Global Economic Briefing: Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. October 14, 2014 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table Of Contents World Industrial Production OECD Industrial Production G7 Industrial Production EM Industrial Production European Industrial Production EM Industrial Production October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production 1-2 3 4 5-6 7-8 9-10 Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com World Industrial Production Figure 1. 130 130 WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) Jul (2005=100, swda, ratio scale) 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 yardeni.com 70 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 70 15 Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Figure 2. 180 170 160 WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) 180 170 160 Jul (2005=100, swda,* ratio scale) 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 Advanced Economies 70 60 Emerging Economies 60 yardeni.com 50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 50 15 * Seasonally and working day adjusted. Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Page 1 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com World Industrial Production Figure 3. 15 15 WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (yearly percent change) 10 10 5 5 Jul 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 yardeni.com -15 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 -15 15 Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Figure 4. 20 20 WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (yearly percent change) 10 10 Jul 0 0 Advanced Economies (2.5) -10 -10 Emerging Economies (4.3) yardeni.com -20 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 -20 15 Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Page 2 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com OECD Industrial Production Figure 5. 145 140 145 OECD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1995=100) 140 Jul 135 135 130 130 125 125 120 120 115 115 110 110 105 105 100 100 yardeni.com 95 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 95 15 Source: OECD. Figure 6. 14 12 14 OECD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 12 (yearly percent change) 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 Jul 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 -10 -10 -12 -12 -14 -14 -16 -16 yardeni.com -18 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 -18 15 Source: OECD. Page 3 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com G7 Industrial Production Figure 7. 108 100 UNITED STATES (2002=100) 115 EURO ZONE 17 Aug 110 (2005=100) 105 92 100 Aug 95 84 90 76 85 68 80 60 75 91 110 100 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 CANADA 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 115 GERMANY (2002=100) 110 (2005=100) Jul 105 Aug 100 90 95 80 90 85 70 80 60 75 91 120 115 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 91 93 95 UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE (2003=100) (2010=100) 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 125 120 115 110 110 105 105 100 Aug 100 Aug 95 95 90 90 91 120 115 110 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 130 JAPAN ITALY (2005=100) (2010=100) 120 105 110 100 Aug 95 100 90 Aug 85 90 80 80 75 yardeni.com 70 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 91 93 95 70 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 4 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com EM Industrial Production Figure 8. 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 CHINA: VALUE ADDED (2005=100, sa) 125 Aug (2000=100, sa) 115 105 95 85 75 65 55 98 200 135 PHILIPPINES Aug 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 INDIA 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 135 SINGAPORE (FY04=100) (2011=100) Aug 115 Aug 150 95 75 100 55 50 35 98 130 120 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 INDONESIA 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 120 SOUTH KOREA (2010=100, sa) Aug (2005=100) Aug 100 110 100 80 90 60 80 40 70 60 20 98 145 125 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 MALAYSIA 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 16 110 Aug TAIWAN (2005=100, sa) 14 (2011=100) 100 Aug 90 105 80 85 70 65 60 yardeni.com 45 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 50 16 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 5 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com EM Industrial Production Figure 9. 225 200 THAILAND CZECH REPUBLIC (2000=100) (2005=100) 175 125 Aug 100 Aug 150 125 75 100 75 50 00 110 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 00 02 BRAZIL HUNGARY (2012=100) (2005=100) 100 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 130 110 Aug Aug 90 90 80 70 70 50 00 110 105 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 MEXICO 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 120 RUSSIA (2008=100) (2002=100) Aug Aug 100 100 95 80 90 85 60 00 140 130 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 00 02 BULGARIA POLAND (2005=100) (2005=100) 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 120 Aug 120 100 110 Aug 100 80 90 80 60 70 60 yardeni.com 50 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 40 16 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 6 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com European Industrial Production Figure3.10. Figure 120 120 EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 110 110 100 100 90 90 Eurozone (Aug=94.6) 80 80 Germany (Aug=106.0) France (Aug=87.6) Italy (Aug=80.2) 70 70 Spain (Aug=74.2) yardeni.com 60 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 60 2015 Source: Haver Analytics. Figure 11. 135 135 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: EURO ZONE (January 2010=100) 125 125 115 115 105 105 95 95 Greece (Aug=72.0) 85 85 Portugal (Aug=90.1) Ireland (Aug=113.3) 75 75 yardeni.com 65 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 65 2015 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 7 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com European Industrial Production Figure 12. 120 120 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (January 2006=100) 110 110 100 100 90 90 Sweden (Aug=82.5) Denmark (Aug=86.4) Finland (Aug=85.2) 80 80 Netherlands (Aug=106.1) yardeni.com 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 70 2015 Source: Haver Analytics. Figure 13. 120 120 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (January 2006=100) 110 110 Aug 100 100 90 90 United Kingdom (90.3) Germany (106.0) France (87.6) Italy (80.2) Spain (73.8) EU-27 (95.8) 80 80 yardeni.com 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 70 2015 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 8 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com EM Industrial Production Figure 14. 200 200 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 175 Aug 150 175 150 India (FY04=100) ( (Aug=173.2) 125 125 Malaysia (2005=100, sa) ( (Aug=123.3) 100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Haver Analytics. Figure 15. 125 125 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (sa) Aug 100 100 Singapore (2011=100) (Aug=105.2) South Korea (2010=100) (Aug=106.5) Taiwan (2011=100) (Aug=108.1) 75 75 50 50 yardeni.com 25 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 25 2015 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 9 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com EM Industrial Production Figure 16. 110 110 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (sa) 100 Aug Brazil (2002=100) ( (Aug=98.9) 100 Mexico (2008=100) ( (Aug=105.9) 90 90 80 80 yardeni.com 70 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 70 2015 Source: Haver Analytics. Page 10 / October 14, 2014 / Global Industrial Production Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. 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