GeofinComtrade Ltd.
Geojit BNP Paribas Bldg,
10th Floor, 34/659-P,
Civil Line Road, Padivattom.
Kochi-682 024 Kerala
Phone: 91 484 2901058
Email: [email protected]
[email protected]
Geofin Research Desk,
Kochi
Anu V Pai
Analyst
Monday, February 16, 2015
Rubber Report
MCX Member code:
40220 FMC No.: MCX/TCM/CORP/1710
NCDEX Member code :
00920 FMCNo.:NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0895
A Daily Report on Natural Rubber
NMCE Member code:
CL0324 FMC No.: NMCE/TCM/CORP/0245
OPENING SIGNALS
ACE Member code:
6192 FMC No: ACEL/TCM/CORP/0429
Commodity
Disclaimer: Trading/investing in Commodity Derivatives
involves considerable risk you may lose part or all of the
initial investment. It is not ideal for all types of investors,
and you are advised to seek professional assistance before
the same. Past performance may not necessarily be repeated
in the future. The news and views posted on this report is
based on information which is believed to be accurate. This
report is provided to enable you to make your own
Last Price
% Chg
Nymex Crude Oil ($/bbl)
52.66
-0.23
Tokyo Commodity Exchange Rubber(Y/kg)
223.0
1.00
Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand
Rubber(TBH/kg)
-
-
14080
1.99
Shanghai Futures Exchange Rubber(CNY/ton)
investment decisions and should not be construed as
investment advice. The anticipatory moves mentioned in the
report are purely subject to technical studies and does not
take into consideration sudden currency volatility and data
events.
The
author,
directors
and/or
employees
of
GeofinComtrade cannot be held responsible for the accuracy
Currency
% Chg
USD/INR
62.12
0.09
USD/ JPY
118.43
-0.26
of the content posted on this report or for decisions taken by
the readers based on such information
Last Price
* LTP: Last traded price at 9:36 am IST.
RUBBER REPORT
February 16, 2015
MARKET COMMENTARY
⊳Moves were rather volatile in the local natural rubber market last week. Following an initial surge towards five
weeks high on NMCE, sharp declines were witnessed last week before bouncing back towards the close of the
week. A similar trend was witnessed in the physical market too. While worries over demand from the tyre sector
continued to weigh on, positive moves in the international natural rubber markets along with short covering
provided firm support for prices to bounce back. In the international market, meanwhile, natural rubber prices
are seen stretching previous day’s gains. On Monday, TOCOM as well as SHFE rubber futures gained more than one
per cent buoyed by a recovery in crude oil prices amidst the lean production in the major natural rubber growing
countries. However, concerns over demand from China kept gains under check. China markets are to close soon
for a week long Lunar New Year holidays.
MARKET NEWS
⊳Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 2.1 per cent last week to 168312 tonnes.
⊳According to the Rubber Board, natural rubber imports by India jumped 47 per cent in January to 30441 tonnes
on year on year basis.
⊳Media report says India likely to raise import duty on natural rubber to 30 per cent from 20 per cent to protest
the domestic growers from cheap imports and check further decline in prices. The hike may to be announced in
the next Union Budget.
⊳Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 12976tonnes as of Jan. 20, down 0.5 percent from 10 days
earlier, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
⊳the 2nd edition of India Rubber Meet will be held on 04 and 05 March 2015 at Le Meridian Convention Center,
Kochi and will be inaugurated by Hon’ble Minister of Commerce and Industry Ms. NirmalaSitharaman.
⊳The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and the government will instruct the Government Savings
Bank and Krung Thai Bank to provide business operators with soft loans worth 25 billion baht ($768 million) to buy
natural rubber from farmers, the Bangkok Post reported, quoting Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister
PrawitWongsuwon.
⊳The United States is set to slap more duties on imports of tires from China after the Department of Commerce
determined they were sold too cheaply in the United States.
⊳Ivory Coast's natural rubber output for 2014 reached 311,429 tonnes, exceeding a forecast of 296,456 tonnes,
the head of the natural rubber association said.
TECHNICAL COMMENTRY
RUBBER Mar NMCE
It looks as if some more upsides are in
store, possibly towards 12775-12900
ranges, following the bounce back seen
from 12200. However, it is mandatory to
clear and sustain over 13000 to
strengthen
the
prevailing
positive
momentum. Alternatively, slippage past
12450 may take prices further lower
though major downsides may be
anticipated only below 12050.
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in
SUPPORTS
12050/11900
12200/12120
12450-12380
TURNAROUND
LEVEL
13000-12050
RESISTANCES
12650/12775
12900/13000
13120/13300
RUBBER REPORT
February 16, 2015
ARBITRAGE WINDOW
Across Domestic and International Market
Kottayam RSS4 Spot Price: Rs.139.80kg Latex (drc 60%):Rs.82.40/kg
(Rubber Board Rates)
Contract
Feb-15
Open
12425
NMCE RUBBER FUTURES
High
Low
Last
% Chg Vol
12540 12315 12850
4.36
294
Mar-15
12550
12645
12490
12554
0.72
Apr-15
12584
12750
12575
12638
May-15
12782
12782
12700
12700
SPREAD
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
1476
-66
1906
53
0.93
454
-418
716
20
0.82
32
26
35
14
Close (Rs/kg)
Chg
Bangkok(RSS3) Spot
116.49
1.28
Malaysia(SMR20) Spot
88.63
1.73
-146
AFET(RSS3)Sep 15
116.66
2.95
-62
Tocom(RSS3)Jul 15
115.51
1.51
Shanghai(RSS3) May 15
137.88
3.38
1426
1342
1280
0
296
212
150
0
-84
0
Mar-15
▲OI
-14
INTERNATIONAL RUBBER PRICES (in Rs.)
1130
Feb-15
OI
480
Apr-15
May-15
0
Orgin
SPREAD
VALID WAREHOUSE RECEIPTS and OI
Domestic and International NR Prices
(NMCE)
10.00
5000
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
-30.00
4000
3000
2000
1000
-40.00
-70.00
Valid WH Receipts
NMCE FUTURES v/s SPOT
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
--51.17
Sep-14
Malaysia
--23.31
Jul-14
Bangkok
May-14
-60.00
Aug-14
0
-50.00
Jun-14
-20.00
Sep-13
-10.00
Jun-13
0.00
OI/WH Receipts
6000
Spread(in Rs.)
20.00
Total OI
PVO ANALYSIS (NMCE Feb)
3500
12800
14000
3000
12600
13500
2500
12400
13000
2000
12200
1500
12000
1000
11800
500
11600
Volume & OI
Price in Rs/100kg
14500
12500
12000
11500
NMCE
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in
SPOT
Vol
OI
Feb-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
11400
Jan-15
0
Jan-15
11000
Nov-14
Close
Date
Price
Spot
▲ Vol
20
RUBBER REPORT
February 16, 2015
WEATHER
Daily Weather: Kerala (Source: IMD)
SUMMARY: Rain occurred at isolated places in Kerala.
Dry weather prevailed over Lakshadweep. The chief
amounts of rainfall reports in cm are: Kollam 3,
Punalur (Kollam district) 2 & Kurudamannil
(Pathanamthitta district) 1. Minimum temperature
fell in Kollam district and changed little in the
remaining districts. Punalur recorded the lowest
minimum temperature of 21oC.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR 3 DAYS# UPTO 0830
HOURS
IST
OF
18TH
FEBRUARY
2015:
Rain/thundershower will occur at isolated places in
Kerala on 15/02/2015. Dry weather will prevail over
Kerala on 16/02/2015 & 17/02/2015 and over
Lakshadweep from 15/02/2015 to 17/02/2015.
WEATHER WARNING FOR 3 DAYS:
15TH February 2015 (Day 1): No weather warning.
16TH February 2015 (Day 2): No weather warning.
17TH February 2015 (Day 3): No weather warning.
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT 4 DAYS#
FROM 18/02/2015 TO 0830 HOURS IST OF
22/02/2015: No significant change.
(Source: IMD)
HOLIDAY CALENDAR
Month/Year
FEBRUARY 2015
Date
Exchange/Country
Occasion/Event
11
TOCOM
National Foundation Day
17
NMCE
Mahashivratri
18 to 24
SHFE
Spring Festival
19
INDONESIA
Chinese New Year
19 & 20
MALAYSIA
Chinese New Year
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in
RUBBER REPORT
February 16, 2015
Geofin Research Team, Kochi
Phone: 91 484 290 1058/1059
91 484 3202393
Mobile: 91 9388 465 650
Email: [email protected]
Hareesh V
Head of Commodity Research
[email protected]
Krishnaprasad NB
Analyst
[email protected]
Vinod T. P.
Analyst
[email protected]
Abraham Francis
Analyst
[email protected]
Anu V Pai
Analyst
[email protected]
VishidhaVijayakumar
Analyst
[email protected]
This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from GeofinComtrade Ltd.
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in