2015: Issue 463, Week: 23rd - 26th February 2015 A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only) Brand smc 287 WISE M NEY From The Desk Of Editor Contents Equity 4-7 Derivatives 8-9 Commodity 10-13 Currency 14 IPO 15 Fixed Deposit 16 Mutual Fund 17-18 G lobal stock markets rose during the week on the back of hope of Greece reaching the deal and on the improvement in the economic data out of U.S. Jobless claims in U.S. fell more than expected showing improvement in the economic outlook. European stock advanced on optimism that the Greece would broke a deal with Euro area creditors. Japanese stock too saw smart move as the economic data showed that the exports have risen to 17% from a year earlier, substantially higher than the estimates of 13.5%. Bank of Japan maintained unprecedented monetary stimulus aiming to stoke a recovery from recession and counter a slowdown in inflation. The bank of Japan, as per the statement released SMC RESEARCH TEAM recently, will boost the monetary base at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($670 REGISTERED OFFICES: 11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005. billion). Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365 MUMBAI OFFICE: Dheeraj Sagar, 1st Floor, Opp. Goregaon sports Club, Link Road Malad (West), Mumbai 400064 Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-28805606 KOLKATA OFFICE: Back at home, Indian stock markets cheered on the optimism that the government would fasten the economic reforms after as market participants saw good response to coal auctions. Going next week, domestic markets are likely to behave in a 18,Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4,5th Floor, Kolkata-700001 volatile manner on account of expiry of derivative contracts of the current month Tel : 91-33-39847000 Fax No : 91-33-39847004 and Union Budget for 2015-16, which is scheduled on 28th February. The budget to AHMEDABAD OFFICE : be presented is of utmost importance as it will give a view of the government on 10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market, C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03 how would it stimulate growth in the years to come. On the earning front, earnings of India's largest companies fell more than expected in the latest quarter, adding to CHENNAI OFFICE: Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road, doubt over market rally that started in early 2014. It was the third consecutive Chetpet, Chennai - 600031. quarter that profits had failed to match up to expectations of the many companies. Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111 SECUNDERABAD OFFICE: 206, 3rd Floor, above CMR Exclusive, Bhuvana Towers, S.D.Road, Secunderabad - 500003 Tel: 91-40-30780298/99, 39109536 DUBAI OFFICE: 312, Belshalat Building, Al Karama, Dubai, P.O. Box 117210, U.A.E. Tel: 97143963120, Mobile : 971502612483 Fax : 9714 3963122 Email ID : [email protected] [email protected] Printed and Published on behalf of On the commodities front, Greece debt crises along with movement of dollar index and performance of key economic indicators will continue to give direction to the bullion counter. The minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed that some officials thought that raising rates too soon could weigh on the U.S. economic recovery, and that deterioration in the global economic outlook could also pose a threat to the recovery. Meanwhile, spurt in the geopolitical tensions in Libya may give support to the crude oil. Weather concerns may keep the natural gas prices on volatile path. Some short covering activities can be seen in the base metal counter Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address when China market opens from 25th February. This week, key economic releases 11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005 are US existing home sales data, consumer confidence, durable goods orders and US Website: www.smcindiaonline.com Investor Grievance : [email protected] GDP data along with China manufacturing PMI, which will give further direction to metals and energy. Printed at: S&S MARKETING 102, Mahavirji Complex LSC-3, Rishabh Vihar, New Delhi - 110092 (India) Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 43035014, Email: [email protected] (Saurabh Jain) SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. SMC is in the process of making an application with SEBI for registering as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market. SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst. The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true. SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision. SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public offering of its equity shares and has filed the Draft Red Herring Prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and the Stock Exchanges. The Draft Red Herring Prospectus is available on the website of SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and on the websites of the Book Running Lead Manager i.e., ICICI Securities Limited at www.icicisecurities.com and the Co- Book Running Lead Manager i.e., Elara Capital (India) Private Limited at www.elaracapital.com . Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk and for details relating to the same, please see the section titled “Risk Factors” of the aforementioned offer document. SPICES BULLIONS Turmeric futures (Apr) may continue to trade on a bullish note & test 9300 levels. However, a profit booking at higher levels cannot be ruled out. Fundamentally, the underlying sentiments are firm as demand for the yellow spice is rising at the spot markets. The stockist are showing keen interest in new crop as there are expectations that the upcountry exporters will soon get fresh orders from North India. Moreover, higher export demand from overseas countries is expected to continue for Indian turmeric due to its high curcumin content. The supply side fundamentals are citing that the pace of arrivals from the fresh crop will pick up from March as the harvesting is under process. Jeera futures (Mar) is likely to gain for the second consecutive week & trade in the range of 14800-15800 levels. This season the production is projected to be lower more than 20% as farmers shifted to other remunerative crops amid poor yield on bad weather. The current year production may be around 2,64,000 MT as compared to the last year 3,41,000 MT. Cardamom futures (Mar) is likely to consolidate in the range of 1095-1140 levels. In the current scenario, the stockiest are reportedly liquidating their stocks. Secondly, over 60% of the harvesting is over and hence, arrival of good quality material has declined. The bearish trend in Coriander futures (Apr) is likely to prevail & the counter may test 6400-6300 levels owing to higher output. Coriander production this year is expected at 2-2.5 crore bags (40kg each), more than four times as compared to last year. The new crop has started arriving in domestic market with higher moisture content. Gold can trade on weaker path but some short covering can be seen after the recent fall. Greece debt crises, movement of greenback and performance of key economic releases may give direction to the prices. Gold can move in the range of 25600-27500 while silver can move in the range of 35000-39000. Recently Federal Reserve's last meeting showed some policy makers argued for keeping interest rates near record lows for longer time. Many officials pointed to risks ranging from a stronger dollar to turmoil in Greece as weakening the case for the first rate increase since 2006, a record of the Jan. 27-28 meeting showed. Gold imports to top consumer India are set to jump in coming months after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) eased gold import curbs, ahead of an expected cut in import duty in this week's budget. The Reserve Bank of India recently eased gold import norms in a move that could increase gold supply, nominated banks have been allowed to import gold on "consignment basis" and lend it to local jewellers. RBI removed ban on imports of gold coins and medallions. Under this system, banks source or borrow gold from international bullion banks and lend the yellow metal to domestic jewellers. The borrowing and the lending rates are fixed simultaneously. It not only enables banks to earn good margin, but also ensures supply to the domestic market. Annual central bank gold demand was up 17% to 477tonnes. This was particularly evident in the last quarter of 2014, when demand was up 40% year on year to 119 tonnes. OIL AND OILSEEDS Soybean futures (Apr) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3340-3480 levels & trade with a downside bias due to lack of fresh cues of demand from the domestic as well as international markets. The counter is reeling under global supply pressure and facing weak export demand for soy meal. In recent days, the solvent extractors have been severely affected by soybean crushing disparity. The negative crush margin continues to be a discouraging for the soybean crushers. U.S soybean futures may trade sideways with upside getting capped amid optimism over crop prospects in Brazil and Argentina. As cited by the Rosario Grains Exchange, Argentina will produce a record 58 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2014-15 & Brazil's soybean crop is now being estimated at 94.6 million tonnes. Mustard futures (Apr) would possibly consolidate in the range of 3300-3450 levels, with downside getting capped supported by reports of lower production. As cited in the 2nd advance estimates of production by the Ministry of Agriculture, India is set to harvest 7.36 million tonnes of rapeseed in 2014-15, lower by 7.54% as compared to 2013-14. CPO futures (Apr) would possibly remain firm in the range of 460-485 levels on good demand from stockist and retailers as well as seasonal offtake. On the international market, the fundamentals highlight that Indonesian crude palm oil output is estimated to have fallen around 5% in January from December 2014, hit by wet weather in key growing regions & Malaysia's January palm oil end-stocks probably dropped to their lowest level in six months after flooding in the Borneo region coupled with low yields reduced output to the lowest level since February 2011. ENERGY COMPLEX Crude oil may trade on volatile path as on the one hand decline in oil rig count and geopolitical tensions are supporting the prices while on the other hand supply glut scenario is keeping the upside capped. In recent weeks crude has dropped on EIA reports of inventory builds, then got support after firm Baker Hughes showed the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil at three-year lows. Crude oil can move in the range of $47-$58 in NYMEX and 3000-3400 in MCX. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 7.7 million to a record 425.64 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 13, said the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The build was the biggest weekly addition in barrels since records began in 1982, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 3.2 million barrel rise. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, and delivery hub rose 3.66 million to 46.26 million barrels, the EIA data showed. At the same time, production from the world's biggest exporter Saudi Arabia may be increasing to near 10 million barrels per day. Natural gas prices may trade on volatile path as US weather conditions will keep the sentiment mixed. Overall it can move in the range of 155-188 in MCX. The weather may be colder than normal in the Northeast and Midwest from Feb. 24 through March 5, according to WSI Corp. in Andover, Massachusetts. New York temperatures may slide to 11 degrees Fahrenheit on Feb. 26, 20 below normal, according to AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania. OTHER COMMODITIES The downtrend in barley futures (Apr) is likely to get extended towards 1100 levels as this season the acreage has increase over the normal area under cultivation. It is estimated that the total production of barley in the current year is likely to surge by 18% from the last year to reach 21.50 lakh tonnes as against 18 lakh tons. This is mainly on the account of strong sowing acreage coupled with better crop conditions in major producing states. Wheat futures (Mar) may fall further facing resistance near 1625 levels owing to expanding domestic inventories and widening a global grain glut. This season the output is estimated at 95.8 million metric tonnes in 2014-15, compared with an alltime high of 95.9 million tons a year earlier as cited by the Agriculture Ministry. Secondly, it is reported that the government had no immediate plans to export wheat from overflowing warehouses but could sell locally. Chana futures (Apr) is expected to maintain the bullish momentum & test 3730-3800 levels in days to come supported by reports of lower production & delayed arrivals this season. As cited in the 2nd advance estimates of production by the Ministry of Agriculture, production of pulses estimated at 18.43 million tonnes is lower by 1.35 million tonnes than the last year. Sugar futures (Mar) is expected to consolidate in the range of 2640-2740 levels as the gains may remain capped due to supply pressure. During this season, till 15th February, 2015 about 167.08 lakh tonnes of sugar has been produced as compared to 145.28 lakh tonnes in the same time during corresponding period. Giving a ray of hope, the Cabinet approved a higher subsidy of `4,000 a tonne for exports of raw sugar, a decision that could support local prices by reducing excess supplies as India stares at a glut in production. BASE METALS Base metals counter is expected to trade sideways with some short covering can be seen in aluminum and zinc. Copper may move in the range of 348-370. Copper prices have recovered around 8 percent since hitting the 5-1/2 year low in January, but the metal used in power and construction has still fallen some 9 percent so far this year. Copper has been stuck in a $5,300 to $5,800 trading band for the past month and traders expect little to change until postholiday trade revives in China as markets in China will reopen on Feb. 25. Trading companies operating in Shanghai's free trade zone are likely to cut back on using copper imports as a financing tool as they are now allowed to borrow from overseas banks more freely. The reduction would further hit China's imports of copper, which dropped off after Chinese banks tightened credit in the second half of last year amid probes of an alleged metal financing scam. More than 50 percent of China's refined copper imports in 2012-2013 were linked to financing deals. While Zinc moved in the range of 127-134. Meanwhile lead can move in the range of 108-115 in MCX .Aluminum may move in the range of 110-115 in MCX. Aluminium stocks held at three major Japanese ports climbed for a tenth month to hit a record high at the end of January, as robust imports met tepid domestic demand. Spot premiums have been below $425 per tonne in Japan due to higher inventories and as some Japanese companies want to cut their stocks by March 31.Nickel prices may trade in the range of 830-930. ® 10 COMMODITY TREND SHEET EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND PRICE CHANGED TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CHANGED CLOSING STOP/LOSS NCDEX SOYABEAN APR 3395.00 15.01.15 SIDEWAYS NCDEX JEERA MAR 15305.00 13.11.14 UP 12090.00 14500.00 NCDEX CHANA APR 3694.00 30.10.14 UP 3131.00 3400.00 NCDEX RM SEEDS APR 3359.00 22.01.15 DOWN 3431.00 - MCX MENTHA OIL MAR 756.40 29.05.14 SIDEWAYS 14000.00 3300.00 3500.00 3600.00 MCX CARDAMOM MAR 1146.40 01.01.15 UP 1038.40 980.00 920.00 MCX SILVER MAR 36420.00 11.12.14 UP 38668.00 36000.00 35000.00 409.00 - MCX GOLD APR 26266.00 12.02.15 SIDEWAYS MCX COPPER APR 363.45 16.10.14 DOWN 370.00 380.00 MCX LEAD MAR 112.15 11.09.14 DOWN 128.95 - 117.00 121.00 MCX ZINC MAR 129.55 15.01.15 DOWN 126.80 - 135.00 138.00 MCX NICKEL MAR 872.70 15.01.15 DOWN 891.40 - 960.00 980.00 MCX ALUMINUM MAR 113.25 15.01.15 DOWN 110.30 - 118.00 120.00 MCX CRUDE OIL MAR 3246.00 05.02.15 SIDEWAYS MCX NATURAL GAS MAR 177.80 04.12.14 DOWN 226.80 - 180.00 200.00 Closing as on 19.02.15 NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra). 2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view. TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS GUARSEED NCDEX (MARCH) GUARSEED NCDEX (MARCH) contract closed at `3729.00 on 19th February '15. The contract made its high of `4423.00 on 23rd January '15 and a low of `3643.00 on 12th February '15. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at `3964. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 33. One can sell in the range 3775-3790 with the stop loss of `3830 for a target of `3635. COPPER MCX (FEBRUARY) COPPER MCX (FEBRUARY) contract closed at `359.45 on 19th February '15. The contract made its high of `362.85 on 18th January '15 and a low of `332.80 on 29th January '15. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at `356. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49. One can buy in the range 356-354 with the stop loss of `351 for a target of `364. CASTORSEED NCDEX (MARCH) CASTORSEED NCDEX (MARCH) contract closed at `3793.00 on 19th February '15. The contract made its high of `4710.00 on 29th December '14 and a low of `3742.00 on 19th February '15. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at `4000. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 23. One can sell in the range 3870-3900 with the stop loss of `3960 for a target of `3700. ® 11 COMMODITY NEWS DIGEST WEEKLY COMMENTARY • TheLondon Bullion Market Association announced that it is set to launch the new the LBMA Gold Price on March 20 as the new pricing mechanism will replace the 96year old London Gold Fix. In the bullion counter, both gold and silver moved down as a rise in the dollar index and lack of safe haven demand kept the prices under pressure. Gold went below 26200 while silver tested 36100 in MCX. Confusion over Greece's debt negotiations with its European lenders dominated the markets. Financial markets had been under pressure as euro zone finance ministers were unable to agree with Greece a final statement or a way to continue talks until their next meeting on Monday to extend an international bailout. Recently, some officials in the FED advised to go slow in interest rates front and indirectly putting pressure on the Dollar Index. Good volatility was seen in Crude last week with inventory numbers from private sector major API depicting a huge rise by around 15 million barrels in crude stocks. In base metals counter all base metals plunged sharply lower except copper, which managed remain flat. Chinese funds helped drive a rout on copper markets last month that sent prices spiraling down to the lowest levels in 5-1/2 years amid worries about a slowing Chinese economy and surging copper inventories. Nickel plunged lower and tested key support of 870 while lead tested below 110.50. Aluminium tested key support of 112.40 in MCX. • According to EIA “U.S. natural gas consumption may climb 1.4 percent this year to 74.34 billion cubic feet a day, driven by industrial users and power plants”. • Output of rolled aluminium products by Japanese fabricators fell to 2.9 percent in December from a year earlier to 160,731 tonnes. • US University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index slipped to 93.6 in early February from a reading of 98.1 in January. • The government has added 38 more products to the list of commodities exempt from commodity transaction tax (CTT). Last week a major positive development took place which boosted the sentiments of the commodity markets as the Government exempted 38 more agriculture items from the ambit of the Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT), which was imposed in July 2013. Another ray of hope rekindled as the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) cleared a proposal to extend a subsidy of `4,000 a tonne on export of 1.4 million tonnes of raw sugar in the 2014-15 crop year to help millers export a portion of surplus production and will aid sugar mills to clear the cane price dues of farmers. As regards price movement of commodities, turmeric & jeera futures rallied the most in spices complex triggered by reports of lower production & demand from the upcountry exporters. Cotton prices also witnessed some upside momentum supported by lower level buying. On the other hand, coriander prices plunged owing to higher output & sustained elevated arrivals at the spot markets. Wheat futures also felt a downward pressure on account of bulging stocks at the granaries. The oilseeds counter trade sideways due to lack of fresh cues of demand from the overseas buyers. • The Centre has fixed wheat procurement target for the 2014-15 Rabi marketing season at 30.06 million tonnes (MT) against the actual procurement of 28.02 MT. • The Cabinet approved a higher subsidy of `4,000 a tonne for exports of raw sugar. The export incentive will be given for 1.4 million tonnes of raw sugar in the 2014-15 season, which began on October 1. • The second advance estimate figures of Rabi season pegged food grain production at 257.07 million tonnes (MT), against 264.77 MT in the fourth advance estimate. NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) 15.00 10.00 8.13 10.97 8.00 10.00 7.55 6.00 5.00 3.18 2.69 4.00 2.55 2.38 1.75 2.00 0.00 -2.77 -2.39 1.26 -1.93 0.00 -5.00 -5.61 -2.00 -10.00 -9.33 -3.24 -4.00 -3.59 -3.88 -4.85 -4.67 NICKEL SILVER -6.00 -15.00 TURMERIC JEERA NEW STEEL LONG SUGAR M KAPAS CORIANDER SILVER HEDGE WHEAT DELHI CASTOR SEED NEW GOLD HEDGE WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX) COMMODITY UNIT BAJRA CASTOR SEED CHANA CORIANDER COTTON (29MM) GUARGUM GUARSEED JEERA MAIZE RAPE MUSTARD SEED SOYABEAN TURMERIC WHEAT MT MT MT MT BALES MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT 12.02.15 QTY. 20 437725 40402 0 500 9868 13779 12286 16805 0 504 1144 674 19.02.15 QTY. 20 439889 39873 0 500 9564 13483 12451 16898 0 595 1563 1551 BR. CRUDE OIL CARDAMOM COTTON CPO CRUDE OIL ZINC GOLD PETAL (DEL) WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX) DIFFERENCE 0 2164 -529 0 0 -304 -296 165 93 0 91 419 877 COMMODITY UNIT 11.02.15 QTY. CARDAMOM 19.02.15 DIFFERENCE QTY. MT 23.10 27.10 4.00 BALES 57100.00 63400.00 6300.00 GOLD KGS 29.00 29.00 0.00 GOLD MINI KGS 8.10 8.00 -0.10 GOLD GUINEA KGS 25.97 25.97 0.00 MENTHA OIL KGS 3652547.30 3369825.75 -282721.55 SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 6997.02 6897.11 -99.91 COTTON ® 12 COMMODITY SPOT PRICES (% change) 2nd Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2014-15 JEERA (UNJHA) 7.17 TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD) According to 2nd Advance Estimates for 2014-15, released by the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation on 18th February, total foodgrains production in the country is estimated at 257.07 million tonnes which is the fourth highest quantity of annual foodgrains production in the country. This is 8.50 million tonnes lower as compared to record production of 265.57 million tonnes in 2013-14 final estimates. Despite of deficiency of 12% in the monsoon rainfall during the year, due to proactive measures of the Ministry of Agriculture, the loss in production has been restricted to just around 3% over the previous year. Lower production of rice, coarse cereals and pulses due to erratic rainfall conditions during the monsoon season-2014 has contributed to the overall decline in foodgrain output in crop year 2014-15. As per 2nd Advance Estimates, the productions of major crops during 2014-15 are as under: 4.97 MUSTARD (JAIPUR) 3.61 COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA) 2.89 COTTON (KADI) 1.97 SOYABEAN (INDORE) 1.72 CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA) 1.69 RAW JUTE (KOLKATA) 1.56 CHANA (DELHI ) 0.99 GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.) 0.52 REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE) 0.36 MENTHA OIL (BARANBAKI) 0.26 WHEAT (DELHI) -0.17 MASOOR (INDORE) -0.45 GUAR SEED (JODHPUR) -0.59 BARLEY (JAIPUR) -0.63 CHILLI (GUNTUR) -1.07 SUGAR (KOLKATA) -1.22 SILVER 5 KG (DELHI) -1.58 GUAR GUM (JODHPUR) -1.92 PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI) 2013-14 2nd Advance Estimates Rice 106.19 Wheat 95.60 Maize 23.29 Coarse Cereals 41.64 Tur 3.34 Gram 9.79 Urad 1.59 Moong 1.28 Total Pulses 19.77 Total Foodgrains 263.20 Groundnut 9.14 Rapeseed & Mustard 8.25 Soyabean 12.45 Total Nine Oilseeds 32.98 Cotton # 35.60 Jute, Mesta # # 11.30 Sugarcane 345.92 # million bales of 170 kgs each ## million bales of 180 kgs each -4.25 CORIANDER (KOTA) -14.13 -20.00 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES) COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE 12.02.15 19.02.15 ALUMINIUM 4001125 3968675 -32450 COPPER 289200 298075 8875 NICKEL 426090 425790 -300 LEAD 212700 212350 -350 ZINC 608000 586550 -21450 PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $) COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 13.02.15 19.02.15 CHANGE% ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1836.50 1818.00 COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 5735.00 5750.00 0.26 LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 1849.50 1800.00 -2.68 NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 14645.00 13985.00 -4.51 ZINC LME 2013-14 (Final) Crop 3 MONTHS 2151.00 2077.00 -1.01 -3.44 106.65 95.85 24.26 43.29 3.17 9.53 1.70 1.61 19.78 265.57 9.71 7.88 11.86 32.75 35.90 11.69 352.14 2014-15 2nd Advance Estimates 103.04 95.76 22.97 39.83 2.75 8.28 1.61 1.39 18.43 257.07 7.47 7.36 11.64 29.83 35.15 11.47 354.95 • Total production of rice in the country is estimated at 103.04 million tonnes which is lower by 3.61 million tonnes than the last year's record production of 106.65 million tonnes. • Production of wheat estimated at 95.76 million tonnes is marginally lower than the record production of 95.85 million tonnes of wheat during 2013-14. • Total production of Coarse Cereals estimated at 39.83 million tonnes is lower by 3.46 million tonnes than their production during 2013-14. • Production of pulses estimated at 18.43 million tonnes is lower by 1.35 million tonnes than the last year's production but higher by 0.81 million tonnes than their average production during the last five years. • With decrease of 2.92 million tonnes over the last year's production level, total production of oilseeds in the country is estimated at 29.83 million tonnes. • Production of sugarcane is estimated at 354.95 million tonnes which is higher by 17.14 million tonnes as compared to its average production of last five years. • Total production of cotton estimated at 35.15 million bales (of 170 kgs each) is significantly higher (by 2.68 million bales) than the average production of last 5 years. • Production of jute & Mesta is estimated at 11.47 million bales (of 180 kg each) which is lower by 0.22 million bales than their last year's production and marginally higher (0.18 million bales) over their average production levels. INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 13.02.15 19.02.15 CHANGE(%) GOLD COMEX APR 1227.10 1207.60 -1.59 Soya CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 990.50 1007.75 1.74 SILVER COMEX MAR 17.29 16.38 -5.28 Maize CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 387.25 389.75 0.65 LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX MAR 52.78 51.16 -3.07 NATURAL GAS NYMEX MAR 2.80 2.83 1.07 CPO BMD APR MYR per MT 2285.00 2300.00 0.66 Sugar LIFFE MAR 10 cents per MT 382.80 387.30 1.18 ® 13 INDIA'S BEST MARKET ANALYST COMMODITIES FUNDAMENTAL WIDE RANGE OF FINANCIAL PRODUCTS & SERVICES • ZEE Business Market Analyst Awards 2014
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