CONTENTS CHAPTER 1.1 1.2 INTRODUCTION ..................... . 1-85 Theories of Cooperation Among Nations .. . .. . . . .. . . . ... . . . . .. 10 Elements of Strategic Relationship Between Russia and China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.2.1 1.2.2 1.2.3 1.2.4 1.2.5 1.2.6 1.2.7 1.3 1: Removing Elements of Conflict: The Border Issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Force Reductions.......................................................... Confidence Building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interdependence- A New Trade Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Russian Arms Sales and China's Military Modernisation . . . . . . . . . . . . Cooperation in Northeast Asia and Central Asia........................ Common Position on Global Issues .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . Objectives and Interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1.3.1 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) 1.3.2 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) 1.3.3 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) Common Interests ..................................................... . Shared indignation towards the West ................................ . Common challenges from the U.S ................................... .. Balance of power ........................................................ . Opposition to U.S. missile defence system .......................... . Common interests in regional stability ................................ . Mutually convenient arms trade ......................................... . Non-interference in each other's domestic affairs ................ .. Russian Objectives and Interests ......................................... . Identity crisis vis-a-vis the West ........................................ .. Defence industry ........................................................... . Need for reforming and modernising Russian defence forces ........ . A weakened Russia needs breathing space ............................. . Getting money for economic reforms ................................... . Influence of social factors ............................................... . Regionalism ................................................................. . Framing a new security complex on the Eurasian continent ........ . The regional military balance ............................................ . Fear of Islamic fundamentalism ......................................... . Promoting Russo-Chinese relations ...................................... . Chinese Objectives and Interests ......................................... . New threats and challenges in the post-Cold War world ........... . U.S. challenge to communist China .................................. .. Multipolarity ................................................................. . A new hegemon on the horizon? ...................................... . 'New military doctrine and PLA's modernisation .................... . 'The pragmatic consumer' explanation ................................... . China's effort to emerge as a world power ............................ .. Old tensions resolved ..................................................... . 25 27 29 33 35 36 37 37 38 38 40 42 42 43 44 45 46 46 47 53 54 54 55 56 57 58 58 59 63 63 65 66 66 67 68 68 69 (i) G) (k) (l) 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 72 73 The Optimistic Scenario .......................... : ....................... . The Pessimistic Scenario .................................................. . Five "Realistic" Scenarios .............................................. .. A partnership driven by economics ...................................... . A partnership driven by shared political aims .......................... . Deepening mistrust ........................................................ . Using Russia for geopolitical leverage .................................. .. A n1ixed scenario ........................................................... . 79 80 81 81 82 83 84 84 CHAPTER 2.7 86-151 The First Summit .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. From Good Neighbours to Constructive Partners: 1993-1994 ..........•...•...•.....•....•......••.....•...••.......••.. 100 102 Chinese Analytical Views................................................ Bilateral Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Second Summit......................................................... 103 103 105 From a Constructive Partnership Toward a Strategic Partnership: 1995-1997 ............................................. 2.5.1 2.5.2 2.5.3 2.6 POLITICAL RELATIONS •••••••••••••••••••• 79 .(1.................................................... 2.4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3 2.5 2: 75 Strategic Partnership: Different Views . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 87 Unique Attributes 91 From Soviet-Chinese Relations to Russo-Chinese Relations: 1989-1992 ........ .•..•...•••..•.•••.•..•.•.•...•.•..•.•.•... 93 2.3 .1 2.4 70 71 Alliance Against Whom? ............................................. . The China Debate in Russia .•..•.•........•..•...•..•.•..•.•..•...... The Old Strategic Triangle Through Russian Eyes ........... . Scenarios for Russian-Chinese Interaction .................... . 1. 7.1 1.7.2 1. 7.3 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) 2.1 2.2 2.3 69 69 Econornic reasons ........................................................... . Tempting western arms merchants ...................................... . Developing arms export capabilities ...................................... . Domestic politics ........................................................... . Chinese Assessments................................................... Political Developments .. .. .. ... .. ..... .. ...... .... .. .. .... .. . .. .... . .. The Third Summit . . .. .. .. . .. . .. . . .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. .. . . . . . .. .. .. .. . .. . . . . 108 108 109 110 The Practice and Development of the Russo-Chinese Strategic Partnership: 1997-2000 ................................. 114 2.6.1 2.6.2 2.6.3 2.6.4 2.6.5 116 121 123 127 132 The Fourth Summit: For a Multipolar World........................... Purposes ofthe Strategic Partnership.................................... The Fifth Summit............................................................ The Sixth Summit . .. . .. . . . .. . .. . . .. .. . . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . The Seventh Summit...................................................... Russo-Chinese Relations in the 21st Century ..................... 134 2. 7.1 (a) The Ninth Summit: Treaty of Good Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Vital significance of the Treaty of Good Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 '. ll (i) The Treaty is a milestone-like secular treaty guiding the bilateral relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 (ii) The Treaty has epitomised, summed up and heightened the essential principles and thrust of a range of statements or declarations announced by the Presidents of Russia and China since 1991 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 7 (iii) The Treaty has laid down the principles to be observed and obligations to be fulfilled by both parties in conducting 137 the bilateral relations .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. (iv) The Treaty can serve, in its own way, as a guidance in shaping up the new international political and economic order after the Cold War................................................... 138 (b) Reassessing the Treaty ...................................................... 140 2.7.2 The Tenth Summit......................................................... 142 2. 7.4 The Eleventh Summit ................................................. :.. .. 145 2.8 Contents and Features of the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership··································~·-············ CHAPTER 3.1 3: ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE . . . . . . . 148 152-227 Russia and China in Central Asia: Convergent and t v aews ............... ., ..................................... . . D 1vergen ,~1'" 3.1.1 3.2 Economic Integration and Its Rationale ............................... .. The Euphoria of "Borderlessness": 1991-1993 ...................... .. Barter trade ................................................................. . The Collapse of Cross-Border Cooperations: 1993-1996 ........... . Trade and Economics: 1997-2000 ...................................... . Economic Relations in the 21 51 Century ................................ . Energy cooperation ........................................................ . Investment cooperation .................................................... . Signs of Failure in Economic Relations ................................ . Managed Trade, Divergent Interests ................................... . Migration Dynamics in the RFE ......................................... . The Question of"Demographic Expansion" .......................... . The Search for A New Path ............................................... . CHAPTER 4.2 162 Russia and China in the Russian Far East ....................... . 164 3.2.1 (a) 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.4 (a) (b) 3.2.5 3.2.6 3.2. 7 3.2.8 3.2.9 4.1 155 4: MILITARY RELATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 175 181 186 189 199 207 207 212 215 218 224 228-315 Demilitarisation and Border Demarcation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 4.1.1 4.1.2 228 233 Demilitarisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Border Demarcation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Russian Arms Sales and Chinese Military Modernisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 4.2.1 250 Why China Buys Russian Arms? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -\\I'. 4.3 4.4 Control Over Arms Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252 4.3.1 4.3.2 260 262 The Present Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Russian Explanation...................................................... Major Programmes of Military Cooperation .................. 4.4.1 4.4.2 (a) 4.4.3 4.4.4 4.4.5 4.4.6 4.4.7 4.4.8 4.4.9 4.4.1 0 4.5 4.6 Land Forces .. . .. . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . .. .. . . .. .. . . .. .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 266 Air Force .. . . . . . . . ... ... . . .. .. .. . .. . . .. .. . . . . .. .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . ... . . . 270 Debate on Su-27 licence deal and other arms sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 Navy . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . .. .. . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . 283 Military Technology Transfer . .. .. . . . . .. . . .. .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. 292 Nuclear Technology and Power Plants .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 298 Cooperation in Space Research and Technology .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 300 Outflow of 'Human Military Software' .................................... 302 Learning About Defence Doctrines .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 304 Defence Industry Conversion............................................. 305 The Projected US$20 Billion Arms Deal from 2000 to 2004 . . . . . . . . . 306 Russian Exports Add to China's Military Muscle .-.............. 307 Different Views on Military-Technical Cooperation ............ 310 4.6.1 4.6.2 Russia's Thinking ............................................................ 310 China's Thinking ............................................................ 315 CHAPTER 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5: IMPLICATIONS •••••••••••• 316-339 Bilateral Implications............................................. 316 5.1.1 Chinese Threat? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 18 Regional Im plica tiC~~ns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Global Implications ................................................... Implications for India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Russia, China and India: A Strategic Triangle? . .. .. .. . . .. . . . . 321 327 330 335 CHAPTER 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 263 6: CONCLUSIONS •••••••••••• 340-358 Constraints on a Russian-Chinese Partnership .................. 341 Paradoxes .....................................•.......................... 344 Pragmatic Relationship ..................................... ., .......... 347 Sustainability ................•......•.............••.•..••.•..••......... 349 Prospects for a Stable Equilibrium in Russian-Chinese Relations ..........•..........•.•..........•..•...... 353 BIBLIOGRAPHY ••••••••••••••••••••• II • • • • • • • • • • • 359-408 \V