February 27, 2015 Global Markets Research Weekly Market Highlights Macroeconomics • Weekly Performance Macro US EU UK Japan Malaysia China Hong Kong Singapore Currency ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↑ ↑ Equity out extension took center stage this week, overshadowing economic releases ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ of the January meeting saying that ”many” expects rates to stay lower for longer ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ Fed President Yellen semi-annual testimony to the Congress and Greek’s bail- 10-y Govt Bond Yields ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ unitl the release of US CPI yesterday. Echoing the rather dovish FOMC minutes amid soft inflation, Fed Yellen reiterated this week that the Fed could be patient and will not be raising rates in the “next couple of meetings”. This further pushed back expectations of timing of the first Fed rate hike to later part of the year. • On the data front, releases were largely mixed and neutral this week pointing to an overall still soft growth backdrop while inflation saw deeper declines, all taking the hit from lower energy and food prices. Should oil prices continue to stabilize or recover, March/April could see a renewed uptick in inflation numbers. • The calendar is busy next week. Topping the radar will be a number of policy meetings most notably ECB for details on its asset purchase programme, as well as BOE and BNM on the same day (5-March). Next week also sees the release of a number of first tier economic indicators – 4Q GDP from the Eurozone and Australia; the highly watched nonfarm payroll and other job data, PMI manufacturing and services prints across the globe. Forex • Weekly MYR Performance MYR rallied strongly for 2 consecutive sessions ended yesterday to strengthen 1.1% WOW against USD at 3.5840 while closing higher against all G10s. USD softness was predominantly the main cause of MYR’s rebound though firmer MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW) crude oil prices did add to the recovery momentum. We expect only a slim chance -2.57 for MYR to extend its recovery to circa 3.5660 next week, with firm reliance on a EUR -1.47 softer USD and higher oil prices. Apart from these, there will unlikely be positive JPY -1.42 catalysts to spark a recovery given that markets will be eyeing BNM decision on OPR (no change in our view) and Malaysian exports data toward the end of next CHF MYR Appreciated -1.15 CNY -1.14 GBP -1.10 USD -1.08 SGD -1.05 -0.99 week to gauge the sentiment surrounding MYR. • USD overturned early losses to beat 7 G10s while the Dollar Index surged to 95.29, highest in a 11.5y, after slipping to lowest in a week following a noncommmitttal tone by Fed Chair Yellen on monetary policy. Instead, she signaled HKD that policy movement would unlikely come in 1H, dampening prospects of an earlier than expected hike. With that, we expect US data to take centre stage AUD going forward given that rate hike prospect hinges on economic performance afterall. Tonight’s US GDP and PCE will start the ball rolling followed by a slew of -3.00 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 vital US indicators including employment, income, spending and manufacturing data that would make or break USD next week. Currently, we expect USD to trade on a softer bias leading up to various data, particularly ADP and NFP, with scope for strong rallies on the back of encouraging figures. Indicative Yields Fixed Income • The UST curve flattened circa 11bps WOW wth the 2/10 spread narrowing to Indicative Yields @ 26 February 2015 138bps as a combo of Greek bailout concerns and Fed Yellen’s dovish address to the Congress spurred demand for UST. 10-year note yields fell below the 2.00% 5.50 level to a low of 1.97% before climbing back up to 2.03% as at yesterday’s close 5.00 as a rise in core inflation gauge reignited expectation for an earlier Fed rate hike. With Greek concerns and Yellen’s testimony out of the way, we expect markets to 4.50 keep their eyes on economic releases for further clues on the timing of the Fed rate normalization. We continue to expect UST to be well supported by widening 4.00 yield differential as other major central banks embark on fresh round of easing or 3.50 refrained from tightening. • At the local front, MYR govvies traded on a biddish note this week, as improving 3.00 1 2 MGS 3 Cagamas (Old) 4 5 6 Cagamas (new) 7 8 IRS 9 AAA 10 AA risk sentiments and stronger performance in the MYR increased the appeal of local govvies. Demand for local govvies also saw a lift from dovish comments from Fed Yellen, amplifying the search for higher yielding assets. WOW, benchmark 10-year MGS yields fell 3bps to 3.86% while the 3s settled 6bps lower at 3.42%. Amid expectation that BNM will keep OPR steady at 3.25% this year, Please see important disclosure at the end of the report vis-à-vis many other central banks and regional peers who have opted/ signaled to ease, demand for this week’s RM4.0bn GII 08/20 attracted good demand with a bid-cover of 3.01x. We maintain that the search for higher yields will keep demand for local govvies supported, more so if MYR bulls make a return. 1 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Contents 2 Macroeconomics Page 3 Forex Page 4 Trading Idea Page 5 FX Technicals Page 6 Fixed Income Page 7 Economic Calendar Page 8 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Review • Macroeconomics By the end of Yellen’s testimony before the Congress, stocks market continue to rally to record high following her statement of no interest rate hike in the next few FOMC meetings. Yellen reiterated that the next rate hike will be data dependent, hence no scheduled time table for the hike. 6-month Macro Outlook Economy US EU UK Japan Australia China Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Singapore ↔ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ Inflation ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ Interest Rate Currency ↔ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ Our stand is still on an interest rate hike in 2H2015, supported by evidence of recovery in the job market which would fuel domestic demand. Data wise, inflation in the US fell by 0.7% in Jan as oil prices turned south of USD 50 per barrel. The market interpreted cheap oil as catalyst for growth in household spending as consumers now have more savings in their pockets from the lower cost in fuel, sending dollar index to decade high. Other less optimistic data have less bearing relatively. • After prolonged negotiation between Greece and euro zone’s authority, an agreement has finally materialized for a four- month bailout extension for cash crunch Greece. Prior to this week, development in Greece took precedent as risk of Grexit loomed. In the coming week, all eyes will be on ECB’s very first QE implementation in March as details of the program will likely make headlines in the weeks ahead. Inflation continue to trend south in Jan, tumbling by 1.6% MOM in Jan (-0.1% in Dec) while services and manufacturing PMI outperformed previous prints. • In Japan, national CPI sustained a 2.4% YOY increase in Jan for the third consecutive month. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, inflation stood at 2.1% in the same month. Unemployment soared to 3.6% in Jan, a 0.2%-point increase from the print in Dec. Industrial production jumped more than expected by 4.0% MOM in Jan while decline in retail sales deepened to 1.3% (Dec: -0.4%). • In other parts of Asia, particularly Hong Kong and China, data was broadly upbeat due to spike in demand brought about by the festive season. Hong Kong shipments soared by 2.8% in Jan (+0.6% in Dec) while China’s Feb Manufacturing PMI expanded to 50.1 from 49.7 in Jan. On the other side of the coin, Hong Kong grew at a slower pace of 2.2% in 4Q (+2.7% in 3Q), underscoring weak external demand. Hong Kong government took a cue amid modest global outlook by increasing tax cuts and boosting proSME measures in budget 2015/16. The Week Ahead… • The calendar is busy next week. Topping the radar will be a number of policy meetings most notably ECB for details on its asset purchase programme, as well as BOE and BNM on the same day (5-March). We expect no change in rates and little change in the policy stance of BOE and BNM although there are growing noises for the latter to ease. RBA meeting will also be an interesting watch. • Next week also sees the release of a number of first tier economic indicators – 4Q GDP from the Eurozone and Australia; the highly watched nonfarm payroll and other job data, PMI manufacturing and services prints across the globe. Other crucial releases out of the US include Fed Beige Book to have better clues on regional performances, trade balance, and ADP employment while Eurozone ‘s releases include CPI, unemployment rate and retail sales. There are also a number of Australian data worth watching next week: new home sales, retail sales and trade balance. Back home, January exports are due and we are expecting a flat YOY print. 3 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Review and Outlook Forex • MYR: MYR rallied strongly for 2 consecutive sessions ended yesterday to strengthen 1.1% WOW against USD at 3.5840 while closing higher against all G10s. USD softness was predominantly the main cause of MYR’s rebound MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW) -2.57 EUR -1.47 JPY reliance on a softer USD and higher oil prices. Apart from these, there will unlikely be positive catalysts to spark a recovery given that markets will be -1.15 CNY eyeing BNM decision on OPR (no change in our view) and Malaysian exports -1.14 GBP -2.50 -2.00 data toward the end of next week to gauge the sentiment surrounding MYR. -1.10 USD • USD: USD overturned early losses to beat 7 G10s while the Dollar Index surged -1.08 SGD to 95.29, highest in a 11.5y, after slipping to lowest in a week following a noncommmitttal tone by Fed Chair Yellen on monetary policy. Instead, she signaled HKD -1.05 -0.99 -3.00 a slim chance for MYR to extend its recovery to circa 3.5660 next week, with firm CHF -1.42 MYR Appreciated though firmer crude oil prices did add to the recovery momentum. We expect only -1.50 AUD that policy movement would unlikely come in 1H, dampening prospects of an earlier than expected hike. With that, we expect US data to take centre stage -1.00 -0.50 0.00 going forward given that rate hike prospect hinges on economic performance afterall. Tonight’s US GDP and PCE will start the ball rolling followed by a slew of vital US indicators including employment, income, spending and manufacturing data that would make or break USD next week. Currently, we expect USD to Source: Bloomberg trade on a softer bias leading up to various data, particularly ADP and NFP, with scope for strong rallies on the back of encouraging figures. USD vs the G10s (% WOW) • EUR: EUR tumbled against 9 G10s and weakened 1.50% WOW to 1.1198 DKK -1.72 -1.50 against a surging USD. Gains from optimism over Greek government funding EUR USD NOK Depreciated -0.94 -0.39 USD Appreciated various hurdles that Greece would have to face in the coming months. CHF -0.34 -0.16 CAD -0.05 GBP Performance in Eurozone data next week would have little bearing on a slightly bearish EURUSD direction, and any gains would likely be dictated by USD weakness. There is scope for a rebound to 1.1260 on excessive losses but we 0.10 0.21 0.22 NZD SEK -1.50 -1.00 prevail net week ahead of ECB announcement on details of its QE coupled with JPY AUD -2.00 extension lifted EUR in early week but we believe that volatily would continue to -0.50 0.00 0.50 expect a slip to circa 1.1120 to be more likely. • GBP: GBP climbed on the back of rather hawkish comments from BOE official Martin Weale only to slip 0.05% WOW lower to 1.5407 against a surging USD. GBP advanced against 6 G10s. We are currently neutral on GBPUSD that could go either way next week. The pair will be guided by performance of UK and US data but we opine that USD strength/ weakness will likely be the ultimate Source: Bloomberg determinant in overall direction, unless jitters over Greece decided to rear its head again. Technically, upsides will likely stall approaching 1.55 mark while the pair looks well supported at 1.5340. USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW) • JPY: JPY remained on a weaker footing against its peers, sliding against 7 G10s -0.06 CNY IDR 0.01 SGD 0.01 HKD PHP USD Appreciated THB and weakened 0.39% WOW against a surging USD to 119.41. Risk appetite USD Depreciated 0.05 driven as fundamentals continue to impact the currency to the downside in the longer timeframe. We maintain the view of a rangebound trade 118.60 – 119.65. 0.53 0.87 • AUD: AUD gains were erased by a surging USD, closing 0.1% WOW lower at 0.95 INR 0.7800 though bids remained firm on rebound in commodities and equities as it 1.01 KRW beat 8 G10s. We currently expect AUDUSD to remain on a downside bias next 1.10 MYR 0.00 We remain neutral on USDJPY for next week, depending on which way US data goes. We caution that JPY rally, if any, would likely be short-term and sentiment- 0.26 TWD -0.50 showed slight revival in mid-week and that dampened JPY’s demand somewhat. 0.50 1.00 week as markets await vital US data and more so leading up to a deluge of 1.50 Australian data, including the important RBA cash rate decision. Tying in with technicals, AUDUSD appears overall bid with scope to retest 0.7882 above the crucial 0.7784 mark, below which 0.7700 could possibly be lost. Source: Bloomberg • SGD: SGD was mostly leading USD through the week before slumping yesterday to slip into a 0.01% WOW loss at 1.3581. Against its peers, SGD was up against 8 G10s. We expect SGD to stay soft next week in line with markets’ refrain from heavy positioning awaiting direction from US data. Firmer Singapore PMI would give SGD an early boost but in the event that USD extends its surge, we reckon that gains may not be be enough to cushion the downsides. 4 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Technical Analysis: Currency Current price 14-day RSI Support - Resistance EURUSD 1.1210 35 1.1220 GBPUSD 1.5424 56 1.5095 USDJPY 119.24 54 USDCNY 6.2587 USDSGD 1.3565 AUDUSD NZDUSD Moving Averages Call 30 Days 100 Days 200 Days 1.1490 1.1220 1.1490 1.1365 Negative 1.5573 1.5095 1.5573 1.5254 Positive 117.26 120.26 117.26 120.26 118.52 Neutral 63 6.2393 6.2640 6.2393 6.2640 6.2439 Positive 57 1.3464 1.3633 1.3464 1.3633 1.3511 Positive 0.7814 45 0.7722 0.7868 0.7722 0.7868 0.7853 Negative 0.7549 55 0.7300 0.7613 0.7300 0.7613 0.7459 Negative USDMYR 3.6015 51 3.5428 3.6551 3.5428 3.6551 3.6024 Positive EURMYR 4.0350 35 4.0258 4.1497 4.0258 4.1497 4.0984 Positive GBPMYR 5.5519 56 5.3742 5.6502 5.3742 5.6502 5.4922 Positive JPYMYR 3.0183 48 2.9711 3.0897 2.9711 3.0897 3.0396 Positive CHFMYR 3.7751 41 3.7840 3.9129 3.7840 3.9129 3.9222 Positive SGDMYR 2.6523 46 2.6252 2.6853 2.6252 2.6853 2.6669 Positive AUDMYR 2.8125 47 2.7493 2.8576 2.7493 2.8576 2.8328 Negative NZDMYR 2.7172 54 2.5963 2.7649 2.5963 2.7649 2.6908 Negative Trader’s Comment: It was a yo-yo session for the US during the week. USD started off better bid as markets awaited key testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen but took a turn in the opposite direction as the Fed is in no rush to raise rates according to Yellen’s semi annual testimony. But they will change their forward guidance by dropping the word ‘patient’ in the monetary statement paving the way for a rate hike. The EUR remain range bound since the beginning of the week but traded higher in midweek due to Yellen’s speech but the currency also benefitted from the European Commission’s acceptance of Greek reform proposals. After missing their deadline on Monday, the Greek government sent a detailed list of reforms that they plan to enact by June which the Eurogroup and the ECB approved the reform plan, locking in a 4 month bailout extension for Greece. Just when market thought will see some short squeeze in the EURUSD – the pair was traded below 1.1200 (from 1.1380) thanks to US data and Fed's Bullard noted on CNBC the FOMC should remove 'patient' from its March policy statement and clear the way for a rate hike. The AUD was performing very well and supported by the recovery in commodity prices during the early trading week but the influence of accommodating monetary policy continues to dominate financial markets. Market is pricing in another 25 bps cut from the RBA in next meeting which sent the AUDUSD lower as signs of slowing growth has increased. USDMYR returned from Chinese New Year break and gapped higher to 3.6465 on back of 1MDB worries and took a plunge to 3.5830 covering the gap on strong profit taking interests and funds taking out long USD positions. Range going forward will likely be wide and volatile. Suggest 3.55-3.65 near term as it continues to whipsaw amidst poor liquidity. 5 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights FX Technical Charts USDMYR EURMYR Resistance: 3.6551 Support: 3.5428 Resistance: 4.1497 Support: 4.0258 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg GBPMYR JPYMYR Resistance: 5.6502 Resistance: 3.0897 Support: 5.3742 Support: 2.9711 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg AUDMYR SGDMYR Resistance: 2.6853 Support: 2.6252 Resistance: 2.8576 Support: 2.7493 Source: Bloomberg 6 Source: Bloomberg Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Review & Outlook Fixed Income • The UST curve flattened circa 11bps WOW wth the 2/10 spread % Benchmark MGS Yields 3Y MGS 5Y MGS 10Y MGS 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 bps MGS Yield Spread Jan-15 Jul-14 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jan-08 2.2 3/10Y 200 3/5Y 150 fresh round of easing or refrained from tightening. 100 • At the local front, MYR govvies traded on a biddish note this week, as improving risk sentiments and stronger performance in the MYR 50 % Jan-15 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 0 -50 narrowing to 138bps as a combo of Greek bailout concerns and Fed Yellen’s dovish address to the Congress spurred demand for UST. In line with a dovish FOMC minutes released just last week, Fed Yellen reiterated that the Fed could be patient in raising interest rates and that guidance provided by the Fed is not a rate timetable, reinforcing believes that interst rates will be increase in 2H15. This supplied a bid to UST, pushing 10-year note yields below the 2.00% level to a low of 1.97% before climbing back up to 2.03% as at yesterday’s close as a rise in core inflation gauge reignited expectation for an earlier Fed rate hike. The front end 2-year note yields meanwhile added 3bps WOW to 0.65%. This week’s debt auctions were also well-received, with the $35bn 5-year notes attracted a bid-cover of 2.54x and the US$29bn 7year notes received a bid-cover of 2.37x. With Greek concerns and Yellen’s testimony out of the way, we expect markets to keep their eyes on economic releases for further clues on the timing of the Fed rate normalization. We continue to expect UST to be well supported by widening yield differential as other major central banks embark on increased the appeal of local govvies. Trading activities also gained traction as daily transaction volume picked up from below RM1.0bn done to above RM4.0bn as more investors returned to the market after the Lunar New Year holiday. Demand for local govvies also saw a lift from dovish comments from Fed Yellen, amplifying the search for higher yielding assets as the Fed signaled rates will remain as it is in the “next couple of meetings”. WOW, benchmark 10-year MGS yields fell 3bps to 3.86% while the 3s settled 6bps lower at 3.42%. Amid expectation that BNM will keep OPR steady at 3.25% this year, vis-à- MYR IRS Curve 6.0 3Y IRS 5.5 5Y IRS 5.0 7Y IRS vis many other central banks and regional peers who have opted/ signaled to ease, demand for this week’s RM4.0bn GII 08/20 attracted 3.5 good demand with a bid-cover of 3.01x with a high, average and low yields of 3.805%, 3.799%, and 3.787% respectively. We maintain that the search for higher yields will keep demand for local govvies 3.0 supported, more so if MYR bulls make a return. 4.5 4.0 2.5 Jan-15 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 2.0 • On the PDS front, we continue to see notable interests in GG and AAA-rated papers including GovCo, DanaInfra, PTPTN, PLUS, ADCB, and Aman Sukuk. Expect bargain hunting to continue following fresh leads seen in MYR govvies, amid more appealing credit spreads. Rating Actions Issuer PDS Description Nil Source: MARC, RAM 7 Fixed Income & Economic Research Rating/Outlook Action Weekly Market Highlights Economic Calendar Release Date Date Country 03/05/15 MA Reporting Period 5-Mar Survey Prior Revised 3.25% 3.25% -- Jan -- 2.70% -- 27-Feb -- $110.5B -- Industrial Production YoY Jan -- 7.40% -- Manufacturing Sales Value YoY Jan -- 2.10% -- Personal Income Jan 0.40% 0.30% -- Personal Spending Jan -0.10% -0.30% -- PCE Core MoM Jan 0.10% 0.00% -- Feb F -- 54.3 -- ISM Manufacturing Feb 53.3 53.5 -- 03/03/15 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Mar -- 47.5 -- 03/04/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 27-Feb -- -3.50% -- Feb 210K 213K -- Feb F 54.5 57 -- Feb 56.5 56.7 -- 03/06/15 Event BNM Overnight Policy Rate Exports YoY Foreign Reserves 03/12/15 03/02/15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI ADP Employment Change Markit US Services PMI ISM Non-Manf. Composite 03/05/15 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Initial Jobless Claims 28-Feb -- -- -- Factory Orders Jan -0.10% -3.40% -- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 245K 257K -- Unemployment Rate Feb 5.60% 5.70% -- Trade Balance Jan -$42.5B -$46.6B -- 03/07/15 Consumer Credit Jan $15.000B $14.755B -- 03/10/15 NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb -- 97.9 -- Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan -- 0.10% -- 03/11/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 6-Mar -- -- -- 03/12/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM Feb -- -0.80% -- 7-Mar -- -- -- 03/06/15 Initial Jobless Claims Business Inventories Jan -- 0.10% -- PPI Final Demand MoM Feb -- -0.80% -- U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar P -- -- -- Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb F -- 51.1 -- Unemployment Rate Jan -- 11.40% -- CPI Estimate YoY Feb -- -- -- Feb A -- 0.60% -- Jan -- -1.00% -- Feb F -- 53.9 -- Retail Sales MoM Jan -- 0.30% -- Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Feb -- 46.6 -- ECB Main Refinancing Rate 5-Mar -- 0.05% -- 03/06/15 GDP SA QoQ 4Q P -- 0.30% -- 03/09/15 Sentix Investor Confidence Mar -- 12.4 -- 03/13/15 03/02/15 EC CPI Core YoY 03/03/15 PPI MoM 03/04/15 Markit Eurozone Services PMI 03/05/15 03/12/15 Industrial Production SA MoM Jan -- 0.00% -- Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Feb 6.20% 6.80% -- Net Consumer Credit Jan -- 0.6B -- Mortgage Approvals Jan -- 60.3K -- Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Feb -- 53 -- 03/03/15 Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Feb -- 59.1 -- 03/04/15 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Feb -- 57.2 -- 03/05/15 BOE Asset Purchase Target Mar -- 375B -- Bank of England Bank Rate 5-Mar 0.50% 0.50% -- Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year Feb -- 8.50% -- Industrial Production MoM Jan -- -0.20% -- NIESR GDP Estimate Feb -- 0.70% -- RICS House Price Balance Feb -- 7% -- 03/02/15 03/05/15-03/10/15 03/11/15 03/12/15 8 UK Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn 03/02/15 JN Jan -- -£10154 -- Feb F -- 51.5 -- Feb -- 51.3 -- Jan P -- 105.6 -- Jan -- Â¥187.2B -- GDP SA QoQ 4Q F -- 0.60% -- Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Feb -- 50 -- Feb P -- 20.40% -- Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI 03/04/15 Markit Japan Services PMI 03/06/15 Leading Index CI 03/09/15 BoP Current Account Balance 03/10/15 Machine Tool Orders YoY 03/11/15 PPI YoY Feb -- 0.30% -- Machine Orders MoM Jan -- 8.30% -- Tertiary Industry Index MoM Jan -- -0.30% -- BSI Large All Industry QoQ 1Q -- 5 -- 03/12/15 03/13/15 03/02/15 CH BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ 1Q -- 8.1 -- Consumer Confidence Index Feb -- 39.1 -- Industrial Production MoM Jan F -- -- -- HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Feb F 50.1 50.1 --- 03/04/15 HSBC China Services PMI Feb -- 51.8 03/08/15 Exports YoY Feb -- -3.30% -- 03/10/15 CPI YoY Feb -- 0.80% -- PPI YoY Feb -- -4.30% -- Retail Sales YTD YoY Feb -- -- -- Industrial Production YTD YoY Feb -- -- -- Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Feb -- -- -- Retail Sales Value YoY Jan -- -3.90% -- 03/04/15 HSBC Hong Kong PMI Feb -- 49.4 -- 03/13/15 Industrial Production YoY 4Q -- -1.80% -- PPI YoY 4Q -- 1.30% --- 03/11/15 03/03/15 HK 03/02/15 VN HSBC Vietnam Manufacturing PMI Feb -- 51.5 03/03/15 SG Purchasing Managers Index Feb -- 49.9 -- Unemployment rate SA 4Q F -- 1.90% -- Retail Sales YoY Jan -- 2.60% -- AiG Perf of Mfg Index Feb -- 49 -- HIA New Home Sales MoM Jan -- -1.90% -- BoP Current Account Balance 4Q -- -12.5B -- Building Approvals MoM Jan -- -3.30% -- 3-Mar 2.25% 2.25% -- AiG Perf of Services Index Feb -- 49.9 -- GDP SA QoQ 4Q -- 0.30% -- Retail Sales MoM Jan -- 0.20% -- Trade Balance Jan -- -436M -- 03/06/15 AiG Perf of Construction Index Feb -- 45.9 -- 03/10/15 NAB Business Conditions Feb -- 2 -- NAB Business Confidence Feb -- 3 -- Westpac Consumer Conf Index Mar -- 100.7 -- Home Loans MoM Jan -- 2.70% -- 03/13/15 03/02/15 AU 03/03/15 RBA Cash Rate Target 03/04/15 03/05/15 03/11/15 03/12/15 03/10/15-03/13/15 NZ Consumer Inflation Expectation Mar -- 4.00% -- Employment Change Feb -- -12.2K -- Unemployment Rate Feb -- 6.40% -- REINZ House Price Index MoM Feb -- -1.00% -- 12-Mar 3.50% 3.50% -- Feb -- 50.9 -- 03/12/15 RBNZ Official Cash Rate 03/13/15 BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Source: Bloomberg 9 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Hong Leong Bank Berhad Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong 18, Jalan Perak 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 603-2773 0469 Fax: 603-2164 9305 Email: [email protected] DISCLAIMER This report is for information purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. 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