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MLH DAILY UPDATE
DAILY UPDATE 02/11/2015
Mike Hall
217-717-4394
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
**** 6-10 Day Forecast: Below Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip.
**** Grain markets trading lower this morning. Markets finding selling after yesterday’s friendly Corn
and Soybean numbers were unable to support the markets. Pressure coming from the World numbers
and the oncoming record Soybean harvest in South America.
**** Crude Oil lower $49.74 off .28
**** Gold higher $1232.50 up .90
**** The Dollar is trading slightly higher early this morning.
**** World stocks, Japan off 0.3% China up 0.5% Europe off 0.3% Dow futures off 31 points.
**** Dalian Exchange, Soybean, Corn and Soybean Meal futures lower. **** Palm Oil off 1.0%
**** The USDA will release updated Base Line acreage numbers this morning. Reports yesterday that the
numbers would be unchanged from those released in December. The December numbers had Corn acres
at 88.0 million, Soybeans 84.0 million and Wheat at 56.0 million.
****The Brazil Soybean processors association raised their estimate for Brazil 2014/15 Soybean
production to 92.3 mmt. up from their previous estimate of 91.9 mmt. but down from yesterdays’ USDA
estimate of 94.5 mmt.
**** USDA is forecasting net farm income in 2015 will drop 32% as Corn and Soybean prices are
expected to remain low and expenses creep higher. Net 2015 income is forecast at $73.6 billion down from
the record in 2013 of $129 billion.
**** Tuesday Funds, Sold 7,000 Corn, 7,000 Soybeans, 6,000 Wheat, 2,000 Meal, 3,000 Oil.
**** Goldman roll ends tomorrow.
**** The Brazil farmer was good seller of cash Soybeans again yesterday as Brazil’s currency the Real
was sharply lower and hit a 10 year low.
Basis levels weakened at Parangua with the March/April/May slots off 2 to 4 cents.
**** Looks like someone is caught short Soybeans at the Gulf. Talk near port barges would trade
somewhere near +95 while STL. south traded +90.
**** South Korea bought 128,000 mt. of opt. org. Corn for Aug/Sept.
South Korea bought 55,000 mt. opt. org. Feed Wheat for June.
************************************** Cash Markets **************************************
CIF Corn steady.
FH Feb. +54 to +60, LH Feb. +55 to +60, Mar. +57 to +60,
Apr. +54 to +57, May +54 to +57, June +52 to +56
River House bids: STL. off 4 at +14 Havana off 2 -4
NS rail cent IL. Feb. -1 Mar. -3 A/M -5
PNW Corn trains: Feb. +104 Mar. +103 Apr. +95
PNW Bean Trains: Feb. +108 Mar. +100
****CIF Soybeans steady off 3.
FH Feb. +85 to +90, Feb. +77 to +82, Mar. +71 to +75
AM +61 to +65, Oct. +75 to +80
River house bids : STL off 2 +32 Havana unch +17.
Processor bids. Decatur +15 Bloomington +6 Gibson City +7
**** CIF SR Wheat steady. Feb. +80 to +95 Mar. +80 to +95 Mar. +70 to +??
*** Barge freight: STL 300- 310 IL. River 400 – 410 Ohio 340 – 375
Ethanol Plant Bids
Northeast OH
Central IN
Central IA
South Central MN
Northeast SD
Northeast IL
Today
0
-6
-18
-18
-40
0
Yesterday
+1
-6
-20
-18
-40
0
Last Week
-3
-8
-20
-18
-40
-1
MLH DAILY UPDATE
DAILY UPDATE 02/11/2015
_______________________________________________________________
Bid
Ask ICG Soybeans
Bid Ask Corn Delv. Chicago
ICG Corn
Feb.
Mar.
A/M
J/J
-12
-8
-10
-10
Feb.
+5
Feb.
Mar.
+15
+17
Rail bids supplied by Laclede Trading, Carmel, IN 317-581-8916
(*denotes traded)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CORN BASIS
CIF
DECATUR
S TL
CHICAGO
TOLEDO
Today
Yesterday
Last Wk.
Last Yr.
5 Year Average
+54
+54
+59
+74
+62 1/2
SOYBEAN BASIS
Today
Yesterday
Last Wk.
Last Yr.
5 Year Average
+7
+5
+5
+11
+13
CIF
+14
+18
+14
+21
+12 1/2
DECATUR
+80
+83
+81
+90
+76
+15
+15
+12
+15
+14 1/2
+2
+2
-6
+1
+3
S TL
+32
+34
+30
+36
+28
-7
-8
-8
-10
-9
CHICAGO
TOLEDO
Opt.
Opt.
Opt.
+5
-3
-13
-13
-13
+7
-11
TODAY
YESTERDAY
LAST WEEK
300%
400%
340%
300%
400%
325%
325%
430%
340%
Barge Freight
STL
IL River
Ohio
________________________________________________SPREAD DATA______________________________________________
Full Carry % Full Carry Spread
0.2312 68.12% CH/CN
0.1169 64.18% CK/CN
0.1746 35.79% CN/CU
0.3482 42.36%
CN/CZ
0.1411 37.20%
SH/SK
0.2872 -90.54%
SN/SX
0.1409 39.02%
SK/SN
0.1405 37.37%
SX/SF
0.1221 4.10% WH/WK
Close
-15.75
-7.50
-6.25
-14.75
-5.25
26.00
-5.50
-5.25
-0.50
Yest. Last Week
-15.50 -15.25
-7.25 -7.25
-6.25 -6.75
-14.50 -15.25
-6.50 -6.00
26.25 31.75
-5.75 -5.00
-5.25 -4.75
-0.50 -4.00
Last Yr. Pit Volume
-11.75
30248
-6.00
16303
-1.25
2602
-3.50
6400
13.25
10608
179.25
7646
16.75
2324
-4.75
2
-0.25
2143
Electronic Volume
19149
11
2686
4331
55651
5375
14485
74
45788
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