1. society
2. work
3. unemployment

March 6, 2015
Global Markets Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Macroeconomics
Weekly Performance
US
EU
UK
Japan
Malaysia
•
Macro
Currency
Equity
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Hong Kong
Singapore
interest rates. RBA defied expectations for a quarter-point cut, holding its cash
target rate steady at 2.25% but offered clear signals of a cut going forward.
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China and India unexpectedly cut interest rates by a further 25bps each. China
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China
The economic calendar this week was packed with central banks calls on
10-y Govt Bond
Yields
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deposit rate now stand at 2.5% and lending rate 5.35% while RBI’s repo rate
stands at 7.5% to spur growth. Premier Li targets GDP to grow by about 7.0% in
2015, the slowest in 25 years as the world’s second largest economy braced
itself for a structural shift toward a consumption based economy. Meanwhile,
there were no major surprises from BNM, ECB and BOE who decided to keep
interest rates unchanged.
•
Next week, China’s data dump will most likely steal the limelight amid a lighter
calendar among advanced economies which included retail sales, PPI and Uni
Michigan consumer confidence in the US. China exports will be reelased over
the weekend followed by the CPI, PPI, retail sales, industrial production and
fixed asset investment. As usual, we do not suggest reading too much into JanFeb numbers which are skewed by seasonal noises.
•
Malaysia’s industrial production is due Thursday but before that, we have BNM
Annual Report to digest. We expect little change in macro assessment and
projection given that the official growth forecast has just bee updated during the
tabling of the revised budget in Jan.
Weekly MYR Performance
Forex
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
-0.41
•
CHF
against USD, impacted by firm expectations of the Fed to soon raise interest rate
as well as sell-off ahead of BNM meeting in aversion of downside surprises after
0.28
EUR
recent dovish decisions from regional central banks. MYR performance next week
0.70
GBP
MYR
Appreciated
will depend on USD strength premising on US job figures tonight. Much less
0.85
SGD
downside forces on MYR from the macro front next week coupled with a steady
1.20
JPY
OPR would at least slowdown current weakness. We caution on possible
catalysts through the week in tandem with extended recovery in oil prices.
1.68
CNY
HKD
1.79
1.81
USD
-0.50
recovery to circa 3.6250 provided USD turns softer in the absence of positive
1.57
AUD
-1.00
MYR slumped through most of the week and ended 1.8% WOW weaker at 3.6487
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
•
USD ended the week higher against 8 G10s with the Dollar Index challenging
fresh 11.5y highs before closing at 96.37, up 1.1% WOW following firm
expectations that the Fed remains on track to raise interest rate amid a slew of
more optimistic data. Direction for early next week will be determined by tonight’s
2.00
US employment data, but we expect USD to remain biased towards upside,
supported by rate hike bets, though pace of gains may slow given a lack of major
catalysts. Nonetheless, we would not rule out a mild correction after recent highs
on prospective rebounds from EUR, GBP following recent sharp losses.
Indicative Yields
Fixed Income
•
Indicative Yields @ 6 March 2015
The UST curve steepened again, with the 2/10 spread widening by 9bps WOW to
148bps. Improved risk appetite and largely positive US economic data that
5.50
reinforced the Fed rate normalization path exerted a drag on UST, pushing yields
up 4-9bps for the 5- and 10-year notes. 10-year UST yields rebounded from a low
5.00
of 1.99% to 2.12% as at yesterday’s close while 2-year note yields dipped 1bp
4.50
WOW to 0.64%. We continue to expect UST to be well supported by widening
4.00
yield differential as the US will remain the forerunner in raising rates vis-à-vis
extended easing mode by other major central banks.
•
3.50
At the local front, MYR govvies took cue from weaker MYR and fell. Yields were
seen nudging higher gradually across the curve through the week amid lighter
volume before heavier trading interests resumed yesterday. 10-year MGS yields
3.00
1
2
MGS
3
Cagamas (Old)
4
5
6
Cagamas (new)
7
8
IRS
9
AAA
10
rose 5bps WOW to 3.91% while the 3-year note yields climbed 2bps to 3.44% as
AA
at yesterday’s close. The yield curve steepened a little to 47bps from 44bps a
week ago. Newly issued GII 08/20 attracted a lot of interests and so were other
Please see important disclosure at the end of the report
GII issuances amid bargain hunting. PBoC and RBI “surprised” rate cut this week
somewhat dented MYR performance and local bond performance. With BNM
striking a neutral policy tone, somewhat dampening speculation that BNM could
join other central banks in cutting rates, we could expect to see some bids back to
the local bond scene.
1
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Contents
2
Macroeconomics
Page 3
Forex
Page 4
Trading Idea
Page 5
FX Technicals
Page 6
Fixed Income
Page 7
Economic Calendar
Page 8
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review
Macroeconomics
•
6-month Macro Outlook
US
EU
UK
Japan
Australia
China
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
Economy
Inflation
Interest
Rate
Currency
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The economic calendar yesterday was packed with central banks calls on
interest rates. RBA defied expectations for a quarter-point cut, holding its
cash target rate steady at 2.25% but offered clear signals of a cut going
forward. Meanwhile, there were no major surprises from BNM, ECB and
BOE who decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Bank Negara
maintained OPR at 3.25% as expected, and we noted no change in policy
tone. We expect to see OPR at 3.25% for the rest of 2015 as the priority
remains on sustaining growth.
•
•
ECB held interest rate at 0.05% but it took center stage again as the
central bank announced more details on government bonds purchases
which would begin on March 9. Purchases will include bonds with
negative yields as long as interest rates are greater than ECB’s deposit
rate of -0.2%, potentially limiting bond yields from falling much below that
level. Counterpart BOE’s decision to maintain its record low interest rate
at 0.50% came as no surprise, even amid modest inflation forecast as the
central bank viewed lower commodity prices as catalyst to boost
consumption.
In other parts of the world, China unexpectedly cut interest rates last
weekend. Deposit rate now stand at 2.5% and lending rate 5.35%.
Premier Li targets GDP to grow by about 7.0% in 2015, the slowest in 25
years as the world’s second largest economy braced itself for a structural
shift toward a consumption based economy. Reserve Bank of India
followed suit to deliver another surprised inter-meeting cut. Repo rate
was lowered by 25bps to 7.5% to spur economic growth of Asia’s third
largest economy.
•
Data was largely neutal this week. The slew of PMI manufacturing and
servies readings were decent although it pointed to generally quicker
expansion in manufacturing but slower gains in services. In the US,
320,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended
Feb 28, the highest since May 2014 (prior week: 313,000). On the
contrary, ADP data remained supportive of non farm payroll to stay above
the 200,000 threshold, telltale of robust employment conditions. US GDP
for 4Q was less upbeat, growing by 2.2% compared to 2.6% in 3Q. Fed’s
beige book underscored continuous expansion in economic activities and
consumer spending in almost all districts, with the exception of Richmond.
Data out from the Eurozone were less downbeat. Retail sales in euro
area unexpectedly jumped by 1.1% in Jan (+0.4% in Dec), the fastest
growth since May 2013 whilejobless rate improved to 11.2%.
The Week Ahead…
•
Next week, China’s data dump will most likely steal the limelight amid a
lighter calendar among advanced economies which included retail sales,
PPI and Uni Michigan consumer confidence in the US. China exports will
be reelased over the weekend followed by the CPI, PPI, retail sales,
industrial production and fixed asset investment. As usual, we do not
suggest reading too much into Jan-Feb numbers which are skewed by
seasonal noises.
•
•
Other key economic indicator that could move markets include industrial
production from the Eurozone and the UK, as well as some key Japanese
data: 4Q GDP, BSI outlook, tertiary industry index and machine orders.
Malaysia’s industrial production is due Thursday but before that, we have
BNM Annual Report to digest. We expect little change in macro
assessment and projection given that the official growth forecast has just
bee updated during the tabling of the revised budget in Jan.
3
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review and Outlook
Forex
• MYR: MYR slumped through most of the week and ended 1.8% WOW weaker at
3.6487 against USD, impacted by firm expectations of the Fed to soon raise
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
-0.41
CHF
MYR
Depreciated
0.28
EUR
interest rate as well as sell-off ahead of BNM meeting in aversion of downside
0.70
GBP
MYR
Appreciated SGD
absence of positive catalysts in tandem with extended recovery in oil prices.
1.20
1.57
1.68
CNY
HKD
1.79
1.81
USD
0.00
0.50
tonight. Much less downside forces on MYR from the macro front next week
caution on possible recovery to circa 3.6250 provided USD turns softer in the
AUD
-0.50
performance next week will depend on USD strength premising on US job figures
coupled with a steady OPR would at least slowdown current weakness. We
0.85
JPY
-1.00
surprises after recent dovish decisions from regional central banks. MYR
1.00
1.50
2.00
• USD: USD ended the week higher against 8 G10s with the Dollar Index
challenging fresh 11.5y highs before closing at 96.37, up 1.1% WOW following
firm expectations that the Fed remains on track to raise interest rate amid a slew
of more optimistic data. Direction for early next week will be determined by
tonight’s US employment data, but we expect USD to remain biased towards
upside, supported by rate hike bets, though pace of gains may slow given a lack
of major catalysts. Nonetheless, we would not rule out a mild correction after
recent highs on prospective rebounds from EUR and GBP.
Source: Bloomberg
• EUR: EUR tumbled to new 11.5y low at 1.1030 against USD, falling 1.5% WOW
while closing lower against 9 G10s after underperforming for 6 consecutive days.
USD vs the G10s (% WOW)
Broad EUR remains weighed down ahead of ECB’s QE, which has a tall task of
CHF
reviving inflation from current negative levels amid an apparent paucity of
-2.18
-1.50
-1.39
-1.08
USD
Appreciated
EUR
USD
Depreciated
DKK
GBP
-0.83
-0.70
-0.60
1.10 performance again next week, while a rebound will likely be capped by 1.11.
NZD
• GBP: GBP slipped 1.08% WOW to more than 3 week low at 1.5240 against USD
JPY
and retreated against 7 G10s following slight downsides from UK datafront as
CAD
0.23
well as on renewed risk sentiment in the market. Early week trade is expectedly
SEK
-2.00
ECB’s plan coupled with prevailing policy divergence between the Fed and ECB
is expected to continue pressuring EURUSD, though we would not rule out a
technical rebound amid excessive losses. We believe there is scope for a sub-
NOK
-0.23 AUD
-3.00
government bonds available for purchases. This lack of confidence over the
-1.00
0.77
0.00
1.00
dictated by USD performance stemming from tonight’s US data while for the rest
of the week we expect GBP to wrestle for control given more data flow from the
UK. We currently remain slightly bearish on GBP in line with our expectation of a
firm USD, but we would not rule upside surpsises in UK data that would lift
GPBUSD higher. GBPUSD has scope to fall towards 1.5170 withrebounds
Source: Bloomberg
capped at 1.5275.
• JPY: JPY strengthened against 6 G10s, cushioned only by weaker European
USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW)
majors but weakened 0.6% WOW to 120.13 against a much firmer USD. Risk
-1.81
-1.22
-0.94
-0.67
appetite has been switching on and off lately, contributing to a more supported
IDR
JPY but we reckon that in the absence of major data next week, markets may
SGD
edge higher and thereby dampening demand for refuge. We also caution that
INR
-0.41
USD
Appreciated
MYR
TWD
-0.33
-0.13
-1.50
-1.00
more monetary easing, pushing JPY lower. Technically, we note potential failure
approaching firm resistance at 120.40, which could trigger a drop to circa 119.62.
KRW
THB
• AUD: AUD that was initially boosted by signs of improvement in Chinese
-0.12 CNY
manufacturing sector and RBA’s refrain from reducing cash target rate fell to
-0.12 PHP
USD strength to close 0.23% WOW lower at 0.7782. However, AUD managed to
-0.01 HKD
-2.00
major downside revision in Japan 4Q GDP may spark speculation of the need for
-0.50
0.00
strengthen agaisnt 7 G10s. AUD remains prone to downside bias in our view
given a firm USD, and we expect the pair to likely shift lower leading up to
Australian employment data. We note that sustained break below 0.7784 would
trigger a move back towards 0.77 mark and possibly even below.
Source: Bloomberg
• SGD: SGD continue to be subjugated by a firm USD, slipping for 4 out of 5
trading days to end 0.94% WOW weaker at 1.3710, its weakest level in more
than 4.5y. SGD ended lower against 7 G10s. However, we expect a better
performance from SGD on expectation of recovery in risk appetite amid a lack of
market moving events. Firmer Singapore data should add scope for SGD to
recover from recent sharp losses though gains, if any, will likely be mild given an
overall firm USD.
4
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Technical Analysis:
Currency
Current price
14-day RSI
Support - Resistance
EURUSD
1.1023
27
1.1033
GBPUSD
1.5242
43
1.5187
USDJPY
119.9700
58
USDCNY
6.2662
62
USDSGD
1.3700
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Moving Averages
Call
30 Days
100 Days
200 Days
1.1528
1.1033
1.1528
1.1303
NEGATIVE
1.5534
1.5187
1.5534
1.5290
NEGATIVE
118.21
120.41
118.2100
120.4100
118.8300
POSITIVE
6.2351
6.2767
6.2351
6.2767
6.2536
POSITIVE
67
1.3494
1.3702
1.3494
1.3702
1.3562
POSITIVE
0.7793
44
0.7723
0.7870
0.7723
0.7870
0.7805
NEGATIVE
0.7493
48
0.7383
0.7615
0.7383
0.7615
0.7450
NEGATIVE
USDMYR
3.6535
61
3.5576
3.6685
3.5576
3.6685
3.6094
POSITIVE
EURMYR
4.0274
36
4.0098
4.1492
4.0098
4.1492
4.0821
NEGATIVE
GBPMYR
5.5695
56
5.4414
5.6564
5.4414
5.6564
5.5154
NEUTRAL
JPYMYR
3.0458
54
2.9837
3.0730
2.9837
3.0730
3.0375
POSITIVE
CHFMYR
3.7550
39
3.7497
3.9030
3.7497
3.9030
3.8609
NEUTRAL
SGDMYR
2.6685
53
2.6309
2.6846
2.6309
2.6846
2.6621
POSITIVE
AUDMYR
2.8475
54
2.7602
2.8735
2.7602
2.8735
2.8188
POSITIVE
NZDMYR
2.7366
56
2.6359
2.7807
2.6359
2.7807
2.6893
NEUTRAL
Trader’s Comment:
Is that time of the month again where all eyes on U.S Non-Farm Payrolls data coming out later tonight.
It was a fairly muted week during Asia time zone where all the FX moves were done and dusted during London and
New York time. The Euro looks incredibly weak this morning after breaking down through the January low overnight.
The key catalyst is hard to pin down. But having said that sentiment is clearly against the Euro as the US economy
looks set to continue to lift and the Fed seems on track to tighten. The Euro Dollar once fell below the 1.10 level – the
lowest since September 2003. ECB held their benchmark interest rates unchanged in line with market expectation.
President Draghi said in the press later, the bond purchase will start from 9th March and will continue if the inflation rate
is still not satisfactory. The Euro once touched day highs of 1.11 during Draghi’s speech but quickly reversed all gains
and refreshed the day low. The 1.1000 level may provide some support in the short term and next support below is
September 2003’s low of 1.0760.
Two U.S employment data this week have been softer-than-expected. ADP’s national employment report showed a
gain of 212,000 private-sector jobs. Economists had expected 219,000 new jobs. Unemployment claims rose last week
by 7,000, adding to a total of 320,000 higher than the forecast 295,000. The NFP does not correlate with both figures,
but since they are employment indicators, it would not be a surprise if NFP underperforms versus expectations. 240k is
expected for NFP tonight.
On the Ringgit, its been a whipsaw week. Local traders were directionless and offshores as well. Corporate flows
dominated most of the MYR moves. We traded to a high of 3.6115 and a low of 3.6620 against the USD. Agent banks
were seen supporting the slide near the lows as market players pared risk going into BNM’s MPC meeting and NFP. As
expected, BNM held rates at 3.25% and no change in policy tone.
Have a great weekend.
5
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
FX Technical Charts
USDMYR
EURMYR
Resistance: 3.6685
Support: 3.5576
Resistance: 4.1492
Support: 4.0098
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
GBPMYR
JPYMYR
Resistance: 5.6564
Resistance: 3.0730
Support: 5.4414
Support: 2.9837
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
AUDMYR
SGDMYR
Resistance: 2.6846
Support: 2.6309
Resistance: 2.8735
Support: 2.7602
Source: Bloomberg
6
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review & Outlook
Fixed Income
%
Benchmark MGS Yields
3Y MGS
5Y MGS
10Y MGS
5.2
4.7
9bps for the 5- and 10-year notes. 10-year UST yields rebounded
from a low of 1.99% to 2.12% as at yesterday’s close while 2-year
note yields fell 1bp WOW to 0.64%. This week, report showed the
US economy moderated less than expected to 2.2% QOQ in 4Q
while both manufacturing and services remained expansionary
4.2
3.7
3.2
2.7
bps
MGS Yield Spread
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jan-08
2.2
3/10Y
200
3/5Y
150
100
50
%
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
0
-50
• The UST curve steepened again, with the 2/10 spread widening
by 9bps WOW to 148bps . Improved risk appetite and largely
positive US economic data that reinforced the Fed rate
normalization path exerted a drag on UST, pushing yields up 4-
MYR IRS Curve
6.0
3Y IRS
5.5
5Y IRS
5.0
7Y IRS
4.5
albeit at varying speed. ADP report also reported continuous job
gains that reinforced the case of more solid recovery in the US job
market. In line with this, surveys from the Fed Beige Book said
economic activities continued to expand in all but one districts,
and so was consumer spending. We continue to expect UST to be
well supported by widening yield differential as the US will remain
the forerunner in raising rates vis-à-vis extended easing mode by
other major central banks.
• At the local front, MYR govvies took cue from weaker MYR and
fell. Yields were seen nudging higher gradually across the curve
through the week amid lighter volume before heavier trading
interests resumed yesterday. 10-year MGS yields rose 5bps
WOW to 3.91% while the 3-year note yields climbed 2bps to
3.44% as at yesterday’s close. The yield curve steepened a little
to 47bps from 44bps a week ago. Newly issued GII 08/20
attracted a lot of interests and so were other GII issuances amid
bargain hunting. Trading in the MGS space paled in comparison
although movement in yields differed little from those of GII. PBoC
and RBI “surprised” rate cut this week somewhat dented MYR
performance and local bond performance. With BNM striking a
neutral policy tone, somewhat dampening speculation that BNM
could join other central banks in cutting rates, we could expect to
see some bids back to the local bond scene.
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
2.0
• On the PDS front, we continue to see rotational interests from the
govvies space given attractive credit spreads in corporate papers.
GG and AAA-rated papers continued to top interest with notable
trades in DanaInfra, BPMB, PLUS, and Caga. We also see some
trading interests in energy names. Expect bargain hunting to
continue amid more appealing credit spreads.
Rating Actions
Issuer
PDS Description
Rating/Outlook
Action
Sistem Penyuraian Trafik KL Barat
Sdn Bhd’s (SPRINT)
RM510 million Al Bai Bithaman Ajil Islamic Debt
Securities (BaIDS)
RM365 million Bank Guaranteed Serial Fixed Rate
Bonds (BG bonds)
A+ID/ Stable
AA-(bg) /Stable
Affirmed
Source: MARC, RAM
7
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Economic Calendar Release Date
Date
Country
03/12
MA
03/18
03/20
Reporting
Period
Survey
Prior
Revised
Industrial Production YoY
Jan
--
7.40%
--
Manufacturing Sales Value YoY
Jan
--
2.10%
--
CPI YoY
Feb
--
1.00%
--
Event
13-Mar
--
--
--
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Feb
99
97.9
--
Wholesale Inventories MoM
Jan
-0.20%
0.10%
--
03/11
MBA Mortgage Applications
6-Mar
--
0.10%
--
03/12
Retail Sales Advance MoM
Feb
0.50%
-0.80%
--
7-Mar
--
--
--
Feb
0.30%
-0.80%
--
U. of Mich. Sentiment
Mar P
96
95.4
--
Empire Manufacturing
Mar
--
7.78
--
Industrial Production MoM
Feb
--
0.20%
---
03/10
Foreign Reserves
US
Initial Jobless Claims
03/13
PPI Final Demand MoM
03/16
03/17
NAHB Housing Market Index
Mar
--
55
Housing Starts MoM
Feb
--
-2.00%
--
Building Permits MoM
Feb
--
-0.70%
0.00%
03/18
MBA Mortgage Applications
13-Mar
--
--
--
03/19
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)
18-Mar
0.25%
0.25%
---
Current Account Balance
Initial Jobless Claims
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
4Q
--
-$100.3B
14-Mar
--
--
--
Mar
--
5.2
--
Leading Index
Feb
--
0.20%
--
Sentix Investor Confidence
Mar
--
12.4
--
03/12
Industrial Production SA MoM
Jan
--
0.00%
--
03/17
ZEW Survey Expectations
Mar
--
52.7
--
Feb F
--
-0.30%
-0.60%
03/09
EU
CPI YoY
03/18
03/19
Trade Balance SA
Jan
--
23.3B
--
Construction Output MoM
Jan
--
-0.80%
--
ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin
ECB Current Account SA
Jan
--
17.8B
--
Industrial Production MoM
Jan
--
-0.20%
--
Manufacturing Production MoM
Jan
--
0.10%
--
NIESR GDP Estimate
Feb
--
0.70%
--
RICS House Price Balance
Feb
--
7%
--
Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn
Jan
--
-10154
--
03/13
Construction Output SA MoM
Jan
--
0.40%
--
03/16
Rightmove House Prices MoM
Mar
--
2.10%
--
03/18
Jobless Claims Change
Feb
--
-38.6K
--
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Jan
--
5.70%
--
03/11
UK
03/12
Bank of England Minutes
03/19-03/23
03/20
03/09
Mar
--
10
--
Feb
--
-18.9B
--
BoP Current Account Balance
Jan
¥182.6B
¥187.2B
--
GDP SA QoQ
4Q F
0.50%
0.60%
--
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
Feb
--
50
--
Feb P
--
20.40%
--
03/10
Machine Tool Orders YoY
03/11
PPI YoY
Feb
0.50%
0.30%
--
Machine Orders MoM
Jan
-4.20%
8.30%
--
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
Jan
0.40%
-0.30%
--
BSI Large All Industry QoQ
1Q
--
5
--
03/12
8
JP
CBI Trends Total Orders
Public Finances (PSNCR)
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
1Q
--
8.1
--
Consumer Confidence Index
Feb
--
39.1
--
03/13
Industrial Production MoM
Jan F
--
4.00%
--
03/17
Leading Index CI
Jan F
--
--
--
17-Mar
--
Â¥80T
--
BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
03/18
Nationwide Dept Sales YoY
Feb
--
-2.80%
--
Trade Balance
Feb
--
-¥1177.5B
-¥1179.1B
Feb
--
17
--
Feb F
--
--
--
Exports YoY
Machine Tool Orders YoY
03/19
All Industry Activity Index MoM
Jan
--
-0.30%
--
03/20
Supermarket Sales YoY
Feb
--
-1.70%
--
Exports YOY
Feb
13.8%
-3.3%
-3.2%
CPI YoY
Feb
1.00%
0.80%
--
PPI YoY
Feb
-4.40%
-4.30%
--
Retail Sales YTD YoY
Feb
11.60%
--
--
Industrial Production YTD YoY
Feb
7.70%
--
--
Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY
Feb
15.00%
--
--
Foreign Direct Investment YoY
Feb
--
29.40%
--
Industrial Production YoY
4Q
--
-1.80%
--
PPI YoY
4Q
--
1.30%
--
03/17
Unemployment Rate SA
Feb
--
3.30%
--
03/20
CPI Composite YoY
Feb
--
4.10%
--
Unemployment rate SA
4Q F
--
1.90%
--
Retail Sales YoY
Jan
--
2.60%
--
Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY
Feb
--
4.30%
--
NAB Business Conditions
Feb
--
2
--
NAB Business Confidence
Feb
--
3
--
Westpac Consumer Conf Index
Mar
--
100.7
--
Home Loans MoM
Jan
-1.50%
2.70%
--
Consumer Inflation Expectation
Mar
--
4.00%
--
Employment Change
Feb
11.0K
-12.2K
--
Unemployment Rate
Feb
6.40%
6.40%
--
03/08
CH
03/10
03/11
03/14-03/18
03/13
03/13
HK
SG
03/17
03/10
AU
03/11
03/12
03/17
RBA March Meeting Minutes
03/18
Westpac Leading Index MoM
Feb
--
0.10%
--
REINZ House Price Index MoM
Feb
--
-1.00%
--
REINZ House Sales YoY
Feb
--
2.60%
--
03/12
RBNZ Official Cash Rate
12-Mar
3.50%
3.50%
--
03/13
BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI
Feb
--
50.9
--
03/16
Performance Services Index
Feb
--
57.8
--
03/19
GDP SA QoQ
4Q
--
1.00%
--
03/20
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index
Mar
--
124
--
03/10-03/13
NZ
Source: Bloomberg
9
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets
Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong
18, Jalan Perak
50450 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: 603-2773 0469
Fax: 603-2164 9305
Email: [email protected]
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Fixed Income & Economic Research