Key Messages from WGII AR5 Impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities Lennart Olsson CLA, Ch 13 on Livelihoods and Poverty; CCB-HS LUCSUS – Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund University, Sweden www.lucsus.lu.se 1.Key features of AR5 WG II 2.What CC impacts can we see so far 3.What are the risks of future CC – focus SE Europe 4.What can adaption do for us? AR4 7. Industry, Settlement and Society 8. Human Health AR5 AR4 AR5 8. Urban Areas 9. Rural Areas 10. Key Economic Sectors 11. Human Heath 12. Human Security 13. Livelihoods and Poverty 17. Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity 18. Inter-relationships Between Adaptation and Mitigation 14. Adaptation Needs and Options 15. Adaptation Planning and Implementation 16. Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits 17. Economics of Adaptation 1.Key features of AR5 WG II 2.What CC impacts can we see so far 3.What are the risks of future CC – focus SE Europe 4.What can adaption do for us? Calibrated uncertainty language M H VH L M H VL L M Mastrandrea M., et al 2010: Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties According to the WGI, it is very likely that the number and intensity of hot days have increased markedly in the last three decades and virtually certain that this increase will continue into the late 21st century. In addition, it is likely that the occurrence of heat waves (multiple days of hot weather in a row) has more than doubled in some locations, but very likely that there will be more frequent heat waves over most land areas after mid-century. The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe. Barriopedro 2011 (Science 8 Apirl 2011) France 2003 (15 000) Europe 2003 (35 000 70 000) Russia 2010 (55 000) Summary of estimated impacts of observed climate changes on yields over 1960-2013 for four major crops in temperate and tropical regions, with the number of data points analyzed given for each category Brisson, N., 2010: Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? A comprehensive data analysis for France. Field Crops Research 119 201-212 Heat effect Rainfall effect The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States David B. Lobell, Graeme L. Hammer, Greg McLean, Carlos Messina, Michael J. Roberts andWolfram Schlenker NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, VOL 3, MAY 2013, p 497-501 1.Key features of AR5 WG II 2.What CC impacts can we see so far 3.What are the risks of future CC – focus SE Europe 4.What can adaption do for us? i) Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea level rise.37 [RFC 1-5] ii) Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions.38 [RFC 2 and 3] iii) Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services.39 [RFC 2-4] iv) Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.40 [RFC 2 and 3] v) Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings.41 [RFC 2-4] vi) Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions.42 [RFC 2 and 3] vii) Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in the tropics and the Arctic.43 [RFC 1, 2, and 4] viii) Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.44 [RFC 1, 3, and 4] Risk-Level EUROPE Very Low Increased Flood Losses and Impacts Present Very High Potential for Risk Level with Additional Current Adaptation Adaptation to Reduce Risk Increased Losses and Impacts from Extreme Heat Events 2030-40 2080-2100; 2°C 2080-2100; 4°C Increased Water Restrictions very low Risk Level with High Adaptation Med very high ‘… the frequency of dangerous heat conditions also increases significantly faster and more strongly’ 2021-2050 2071-2100 SRES A1B ca RCP6.0 E. M. Fischer and C. Schär: Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. NATURE GEOSCIENCE JUNE 2010, 398-403 SRES A2, Similar to RCP8.5 SREX [3.5.1, Figure 3-9] Figure TS.6 | (A) Percentage change of mean annual streamflow for a global mean temperature rise of 2°C above 1980–2010. Color hues show the multi-model mean change across 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 11 Global Hydrological Models (GHMs), and saturation shows the agreement on the sign of change across all 55 GHM–GCM combinations (percentage of model runs agreeing on the sign of change). • mid Pliocene (3.3 – 3.0 ma), 1.9 – 3.3 °C , 350-45 ppm CO2: up to +20 m GSL • Last interglacial (129 – 116 ka), about +2 °C: °C +5-10 m GSL • 1901 – 2010: 1.7 mm/year; 1993 – 2010: 3.2 mm/year TFE.2, Figure 2 | Compilation of paleo sealevel data (purple), tide gauge data (blue, red and green), altimeter data (light blue) and central estimates and likely ranges for projections of global mean sea level rise from the combination of CMIP5 and process-based models for RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red) scenarios, all relative to pre-industrial values. {Figures 13.3, 13.11, 13.27} 1.Key features of AR5 WG II 2.What CC impacts can we see so far 3.What are the risks of future CC – focus SE Europe 4.What can adaption do for us? Adaptation is place- and context-specific, with no single approach for reducing risks appropriate across all settings! Key Messages from WGII AR5 Impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities Lennart Olsson CLA, Ch 13 on Livelihoods and Poverty; CCB-HS LUCSUS – Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund University, Sweden www.lucsus.lu.se Peters, Marland etal 2011 IPCC AR5 WGIII, SPM