Commodities Evening Update Friday, December 26, 2014 International Commodities Content Day’s overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today Prathamesh Mallya Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Kaynat Chainwala Research Associate [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected] Commodities Evening Update Friday, December 26, 2014 International Commodities News and Analysis Index Europe, UK markets closed today on Boxing Day eve. SPDR gold holdings currently near 6-year lows. U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose by 7.3 mn bbl last week. European markets are closed today on the eve of Boxing Day holiday. Asian markets ended higher and the US stock futures are trading in the green. Indian Rupee is trading lower at 63.62 owing to FII profit booking and month end dollar demand. Also, fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers due to heavy foreign capital outflows acted as a negative factor. Spot gold prices are trading higher by more than 1 percent at 1186.61/oz. Although the dollar slipped against a basket of major currencies, the metal is headed for a second straight weekly drop, underscoring the bearishness in the market. Liquidity was thin as key markets in the region such as Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore were closed on Friday. The U.K. market will remain closed, although New York will be open. On the MCX, gold prices are trading higher by 1 percent and trading at Rs.26848/10gms. as at 4.00 pm -26th Dec’14 Performance during the day Nifty Open High Low % Chg from Prev day Last 8204.80 8234.55 8147.95 8200.70 0.33 Sensex 27215.19 27370.63 27091.38 27241.78 0.12 Nikkei 17778.91 17843.73 17769.01 17818.96 0.06 Kospi 1947.60 1954.77 1944.22 1948.16 0.08 FTSE 19088.16 19352.13 19011.24 19011.24 1.46 Source: Reuters as at 4.00 pm – 26th Dec’14 Currency Open High Low Chg from Prev day Current Dollar Index 90.12 90.25 90.07 90.235 0.01 Euro/$ Spot 1.2222 1.2227 1.2185 1.2192 -0.24 INR/$ Spot 63.45 63.685 63.45 63.625 0.17 Source: Reuters as at 4.00 pm –26th Dec’14 Commodity Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day Spot Gold $/oz 1172.70 1189.30 1172.7 1188.78 1.32 Comex Gold $/oz 1177.20 1184.60 1177.2 1184.50 0.94 Rs/10 gms 27054.00 27106.00 27030 27096.00 0.99 Spot Silver $/oz 15.72 16.13 15.69 16.11 2.61 Spot silver prices are trading higher today by more than 2.5 percent at $16.09/oz. Weakness in the dollar index coupled with strength in the gold prices is acting as a positive factor for prices. On the MCX, silver prices are trading higher by 2.12 percent at Rs.37215/kg. Comex Silver $/oz 0.1594 0.1594 0.1594 0.1594 1.70 MCX Silver – Mar’15 Rs/kg 36655 37256 36655 37170 1.99 Crude Oil Nymex – Feb ‘15 $/bbl 55.86 56.53 55.68 56.36 0.93 ICE -Brent Crude Oil $/bbl 60.19 60.70 59.99 60.56 0.53 LME markets are closed today on the eve of Boxing Day holiday. MCX copper prices rose by 0.3 percent owing to Rupee depreciation and currently trading at Rs.404.85/kg till 4:00 pm IST. MCX Crude Oil Jan’15 Rs/bbl 3590 3620 3574 3612 1.75 Copper LME - 3 Month $/tonne 6335.75 6354.50 6298.00 6312.25 -0.42 Rs/kg 404.60 406.35 404.60 405.45 0.31 $/tonne 2162.25 2177.00 2152.50 2159.75 -0.24 Rs/kg 137.35 137.80 137.35 137.40 0.07 $/tonne 1860 1870 1846 1858 -0.03 Rs/kg 118.10 118.80 118.10 118.35 0.21 $/tonne 15474 15625 15225 15293 -0.98 Rs/kg 965.90 969.40 961.30 965.20 0.43 $/tonne 1872.00 1883.00 1859.00 1866.75 -0.17 Rs/kg 117.40 117.75 117.20 117.35 0.09 MCX Gold – Feb’15 MCX Copper – Dec’14 Zinc LME - 3 Month Oil prices are trading higher today with Brent and WTI gaining by 0.41 and 0.65 percent respectively. On the supply side, data suggested an increasing glut as a U.S. report showed crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 7.3 million barrels last week to their highest December level on record. Analysts had expected a seasonal draw. MCX oil futures are trading higher by 2 percent at Rs.3617/bbl. Zinc MCX – Dec’14 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX – Dec’14 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX – Dec’14 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX – Dec’14 Commodities Evening Update Friday, December 26, 2014 International Commodities Outlook Volatility will remain high as traders will maximize opportunity to cash in the thin trade today as most of the traders will be at bay. Although the fundamentals of the commodity remain bearish, weakness in the dollar index will also act as a positive factor for prices. Major fundamentals in crude remain bearish with markets oversupplies from the OPEC as well as from the US. Bargain hunting at lower levels will act as a positive factor. In the Indian markets, base metals will trade lower today owing to persistent global tensions although sharp movement would be restricted as major global markets remain closed today on the eve of Boxing Day holiday and Rupee depreciation. th Technical Outlook for evening session – 26 Dec’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm) Commodity Gold Feb’15 Spot Gold Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz NCDEX Gold hedge Dec’15 Silver Mar’15 Spot Silver NCDEX Silver hedge Dec’14 Crude Oil Jan’15 Nymex Crude Oil Feb’15 Natural Gas Jan’14 LME Copper Copper Feb’15 Zinc Dec’14 Lead Dec’14 Aluminum Dec’14 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2 26540 1177 26750 1183 26885 1189.2 26980 1195 27100 1201 24200 24270 24356 24430 24520 Rs /kg 36600 36900 37239 37500 37850 $/oz 15.7 33350 3540 55.1 191 398 136 116.7 115.8 938 15.9 33500 3565 55.6 193 401 136.7 117.5 116.5 950 16.13 33680 3606 56.27 196.5 405.3 137.5 118.4 117.4 965.4 16.3 33900 3630 56.8 199 407 138.3 119 118 972 16.52 34100 3665 57.4 202 410 139.1 119.9 118.7 985 Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmbtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Nickel Dec’14 Support 2 Rs /kg Important Events for Today Indicator Household Spending y/y Tokyo Core CPI y/y Prelim Industrial Production m/m Retail Sales y/y Average Cash Earnings y/y German Bank Holiday Italian Bank Holiday Bank Holiday Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Euro Euro UK 5:00am 5:00am 5:20am 5:20am 7:00am All Day All Day All Day -2.5% 2.3% -0.6% 0.4% -1.5% - -3.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.5% - -4.0% 2.4% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% - Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium -