The Week Ahead April 20-24, 2015 ECONOMICS Avery Shenfeld (416) 594-7356 [email protected] Benjamin Tal (416) 956-3698 [email protected] Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219 [email protected] Nick Exarhos (416) 956-6527 [email protected] For Ontario, Now Is the Time by Avery Shenfeld Ontario has been coping with a rising debt burden for years, but since the 2008/09 recession, it’s been handcuffed by a soft economy in terms of how quickly it could address that challenge. Earlier in this cycle, the province judged that more abrupt cuts in spending or broader tax hikes would have risked taking the economy off course from what was still a fragile recovery, one that was trailing that of the country as a whole. Keynes would have agreed. But finally, now is the time to tackle deficit reduction head on. The signposts are emerging that the province, while not yet at full employment, is on a much sounder footing, running well ahead of the pack on several key indicators (Chart). Ontario’s time has come. A fiscal tightening will still be a drag on growth, as it always is. But for 2015, there are some nice tailwinds. Cheaper gasoline will provide a cushion for household spending. A Canadian dollar closer to fair value should be supportive for exports, and over time, help the province defend its existing plants and attract new ones. Ontario’s economy has historically been by far the most leveraged to improvements stateside. While the US suffered through a sluggish Q1, brisk American hiring suggests that employers are optimistic about what lies ahead in the balance of the year. “Ontario’s time has come.” No single budget can erase a deficit of more than $10 bn. Even a three-year path to a balance will require tough medicine. That goes beyond asset sales that will reduce Ontario’s gross borrowing requirements http://research.cibcwm. com/res/Eco/EcoResearch. html CIBC World Markets Inc. CIBC World Markets • for infrastructure projects. While useful in supporting provincial spreads, such transactions don’t address the fundamental need to bring program spending and revenues into better alignment. Those who have worried about Ontario’s fiscal fate should take a bit more comfort in signals that growth has returned. Fiscal probity should be assessed not just by comparing debts to current GDP, but also by their ratio to where GDP will be five or ten years out. Ontario’s working age population is growing, and could even pick up a bit if economic success draws in-migration. If the province can average nominal GDP growth of 4% in the next half-decade that would put Ontario in better shape than jurisdictions to its east, where the 15-64 year old population has declined in every province in the past year, and in some cases, in the past several years. You can’t just grow your way out of debt, but growth is a big plus. Ontario is Well Ahead of the Pack 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Yr/Yr % (3m avg) Ontario PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 Corp 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017 • • Rest of Canada • Bloomberg @ CIBC (212) 856-4000, • (416) 594-7000 (800) 999-6726 Friday April 24 Thursday April 23 Wednesday April 22 Tuesday April 21 Monday April 20 ` CIBC (Feb) (M) 1.0% Speaker: 10:30 AM Stephen S. Poloz (Governor) H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance ONTARIO BUDGET CANADIAN FEDERAL BUDGET AUCTION: 2-YR CANADAS $3.6B 8:30 AM WHOLESALE TRADE M/M Speaker: 10:05 AM Stephen S. Poloz (Governor) AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $7.4B, 6-M BILLS $2.8B, 1-YR BILLS $2.8B CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Jun'15 - Jun'16) - $1.0B CANADA -3.1% Prior (Mar) (Mar) (H) (H) Consensus Source: Bloomberg 8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M (H) (H) 520K -3.5% 289K 5.03M 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 510K -5.4% (Mar) (Mar) 5.10M 4.5% 0.1% 10:00 AM NEW HOME SALES SAAR NEW HOME SALES M/M (L) (H) (M) (M) (L) (M) Consensus 56.0 (Apr 11) (Apr 18) (Mar) (Mar) (Apr 17) (Mar) CIBC 9:45 AM MARKIT US MANUFACTURING PMI Preliminary 8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS INITIAL CLAIMS 10:00 AM EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR EXISTING HOME SALES M/M 7:00 AM MBA-APPLICATIONS AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $30B (prev) 8:30 AM CHICAGO FED NAT.ACTIVITY INDEX AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $24B UNITED STATES SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Consensus -1.4% -0.6% 539K 7.8% 55.7 2268K 294K 4.88M 1.2% -2.3% -0.1% Prior Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—April 20-24, 2015 Week Ahead’s Market Call by Avery Shenfeld In the US, markets will have one eye on the Greek situation in Europe, but will also be getting further insights into the picture of the American economy as a soft Q1 came to a close. Much of the data will be housing related, with existing home sales now essentially eclipsed as an indicator by the advance readings we get from pending sales. We should start to do better on core durable orders, although the latter’s bounce will still leave the quarter looking ugly, affected by the strong US dollar and capital spending softness in the mining, oil and gas sector. In Canada, it’s all about fiscal policy. The headlines from both the Federal and Ontario budgets have already been released, so now its about how it all adds up in the bottom line. Ottawa still has room to announce measures that kick in come 2016/17, where there is more revenue elbow room left. Ontario promised a “progressive” budget, and is now into the years in which it earlier pledged to bring deficits down at a faster clip. 3 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—April 20-24, 2015 There are no Key Canadian Numbers this week. 4 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—April 20-24, 2015 Week Ahead’s Key US Number: % Durable Goods Orders—March 25 (Friday, 8:30 a.m.) 20 US Durable Goods Orders m/m % change (L) y/y % change (R) 15 Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219 10 5 Durable goods, m/m ex transportation, m/m 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 25 20 0 -15 -20 30 5 -10 -1.4% -0.6% 35 10 -5 CIBC MktPrior 40 15 0 % -5 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 -10 Mar-15F Forecast Implications—Given the strength of the US$, manufacturing, exports and investment should be expected to provide less of a lift to growth than they did earlier in the recovery. Some weaker trends in these areas wouldn’t be too much of a concern if we saw clearer signs that consumer spending was accelerating to compensate. The US economy has seen a slower thaw from February’s freeze than we had expected, and March’s durable goods orders could show a similarly slow recovery. Aircraft orders, generally a volatile element on a month-to-month basis, are unlikely to provide much direction either way for headline orders in March. And while ex-transport orders could see a little bit of a bounce following some extremely disappointing figures earlier in the year, evidence from recent industry surveys suggests that manufacturers continue to struggle against a strong US$. As such our forecast is for matching, but modest, 0.5% gains in both headline and ex-transport orders. Market Impact—We are close to the consensus in what is always a volatile series. 5 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—April 20-24, 2015 Equity Insights Nick Exarhos Slowing Chinese Production Dents Import Demand Chinese Industrial Output At Mutli-Year Lows (L), Curbing Appetite for Metal Volumes (R) This week brought with it another set of data releases that highlighted China’s economic deceleration. Though the year-on-year rate on Q1 GDP came in right in line with the government’s estimate at 7.0%, industrial output took a sharp turn lower. The 5.6% annual growth pace in March is now at levels last seen in the Great Recession. Chinese policy makers are trying to rotate the economy toward a more a sustainable growth model centered on the consumer, but the recent slowing explains why China’s imports have dropped by 12% over the past year. After weighting metal import volume data by their importance in Canadian exports, the picture isn’t pretty for Canadian material producers. Chinese Industrial Output 25 YoY, % 20 Cda-Weighted Chinese Metal Imports 140 Index=100 130 120 15 110 100 10 90 80 Jul-14 Dec-14 Feb-14 Apr-13 Sep-13 Jun-12 Nov-12 3-mo avg 70 Jan-12 13Q1 5.6 15Q1 11Q3 10Q1 08Q3 05Q3 04Q1 0 07Q1 5.7 08Q4 14Q3 5 Source: Bloomberg, CIBC Canadian Banks Not Counting on Perfect Year TSX Banks Have Cheapened (L), Lofty Earnings Growth Projected for US Firms* (R) Our analyst Rob Sedran joked that lately he’s had a major in banks and a minor in energy. It’s true that the rocky ride in oil has diminished the upside on financial institutions reliant on Canadian activity. But PEs on TSX firms are now roughly the same as those on banks stateside, after being about half a turn more expensive a few months ago. And bank stocks on the TSX aren’t counting on lofty earnings growth further out, unlike banks in the S&P. If investors become more confident that a bottom’s been set in crude, improving sentiment on the Canadian economy could cast a light on the increased attractiveness of Toronto-listed financial institutions. 12.4 EPS Growth Estimates (%) 14 12.2 12 Bank Sector PE Ratios 10 12.0 8 11.8 6 11.6 4 11.4 2 11.2 11.0 0 TSX S&P 6 months ago -2 Now FY15 FY16 TSX FY17 S&P Source: Bloomberg, CIBC *based on Bloomberg consensus Finding Equity Yield in a Low-rate World Some have argued that the current business cycle’s “secular stagnation”, and the limited organic earnings growth opportunities that the next few years may hold, have driven managers—particularly in the US—to sacrifice productive investment at the expense of financially driven per share growth. But it appears that in 2014, overall capital returned to stockholders in the US slightly trailed what was seen in Canada. Although buybacks have been more popular stateside, that’s partly driven by differences in the tax code, not necessarily to cover up lacklustre per share earnings expansion. With the fall in oil prices likely to squeeze Canadian corporate coffers more than cashrich US firms, dividend payouts in the S&P could continue to grow faster than on the TSX. TSX More Focused On Dividends (L), Though Cash Rich S&P Seeing Payout Pick Up (R) Capital Returned To Shareholders 6 5 % of avg Mkt Cap 12 4 10 3 8 2 6 1 4 0 2 S&P 500 Buybacks 6 Last 12 mo Dividends, Versus Same Year-Ago Period (through March) 14 Growth, % TSX Dividends 0 S&P 500 TSX Source: Bloomberg, CIBC CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—April 20-24, 2015 Currency Currents Andrew Grantham Raising the Bar by Lowering Projections New BoC Forecasts Reduce Risk of Disappointment Until Second Half By lowering its projections for Q1 GDP, potential growth and the average oil price over its forecast horizon, the BoC has set a high bar to further interest rate cuts. And choosing to up its projection for Q3 more than Q2, the BoC is signaling a willingness to let the economy ride through weakness in the first half of the year. While we are skeptical that the economy will rebound as strongly and as early as the Bank project in Q3, by that time oil prices may have more of a cushion above the $50 bbl level and prevent another rate cut later in the year. While we see some upside in USDCAD, particularly at the levels reached this week, that has more to do with broad US$ strength as the Fed starts hiking. 3.0 % SAAR Jan MPR Apr MPR CIBC 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014 Q4 Source: Bank of Canada, CIBC Times Aren’t A-Changin’…Yet Scope For Housing to Rebound, Particularly in Northeast (L), Retail Sales Picked up Strongly in Q2 2014 (R) Difference Between Starts and Permits (6mma) 0 7.0 6.0 Core Retail Sales (% 3mma annualized) 5.0 -10 2014 4.0 -20 2015 3.0 -30 2.0 -40 1.0 0.0 -1.0 Jun May Apr -2.0 Mar Jan-15 Mar-15 Nov-14 Jul-14 May-14 Jan-14 Mar-14 -60 Sep-14 Other Regions Northeast Feb -50 Jan The winds that brought cold weather and snow to many areas of the US may have disappeared, but the winds of change haven’t blown quite as strongly over the March economic data as we had expected. That doesn’t mean they won’t. There’s still plenty of scope for housing starts to strengthen, given the recent gap with permit applications particularly in the storm-hit Northeast. And the trend in retail sales isn’t that much different from that witnessed last year, when better weather brought a healthy rebound in Q2. While we shouldn’t give up on expectations of a healthy Q2 for US growth, Fed officials may want to see more concrete evidence before hiking. A hike in July, rather than June as we previously anticipated, could slightly delay the next leg higher in the US$. Source: BEA, CIBC Service Sector Inflation Confirms Eurozone Weakness, Canada Doesn’t Need Further Stimulus The Slack (or Not) Shown by Service Inflation Inflation rates, even at the core level, can be heavily influenced by external factors and don’t always provide a good indication of the degree of slack domestically. Sometimes, looking at just service sector inflation can give a better indication. It’s no great surprise that in the Eurozone service sector inflation is very low, both in respect to other countries and also to its pre-recession norm. There’s not much to choose between the others. Interestingly, service sector inflation in Canada is not just close to that seen in the US and UK, but also close to its pre-recession average—another reason why we see little need for a further ease by the Bank at this stage. 4.5 Services CPI (% Yr/Yr) 4.0 Pre-Recession Avg 3.5 Recession Low 3.0 Latest 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 7 US Cda EZ UK Source: BLS, Statistics Canada, Eurostat, ONC. CIBC CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—April 20-24, 2015 CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES April/May 2015 MONDAY TUESDAY 13 WEDNESDAY 14 THURSDAY 15 FRIDAY 16 SURVEY OF MANUFACTURING 8:30 AM SHIPMENTS M Y DEC 2.15.3 JAN -3.01.8 FEB -1.7-1.5 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement INT’L TRANSACTIONS IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET 8:30 AM BONDS MONEY S TOCKSTOT MARKET DEC-8.5 2.0 -7.0 -13.5 JAN 10.5 -5.81.05.8 FEB 9.9 -2.21.69.3 Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report BoC Governor Poloz and Sr. Dep. Gov. Wilkins attend press conference at 11:15 AM ET 20 BoC Governor Poloz participates in panel in NYC at 10:05 AM ET 21 22 23 WHOLESALE TRADE 8:30 AM 24 BoC Governor Poloz participates in panel in DC at 10:30 AM ET Canadian Federal Budget 27 17 RETAIL TRADE 8:30 AM (Current$) MY DEC -1.83.7 JAN -1.41.3 FEB 1.72.5 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 8:30 AM M(NSA) Y JAN -0.21.0 FEB 0.91.0 MAR 0.71.2 28 29 INDUSTRIAL PRICES 8:30 AM M(NSA) Y JAN -0.3-2.1 FEB 1.8-1.6 MAR 30 GDP BY INDUSTRY 8:30 AM (2002$) GDPIND.PROD. MM DEC0.3 0.4 JAN-0.1 0.4 FEB 1 PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT, EARNINGS & HOURS 8:30 AM WAGE SETTLEMENTS 10:00 AM (%) PVT. PUB.TOT. JAN 2.3 1.41.6 FEB 2.5 2.02.0 MAR Manitoba Provincial Budget 4 5 MERCHANDISE TRADE 8:30 AM $MN 12 MO. BALANCE JAN -1,4753,016 FEB -9841,394 MAR 11 7 6 INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 8:15 AM $BN $BN CHANGELEVEL FEB-0.06974.8 MAR 2.91377.7 APR BUILDING PERMITS ($) 8:30 AM M M (RES)(NON-RES) JAN -8.1-19.4 FEB 1.5-5.4 MAR IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS’ INDEX 10:00 AM 12 13 14 NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX 8:30 AM 8 HOUSING STARTS 8:15 AM 000’s (AR) TOTAL SINGLES FEB151 54 MAR190 52 APR LABOUR FORCE SURVEY 8:30 AM AVG EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY (HSHOLD) RATEEARN MY%Y FEB0.00.7 6.81.7 MAR 0.20.8 6.81.9 APR 15 SURVEY OF MANUFACTURING 8:30 AM SHIPMENTS M Y JAN -3.01.8 FEB -1.7-1.5 MAR INT’L TRANSACTIONS IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET 8:30 AM BONDS MONEY S TOCKSTOT MARKET JAN 10.5 -5.81.05.8 FEB 9.9 -2.21.69.3 MAR All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada. 8 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—April 20-24, 2015 U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES April/May 2015 MONDAY TUESDAY 13 WEDNESDAY 14 RETAIL SALES 8:30 AM M Y JAN -0.83.6 FEB -0.51.9 MAR 0.91.3 PPI (FINISHED GOODS) 8:30 AM M (SA) Y (NSA) JAN -2.1-3.1 FEB -0.1-3.4 MAR THURSDAY 15 CAPACITY UTIL/ IND. PROD. 9:15 AM LEV M Y JAN 79.1-0.4 4.4 FEB 79.00.1 3.5 MAR 78.4-0.6 2.0 FRIDAY 16 HOUSING STARTS 8:30 AMMIL (AR) M JAN 1.072-0.8 FEB 0.908-15.3 MAR0.926 2.0 Beige Book NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS 4:00 PM PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX 10:00 PM 3,10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) 30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT 21 20 S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOUSE PRICE INDEX 9:00 AM NEW HOME SALES 10:00 AM INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30) 29 GDP 8:30 AM (AR) REAL IMPLICIT GDPDEFLATOR 14:Q3(F)5.0 1.4 14:Q4(F)2.2 0.2 15:Q1(A) FACTORY ORDERS 10:00 AM M(SA) Y(NSA) JAN -0.7-2.8 FEB 0.2-4.3 MAR 1 MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F) 9:55 AM ISM MFG SURVEY 10:00 AM COMP. PRICES INDEXINDEX 52.935.0 51.539.0 LIGHT VEHICLES SALES MIL (AR) Y JAN 16.5538.9 FEB 16.1625.4 MAR INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30) BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) 5 24 DURABLE GOODS ORDERS 8:30 AM M Y JAN 2.04.7 FEB -1.40.6 MAR FEB MAR APR PERS. INC & OUT. 10:00 AM SAVING INCOMECONS RATE M MAR JAN0.4-0.2 5.5 FEB0.40.15.8 MAR FOMC Rate Decision GOODS & SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B 8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT JAN -62.5 19.9-42.7 FEB -55.2 19.7-35.4 MAR LEADING INDICATOR 10:00 AM 30 ECI 8:30 AMWAGES & TOTALSALARY BEN. 14:Q3 0.70.80.6 14:Q4 0.60.50.6 15:Q1 CHICAGO PMI 9:45 AM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 10:00 AM 4 23 22 BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) 28 MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P) 9:55 AM INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30) EXISTING HOME SALES 10:00 AM 27 17 CPI 8:30 AM M(SA) Y (NSA) JAN -0.7-0.1 FEB 0.20.0 MAR 0.2-0.1 7 6 ADP SURVEY 8:15 AM EMPLOY. SITUATION 8:30 AM NON- CIVAVG FARMUNEMP HRLY PAYROLL RATE EARN (000s)M % Y FEB 2645.51.7 MAR 1265.51.8 APR NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY 8:30 AM Q/Q (AR) Y/Y 14:Q3 (R) 3.9 1.2 14:Q4 (R) -2.2 -0.1 15:Q1 (P) ISM NON-MFG SURVEY 8 CONSUMER CREDIT 3:00 PM 10:00 AM 3,10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) 11 30-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT 12 13 RETAIL SALES 8:30 AM M Y FEB -0.51.9 MAR 0.91.3 APR INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30) 14 PPI (FINISHED GOODS) 8:30 AM M (SA) Y (NSA) FEB -0.1-3.4 MAR APR 15 CAPACITY UTIL/ IND. PROD. 9:15 AM LEV M Y FEB 79.00.1 3.5 MAR 78.4-0.6 2.0 APR MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P) 9:55 AM TREASURY BUDGET 2:00 PM 3-Yr NOTE AUCTION NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS 4:00 PM 10-Yr NOTE AUCTION 30-Yr BOND AUCTION INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30) BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) 3,10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT 30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board. 9 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—April 20-24, 2015 This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture Exchange and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, (b) in the United Kingdom, CIBC World Markets plc, which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority, and (c) in Australia, CIBC Australia Limited, a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated by the ASIC (collectively, “CIBC”) and (d) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World Markets Inc. for distribution only to U.S. Major Institutional Investors (“MII”) (as such term is defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) or (ii) CIBC World Markets Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. U.S. MIIs receiving this report from CIBC World Markets Inc. 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