a sequential increase in NAV of 6% to SEK246.8bn mainly driven by a rise in the value of listed core investments. Leverage decreased marginally quarter on quarter to 8.8% and remains within the targeted range of 5-10%. Adjusting for the recent acquisition of 8% of the share capital in Wärtsilä and stock market turmoil, we estimate the current leverage to be around 9.2%. We continue to consider the current valuation attractive as the bonds are trading at a wide level relative to Investor's senior unsecured ratings and Investor continues to build on its strong track record. We maintain our BUY recommendation. Nordea Q3 14 - SELL Nordea reported good Q3 results with a further improvement in the asset quality but we are concerned about the situation in Finland, which could result in increasing loan losses. Nothing that should rock the boat but enough to justify a repeat of our SELL recommendation given the tight spreads on Nordea's senior bonds. Swedbank Q3 14 - BUY Swedbank reported another solid result, with ROE of 16.6%, CET1 full Basel III of 20.7% and loan loss ratio of 7bp. We maintain our BUY recommendation. 6| 24 October 2014 www.danskeresearch.com Weekly Credit Update Atlas Copco Q3 14 - SELL Atlas Copco presented a good set of Q3 14 results above market expectations in terms of operating profit and roughly in line on sales. Boosted by the acquisition of Edwards, revenues rose 15% y/y although growth was partially offset by low demand from the mining sector. The operating margin was negatively affected by lower volumes and dilution from M&A but aided somewhat by lower costs, higher prices and positive FX effects. Cash flow from operations was a solid SEK4bn but net debt fell by less than SEK1bn, mainly due to the acquisition of Henrob. Overall, tight valuation prompts us to maintain our SELL recommendation on the name. Electrolux Q3 14 - HOLD Electrolux's Q3 14 operating income before restructuring charges increased 29% y/y to SEK1.4bn due to solid margin improvement in Europe following a cost restructuring programme and despite only 1.6% group organic growth year on year. Adjusted net debt to EBITDA declined from 2.3x in Q3 13 to 2.0x in Q3 14. Following the acquisition of GE Appliances, we expect S&P to downgrade Electrolux from 'BBB+' to 'BBB'. We maintain our HOLD recommendation on Electrolux. TVO Q3 14 - BUY TVO's Q3 14 report contained no material news from a credit perspective. Underlying performance remains solid and YTD nuclear capacity factors continue to be on the good side of 92%. Power output increased in Q3 due to higher production on TVOs thermal unit to cover temporary power deficits in Finland due to a dry Q3. TVO did not disclose any news related to the Areva/Siemens arbitration or investment decisions regarding OL4. We continue to see TVO being supported by its shareholders which includes contractual support for its debt commitments in the long term. A downgrade from S&P is a risk following the additional delay of OL3 and the weak power price situation in Finland. However, we still see value in shorter TVO bonds trading wider than average 'BBB-' rated EU utilities. We maintain our BUY recommendation preferring the 2019s. 7| 24 October 2014 www.danskeresearch.com Weekly Credit Update Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank markets shadow ratings Danske Bank Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Ahlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Akelius Residential Ab BB+ Pos BB Ambu A/S BBBStable Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S Arla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Atlas Copco Ab Avinor As Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable Bank Norwegian As BBB Stable Beerenberg Holdco Ii As B+ Stable Bw Offshore BB+ Stable Cargotec Oyj BBBStable Carlsberg Breweries A/S Cermaq Asa BB Stable Citycon Oyj Color Group As BBStable B+ Danske Bank A/S Dfds A/S BB+ Stable Dlg Finance As BBStable Dna Ltd BBBStable Dnb Bank Asa Dong Energy A/S Dsv A/S BBB Stable Eg Holding B Stable Eika Boligkreditt As AStable Eika Gruppen As BBB Stable Electrolux Ab Elisa Oyj Entra Eiendom As AStable Farstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BBFingrid Oyj Finnair Oyj BB Stable Fortum Oyj Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab Fred Olsen Energy Asa BB+ Neg G4S Plc Getinge Ab BB+ Neg Heimstaden Ab BB Stable BBHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable Hoist Kredit Ab BBStable B+ Husqvarna Ab BBBPos Investor Ab Iss A/S J Lauritzen A/S B Stable BJernhusen Ab AStable Jyske Bank A/S Kesko Oyj BBB Stable Klaveness Ship Holding As BBStable B+ Meda Ab BBStable Metsa Board Oyj Metso Oyj Ncc Ab BBBStable Neste Oil Oyj BBBStable Nokia Oyj Nokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Nordea Bank Ab North Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB Stable BBNorwegian Air Shuttle Asa BBStable B+ Norwegian Property Asa BBBStable Nykredit Bank A/S Nynas Group B+ Stable B+ Odfjell Se B+ Stable B Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Olympic Shipping As B+ Stable B Orkla Asa BBB+ Pos Outokumpu Oyj BPos Pohjola Bank Oyj Posten Norge As AStable Postnord Ab BBB+ Stable Prosafe Se BB Stable Ramirent Oyj BB+ Stable S&P Rating Outlook Moody's Rating Outlook BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable A AA- Stable Stable A2 A1 Stable Stable Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Baa2 Stable A Neg Baa1 Pos Fitch Rating Outlook BBB Stable A Stable A+ BBB+ Stable Stable A1 Baa1 Neg Stable BBB BBB Pos Wr Baa2 Stable A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable ABBB+ Neg Stable A2 Neg A- Neg BBB- Stable AABBB- Stable Stable A1 Baa3 Stable Stable A- Stable Baa1 Neg B+ BBB Pos Stable B2 Baa2 Pos Neg BB Pos Ba2 Stable BB Stable AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable BBB+ Stable WD Analyst(s) Mads Rosendal Wiveca Swarting Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting Mads Rosendal Mads Rosendal Åse Haagensen T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Øyvind Mossige Øyvind Mossige Mads Rosendal Brian Børsting Knut-Ivar Bakken Åse Haagensen Åse Haagensen Brian Børsting Mads Rosendal Ola Heldal T. Hovard / L. Holm Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting Jakob Magnussen T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting Ola Heldal Åse Haagensen Åse Haagensen Jakob Magnussen Brian Børsting Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting Louis Landeman Wiveca Swarting Wiveca Swarting Gabriel Bergin Louis Landeman Brian Børsting Brian Børsting Åse Haagensen Gabriel Bergin Thomas M. Hovard Mads Rosendal Bjørn Kristian Røed Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal Mads Rosendal Wiveca Swarting Jakob Magnussen Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen T. Hovard / L. Holm Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting Åse Haagensen T. Hovard / L. Holm Jakob Magnussen Bjørn Kristian Røed Åse Haagensen Åse Haagensen Åse Haagensen Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm Åse Haagensen Gabriel Bergin Åse Haagensen Brian Børsting Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets 8| 24 October 2014 www.danskeresearch.com Recomm. BUY SELL HOLD SELL HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY SELL BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL BUY SELL Weekly Credit Update Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank markets shadow ratings Company Saab Ab Sampo Oyj Sandnes Sparebank Sandvik Ab Sas Ab Sbab Bank Ab Scania Ab Schibsted Asa Seadrill Ltd Securitas Ab Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab Skanska Ab Skf Ab Solstad Offshore Asa Spar Nord Bank A/S Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As Sparebank 1 Nord Norge Sparebank 1 Smn Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa Sponda Oyj St1 Nordic Oy Statkraft Sf Statnett Sf Statoil Asa Steen & Strom As Stena Ab Stockmann Oyj Abp Stolt-Nielsen Ltd Stora Enso Oyj Storebrand Bank Asa Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys Swedavia Ab Swedbank Ab Swedish Match Ab Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca Svenska Handelsbanken Ab Sydbank A/S Tallink Group As Talvivaara Mining Co Plc Tdc A/S Teekay Offshore Partners Lp Tele2 Ab Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson Telenor Asa Teliasonera Ab Teollisuuden Voima Oyj Thon Holding As Tine Sa Upm-Kymmene Oyj Vasakronan Ab Vattenfall Ab Vestas Wind Systems A/S Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa Volvo Ab Yit Oyj Rating BBB+ BBB+ BBB BB+ Danske Bank Outlook Sr. Unsec Stable Stable Stable Stable BBBBB+ A- Stable Stable Stable Fitch Rating Outlook BBB BA A- Stable Stable Neg Stable Wr A2 Pos Neg BBB A+ Stable Neg Wr A1 Neg BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable A2 A2 A2 Neg Neg Neg BB A+ Pos B+ A AA- Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable BBB+ Stable B+ BB+ Stable Stable BBB+ AA- Stable Stable Stable BBB Moody's Rating Outlook Wr Baa2 Stable Stable BBB+ BBBBB S&P Rating Outlook AA+ AA- Stable Stable Stable Aaa Wr Aa2 Stable Stable Stable BB Stable B2 Stable BB BBB+ Stable Neg Ba2 Baa1 Neg Neg WD A+ BBB Neg Stable A1 Baa2 Neg Stable A+ Pos AAA- Stable Neg Baa1 Aa3 Baa1 Stable Neg Neg AA- Stable BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Stable BBB+ AABBB Stable Pos Stable Neg Baa1 A3 A3 Wr Stable Stable Neg BBB+ Neg ABBB Stable Stable BB Pos Ba1 Stable WD A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable BB Stable BB C Stable BB- BBBBB Stable Stable B+ BBB+ BBB+ Stable Stable BBB+ Stable BBBBBB- Pos Stable B Neg Analyst(s) Wiveca Swarting T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Mads Rosendal Åse Haagensen Sondre Stormyr Brian Børsting T. Hovard / L. Holm Wiveca Swarting Mads Rosendal Åse Haagensen T. Hovard / L. Holm Lars Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Wiveca Swarting Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Jakob Magnussen Åse Haagensen Brian Børsting Mads Rosendal Bjørn Kristian Røed Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Gabriel Bergin T. Hovard / L. Holm Brian Børsting Louis Landeman Mads Rosendal T. Hovard / L. Holm T. Hovard / L. Holm Jakob Magnussen Mads Rosendal Ola Heldal Bjørn Kristian Røed Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Ola Heldal Jakob Magnussen Åse Haagensen Ola Heldal Mads Rosendal Wiveca Swarting Jakob Magnussen Niklas Ripa Bjørn Kristian Røed Mads Rosendal Louis Landeman Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets 9| 24 October 2014 www.danskeresearch.com Recomm. HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY SELL HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD SELL BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD SELL BUY HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD Weekly Credit Update Fixed Income Credit Research Thomas Hovard Head of Credit Research (+45) 45 12 85 05 [email protected] Louis Landeman TMT, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80524 [email protected] Åse Haagensen High Yield, Industrials (+47) 22 86 13 22 [email protected] Mads Rosendal Industrials, Pulp & Paper (+45) 45 14 88 79 [email protected] Jakob Magnussen Utilities, Energy (+45) 45 12 85 03 [email protected] Brian Børsting Industrials (+45) 45 12 85 19 [email protected] Gabriel Bergin Strategy, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80602 [email protected] Niklas Ripa High Yield, Industrials (+45) 45 12 80 47 [email protected] Bjørn Kristian Røed Shipping (+47) 85 40 70 72 [email protected] Ola Heldal TMT (+47) 85408433 [email protected] Wiveca Swarting Real Estate, Construction (+46) 8 568 80617 [email protected] Sondre Dale Stormyr Offshore rigs (+47) 85 40 70 70 [email protected] Henrik René Andresen Credit Portfolios (+45) 45 13 33 27 [email protected] Øyvind Mossige Oil services (+47) 85 40 54 91 [email protected] Knut-Ivar Bakken Fish farming (+47) 85 40 70 74 [email protected] Lars Holm Financials (+45) 45 12 80 41 [email protected] Find the latest Credit Research Danske Bank Markets: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch 10 | 24 October 2014 Bloomberg: DNSK<GO> www.danskeresearch.com Weekly Credit Update Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). 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