Shriram Market Analysis
& Research Team
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
09 March 2015
ECONOMIC/GLOBAL NEWS

China's trade surplus came in at $60.62 billion in February. Exports
grew 48.3% year-over-year in February. Imports plunged 20.5%. In the
first two months of the year, the trade surplus was at $120.7 billion.

U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $41.8 billion in January from a revised
$45.6 billion in December. The narrower deficit was partly due to the
drop in the value of imports, which tumbled by 3.9% to $231.2 billion in
January. However, the report also showed a notable pullback in the
value of exports, which slid 2.9% to $189.4 billion in January.

U.S. non-farm payroll employment jumped by 295,000 jobs in
February. Unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in February from 5.7% in
January. Overall, private payrolls increased 288,000 last month, with
construction employment rising 29,000. While the labor force
participation rate, fell one-tenth of a%age point to 62.8% last month.

U.K. inflation expectations lowest since late 2001, median
expectations of inflation over the coming year were 1.9%, compared
with 2.5% in November

Eurozone gross domestic product grew 0.3% sequentially, slightly
faster than the third quarter's 0.2% expansion. Year-on-year, the
economy expanded 0.9%, which was marginally above the 0.8%
growth posted in the third quarter.

Germany's industrial production grew 0.6% in January from
December. The monthly rise in January was 0.5%.

French trade gap widened to EUR 3.7 billion in January from EUR 3.3
billion in December and November. Exports fell 2.5% month-overmonth in January. Imports decreased 1.3% following the 2% growth in
the previous month.

Japan's gross domestic product expanded just 1.5% on year in the
fourth quarter of 2014. On an annualized quarterly basis, GDP was
revised down to 0.4%. The GDP deflator was moved up to 2.4% on
year.

Japan had a current account surplus of 61.4 billion yen in January. The
adjusted current account surplus was 1,058.1 billion yen.
Smart
.........Investing
Index
06-March-15 05-March-15 Pts. Ch.
Dow
Nifty
Sensex
USD/INR
Dollar Index
Euro/$1US
$1US/Yen
Pound/$1US
17856.78
CLOSED
CLOSED
62.460
97.60
1.0844
120.84
1.5037
18135.72
8937.75
29448.95
62.381
96.39
1.1031
120.15
1.5241
-278.94
0.08
1.21
-0.0187
0.69
-0.0204
% Change
-1.54
0.13
1.26
-1.70
0.57
-1.34
Market Update
 U.S. stocks sold off on Friday and recorded a second straight
week of losses. The benchmark S&P 500 suffered its steepest
decline in two months. The S&P 500 fell 29.78 points, or 1.4%, to
2,071.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 278.94
points, or 1.5%, to 18,056.78. The Nasdaq Composite ended the
day down 55.44 points, or 0.3%, at 4,927.47.
 Indian market closed on 06.03.2015 on account of "HOLI".
Currency Update
 The ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose for the second- straight week
Friday, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics's February nonfarm
payrolls number exceeded expectations and the euro dropped to
its lowest level versus the U.S. unit in more than 11 years. The
ICE U.S. Dollar Index finished the day up 1.3% to 97.63, its
highest level in ,more than 11 1/2 years. The euro was at $1.0844
in recent trade after falling to its lowest level since 2003 at
$1.0839. The dollar retreated slightly after hitting a four-month
high of 121.27 yen, nearing its highest level against the Japanese
currency since the summer of 2007, compared with ¥120.14 late
Thursday in New York. The pound traded at $1.5037 after the
report, its lowest level in about a month. It had traded at $1.5238
Thursday.
 Indian currency market closed on 06.03.2015 on account of
"HOLI".
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
09 March 2015
PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices corrected trades for the second straight day in a row. Gold
April expiry ended the day at Rs 26012 per 10 grams against levels of Rs
26484 per 10 grams. May Silver closed at Rs. 35972 per 1 kg, down Rs.
573.

Gold futures dropped 2.7%, with a rally in the U.S. dollar following a
strong February U.S. jobs report fueling a decline in the metal's prices to
their lowest settlement since mid-November. Gold for April delivery on
Comex dropped $31.90, or 2.67%, to settle at $1,164.30 an ounce. May
silver lost 35.1 cents, or 2.17%, to settle at $15.807 an ounce.
Open Interest
Closing
Bullion
Gold April MCX
Gold April Comex
Silver May MCX
Silver May Comex
Open
26460
1198
36460
16.185
Bullion
( Technical )
Gold April MCX
Gold April Comex
Silver May MCX
Silver May Comex
High
26484
1200
36460
16.235
Low
25982
1163
35911
15.745
06-Mar-15
26012
1164
35972
15.807
05-Mar-15
26484
1196
36545
16.158
% Ch
-1.78
-2.67
-1.57
-2.17
06-Mar-15
10007
251003
12368
103170
% Ch
13.75
-0.69
15.57
0.29
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
26012
1164
35972
15.807
25333
1114
35220
15.133
25657
1139
35565
15.439
25835
1151
35769
15.623
26159
1176
36114
15.929
26337
1189
36318
16.113
26661
1213
36663
16.419
26839
1226
36867
16.603
Holdings In Tonnes As On
Name of the ETF
05-Mar-15
8797
252739
10702
102873
06-Mar-2015
05-Mar-2015
%Ch
06-Mar-2015
Ratio
Close
Ratio
Close
SPDR Gold ETF
756.32
760.80
-0.59
Gold v/s Silver
1164.30
15.807
73.66
iShares Silver Trust
10181.17
10181.17
0.00
Gold v/s Crude Oil
1164.30
49.61
23.47
OUTLOOK OF PRECIOUS METALS
Likely to remain range-bound with negaitive bias. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
09 March 2015
BASE METALS

Copper prices swung between gains and losses, after China lowered
its 2015 gross domestic product growth target to the lowest level in 11
years. Copper is sensitive to the economic growth outlook because of
its widespread uses across industries. PBoC adopted the measure to
reduce the rates by 25 basis points. A shift within the PBOC resulted in
a 25 bps rate cut on Saturday. The drastic action is the third measure
taken by the bank to increase liquidity and intensify economic activity.

For the second consecutive day the prices of MCX Copper April expiry
closed lower on 6 March 2015. The prices closed the last session
trades at Rs 366 per kg, down 0.88% for the second straight day in a
row.
LME Inventories (In Tonnes)
Base Metals
Aluminum
Copper
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
06-Mar-2015
05-Mar-2015
3911775
323050
431952
213950
547075
3917800
318375
431442
213875
551800
Base Metals
( Closing )
21-Mar-12
Base Metals
( Technical )
Aluminium ( March )
Copper ( April )
Nickel ( March )
Lead ( March )
Zinc ( March )
% Change
-6025
4675
510
75
-4725
-0.15
1.47
0.12
0.04
-0.86
20-Mar-12
05-Mar-15
06-Mar-15
LME Aluminium ( Spot )
LME Aluminum (3 Month Forward )
MCX Aluminium ( March )
LME Copper ( Spot )
LME Copper ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Copper ( April )
LME Nickel ( Spot )
LME Nickel ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Nickel ( March )
LME Lead ( Spot )
LME Lead ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Lead ( March )
LME Zinc ( Spot )
LME Zinc ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Zinc ( March )
Change
1784.00
1795.00
111.95
5826.00
5804.00
366.00
14075.00
14125.00
904.20
1804.00
1807.00
114.55
1994.00
2015.00
126.70
1790.00
1805.50
112.45
5855.50
5829.00
369.25
14050.00
14110.00
885.50
1783.00
1787.00
113.10
2012.00
2032.00
126.00
%Change
%Change
-0.34
-0.58
-0.44
-0.50
-0.43
-0.88
0.18
0.11
2.11
1.18
1.12
1.28
-0.89
-0.84
0.56
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
111.95
366.00
904.20
114.55
126.70
110.00
360.70
866.30
111.00
124.20
110.80
363.10
874.50
111.80
124.80
111.40
364.50
889.40
113.20
125.80
112.20
366.90
897.60
114.00
126.40
112.70
368.30
912.50
115.30
127.40
113.50
370.70
920.70
116.10
128.00
114.10
372.10
935.60
117.50
129.00
OUTLOOK OF BASE METALS
Likely to remain range-bound with negative bias. Trade tracking support and resistances.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
09 March 2015
ENERGY

The prices of Crude Oil maintained a range of Rs 3100 and 3300 per
barrel. Crude Oil March expiry settled at Rs 3138 per barrel on 6 March
2015. The moves in Crude Oil have been in a jigsaw. March natural Gas
closed at Rs. 178.70 per British thermal unit, up 0.73%.

Crude-oil futures fell more than 2% and tallied their third straight weekly
loss as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report sent the dollar sharply
higher. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for delivery in April
settled at $49.61 a barrel, down $1.15, or 2.27%. April natural gas
settled at $2.839 per million British thermal units, nearly flat for the
session.
Open Interest
Closing
ENERGY
Crude Oil March MCX
Crude April Nymex
Natural Gas March MCX
Natural Gas April Henry Hub
ENERGY
( Technical )
Crude Oil March MCX
Crude April Nymex
Natural Gas March MCX
Natural Gas April Henry Hub
Open
3209
50.89
176.20
2.828
High
3209
51.22
180.90
2.870
Low
3121
48.88
175.50
2.783
06-Mar-15
3138
49.61
178.70
2.839
05-Mar-15
3212
50.76
177.40
2.841
% Ch
-2.30
-2.27
0.73
-0.07
06-Mar-15
25493
354820
8138
219242
05-Mar-15
29056
339273
6968
211218
% Ch
-12.26
4.58
16.79
3.80
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
3138
49.61
178.70
2.839
3015
46.25
170.40
2.704
3068
47.56
173.00
2.744
3103
48.59
175.80
2.791
3156
49.90
178.40
2.831
3191
50.93
181.20
2.878
3244
52.24
183.80
2.918
3279
53.27
186.60
2.965
OUTLOOK OF ENERGY
Likely to remain range-bound with negative bias. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
09 March 2015
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Time
5:20:00 AM
5:20:00 AM
5:20:00 AM
5:20:00 AM
5:20:00 AM
12:30:00 PM
12:30:00 PM
12:30:00 PM
3:00:00 PM
7:30:00 PM
Country
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Germany
Germany
Germany
Eurozone
U.S.
Monday March 09, 2015
Event
Adjusted Current Account
Current Account n.s.a. (Jan)
GDP (YoY) (Q4)
GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
GDP Price Index (YoY)
German Exports (MoM) (Jan)
German Imports (MoM) (Jan)
German Trade Balance (Jan)
Sentix Investor Confidence (Mar)
CB Employment Trends Index (Mar)
Actual
1.06T
0.061T
1.5%
0.4%
2.4%
Forecast Previous
1.16T
0.85T
0.288T
0.187T
2.2%
2.2%
0.6%
0.6%
2.3%
2.3%
-1.5%
3.4%
0.5%
-0.8%
21.0B
21.8B
15.0
12.4
127.90
D I S C L A I M E R
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reported or copied or made available to others. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy and sell any
Commodity or as an official confirmation of any transaction. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This document is prepared for assistance only and is
not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. ICFL (100%
Subsidiary Company of Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd) Recommendation Service is a general recommendation service and is not to be construed as an individual investor specific Portfolio
Management and Advisory Service.
The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the Commodities to in this document and
should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
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