Shriram Market Analysis
& Research Team
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
13 March 2015
ECONOMIC/GLOBAL NEWS

U.S. initial jobless claims dropped to 289,000 in the week ended March
7th. The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving
average also dipped to 302,250. Continuing claims edged down to
2.418 million in the week ended February 28th.

U.S. retail sales slid by 0.6% in February following a 0.8% decrease in
January. However, retail sales still edged down by 0.1% when
excluding the steep drop in auto sales.

U.S. import prices rose by 0.4% in February after plunging by a revised
3.1% in January. Export prices edged down by 0.1% in February
following a 1.9% decrease in January.

U.S. business inventories came in nearly unchanged for the second
consecutive month in January.

U.S. federal budget balance fell to a seasonally adjusted -192.0B, from
-18.0B in the preceding month.

EIA reported that supplies of natural gas declined by 198 billion cubic
feet for the week ended March 6.

U.K. visible trade deficit narrowed to GBP 8.4 billion in January. Exports
decreased GBP 1 billion and imports declined more substantially by
GBP 2.5 billion. The visible trade deficit of non-EU nations fell to GBP
1.7 billion from GBP 3.1 billion a month ago.

Eurozone industrial production fell 0.1% in January from December. On
a yearly basis, industrial production growth doubled to 1.2% from 0.6%
in December.

Germany's consumer price index grew 0.1% in February from last year.
Month-on-month, consumer prices advanced 0.9% in February. On a
yearly basis, the harmonized index of consumer prices fell 0.1% in
February. On a monthly basis, the harmonized index increased 1%.

French consumer prices dropped 0.3% on a yearly basis in February.
Consumer prices increased 0.7% month-on-month, reversing
January's 1% drop. The harmonized index of consumer prices declined
0.3% annually after falling 0.4% a month ago. Month-on-month, the
HICP gained 0.7%.

Japan's industrial production advanced 3.7% month-on-month in
January.

India's consumer price index rose 5.37% annually following a 5.19%
climb in January. Industrial production rose 2.6% annually in January.
Manufacturing output grew 3.3%.
Smart
.........Investing
Index
12-March-15 11-March-15 Pts. Ch.
Dow
Nifty
Sensex
USD/INR
Dollar Index
Euro/$1US
$1US/Yen
Pound/$1US
17895.22
8776.00
28930.41
62.542
99.41
1.0635
121.30
1.4883
17635.39
8699.95
28659.17
62.781
99.78
1.0547
121.45
1.4929
259.83
76.05
271.24
-0.24
-0.37
0.0088
-0.15
-0.0046
% Change
1.47
0.87
0.95
-0.38
-0.37
0.83
-0.12
-0.31
Market Update

U.S. stocks recorded the biggest gain in more than a month as
expectations for a rate hike were pushed back following
disappointing data on retail sales. The S&P 500 closed 25.71
points, or 1.3%, higher at 2,065.95. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average jumped 259.83 points, or 1.5%, to 17,895.22. The
Nasdaq Composite ended the day up 43.35 points, or 0.9%, at
4,893.29.

Power, Realty and Metal stocks led rally as Indian market
snapped three-day losing streak.
Currency Update

The dollar retreated against its rivals Thursday after the
Commerce Department said U.S. retail-sales fell for the thirdstraight month in February. The dollar changed hands at
121.35 yen Thursday afternoon after falling as low as ¥120.66
in the wake of the data. The buck traded at ¥121.47
Wednesday evening. The euro traded at $1.0632, compared
with $1.0547 Wednesday. The British pound, however,
surrendered its early gains against the dollar in afternoon
trade, falling to a 20-month low of $1.4850 compared with
$1.4910 Wednesday. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5% to
99.30.

Rupee dipped for the third straight session and eased by two
paise to close at fresh two-month low of 62.78 against
greenback on sustained demand for US dollar from importers.
At the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market, the Indian
rupee resumed lower at 62.83 a dollar from yesterday's close
of 62.76. It moved in a range of 62.69 and 62.87 before ending
at 62.78, showing a loss of two paise or 0.03 per cent.
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
13 March 2015
TECHNICAL REPORT
PRECIOUS METALS
Open Interest
Closing
Bullion
Gold April MCX
Gold April Comex
Silver May MCX
Silver May Comex
Open
25660
1154
35173
15.470
Bullion
( Technical )
Gold April MCX
Gold April Comex
Silver May MCX
Silver May Comex
High
25860
1166
35539
15.685
Low
25562
1148
35080
15.385
12-Mar-15
25655
1152
35325
15.516
11-Mar-15
25685
1151
35049
15.365
% Ch
-0.12
0.11
0.79
0.98
12-Mar-15
10140
217295
13410
109835
12-Mar-2015
% Ch
3.43
-3.90
-8.51
2.05
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
25655
1152
35325
15.516
25227
1126
34631
15.072
25394
1137
34856
15.229
25525
1144
35090
15.372
25692
1155
35315
15.529
25823
1163
35549
15.672
25990
1173
35774
15.829
26121
1181
36008
15.972
Holdings In Tonnes As On
Name of the ETF
11-Mar-15
9804
226123
14658
107626
12-Mar-2015
Ratio
%Ch
11-Mar-2015
Ratio
Close
Close
SPDR Gold ETF
750.95
753.04
-0.28
Gold v/s Silver
1151.90
15.516
74.24
iShares Silver Trust
10181.17
10181.17
0.00
Gold v/s Crude Oil
1151.90
47.05
24.48
BASE METALS
LME Inventories (In Tonnes)
Base Metals
12-Mar-2015
Aluminum
Copper
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
Base Metals
( Technical )
Aluminium ( March )
Copper ( April )
Nickel ( March )
Lead ( March )
Zinc ( March )
11-Mar-2015
3919650
330750
430854
212600
540200
3917625
330425
432480
212500
542850
Change
% Change
2025
325
-1626
100
-2650
0.05
0.10
-0.38
0.05
-0.49
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
109.65
371.20
877.00
114.20
125.65
107.80
356.80
853.50
112.00
123.10
108.50
360.50
859.90
112.50
124.00
109.10
365.90
868.50
113.40
124.80
109.80
369.60
874.90
113.90
125.70
110.40
375.00
883.50
114.70
126.50
111.10
378.70
889.90
115.20
127.40
111.70
384.10
898.50
116.10
128.20
ENERGY
Open Interest
Closing
ENERGY
Crude Oil March MCX
Crude April Nymex
Natural Gas March MCX
Natural Gas April Henry Hub
ENERGY
( Technical )
Crude Oil March MCX
Crude April Nymex
Natural Gas March MCX
Natural Gas April Henry Hub
Open
3021
48.44
177.90
2.828
High
3059
48.76
179.90
2.864
Low
2956
46.86
171.50
2.725
12-Mar-15
2982
47.05
172.00
2.734
11-Mar-15
3000
48.17
178.60
2.824
% Ch
-0.60
-2.33
-3.70
-3.19
12-Mar-15
38461
181658
7103
157612
11-Mar-15
36741
215728
7724
167060
% Ch
4.68
-15.79
-8.04
-5.66
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
2982
47.05
172.00
2.734
2836
44.45
160.60
2.546
2896
45.66
166.10
2.635
2939
46.35
169.00
2.685
2999
47.56
174.50
2.774
3042
48.25
177.40
2.824
3102
49.46
182.90
2.913
3145
50.15
185.80
2.963
OUTLOOK
Precious Metal: Likely to remain range-bound with positive bias. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Base Metal: Likely to remain range-bound. Trade tracking support and resistances.
Energy: Likely to remain range-bound. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
13 March 2015
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Time
10:00:00 AM
Tentative
Tentative
Tentative
12:30:00 PM
12:30:00 PM
5:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
7:30:00 PM
7:30:00 PM
7:30:00 PM
7:30:00 PM
7:30:00 PM
Country
Japan
India
India
India
Germany
Germany
India
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
Friday March 13, 2015
Event
Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
Exports (USD) (Feb)
Imports (USD) (Feb)
Trade Balance (Feb)
German WPI (YoY) (Feb)
German WPI (MoM) (Feb)
FX Reserves, USD
Core PPI (MoM) (Feb)
Core PPI (YoY) (Feb)
PPI (MoM) (Feb)
PPI (YoY) (Feb)
Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar)
Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar)
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
Michigan Current Conditions (Mar)
Michigan Inflation Expectations (Mar)
Actual
3.7%
Forecast Previous
4.0%
4.0%
23.88B
32.21B
-10.00B
-8.32B
-2.6%
-0.2%
-0.4%
338.08B
0.1%
-0.1%
1.6%
1.6%
0.3%
-0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
2.7%
87.5
88.0
95.5
95.4
105.7
106.9
2.8%
D I S C L A I M E R
This document has been prepared by ICFL (100% Subsidiary Company of Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd) and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be
reported or copied or made available to others. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy and sell any
Commodity or as an official confirmation of any transaction. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This document is prepared for assistance only and is
not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. ICFL (100%
Subsidiary Company of Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd) Recommendation Service is a general recommendation service and is not to be construed as an individual investor specific Portfolio
Management and Advisory Service.
The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the Commodities to in this document and
should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
ICFL (100% Subsidiary Company of Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd) shall not be responsible for any loss or liability incurred to the user as a consequence of his or any other person on his behalf taking
any investment decisions based on the information, recommendations, research reports, analysis, quotes, etc. provided on the web site.
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.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]