S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. April 15, 2015 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecom Services Utilities April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com S&P 500 Figure 1. 35 35 S&P 500 LTEG VS STEG (percent) 30 30 LTEG* (10.3) 25 25 STEG* (5.6) 20 20 15 15 10 10 4/9 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 yardeni.com -10 -10 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 2. 30 30 S&P 500 VALUATION 25 25 Forward P/E* (16.8) 20 20 4/9 15 15 10 10 5 1.75 5 1.75 PEG Ratio** (1.6) 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.00 1.00 yardeni.com .75 .75 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** P/E relative to consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 3 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Discretionary Figure 3. 60 60 S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY LTEG VS STEG (percent) STEG capped at 50% 50 50 LTEG* (14.8) 40 40 STEG* (13.1) 30 30 20 20 4/9 10 10 yardeni.com 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 4. 35 35 S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY VALUATION 30 25 30 25 Forward P/E* (18.7) 20 4/9 20 15 15 10 3.0 10 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 Relative P/E** (1.1) PEG Ratio*** (1.3) 2.0 1.5 1.5 4/9 1.0 yardeni.com .5 1.0 .5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 4 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Staples Figure 5. 20 20 S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES LTEG VS STEG (percent) 15 15 10 10 LTEG* (7.6) 5 STEG* (4.6) 4/9 yardeni.com 0 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 6. 30 30 S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES VALUATION 25 20 25 Forward P/E* (19.7) 4/9 15 15 10 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.00 20 10 2.75 2.50 Relative P/E** (1.2) 2.25 PEG Ratio*** (2.6) 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.25 4/9 1.00 1.25 1.00 .75 yardeni.com .50 .75 .50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 5 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Energy Figure 7. 60 50 60 S&P 500 ENERGY LTEG VS STEG (percent) 40 50 40 LTEG* (0.3) STEG* (-39.1) 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 4/9 -40 yardeni.com -50 -40 -50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 8. 35 35 S&P 500 ENERGY VALUATION 30 30 4/9 25 20 Forward P/E* (26.8) 25 20 15 15 10 10 5 3.5 5 3.5 Relative P/E capped at 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.0 Relative P/E** (1.6) PEG Ratio*** (3.0) 2.5 2.0 2.0 4/9 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 yardeni.com .5 .5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 6 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Financials Figure 9. 60 55 60 S&P 500 FINANCIALS LTEG VS STEG (percent) 55 STEG capped at 50% 50 50 45 45 40 LTEG* (11.7) 40 35 STEG* (13.7) 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 4/9 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 yardeni.com -10 -10 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 10. 20 15 20 S&P 500 FINANCIALS VALUATION Forward P/E* (13.9) 4/9 15 10 10 5 2.5 5 2.5 2.0 2.0 Relative P/E** (0.8) 1.5 1.5 PEG Ratio*** (1.2) 1.0 1.0 4/9 yardeni.com .5 .5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 7 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Health Care Figure 11. 20 20 S&P 500 HEALTH CARE LTEG VS STEG (percent) 15 15 10 4/9 10 LTEG* (10.9) STEG* (9.6) 5 5 yardeni.com 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 12. 35 35 S&P 500 HEALTH CARE VALUATION 30 30 25 25 20 20 4/9 15 10 15 Forward P/E* (17.5) 10 5 2.00 5 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 4/9 1.00 1.00 Relative P/E** (1.0) .75 PEG Ratio*** (1.6) .50 .75 yardeni.com .50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 8 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Industrials Figure 13. 25 25 S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS LTEG VS STEG (percent) 20 20 15 15 10 4/9 LTEG* (10.7) 5 10 5 STEG* (9.4) 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 yardeni.com -20 -20 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 14. 25 25 S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS VALUATION 20 20 4/9 15 10 Forward P/E* (15.4) 15 10 5 2.00 5 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.00 .75 Relative P/E** (0.9) 4/9 .75 PEG Ratio*** (1.4) yardeni.com .50 1.00 .50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 9 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Information Technology Figure 15. 60 60 S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTEG VS STEG (percent) 50 50 LTEG* (12.2) STEG* (10.2) 40 40 30 30 20 20 4/9 10 0 10 0 yardeni.com -10 -10 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 16. 60 60 S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY VALUATION 50 40 50 Forward P/E* (15.7) 40 30 30 20 4/9 20 10 10 0 3.0 0 3.0 Relative P/E** (0.9) 2.5 2.5 PEG Ratio*** (1.3) 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 4/9 yardeni.com .5 1.0 .5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 10 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Materials Figure 17. 60 50 60 S&P 500 MATERIALS LTEG VS STEG STEG capped at 50% (percent) 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 4/9 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 LTEG* (10.9) -30 -30 STEG* (8.0) -40 -40 yardeni.com -50 -50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 18. 30 25 30 S&P 500 MATERIALS VALUATION Forward P/E* (16.9) 25 20 20 4/9 15 15 10 10 5 3.0 5 3.0 2.5 Relative P/E** (1.0) 2.5 PEG Ratio*** (1.5) 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 4/9 1.0 .5 1.0 .5 yardeni.com .0 .0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 11 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Telecom Services Figure 19. 30 25 30 S&P 500 TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES LTEG VS STEG (percent) 25 LTEG* (6.0) 20 20 STEG* (4.7) 15 15 10 10 4/9 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 yardeni.com -20 -20 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 20. 35 35 S&P 500 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES VALUATION 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 10 4/9 15 10 Forward P/E* (13.5) 5 5 5 5 4 Relative P/E** (0.8) 4 3 PEG Ratio*** (2.2) 3 2 2 1 4/9 yardeni.com 0 1 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 12 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Utilities Figure 21. 20 20 S&P 500 UTILITIES LTEG VS STEG (percent) 15 15 10 10 5 5 4/9 0 0 LTEG* (5.1) STEG* (1.9) -5 -5 yardeni.com -10 -10 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 22. 20 20 S&P 500 UTILITIES VALUATION 4/9 15 15 10 10 Forward P/E* (16.4) 5 9 5 9 8 8 7 Relative P/E** (1.0) 7 6 PEG Ratio*** (3.2) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 4/9 yardeni.com 1 0 1 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 13 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2015. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. 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