MID-DAY COMMENTS
MID-DAY COMMENTS
www.advance-trading.com
October 9, 2014
HIGHLIGHTS: MACRO: Vegas, or rather Wall Street is on another rocky ride today; wiping out yesterday’s gains. Is that old nemesis again,
global growth prospects and more so after the EU’s central bank president says the region’s economic activity is slowing. And there is
concern about what will happen when the Fed’s stimulus program comes to an end—“problems long perceived . . .” (TR). The #’s: Dow, 261; S&P, -29.74; NAS, -67.77. Outside markets: well, some benefit at the pump, CLX is $1.50 cheaper; RBOB is off 3 ¾ cents; gold is
$18.60 to the plus side and the dollar has turned positive, up .290 at 85.865. WEATHER: Two systems are expected to provide rather
substantial quantities of rain to the southeast half of the central U.S. over the next five days, stopping harvesting and planting, and likely
causing field flooding in the Delta and southern Corn Belt. In South America, it will be another 7-10 days before the current hot-dry pattern
breaks for key areas of Center-West and Southeast Brazil which will continue to impede planting progress. T-storms are expected to limit
planting in fringe areas of northern Argentina into next week with little rain central and south. EUROPE MARKETS: X Milling wheat, down
10 ¼ to $5.42; X Feed wheat, off 4 to $3.87 ¾; X Corn, down 4 ¾ to $4.48; X Rapeseed, 6 lower to $11.24 ½
Corn
Harvest delays; decent export sales outweigh prospects for some more record production #’s tomorrow: CZ, 2
higher; CH, up 2; 8 cent trading range today
Spreads: CZ/CH: -13; + ¼; CZ/CK: -22, unch; CZ/CN: -29 ½, up ½; CH/CK: -9, ¼ weaker; CK/CN: -7 ¾, up ¼;
CN15/CU15: -7 ½, steady; CU/CZ: -9 ½, off ¼; CZ15/CH16: -9, ¼ lower
CIF: OCT is said to be 44/49, up 9-10 from yesterday; NOV is 57/62, 3 weaker. Oct Brazil corn is unchanged,
92/95; NOV is 92/100, steady. Ethanol: Cedar Rapids, -5 CZ, steady; Blair, -10 CZ, up 5; Decatur, steady at -20
CZ; Fort Dodge, 0 CZ, down 10; IN, -29 CZ to -10 CZ, steady. Hereford-weaker: Oct is unch, +120; Nov, unch +105
World FOB values—
Today
Change
Argentina
$167
+$1
Ukraine
$167
+$1
Ukraine Feed Wheat
$190
$0
Brazil (Cif)
$172
+$1
Bordeaux (France)
$180
+$1
US Gulf
$184
+$1
CIF US Milo
120 CZ
----
Week of 10/12 Barge Freight continues to head south: IL Riv, 800/850, off 25-50; Upper Miss, 700/750, 50
lower; Mid-Miss, 50 lower, 800/825; STL, 75 lower, 700/750; OH River, 50 lower, 800/825; Memphis-Cairo, 25-50
lower, 650/700
Export Sales—Corn at 30.9 mbu was just over the top of the trade’s 22-30 mbu range. Best buyers were
Unknown, Mexico and Canada. Milo was respectable, 2.6 versus 2.1 per week needed
USDA says if no resolution in the US/PRC DDGs situation, expect China’s imports to fall 3 MMT
CONAB: Brazil 14/15 corn crop pegged 76.6-78.9, versus 79.9 in 13/14. USDA at 75.0 for 14/15
Yesterday’s 901 K bl/day EIA ethanol production figure suggests grind since Sep 1, adjusted for days, totals 469
mbu against 449 LY. USDA is forecasting an unchanged annual total of 5.125 bbu for the corn portion
S AM Vessels—Brazil has 1 loading, down 1; total at 16, off 2 with volume at 40 mbu versus 65 LW
July 1-Oct 8 Ukraine corn exports are down 16% to 702 K MT
January futures on The Dalian closed 2 ¼ lower at $9.70 ¾ (rate: 1 CNY =$.16296)
Soybeans
Good bean sales (4-week average is a new high for the time frame); huge meal sales; weather delaying harvest;
time for the fall program to really ramp up: SX, up 5-6; SF, up 4-5
Spreads: SB: X/F: -7 ¾, up ¾; X/H: -16 ½, up ½; X/K: -24 ¾, up ¾; X/N: -31 ¾, up 1; H/K: -8 ½, unch; K/N, -6 ¾, up
½. SBM: V/Z, +$1.10, $21.10. Near-by board crush, up 4 ¼ to $1.56
OCT CIF: 119/124, down 6; FHX, 113/118, 4-7 lower. OCT Brazil: NA; Feb 2015, 82/88, bid down 1, offered up 1
World FOB values:
Today
Change
U.S. Gulf
$406
-$4
Brazil
$384 (Feb)
$0
Argentina
NA
Export Sales—Same with beans, 33.9 versus 18-33 expected; very little PRC, good #’s to the EU, SE Asia, MidEast, N Africa and Mexico/Colombia. Combined old/new SBM sales were HUGE at 349 K; Far East + Mexico,
Venezuela and Unknown. Oil, routine at 9,500 MT
CONAB says low world SB prices will trim acres, limit 14/15 Brazil crop to between 88.8-92.4 MMT, versus some
trade estimates as high as 98 (USDA: 94)
Disclaimer – This material is a solicitation to enter into a derivatives transaction. The information and data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Advance Trading Inc. ("Advance") does not
warrant their accuracy or completeness. Recommendations and opinions contained herein reflect the judgment of Advance as of the date hereof, are subject to change, and are based on certain assumptions, only some of which
are noted herein. Different assumptions could yield substantially different results. You are cautioned that there is no universally accepted method for analyzing financial instruments. Advance does not guarantee any results and
there is no guarantee as to the liquidity of the instruments involved in our analysis. Advance, its affiliates, and its and their officers, directors, and employees may sell or purchase, for their own account or for customers, positions
in futures, options or other instruments which may be similar or different from the positions referred to herein. As a matter of policy, Advance does not give tax, accounting, regulatory or legal advice to clients. Clients therefore
should consult their own advisors regarding the tax, accounting and legal implications of the recommended strategies before transactions are affected. Trading commodity futures and options involves significant risk and is not
appropriate for all investors. Information relating to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Reproduction in any form without Advance's express written consent is strictly forbidden.
MID-DAY COMMENTS
www.advance-trading.com
October 9, 2014
China attaché—maintains 12 MMT SB production forecast and imports at 72 (2<WASDE). Notes that due to
recovery in protein demand, some industry sources seen the import total exceeding 76 MMT
S AM Vessels: 7 bean ships loading in Brazil, down 1; total also down 1 to 21. Volume: 16 mbu TW, 21 LY
Dalian Jan SB edged up $.0150 to $20.14 ¾; Jan SBM gained $4.84+ to $445.43/ST; crush margins are
approximately are 25-30 cents higher at $.40+ for U.S beans
Wheat
Weak export sales; China producers making big sales to the reserve program; outlook for rain in the Plains: WZ,
down 15; KWZ, 13-14 lower; MWZ, 13-14 lower
Spreads: WZ/WH: -11 ¾. ¼ weaker; KWZ/KWH: -2 ½, off ¼; MWZ/MWH: -12 ¾, up 1
SRW CIF: V, 85/89, steady; HRW: V, 200 KWZ, steady
World FOB Values
FOB Rouen 10.5%
$212
+$2
Today
Change
FOB Russia 11.5%
$224
+$1
FOB India 11.5%
$284
$0
FOB Argentina 12%
$240
$0
FOB Baltic 12%
$236
+$2
US HRW FOB
$290
-$1
US SRW FOB
$252
$0
Export Sales—13.7; light as the trade was looking for 15-22. 11+ per week needed. Sales by class: HRW, 4.1;
HRS, 3.9; SRW, 3.3 and White, 2.4
China grain glut? Sinograin bought 23.4 MMT of producer wheat for the reserve program, nearly triple the
amount purchased last year
Ukraine continues to be an aggressive shipper: July 1-Oct 8 shipments up 30% at 5.5 MMT
Disclaimer – This material is a solicitation to enter into a derivatives transaction. The information and data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Advance Trading Inc. ("Advance") does not
warrant their accuracy or completeness. Recommendations and opinions contained herein reflect the judgment of Advance as of the date hereof, are subject to change, and are based on certain assumptions, only some of which
are noted herein. Different assumptions could yield substantially different results. You are cautioned that there is no universally accepted method for analyzing financial instruments. Advance does not guarantee any results and
there is no guarantee as to the liquidity of the instruments involved in our analysis. Advance, its affiliates, and its and their officers, directors, and employees may sell or purchase, for their own account or for customers, positions
in futures, options or other instruments which may be similar or different from the positions referred to herein. As a matter of policy, Advance does not give tax, accounting, regulatory or legal advice to clients. Clients therefore
should consult their own advisors regarding the tax, accounting and legal implications of the recommended strategies before transactions are affected. Trading commodity futures and options involves significant risk and is not
appropriate for all investors. Information relating to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Reproduction in any form without Advance's express written consent is strictly forbidden.
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