1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. natural gas

Shriram Market Analysis
& Research Team
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
12 March 2015
ECONOMIC/GLOBAL NEWS

U.K. industrial output slid 0.1% month-on-month in January, following a
0.2% drop in December. Similarly, manufacturing output declined
0.5%. On a yearly basis, industrial output increased 1.3% in January.
There were increases in two of the four main sectors, with
manufacturing output being the largest contributor, increasing by
1.9%.

The house price balance for a home in the United Kingdom was up
14% in February.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Wednesday
the stimulus measures adopted by the bank since January will stabilize
inflation in line with the target and that they are working their way into
the real economy.

France's current account deficit narrowed in January to a seasonally
adjusted 300 million euros ($323 million)from EUR2 billion in
December of last year, the Bank of France reported.

Australian consumers' expectations of future inflation rose to an 18month high in April. The Melbourne Institute, a research center, said
consumers expected prices to rise 4.1% over the next 12 months,
compared with 3.2% forecast in March.

The unemployment rate in Australia was a seasonally adjusted 6.3
percent in February. The Australia economy added 15,600 jobs in
February to 11,652,400.
Smart
.........Investing
Index
11-March-15 10-March-15 Pts. Ch.
Dow
Nifty
Sensex
USD/INR
Dollar Index
Euro/$1US
$1US/Yen
Pound/$1US
17635.39
8699.95
28659.17
62.781
99.78
1.0547
121.45
1.4929
17662.94
8712.05
28709.87
62.720
98.61
1.0698
121.14
1.5070
-27.55
-12.10
-50.70
0.06
1.17
-0.0151
0.31
-0.0141
% Change
-0.16
-0.14
-0.18
0.10
1.19
-1.41
0.26
-0.94
Market Update

U.S. stocks closed slightly lower Wednesday, building a little on
losses from the previous day, when a dollar surge and growing
expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve helped
trigger the Dow's biggest point drop in five months. The S&P
500 finished lower by 3.92 points, or 0.2%, at 2,040.24. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down by 27.55 points, or
0.2%, to 17,635.39, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 9.85
points, or 0.2%, to end at 4,849.94.

D-Street witnessed a volatile session of trade and closed lower.
Hindalco leading the decline following a scrutiny over the coal
block allocations.
Currency Update

The ICE U.S. dollar index rose 1% to 99.68. The index is within
striking distance of 100.00, a level it hasn't traded above since
April 2003. The euro's depreciation against the dollar
accelerated Wednesday, pushing it closer to parity, as
expectations for a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve drew
more investors to the already-crowded dollar trade. The euro
traded as low as $1.0547, a nearly 12-year low, compared with
$1.0700 late Tuesday in New York. Against the yen, the dollar
traded at ¥121.43, compared with ¥121.13 on Tuesday.
Disappointing U.K. manufacturing data pushed the pound to
$1.4928, its lowest level since mid-2013.

Rupee dipped for the third straight session and eased by two
paise to close at fresh two-month low of 62.78 against
greenback on sustained demand for US dollar from importers.
At the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market, the Indian
rupee resumed lower at 62.83 a dollar from yesterday's close
of 62.76. It moved in a range of 62.69 and 62.87 before ending
at 62.78, showing a loss of two paise or 0.03 per cent.
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
12 March 2015
PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices ended lower, the April prices ended the day at Rs 25685 per
10 grams on 11 March 2015 against Rs 25919 per 10 grams on 10
March 2015. May Silver closed at Rs. 35049 per 1 kg, down 1.82%.

Gold futures fell with the U.S. dollar's continued climb sinking prices for
the yellow metal to their lowest level since early November. Gold for
April delivery fell $9.50, or 0.82%, to settle at $1,150.60 an ounce on
Comex. May silver dropped 26.8 cents, or 1.71%, to end at $15.365 an
ounce.
Open Interest
Closing
Bullion
Gold April MCX
Gold April Comex
Silver May MCX
Silver May Comex
Open
25950
1161
35725
15.625
Bullion
( Technical )
Gold April MCX
Gold April Comex
Silver May MCX
Silver May Comex
High
25950
1164
35828
15.730
Low
25653
1147
34887
15.260
11-Mar-15
25685
1151
35049
15.365
10-Mar-15
25919
1160
35697
15.633
% Ch
-0.90
-0.82
-1.82
-1.71
11-Mar-15
9804
226123
14658
107626
% Ch
7.29
-5.45
11.82
1.01
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
25685
1151
35049
15.365
25278
1126
33740
14.703
25466
1136
34314
14.982
25575
1143
34681
15.173
25763
1154
35255
15.452
25872
1161
35622
15.643
26060
1172
36196
15.922
26169
1179
36563
16.113
Holdings In Tonnes As On
Name of the ETF
10-Mar-15
9138
239160
13108
106555
11-Mar-2015
10-Mar-2015
%Ch
11-Mar-2015
Ratio
Close
Ratio
Close
SPDR Gold ETF
753.04
753.04
0.00
Gold v/s Silver
1150.60
15.365
74.88
iShares Silver Trust
10181.17
10181.17
0.00
Gold v/s Crude Oil
1150.60
48.17
23.89
OUTLOOK OF PRECIOUS METALS
Likely to remain range-bound. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
12 March 2015
BASE METALS

MCX Copper April expiry contract closed lower. April Copper ended the
day at Rs 365.05 per kg on 11 March 2015 against 367.70 per kg on 10
March 2015.

China imported 306500 tonnes of scrap copper in January, down
60,000 tonnes, or 16.39%, on the month and 4.54% year-on-year,
Customs data show. China scrap copper imports have declined every
January since 2003.
LME Inventories (In Tonnes)
Base Metals
Aluminum
Copper
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
11-Mar-2015
10-Mar-2015
3917625
330425
432480
212500
542850
3917975
328450
432900
213325
540800
Base Metals
( Closing )
21-Mar-12
Base Metals
( Technical )
Aluminium ( March )
Copper ( April )
Nickel ( March )
Lead ( March )
Zinc ( March )
% Change
-350
1975
-420
-825
2050
-0.01
0.60
-0.10
-0.39
0.38
20-Mar-12
10-Mar-15
11-Mar-15
LME Aluminium ( Spot )
LME Aluminum (3 Month Forward )
MCX Aluminium ( March )
LME Copper ( Spot )
LME Copper ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Copper ( April )
LME Nickel ( Spot )
LME Nickel ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Nickel ( March )
LME Lead ( Spot )
LME Lead ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Lead ( March )
LME Zinc ( Spot )
LME Zinc ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Zinc ( March )
Change
1753.50
1768.00
109.80
5785.50
5766.50
365.05
13970.00
14050.00
865.30
1811.00
1813.00
113.40
2007.00
2024.00
125.25
1749.00
1761.00
110.80
5783.00
5755.00
367.70
14070.00
14125.00
884.20
1806.00
1808.00
114.60
2002.00
2023.00
126.65
%Change
%Change
0.26
0.40
-0.90
0.04
0.20
-0.72
-0.71
-0.53
-2.14
0.28
0.28
-1.05
0.25
0.05
-1.11
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
109.80
365.05
865.30
113.40
125.25
107.70
356.30
824.70
111.30
121.90
108.70
360.40
844.10
112.30
123.50
109.20
362.70
854.70
112.80
124.40
110.20
366.80
874.10
113.80
126.00
110.80
369.10
884.70
114.40
126.80
111.80
373.20
904.10
115.40
128.40
112.30
375.50
914.70
115.90
129.30
OUTLOOK OF BASE METALS
Likely to remain range-bound with positive bias. Trade tracking support and resistances.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
12 March 2015
ENERGY

MCX Crude Oil March expiry ended at Rs 3000 per barrel, down 1.99%
while March Natural Gas closed at Rs. 178.60 per British thermal unit,
up 3.60%.

Crude Oil futures fell after a U.S. government report showed a ninth
straight weekly climb in crude supplies, but pared losses late in the
trading session to hold ground at a two-week low. On the New York
Mercantile Exchange, crude for delivery in April settled at $48.17 a
barrel, down 12 cents, or 0.25%. April natural gas climbed 9.2 cents, or
3.37%, to end at $2.824 per million British thermal units.
EIA Crude Oil Inventories Data
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that
crude inventories climbed by 4.5 million barrels for the week ended March 6.
Gasoline supplies were down 200,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles
rose 2.5 million barrels, according to the EIA.
EIA Natural Gas Inventories Forecast
The EIA will issue its weekly natural-gas supply report on Thursday, with
consensus expectations calling for a decrease of 191 billion cubic feet for the
week ended March 06.
Open Interest
Closing
ENERGY
Crude Oil March MCX
Crude April Nymex
Natural Gas March MCX
Natural Gas April Henry Hub
ENERGY
( Technical )
Crude Oil March MCX
Crude April Nymex
Natural Gas March MCX
Natural Gas April Henry Hub
Open
3069
48.77
172.00
2.716
High
3094
49.05
179.40
2.848
Low
2990
47.33
168.50
2.662
11-Mar-15
3000
48.17
178.60
2.824
10-Mar-15
3061
48.29
172.40
2.732
% Ch
-1.99
-0.25
3.60
3.37
11-Mar-15
36741
215728
7724
167060
10-Mar-15
34075
251098
8992
178746
% Ch
7.82
-14.09
-14.10
-6.54
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
3000
48.17
178.60
2.824
2858
45.60
160.70
2.522
2924
46.46
164.60
2.592
2962
47.32
171.60
2.708
3028
48.18
175.50
2.778
3066
49.04
182.50
2.894
3132
49.90
186.40
2.964
3170
50.76
193.40
3.080
OUTLOOK OF ENERGY
Likely to remain range-bound with positive bias. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
12 March 2015
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Time
5:30:00 AM
5:31:00 AM
6:00:00 AM
6:00:00 AM
12:30:00 PM
12:30:00 PM
12:30:00 PM
12:30:00 PM
1:15:00 PM
1:15:00 PM
1:15:00 PM
3:00:00 PM
3:00:00 PM
3:30:00 PM
3:30:00 PM
5:30:00 PM
5:30:00 PM
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5:30:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
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6:00:00 PM
7:30:00 PM
8:00:00 PM
11:30:00 PM
Country
Australia
U.K.
Australia
Australia
Germany
Germany
Germany
Germany
France
France
France
U.K.
U.K.
Eurozone
Eurozone
India
India
India
India
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
Thursday March 12, 2015
Event
MI Inflation Expectations
RICS House Price Balance (Feb)
Employment Change (Feb)
Unemployment Rate (Feb)
German CPI (MoM) (Feb)
German CPI (YoY) (Feb)
German HICP (MoM) (Feb)
German HICP (YoY) (Feb)
French CPI (MoM) (Feb)
French HICP (MoM) (Feb)
French HICP (YoY) (Feb)
Trade Balance (Jan)
Trade Balance Non-EU (Jan)
Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan)
Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
CPI (YoY) (Feb)
Cumulative Industrial Production (Jan)
Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan)
Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Jan)
Continuing Jobless Claims
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
Export Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
Initial Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan)
Natural Gas Storage
Federal Budget Balance (Feb)
Actual
3.2%
14%
15.6K
6.3%
Forecast Previous
4.0%
6%
7%
15.0K
-12.2K
6.3%
6.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.1%
0.1%
1.00%
1.00%
-0.10% -0.10%
0.6%
-1.0%
0.6%
-1.1%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-9.70B -10.15B
-3.35B
-3.80B
0.1%
-0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
5.20%
5.11%
2.10%
0.7%
1.7%
2.10%
2400k 2,421K
0.5%
-0.9%
-0.2%
-2.0%
0.2%
-2.8%
305K
320K
304.75K
0.3%
-0.8%
0.1%
0.1%
-191B
-228B
-187.0B
-18.0B
D I S C L A I M E R
This document has been prepared by ICFL (100% Subsidiary Company of Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd) and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be
reported or copied or made available to others. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy and sell any
Commodity or as an official confirmation of any transaction. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This document is prepared for assistance only and is
not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. ICFL (100%
Subsidiary Company of Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd) Recommendation Service is a general recommendation service and is not to be construed as an individual investor specific Portfolio
Management and Advisory Service.
The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the Commodities to in this document and
should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
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