Morning Market Commentary
Monday, March 09, 2015
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Illinois
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS (as of 7:30 AM)
Contract
Last
Change
Support
Resistance
CH15
384 1/4
5
376 1/4
391 1/4
CK15
390 1/2
4 1/2
384 1/4
SH15
982
2 3/4
975 1/2
SK15
987
2
981
WH15
491 1/4
5 1/2
WK15
490 1/2
8
Last
Change
OH15
294 1/2
- 3/4
Dollar I.
399
CTK15
62.77
-0.2
1037 1/4
SMH15
338.4
1.4
1039
BOH15
31.29
490
548
LCJ15
489 3/4
545
LHJ15
Contract
Last
Change
97.52
-0.095
Crude
49.44
-0.17
Gold
1174.2
10.1
0.15
RBOB
1.8739
-0.008
154.65
1.375
Ethanol
1.46
-0.052
66.125
-0.7
Dow J.
17867
6.00
BEANS
SPREADS
Full
Last
Carry
% Full
Carry
WHEAT
Last
Full
Carry
% Full
Carry
CORN
Last
Full
Carry
CH15:CK15
-6 1/2
-11.81
55.03%
SH15:SK15
-6
-14.34
41.84%
WH15:WK15
4
-18.24
n/a
CH15:CN15
-14 1/4
-23.62
60.32%
SK15:SN15
-5 1/4
-14.36
36.56%
WH15:WN15
- 3/4
-36.48
2.06%
CU15:CZ15
-9 1/4
-17.75
52.11%
SN15:SX15
26
-29.00
n/a
WU15:WZ15
-14 1/2
-27.29
53.13%
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% Full
Carry
Contract
TODAYS MARKET FACTORS
The corn, bean and wheat markets are finding modest strength as we begin a new week. The bears appear
to be taking money off the table as we approach Tuesday’s monthly Supply and Demand report. Also
thought to be supportive is talk the Brazilian trucker strike could be re-established if negotiations fail on
Tuesday.
The dollar index is marginally higher, testing Friday’s high but so far unable to trade into new highs. On
Friday, the dollar rallied sharply following the bullish monthly unemployment report that showed the rate
dropped from 5.7% to 5.5% in February. The news reinforces ideas that the Fed may begin raising interest
rates in 2015, possibly by early summer.
In its first estimates for the season, the European Commission forecasted the 2015/16 soft wheat crop at
141.5 MMT, down from 148.2 MMT produced in 2014/15. They also lowered their soft wheat exports to
27.1 MMT, down from 31 MMT in 2014/15. Rapeseed production was also lowered from 24.1 MMT in
2014/15 to 21.1 MMT.
Deliveries against March futures consisted of 58 corn contracts, 25 HRW contracts, 38 SRW contracts, 21
HRS wheat contracts 64 soybean oil contracts and 99 soybean contracts. There were no meal deliveries.
China February soybean imports were 4.26 MMT, down from January’s 6.88 MMT and slightly below the
4.81 MMT imported in February of last year.
Weekly export inspections are estimated at 30-36 mb corn, 16-25 mb soybeans and 15-19 mb wheat.
USDA attaché in China is estimating 2014/15 soy imports at 73.0 MMT and 77.5 MMT in 2015/16. China’s
domestic soy production is estimated to decline to 11.7 MMT next year due to policy constraints and
stagnating yields.
CONAB of Brazil will release updated production estimates tomorrow. February estimates had soybean
production estimated at 94.6 MMT. Corn production was estimated at 75.0 MMT.
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EARLY MARKET FEATURES
USDA WASDE report will be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM CST.
Grain markets bouncing on short-covering ahead of Tuesday’s report.
CONAB will release updated Brazilian production numbers tomorrow.
Rumors of a renewed trucker strike potential on Tuesday.
The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by MID-CO COMMODITIES, INC. or
GROWMARK, Inc. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for
specific trading in commodities herein named. This is not independent research and is provided as a service. As such, this is considered a solicitation.