MID-DAY COMMENTS
MID-DAY COMMENTS
www.advance-trading.com
October 23, 2014
HIGHLIGHTS: MACRO: CAT, GM and 3M report favorable earnings and the Peoria, IL based firm raised its outlook despite evidence of a
global economic slow-down. Wall Street rejoices: DOW, +240; S&P, +26; NASDAQ, +71. Europe likely to close higher with DAX/CAC each
registering 1.3% gains heading in the close. $ Index, +.103; gold, $17.20 weaker in a risk-on trading day; energy futures are mostly higher.
WEATHER: Light showers for Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais with the rest of Brazil mostly dry, as was Argentina. Northern Brazil to
stay drier than normal the next 7-10. EUROPE MARKETS: X Milling wheat, 8 ¾ at $5.91 ¾; X Corn, up 5 ¾ to $4.69 ½; X Rapeseed,
$332/MT, off $.75; X Feed Wheat, up $.2 ¾, $3.26 ½
Corn
Beans higher; good export sales; wet conditions to return for harvest next week: CZ, up 4; CH, up 3-4
Spreads: CZ/CH: -14, unch; CZ/CK: -22 ¾, up ¼; CZ/CN: -30, +½; CH/CK: -8 ¾, ¼ firmer; CK/CN: -7 ¼, unch;
CN15/CU15: -7 ¼, ¼ lower; CU/CZ: -8 ¾, unch; CZ15/CH16: -8 ¼, up ½
CIF: LH Oct, 60/63, bid up 1; FH NOV is steady, 64/68; DEC, 77/82, offered up 2. Oct Brazil corn is unchanged,
92/95; NOV is 91/100, steady. Ethanol: Cedar Rapids, -10 CZ, steady; Blair, -10 CZ, steady; Decatur, -22 CZ,
steady; Fort Dodge, -28 CZ, steady; IN, -35 CZ to -27 CZ, down 1 on the high end. Hereford: Oct is steady at +90;
Nov, is unchanged, +93 CZ
World FOB values ($/MT)—
Today
Change
Argentina
$171
$0
Ukraine
$171
$0
Ukraine Feed Wheat
$205
$0
Brazil (Cif)
$177
+$1
Bordeaux (France)
$177
-$2
US Gulf
$182
-$3
CIF US Milo
130 CZ
----
Week of 10/26 Barge Freight: IL Riv, 900/925, offered down 25; Upper Miss, 800/850, unch; Mid-Miss,875/900,
25-50 lower; STL 25 lower, 750/800; OH River, 900/950, unch; Memphis-Cairo, 25-50 higher, 725/750
Export Sales—Corn was strong at 40.6, topping the trade’s 31-39 mbu range with nearly 23 mbu to Unknown;
very healthy milo # at 9.2 (China/Unknown)
Talk that Argentina may be considering addition export licenses beyond the ½ MMT announced yesterday
S AM Vessels—Brazil corn line-up total holds steady at 33; volume off 2 to 75 mbu. 8 vessels now loading, up 1
Kenya’s corn output could fall 30% from LY’s 2.8 MMT total due to an outbreak of Necrosis; domestic use at 3.75
MMT leaves a 1.8 MMT domestic supply shortfall, raising specter of additional imports
January Dalian futures closed up 1 ¼ cents at $9.66 ¼ (Rate: 1 CNY =$.16285)
Soybeans
Export sales blow by trade guesses; China buys more this morning; Brazil rains seem a bit disappointing; fewer
acres in Argentina: SX, up 16+; SF, up 16
Spreads: SB: X/F: -6 ¾, +1/4; X/H: -13 ½, up ¾; X/K: -20 ¾, up 1 ¼; X/N: -26, up 2 ¼; H/K: -7 ¼, up ½; K/N, -5 ¼, up
1. SBM: Z/F, +$1.80, $9.80. Near-by board crush, up 5 to $1.44
LH OCT CIF: 118/123, bid up 5, offered down 5; FHX, 3-4 lower, 116/120. Brazil Feb 2015, 102/110, steady
World FOB values ($/MT):
Today
Change
U.S. Gulf
$411
-$1
Brazil
$393 (Feb)
+$1
Argentina
$385 (Mar)
+$1
Ukraine
$390
$0
Export Sales: We seem to have bean demand—79.6 mbu with the trade thinking a rather minor 29-37 (China,
who else?); meal way light at 23 K (150-250 expected, some cancellations); oil on the low side, 10.6 K (10-50).
Talk of meal wash-outs were rampant yesterday (Mexico and Unknown did opt out of a combined 139 K MT in
today’s sales report). Approximate meal values have US cif at a $13 (Brazil) to $24 (Arg) premium to other
exporters
And, China bought 118 K 14/15 U.S. SB in a daily announcement this morning from the USDA
Oil World trims 3 MMT from Brazil production estimate—“critical” situation with regard to lack of moisture and
is now at 89.0, 5 below USDA. Cautious approach to Arg bean area, 19.6 million ha, 1.4 below USDA
S AM Vessels: ZERO bean vessels berthed in Brazil, 4 waiting, 8 expected. Former is lowest total in nearly a year.
FWIW, meal volume approaching 10-month low
Disclaimer – This material is a solicitation to enter into a derivatives transaction. The information and data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Advance Trading Inc. ("Advance") does not
warrant their accuracy or completeness. Recommendations and opinions contained herein reflect the judgment of Advance as of the date hereof, are subject to change, and are based on certain assumptions, only some of which
are noted herein. Different assumptions could yield substantially different results. You are cautioned that there is no universally accepted method for analyzing financial instruments. Advance does not guarantee any results and
there is no guarantee as to the liquidity of the instruments involved in our analysis. Advance, its affiliates, and its and their officers, directors, and employees may sell or purchase, for their own account or for customers, positions
in futures, options or other instruments which may be similar or different from the positions referred to herein. As a matter of policy, Advance does not give tax, accounting, regulatory or legal advice to clients. Clients therefore
should consult their own advisors regarding the tax, accounting and legal implications of the recommended strategies before transactions are affected. Trading commodity futures and options involves significant risk and is not
appropriate for all investors. Information relating to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Reproduction in any form without Advance's express written consent is strictly forbidden.
MID-DAY COMMENTS
www.advance-trading.com
October 23, 2014
Dalian Jan SB lost 11 ¼ cents to $19.5; Jan SBM fell $3.1940 to $452.50; crush margins little changed at $.28 per
bushel for spot values/U.S. beans
Wheat
Supposedly a “typical, post-spring wheat harvest seasonal rally”? Also, lack of producer hedging, or more buyers
than sellers, hedge-fund short covering: WZ, up 5-6; KWZ, up ¼, down ¼; 7-8; MWZ, up 2-3
Spreads: WZ/WH: -13 ¾, unch; KWZ/KWH: -1, imch; MWZ/MWH: -9 ¼, unch
SRW CIF: V, 95/102, unch; X, 95/102, steady; HRW: V, 175. Down 7; X, 175/UNQ, 1 lower
World FOB Values
FOB Rouen 10.5%
$213
-$3
Today
Change
FOB Russia 11.5%
$213
-$3
FOB India 11.5%
$284
$0
FOB Argentina 12%
$250
-$10
FOB Baltic 12%
$234
-$1
US HRW FOB
$292
-$1
US SRW FOB
$261
+$4
Export Sales—weak at only 11 mbu, below the low end of the trade’s 13-18 mbu range. Sales by class included
HRS, 3.5; HRW, 3.0; SRW, 2.9; White, 1.7 and Durum, 0
Kazakhstan estimates wheat harvest at 17 MMT (USDA, 12.5) with 10 MMT exportable surplus and has met with
Egyptian officials regarding the possibility of exports to that country
Wheat growers in southern Victoria, Australia experiencing an isolated drought--Bloomberg
Argentina commits to 400 K additional wheat export permits; market chatter says up to 2 MMT more possible
Disclaimer – This material is a solicitation to enter into a derivatives transaction. The information and data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Advance Trading Inc. ("Advance") does not
warrant their accuracy or completeness. Recommendations and opinions contained herein reflect the judgment of Advance as of the date hereof, are subject to change, and are based on certain assumptions, only some of which
are noted herein. Different assumptions could yield substantially different results. You are cautioned that there is no universally accepted method for analyzing financial instruments. Advance does not guarantee any results and
there is no guarantee as to the liquidity of the instruments involved in our analysis. Advance, its affiliates, and its and their officers, directors, and employees may sell or purchase, for their own account or for customers, positions
in futures, options or other instruments which may be similar or different from the positions referred to herein. As a matter of policy, Advance does not give tax, accounting, regulatory or legal advice to clients. Clients therefore
should consult their own advisors regarding the tax, accounting and legal implications of the recommended strategies before transactions are affected. Trading commodity futures and options involves significant risk and is not
appropriate for all investors. Information relating to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Reproduction in any form without Advance's express written consent is strictly forbidden.
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