S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues,
& Valuation:
Growth Rates & PEGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
April 15, 2015
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
[email protected]
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
[email protected]
Please visit our sites at
www.yardeni.com
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thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
S&P 500
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Information Technology
Materials
Telecom Services
Utilities
April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
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S&P 500
Figure 1.
35
35
S&P 500 LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
30
30
LTEG* (10.3)
25
25
STEG* (5.6)
20
20
15
15
10
10
4/9
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
yardeni.com
-10
-10
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 2.
30
30
S&P 500 VALUATION
25
25
Forward P/E* (16.8)
20
20
4/9
15
15
10
10
5
1.75
5
1.75
PEG Ratio** (1.6)
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
yardeni.com
.75
.75
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** P/E relative to consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 3 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
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Consumer Discretionary
Figure 3.
60
60
S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
STEG capped at 50%
50
50
LTEG* (14.8)
40
40
STEG* (13.1)
30
30
20
20
4/9
10
10
yardeni.com
0
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 4.
35
35
S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY VALUATION
30
25
30
25
Forward P/E* (18.7)
20
4/9
20
15
15
10
3.0
10
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.5
Relative P/E** (1.1)
PEG Ratio*** (1.3)
2.0
1.5
1.5
4/9
1.0
yardeni.com
.5
1.0
.5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 4 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
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Consumer Staples
Figure 5.
20
20
S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
15
15
10
10
LTEG* (7.6)
5
STEG* (4.6)
4/9
yardeni.com
0
5
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 6.
30
30
S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES VALUATION
25
20
25
Forward P/E* (19.7)
4/9
15
15
10
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
20
10
2.75
2.50
Relative P/E** (1.2)
2.25
PEG Ratio*** (2.6)
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
1.25
4/9
1.00
1.25
1.00
.75
yardeni.com
.50
.75
.50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 5 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Energy
Figure 7.
60
50
60
S&P 500 ENERGY LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
40
50
40
LTEG* (0.3)
STEG* (-39.1)
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
4/9
-40
yardeni.com
-50
-40
-50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 8.
35
35
S&P 500 ENERGY VALUATION
30
30
4/9
25
20
Forward P/E* (26.8)
25
20
15
15
10
10
5
3.5
5
3.5
Relative P/E capped at 3.0
3.0
2.5
3.0
Relative P/E** (1.6)
PEG Ratio*** (3.0)
2.5
2.0
2.0
4/9
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.0
yardeni.com
.5
.5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 6 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Financials
Figure 9.
60
55
60
S&P 500 FINANCIALS LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
55
STEG capped at 50%
50
50
45
45
40
LTEG* (11.7)
40
35
STEG* (13.7)
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
4/9
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
yardeni.com
-10
-10
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 10.
20
15
20
S&P 500 FINANCIALS VALUATION
Forward P/E* (13.9)
4/9
15
10
10
5
2.5
5
2.5
2.0
2.0
Relative P/E** (0.8)
1.5
1.5
PEG Ratio*** (1.2)
1.0
1.0
4/9
yardeni.com
.5
.5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 7 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Health Care
Figure 11.
20
20
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
15
15
10
4/9
10
LTEG* (10.9)
STEG* (9.6)
5
5
yardeni.com
0
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 12.
35
35
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE VALUATION
30
30
25
25
20
20
4/9
15
10
15
Forward P/E* (17.5)
10
5
2.00
5
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.25
4/9
1.00
1.00
Relative P/E** (1.0)
.75
PEG Ratio*** (1.6)
.50
.75
yardeni.com
.50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 8 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Industrials
Figure 13.
25
25
S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
20
20
15
15
10
4/9
LTEG* (10.7)
5
10
5
STEG* (9.4)
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
yardeni.com
-20
-20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 14.
25
25
S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS VALUATION
20
20
4/9
15
10
Forward P/E* (15.4)
15
10
5
2.00
5
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.25
1.00
.75
Relative P/E** (0.9)
4/9
.75
PEG Ratio*** (1.4)
yardeni.com
.50
1.00
.50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 9 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Information Technology
Figure 15.
60
60
S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
50
50
LTEG* (12.2)
STEG* (10.2)
40
40
30
30
20
20
4/9
10
0
10
0
yardeni.com
-10
-10
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 16.
60
60
S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY VALUATION
50
40
50
Forward P/E* (15.7)
40
30
30
20
4/9
20
10
10
0
3.0
0
3.0
Relative P/E** (0.9)
2.5
2.5
PEG Ratio*** (1.3)
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
4/9
yardeni.com
.5
1.0
.5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 10 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Materials
Figure 17.
60
50
60
S&P 500 MATERIALS LTEG VS STEG
STEG capped at 50%
(percent)
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
4/9
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
LTEG* (10.9)
-30
-30
STEG* (8.0)
-40
-40
yardeni.com
-50
-50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 18.
30
25
30
S&P 500 MATERIALS VALUATION
Forward P/E* (16.9)
25
20
20
4/9
15
15
10
10
5
3.0
5
3.0
2.5
Relative P/E** (1.0)
2.5
PEG Ratio*** (1.5)
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
4/9
1.0
.5
1.0
.5
yardeni.com
.0
.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 11 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Telecom Services
Figure 19.
30
25
30
S&P 500 TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
25
LTEG* (6.0)
20
20
STEG* (4.7)
15
15
10
10
4/9
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
yardeni.com
-20
-20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 20.
35
35
S&P 500 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES VALUATION
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
10
4/9
15
10
Forward P/E* (13.5)
5
5
5
5
4
Relative P/E** (0.8)
4
3
PEG Ratio*** (2.2)
3
2
2
1
4/9
yardeni.com
0
1
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 12 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Utilities
Figure 21.
20
20
S&P 500 UTILITIES LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
15
15
10
10
5
5
4/9
0
0
LTEG* (5.1)
STEG* (1.9)
-5
-5
yardeni.com
-10
-10
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data
through 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 22.
20
20
S&P 500 UTILITIES VALUATION
4/9
15
15
10
10
Forward P/E* (16.4)
5
9
5
9
8
8
7
Relative P/E** (1.0)
7
6
PEG Ratio*** (3.2)
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
4/9
yardeni.com
1
0
1
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 13 / April 15, 2015 / S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: Growth Rates & PEGs
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