1. No category

The Week Ahead
March 23-27, 2015
Economics
Avery Shenfeld
(416) 594-7356
[email protected]
Benjamin Tal
(416) 956-3698
[email protected]
Andrew Grantham
(416) 956-3219
[email protected]
Nick Exarhos
(416) 956-6527
[email protected]
American Consumers
Can Carry the Weight
by Benjamin Tal
Now that we know Yellen is no longer
patient, but also not impatient, the focus
turns back to the data. And in that domain,
nothing is more important than the nonfarm payroll jobs numbers. And those have
been persistently strong over the past year.
In fact, you have to go back to 1993 to see
another episode of 12 consecutive months
of above-200k jobs gain. And back then,
we were in the early stages of the recovery.
Good things don’t last forever and with every
month of strong employment numbers the
likelihood of a disappointing reading rises.
The impact on markets will be asymmetrical.
Relatively strong numbers will trigger little
reaction (‘tell me something I don’t know’
kind of sentiment) but weak numbers can
trigger a rally in the bond market. Such a
rally will be short-lived.
The Fed does not make decisions based on
monthly jobs numbers. In fact, following the
first hike in June 2004, the Fed continued
to hike despite a notable slowing in pace of
jobs creation in the second half of that year.
If history is any guide, the Fed might start
hiking even if the pace of jobs creation starts
to slow from the current strong pace.
What’s more, both economic theory and
common sense suggest that wage growth
in the US should accelerate in the coming
months. And along with the increase in fulltime employment, income can continue to
rise despite some softening in the pace of
actual payroll gains.
http://research.
cibcwm.com/res/Eco/
EcoResearch.html
As importantly, there are growing signs
that credit growth is starting to supplement
income growth. Total consumer credit is now
growing by just under 7% on a year-overyear basis. Non-revolving credit is rising by
north of 8% (y/y), while revolving credit is
expanding by more than 3% (y/y) after being
basically flat between 2011 and 2014.
The main driver here is not only pent-up
demand for credit, but more so, increased
appetite by lenders to lend. After all, credit
quality in the US continues to improve. The
90+ days delinquency rate on credit cards
is at the lowest rate since the early 2000s,
and it is falling at the fastest pace on record.
That led to a 6% increase in credit limits in
the past two years. At the same time, the
share of current mortgages transitioning
into the 30-60 days delinquency pocket is at
a record low.
The pace of job creation might slow in the
coming months, but rising wages, better job
composition, increased borrowing, and yes
… we almost forgot….the de-facto 10%
tax cut on households due to lower gasoline
prices, should provide consumers with all
the tools they need to achieve the 3.2%
annualized growth we assigned to them in
our forecast for the coming three quarters.
Charge it!
Credit Card
Balances
15%
16
10%
%
14
5%
12
10
0%
8
-5%
6
4
-10%
-15%
Credit Cards - 90+
days Delinquency
Rate
2
03 05 07 09 11 13
0
03 05 07 09 11 13
CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBC • (416) 594-7000
C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6
Friday
March 27
Thursday
March 26
Wednesday
March 25
Tuesday
March 24
Monday
March 23
`
CIBC
Consensus
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance
Prior
(Feb)
(Feb)
10:00 AM
EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR
EXISTING HOME SALES M/M
(Feb)
(Feb)
(Mar)
10:00 AM
NEW HOME SALES SAAR
NEW HOME SALES M/M
RICHMOND FED MANUF. INDEX
(Mar)
(Mar)
(Q4 F)
(Q4 F)
(Mar)
Speaker: 9:00 AM Dennis Lockhart (Atlanta)
Speaker: 4:35 AM James Bullard (St Louis)
8:30 AM
GDP (annualized)
GDP DEFLATOR (annualized)
10:00 AM
MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
(Mar 14)
(Mar 21)
(Feb)
(Feb)
9:45 AM
MARKIT US COMPOSITE PMI Preliminary
MARKIT US SERVICES PMI Preliminary
8:30 AM
CONTINUING CLAIMS
INITIAL CLAIMS
Speaker: 6:30 AM Charles L. Evans (Chicago)
AUCTION: 7-YR TREASURIES $29B
8:30 AM
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M
7:00 AM
MBA-APPLICATIONS
(Mar 20)
(Mar)
9:45 AM
MARKIT US MANUFACTURING PMI Preliminary
Speaker: 6:05 AM James Bullard (St Louis)
AUCTION: 5-YR TREASURIES $35B
(Feb)
(Feb)
(Feb)
(Feb)
8:30 AM
CPI M/M
CPI M/M (core)
CPI Y/Y
CPI Y/Y (core)
Speaker: 12:00 PM Stanley Fischer (Vice Chair)
Speaker: 10:00 AM John C Williams (San Francisco)
Speaker: 4:40 AM Loretta Mester (Cleveland)
AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $40B (prev)
AUCTION: 2-YR TREASURIES $26B
(Feb)
8:30 AM
CHICAGO FED NAT.ACTIVITY INDEX
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $24B
UNITED STATES
(H)
(H)
(H)
(L)
(L)
(L)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(L)
(H)
(H)
(M)
(L)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(M)
(M)
(M)
Speaker: 3:45 PAM Janet l. Yellen (Chair)
Speaker: 6:30 AM Stanley Fischer (Vice Chair)
SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Consensus Source: Bloomberg
Speaker: 9:15 AM Stephen S. Poloz (Governor) and 10:45 AM Press Conference
QUÉBEC BUDGET
ALBERTA BUDGET
Speaker: 3:30 PM Timothy Lane (Deputy Gov.)
AUCTION: 2-YR CANADAS $3.4B
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $4.4B, 6-M BILLS $1.8B, 1-YR BILLS $1.8B
CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Jun'15 - Jun'16) - $1.0B
CANADA
2.4%
0.1%
1.0%
0.0%
456K
-5.2%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.6%
4.97M
3.1%
CIBC
92.0
2.4%
0.1%
295K
0.3%
0.3%
470K
-2.3%
2.0
55.3
0.2%
0.1%
-0.1%
1.7%
4.92M
2.1%
Consensus
91.2
2.2%
0.1%
57.2
57.1
2417K
291K
2.8%
0.0%
-1.3%
481K
-0.2%
0.0
55.1
-0.7%
0.2%
-0.1%
1.6%
4.82M
-4.9%
0.1%
Prior
Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—March 23-27, 2015
Week Ahead’s Market Call
by Nick Exarhos and Andrew Grantham
We’ll have time to digest what was a weak series of recent readings on Canada’s economy,
since next week is free of data releases. Investors will instead be eyeing Deputy Governor
Timothy Lane’s speech on Wednesday, with any mention at all regarding the Bank’s “tools”
to set off alarm bells. Governor Poloz himself will follow with a speech the day after, and
we’ll see if the soft January data fits into his story on the “front-loaded” nature of the oil
shock. Alberta will have a chance to outline crude’s effects on its finances with a budget due
on Thursday, the same day Québec tables a budget of its own.
In the US, February’s CPI data will be watched even more closely after the Fed stated that
inflation should remain near recent “low levels”. While we err on the side of an upside
surprise to headline inflation and a stable core rate, it’s clear that Fed hikes could be delayed
if the latter weakens further. Housing data could succumb to February’s bad weather, while
durable goods orders will continue to highlight the struggles of manufacturers against the
strong US$. A number of Fed speakers, highlighted by Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, give their
views on policy in the aftermath of this week’s downgraded rate projections and subsequent
bond market rally.
3
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—March 23-27, 2015
There are no key Canadian economic indicators this week.
4
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—March 23-27, 2015
Week Ahead’s Key US Number:
1.0
Consumer Price Index—February
(Tuesday, 8:30 a.m.)
US Consumer Price Index
y/y % chg
m/m % chg
4
3
0.5
2
Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219
0.0
1
Headline CPI m/m
Headline CPI yr/yr
Core CPI m/m
Core CPI yr/yr
-0.5
CIBC Mkt Prior
0.3%
0.2% -0.7%
0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
0.1%
0.1% 0.2%
1.6%
1.7% 1.6%
-1.0
Feb-13
CPI (L)
Oil and gasoline prices may have started to slide again
recently, but for CPI in February there was a temporary
respite. Indeed, gasoline prices were on average higher
in February than in January, which could have resulted
in a 0.3% increase in headline CPI and taken the annual
rate briefly out of negative territory.
0
Oct-13
CPI y-o-y (R)
Jun-14
-1
Feb-15F
CPI ex Food & Energy y-o-y (R)
increase. That will leave the annual rate unchanged at
1.6%.
Forecast Implications—Any rebound in headline CPI
is likely to be only temporary, with oil prices having
slipped further in recent weeks. The annual headline
rate will likely be back below zero in the coming months.
Meanwhile lower import prices thanks to a strong US$
will likely stop core CPI from moving higher until the
second half of the year.
But outside of a temporary rebound in energy prices,
the CPI figures are unlikely to show much in the way of
price pressures. Certainly the latest producer price figures
hinted at weakness in a broad range of consumer goods
and services. And although that measure isn’t a great
guide to core CPI (due in part to the large weight of
shelter in the CPI figures), it suggests we shouldn’t expect
anything more than a modest 0.1% month-on-month
Market Impact—We are a little above the consensus for
headline CPI, but in-line for core, which has been more
of a driver in terms of market expectations for Fed policy
recently.
Other US Releases:
Durable Goods Orders—February
(Wednesday, 8:30 a.m.)
The US manufacturing sector has been struggling recently
against a strong US$ and slow growth in some key export
markets, with the slowing in durable goods orders since
the Fall the first indication. While orders appear to be
stabilizing somewhat, they are likely to show little in the
way of a rebound. We expect ex-transport orders to be
flat on the month, with aircraft orders supporting the
headline number to a 1.0% gain.
5
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—March 23-27, 2015
Equity Insights
Nick Exarhos
Crude: Under Fire Once Again
US Nat Gas Rigs Are a Fraction of What They Were (L),
But Production Continues to Grow (R)
Though news of falling rig counts supported crude prices
in February, US production continues to swell. But don’t
be surprised that we haven’t seen an immediate supply
response. There’s a recent historical parallel in US natural
gas production, where the horizontal drilling, which is
responsible for the shale boom, took root. And there,
America is producing over 30% more natural gas than
it did when it had roughly six times as many rigs. Rapid
technological improvements, including drillers now
starting to re-frack already fracked oil wells, are reasons
to believe that growth in global demand for crude must
be a key driver of a meaningful rebound in prices, not
sharply lower US supply.
1800
US Nat Gas Rig Count
2500
US Nat Gas Production
(BCF, 3-mo avg)
1600
1400
1349 Fewer
Rigs
1200
1000
2300
>30% Growth
2100
800
1900
600
400
1700
200
15
14
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
0
1500
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: Baker Hughes, EIA, CIBC
North American Consumer Stock Strength
TSX and S&P Consumer Discretionary Stocks Move in
Lockstep (L), Despite Divergent Fundamentals (R)
Cheaper oil prices have mixed effects for Canadian
consumers, as gasoline savings are offset with weaker
employment prospects and lower purchasing power by
way of a cheaper C$. But a less expensive barrel of oil
is a more resounding positive for American shoppers.
Despite those different fundamentals, and a recent
divergence in aggregate wage and salary growth,
consumer discretionary stocks both north and south of
the border have been rallying in lockstep. Though rapid
gains seen in the US labour market may not be matched
by developments in Canada, there may still be value in
consumer discretionary stocks, as TSX investors seek
haven amidst the oil rout and a somewhat more muddled
Canadian economic landscape.
Salary and Wage Income Growth
(YoY %)
2100
Consumer Discretionary
Sub-Indices
620
6
2000
600
5
580
1900
560
1800
540
1700
520
4
3
2
TSX (Left)
Mar-15
0
Feb-15
480
Jan-15
1500
Dec-14
1
Nov-14
500
Oct-14
1600
S&P 500 (Right)
Canada
USA
Source: Bloomberg, Statistics Canada, BEA, CIBC
Europe, A Solid Long-Term Buy?
The economic picture in Canada may not be as bleak as
it has been in Europe, though that region could be due
for brighter days ahead. As the ECB has unleashed QE
in the Eurozone, European stocks have rallied smartly,
at least in euro terms. Year-to-date performance of
the STOXX 600 index is just over 18%, but priced in
greenbacks—to correct for currency weakness—and
the return shrinks to around 5%. European stocks have,
unsurprisingly given growth worries, under-performed
the US benchmark since Draghi’s “whatever it takes”
promise. But QE should support the Eurozone economy,
along with stock fundamentals, and the euro itself longerterm. That should make continental assets more attractive
for domestic investors seeking exposure to improving
prospects abroad.
European Stocks Lag in Currency-Adjusted Terms (L),
But Better Growth Prospects to Support Fundamentals (R)
165
Index = 100
155
145
135
125
115
105
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
95
STOXX Europe 600 (in USD)
S&P 500
6
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Eurozone Growth (y/y %)
2015
2016
Consensus in Jan
Consensus Now
CIBC
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—March 23-27, 2015
Currency Currents
Andrew Grantham
Cdn Autos Not Gearing Up…Yet
Canada Continuing to Lose Share of North American Auto
Production (L), Picked up by the US Not Mexico (R)
Weakness in auto sales, shipments and production was
a key cause of disappointment in all the major data this
past week (retail, wholesale and manufacturing). Given
the large run-up previously, some easing in auto sales
isn’t surprising. What is more surprising is that, even
with the C$ materially weaker than a couple of years
ago, the Canadian auto sector continues to lose market
share in the North American space. But there’s often a lag
before investment in new plants comes through, and the
good news is that the market share lost in recent years
has been taken by the US rather than Mexico. With the
C$ now, if anything, slightly undervalued rather than
massively overvalued vs the greenback, investment should
begin to trickle back.
20%
Canada Share of
N.America Car & Truck
Production (12mma)
19%
18%
2%
17%
1%
16%
Change in Share of
N.American Production
Since 2010
3%
0%
15%
-1%
14%
-2%
13%
-3%
12%
-4%
US
Canada Mexico
Source: Automotive News, CIBC
Recovery in Employment-to-Population Ratio
Much Stronger in UK
A Sterling Labour Market Performance
Even after what was perceived to be a dovish Federal
Reserve on Wednesday, it’s a good bet that the US will be
the first to hike rates whether that be in June, September
or another meeting. But the UK may not be as far behind
as markets currently expect. Dovish comments from BoE
Chief Economist and MPC member Haldane saw sterling
retreat this week, yet the recent labour market figures
suggest that wage inflation may actually be closer to
taking off in the UK than even the US. The employment
to population ratio in the UK hit a record high this
week—above even the pre-recession peak. So while
there could be further sterling weakness in the near-term
thanks to election uncertainty, if a stable government is
formed expect the currency to appreciate against not just
the euro but even the US$ as well.
75
Employment-to-Population Ratio
(16-65)
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
US
66
UK
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-06
Jul-04
Jan-03
Jul-01
Jan-00
65
Source: ONS, BLS, CIBC
Volatility No Greater Recently Than in Run-up to 2004 Fed Hike
Volatility—You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet
18
Thought the currency moves in the aftermath of the Fed
statement and updated projections were big? In reality
volatility hasn’t been any greater recently than in the
run-up to the Fed’s first rate hike in 2004, despite the
fact that monetary policy globally is showing greater
divergence these days and the world economy is more
uneven. In that environment we would expect volatility to
remain higher than it was during that 2004 period, with
currencies reacting and overacting to key data releases
and central bank comments.
USDEUR Historic 1-Month Volatility
16
Fed hike in
June 2004
14
12
10
8
6
2004
4
2015
2
7
1-Dec
1-Nov
1-Oct
1-Sep
1-Aug
1-Jul
1-Jun
1-May
1-Apr
1-Mar
1-Feb
1-Jan
0
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—March 23-27, 2015
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
March/April 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
17
16
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
NOV4.8 0.1 -0.6 4.3
DEC-8.5 2.0 -7.0 -13.5
JAN
10.5
-5.81.05.7
WEDNESDAY
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
NOV -1.32.6
DEC 1.65.0
JAN -1.72.9
THURSDAY
18
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
24
25
Bank of Canada
Dep. Gov. Lane speaks at
Chamber of Commerce in
Kelowna BC at 3:30 PM ET
30
19
Saskatchewan
Provincial Budget
23
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
DEC -1.5-0.4
JAN -0.4-2.2
FEB
FRIDAY
31
26
27
Bank of Canada
Governor Poloz speaks at
Chamber of Commerce in
London UK at 9:15 AM ET,
Press Conference
at 10:45 AM ET
Québec Provincial Budget
Alberta Provincial Budget
2
1
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDPIND.PROD.
MM
NOV-0.2 -0.9
DEC0.3 0.8
JAN
20
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
NOV 0.34.4
DEC -1.84.0
JAN -1.71.2
CONSUMER
PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
DEC -0.71.5
JAN -0.21.0
FEB 0.91.0
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
DEC -1,2184,445
JAN -2,4512,215
FEB
3
GOOD FRIDAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
New Brunswick
Provincial Budget
6
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGELEVEL
JAN 0.13774.8
FEB-0.06974.8
MAR
7
8
9
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
JAN187 57
FEB156 55
MAR
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
10
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATEEARN
MY%Y
JAN0.20.7 6.62.1
FEB0.00.7 6.81.7
MAR
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
DEC
1.515.0
JAN
-7.0-22.8
FEB
13
14
15
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
DEC 1.65.0
JAN -1.72.9
FEB
16
17
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
DEC -1.84.0
JAN -1.71.2
FEB
CONSUMER
PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
JAN -0.21.0
FEB 0.91.0
MAR
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
DEC-8.5 2.0 -7.0 -13.5
JAN
10.5
-5.81.05.7
FEB
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
8
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—March 23-27, 2015
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
March/April 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
16
CAPACITY UTIL/
IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
DEC 79.4-0.3 4.3
JAN 79.40.2 4.8
FEB 78.90.1 3.4
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
WEDNESDAY
17
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
DEC1.087 7.1
JAN 1.065-2.0
FEB 0.897-15.8
3,10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
FOMC Rate Decision
Fed Chair Yellen speaks
post-FOMC Conference at
2:30 PM ET
25
DURABLE
GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
DEC -3.70.1
JAN 2.85.4
FEB
26
27
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDPDEFLATOR
14:Q3(F)5.0
1.4
14:Q4(P)2.2
0.1
14:Q4(F)
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
10:00 AM
2,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
2
1
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
JAN
FEB
MAR
53.535.0
52.935.0
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
JAN
16.5538.9
FEB
16.1655.4
MAR
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
DEC -65.0 19.4-45.6
JAN -61.6 19.9-41.8
FEB
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
DEC -3.5-3.7
JAN -0.2-2.3
FEB
3,10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM
10
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
14
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON- CIVAVG
FARMUNEMP HRLY
PAYROLL RATE EARN
(000s)M
%
Y
JAN
2395.72.0
FEB
2955.51.6
MAR
9
8
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
3
GOOD FRIDAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Stock Market Closed)
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
7
FOMC Minutes
13
GDP
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
31
6
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
7-Yr BOND AUCTION
5-Yr BOND AUCTION
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
PERS. INC & OUT.
10:00 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
DEC0.3 -0.3 4.9
JAN0.3-0.2 5.5
FEB
2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
CORPORATE PROFITS
8:30 AM
2-Yr BOND AUCTION
30
20
CURRENT ACCT BAL.
8:30 AM
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
24
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
FRIDAY
19
18
CPI
8:30 AM M(SA)
Y (NSA)
DEC -0.30.8
JAN -1.10.0
FEB
23
EXISTING HOME SALES
10:00 AM
THURSDAY
15
3,10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT
16
17
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
DEC1.087 7.1
JAN 1.065-2.0
FEB 0.897-15.8
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
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CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—March 23-27, 2015
This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture
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