AIMES:
Analysis, Integration and
Modelling of the Earth System
Peter Cox
Co-Chair of AIMES
AIMES Scientific Steering Committee
Refugee from 70’s
Sander van der Lueew
Duarte Costa
Gilberto Gallopin
Tim Lenton
Pati Pinho
Victor Brovkin
Marko Scholze
Bala
Govindaswamy
Jae Edmonds
Taka Hirata
Ana Paula Aguia
Lisa Alexander
Kathy Hibbard
Kiyoshi Takahashi
Mark Rounsevell
Almut Arneth
Dave Schimel
AIMES Tools & Expertise
Integrated Assessment
Modelling
Land-Use
Change
Climatic
Extremes
Model-Data
Fusion
Earth System
Observations
Earth System
Modelling
Tipping Points
Impacts of
Geoengineering
AIMES Themes
Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change.
Introduction à Highlights à Collaborations 2012 Highlights: Model Comparison – Phytoplankton distributions obtained from different mechanisms Similar total Phyto. Biomass & Bloom Timing, but different Diatom distribution, due to different growth limitation mechanism Diatom Biomass
Nanoplankton
Diatom Nanoplankton
Diatom Nanoplankton
Diatom
Nanoplankton
Diatom
Domination Domination Domination Domination Domination Domination Domination Domination
Phyto Biomass Bloom Timing
PISCES
NEMURO
PlankTOM
CCSM/BEC
Max Chla [mg/m3]
Provided by T. Hashioka (JAMSTEC)
Nutrient
Vmax
Light
Hashioka et al., in press
AIMES Themes
Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change.
Ø Human-Environment Coupling.
Climate Change Projection
IMPACTS
IPCC WG2
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE IMPACTS
ON THE ECONOMY
IPCC WG1
GHG EMISSIONS
IPCC WG3
SOCIOECONOMICS
Simple Climate-Economy Model
Background CO2 Emissions Growth-rate of 1% and 4%
Without climate impacts
on economy
Economic Depression
due to Environmental
change
Kellie & Cox,2011
Simple Climate-Economy Model
Kellie & Cox,2011
AIMES Themes
Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change.
Ø Human-Environment Coupling.
Ø Planet Earth as a Complex System.
Tipping Points
(Lenton et al., 2008)
Map of potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system, updated from ref. 5
and overlain on global population density
Lenton T. M. et.al. PNAS 2008
Stability, Sensitivity and Variability
Stable
Equilibrium
Less Stable
Equilibrium
Small Sensitivity
to Forcing
Short and Fast
Oscillations
Larger Sensitivity
to Forcing
Long and Slow
Oscillations
Detectable Precursors of Tipping Points ?
Dakos et al., 2008; Scheffer et al., 2009
Are we looking
in the
wrong place for
tipping points?
What can AIMES offer to TWI2050?
Ø  Knowledge of tipping points and tipping point
precursors.
Ø  Expertise spanning “complex” Earth System
Models and Integrated Assessment Models.
Ø  Techniques for Model-Data Fusion.
Ø  Decadal prediction of the human-environment
system?
Ø  Feedback control modelling to inform adaptive
policies?
Is Decadal
Prediction the
answer to
“Hiatus”
problems?
Roberts et al., 2015
Keenlyside et al., 2008