1. real estate

Vol. 8, Issue 2 | April 2015
BEACHAM
Your Housing Market Update From
The Best People in Atlanta Real Estate™
Insider
One Buckhead Plaza
3060 Peachtree Road
Suite 100
Atlanta, GA 30305
404.261.6300
www.beacham.com
Atlanta home sales surge higher in March;
Beacham & Company sales up 88%
ATLANTA – Atlanta home sales surged in March after Housing inventory remains a critical component to
being stuck in neutral for the first two months of the year. the health and sustainability of the market but is still
According to the local MLS, the number of homes sold in stubbornly low in areas of high demand such as Buckhead,
Morningside, East Cobb and North Fulton.
March was up 20.8% from March 2014.
“It was the first time
That marked the best performance in
in recent memory that “We are encouraging sellers who are thinking
percentage terms for Atlanta home sales
the number of sales about moving not to wait to put their homes
in recent memory and the best March in
on the market, because May is the best year
increased by a greater
number of sales since March 2011.
of the month to sell a home,” Carver said.
percentage than the
The average home sales price rose by a average sales price.” “Also, waiting to sell could prove costly.”
There are a number of factors that could
rate of 5.5% to $277,300 compared to
make 2016 a much tougher year for buyers
$262,885 last March. It was also the first
time in recent memory that the percentage increase in and sellers alike:
home sales was greater than the percentage increase in • A majority of economists say interest rates will rise in
the average home sales price.
September – an interest rate increase coupled with strong
home price appreciation has the effect of reducing the
For its part, Beacham & Company, REALTORS®
buyer pool from the top of the mortgage market down
outperformed the suddenly red-hot market again in March.
Beacham sales were up 88% compared to March 2014. • We are more than 18 months overdue for a stock market
correction – an event that historically has a negative impact
“Our success this year is the direct result of our agents
on the real estate market – particularly the high end
getting new listings on the market early in the year ahead
of the competition,” said Dac Carver, Vice President and • Next year is a major election year – another occurrence
Managing Broker for Beacham & Company.
that is not historically favorable to high-end real estate.
ATLANTA’S FASTEST GROWING
REAL ESTATE FIRM
105
100
Last 12 Months Ending 3/31/2015
1st Quarter 2015 vs. 1st Quarter 2014*
95
90
85
+81.9%
+84.2%
$5 M
75
$4.5 M
DOLLAR AMOUNT SOLD PER AGENT
80
70
65
PERCENT CHANGE
ATLANTA’S TOP SELLING AGENTS
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
+21.2%
+18.1%
20
+14.4%
15
+7.2%
10
0
Units Sold
-5
-10
Dollar
Volume
Sold
Beacham & Company,
REALTORS®
Units Sold
Dollar
Volume
Sold
Dorsey Alston,
REALTORS®
Units Sold
Dollar
Volume
Sold
Atlanta Fine
Homes/Sotheby’s
International Realty
$4.25 M
$4 M
+.02%
– 4.1%
Dollar
Volume
Sold
Harry Norman,
REALTORS®
Factoid
There have been seven
home sales in Atlanta
of $3 million or more in
the first three months of
2015 – all in Buckhead.
That’s the most since
seven were sold in the
first quarter of 2011.
$4,448,884
$4,001,685
$3.75 M
$3.5 M
Trending
$3.25 M
$3 M
$2.75 M
$2,678,237
$2,492,288
$2.5 M
$2.25 M
$1,992,502
$2 M
$1,187,379
$1.75 M
$1.5 M
$1.25 M
Units Sold
ATLANTA REAL
ESTATE’S SOCIAL
MEDIA LEADER
Follow us on
Facebook and
Instagram! (see
details on page 3)
$1 M
$0 M
Beacham & Atlanta Fine
Dorsey
Company,
Homes/
Alston,
REALTORS® Sotheby’s REALTORS®
International
Realty
Harry
Norman,
REALTORS®
Keller
Williams
Realty–
PEACHTREE
ROAD
Berkshire
Hathaway
Home
Services
Georgia
Properties
Condo sales continue
to outperform single
family detached home
sales. Sales of condos
were up 15% in the first
quarter of 2015 (37%
among the Beacham
Bellwethers – see page
4) while single family
detached home sales
were up just 8%.
*Among companies with $100 million in sales volume in Q1 2015. Single family detached and condo sales
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®
®
If your home is currently listed for sale, this newsletter is not intended as a solicitation of your business.
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available in
Apple Store
Economist tells Beacham & Company that keys to
housing recovery are Millennials, home building
ATLANTA – The Millennial generation,
consisting of individuals born between
1982-2000, along with commercial
lenders and home builders, hold the key
to a complete recovery in the Atlanta
housing market according to Rajeev
Dhawan, director of the Economic
Forecasting Center at Georgia State
University.
Dhawan, who spoke to a companywide meeting of Beacham & Company,
REALTORS® in March at the firm’s
Buckhead offices, would not predict
when these forces would come together
to move the housing market closer to
full recovery, but he offered a clue as to
when Millennials – already recognized by the National Association
of REALTORS® as the largest segment of eligible home buyers –
might enter the housing market en masse.
“Millennials are timing the market, waiting for interest rates to rise,”
Dhawan said. “Every time an economist says interest rates will rise,
they don’t.” However, Dhawan predicted there is a better than 50
percent chance interest rates will rise by September of this year and
will rise one percent in 2016 and again in 2017.
Dhawan also said commercial lenders and home builders are
critical to the recovery. More than half of the multi-family residential
projects announced for the housing darling of Millennials – Midtown
– have not received financing and the projects that have are mostly
apartments. He also lamented the still muted return of home
building, noting that Atlanta housing permits are still just 15 percent
of what they were in the mid-2000s. One of the challenges is that
the small-to-medium sized single family home builders are “gone,”
he said. “And (production) builders won’t
build any more houses than they are
already building.”
Dhawan’s comments echoed those of
another economist, Lawrence Yun of
the National Association of REALTORS®,
who called for loosening of credit
standards for homebuilders in The Wall
Street Journal the same day. Yun told the
Journal that, “exempting smaller lenders
from new mortgage rules could help
revive home building activity and boost
the overall housing market.”
Due to Beacham & Company’s specialty in
luxury real estate, Dhawan also addressed
the current state of high-end home sales. He said the demand for
properties priced between $500,000 and $1 million is much more
tied to U.S. stocks than a decade ago. Further complicating matters,
the factors influencing the stock market have shifted from domestic
to international. For example, a series of events principally involving
Russia, the European Union and China over the last year or more has
made the U.S. stock market the darling of world capital, he said. The
result has been a tripling in value of U.S. stocks from 2009 and more
optimistic buyers of luxury real estate.
Dhawan, fresh off a presentation to the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation in Washington, DC yesterday, said he feels good about
Georgia’s economy because it is being lifted by strong consumer
confidence, job growth in the catalyst sectors, and a construction
boost from “mega” projects such as the new Braves stadium. He
said potential trouble spots for the world’s economy are the banking
sector in Europe and China’s inability to jump start its economy.
The Spring issue is here!
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us at [email protected]
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starts here with the
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homebuyers in 2014 were
from outside the U.S.
Mike Fitzmeyer
678.458.5901
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678.468.4432
[email protected]
404.504.8700
www.beacham.com • 404.261.6300
2
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404.261.8942
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Sellers, the Time To List Your
Home Is Now
W
hen you decide it’s time to sell your home, there are several factors to take into
consideration for the best possible results. Working with a professional real
estate team and making sure your house is ready for the market without pending
inspections or repairs are obvious suggestions for success. Timing is also important
when it comes to making the most out of your investment.
Data gathered by ShowingTime is proof that early spring is the best time to sell.
ShowingTime is used by many of the nation’s top real estate firms to schedule online
property showings on their websites. The web-based software has steadily tracked
request activity on these websites since 2001. What they found through the years:
April and May are the peak months for property showings. As you would expect,
closings peak either in June and July - roughly 60 days after showing activity peaks
according to the National Association of Realtors.
• New listings and open houses
• Significant sales of $1 million or more
• Design trends and special
listing photos
• Blog posts about real
estate-related topics
• Community news about new restaurants,
shops and real estate projects
Upcoming this month on
the Beacham.com/ blog:
Data gathered from the Atlanta MLS confirms this theory along with another key
point: Average home sales prices peak in June and July as a result of the frenzied
nature of the market in April and May. The accompanying chart traces the average
sales price in Atlanta between 2006 and 2014. June and July are consistently the
peak for sales prices.
The moral of the story is clear: According to three major industry leaders in real
estate data aggregation, June and July deliver the highest results in terms of
both the chances that your home will be purchased quickly and that it will fetch
a higher overall sales price. Sellers must be on the market by April or May to take
full advantage of this seasonal spike in real estate prices. Contact us today to get
started!
METRO ATLANTA
Average Monthly Sales Price – in Thousands – Residential Detached
Average Monthly Sales Price – Residential Detached
PRICES
GOING UP
PRICES
GOING DOWN
$280,256
$270,256
$260,256
$250,256
2007
$240,256
2008
$230,256
2009
$220,256
2010
$210,256
2011
$200,256
2012
$190,256
2013
$180,256
2014
$170,256
2015
• Kitchen designs that are selling right now
• How to strengthen your bid in multiple
offer situations
• Atlanta’s hip Westside district
$160,256
$150,256
FEB. MAR. APR.
MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT.
}
JAN.
NOV. DEC.
Average decline = 10% between June/July and September
EVERY YEAR, THE AVERAGE
HOME SALES PRICE IN ATLANTA
PEAKS IN JUNE OR JULY
3
Kitchen designs that are selling right now is one of
the topics on this month’s Beacham blog
BEACHAM BELLWETHERS
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
01/01/15 - 03/31/15 VS. 01/01/14 - 03/31/14
2015 Sales
2014 Sales
Diff.
BUCKHEAD (CITY OF ATLANTA, FULTON COUNTY)
Buckhead East - Garden Hills/Peachtree Park/Piedmont Heights-East/Garden Hills Elementary School (30305)
22
18
4
Buckhead Central - Argonne Forest, Haynes Manor, Piedmont Heights-West/E. Rivers Elementary (30305)
21
11
10
Buckhead North - Chastain Park/Tuxedo Park/Mt. Paran Road/Warren T. Jackson Elementary School (30327)
18
18
0
Buckhead Northeast - East of Roswell Road/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30342)
22
12
10
Buckhead Northwest - West of I-75/Ridgewood/Rivermead/Garraux/Cloudland/Warren T. Jackson Elementary School (30327)
2
1
1
Buckhead South - Ardmore Park/Brookwood Hills/Collier Hills/Loring Heights/Peachtree Hills/E. Rivers Elementary School (30309 north of the Brookwood split)
12
14
-2
Buckhead West - Castlewood/Hanover West/Ridgewood Heights/Memorial Park/Springlake/Wildwood/Morris Brandon Elementary (30327)
13
16
-3
ATLANTA INTOWN (CITY OF ATLANTA, FULTON AND DEKALB COUNTIES)
Ansley Park/Midtown/Sherwood Forest/south and east of the Brookwood split/Morningside Elementary School (30309)
6
14
-8
Morningside-Virginia Highlands/Morningside Elementary School (30306)
23
32
-9
ATLANTA (DEKALB COUNTY AND FULTON COUNTY - ATLANTA ADDRESSES BUT EITHER IN UNINCORPORATED AREA OR PART OF ANOTHER CITY)
Ashford Park/Ashford Park Elementary School (30319, 30341)
57
76
-19
Historic Brookhaven/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30319)
10
9
1
Pine Hills/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30324)
6
8
-2
Decatur-DeKalb County/Briarcliff/Oak Grove Elementary (parts of 30033, 30345)
8
7
1
Decatur-City/Clairemont-Westchester-Winona Park Elementary (30030)
18
27
-9
Druid Hills/Briarvista/Emory Village/CDC/Fernbank Elementary (30307, 30030, 30033)
13
23
-10
Dunwoody - Austin, Kingsley and Vanderlyn Elementary Schools (30338, 30350)
62
51
11
North Atlanta - High Point/Lynwood Park/Murphy-Candler Park/Peachtree Golf Club/ High Point Elementary School (30342, 30319)
39
32
7
EAST COBB COUNTY (MARIETTA/ROSWELL)
East Cobb/Marietta - Walton High School (30068)
48
53
-5
East Cobb/Marietta - Pope High School (30062)
86
64
22
SANDY SPRINGS (CITY OF SANDY SPRINGS, FULTON COUNTY)
Sandy Springs (Atlanta address) - South of I-285 & West of Roswell Road/Heards Ferry Elementary/Riverwood High School (30327, 30342)
24
25
-1
Sandy Springs - North of I-285 / Heards Ferry Elementary-Riverwood High School (30328)
25
11
14
SMYRNA/VININGS - COBB COUNTY
Smyrna/Nickajack Elementary (30080)
24
23
1
Historic Vinings/Teasley Elementary School (30339)
8
12
-4
NORTH FULTON COUNTY
Alpharetta West of GA-400 (30004, 30009)
92
86
6
Alpharetta East of GA-400/Windward (30005, 30022, 30076)
183
142
41
Johns Creek (30022, 30097)
74
97
-23
Milton (30004)
60
51
9
Roswell - East and West of GA-400 (30075, 30076, 30077)
219
211
8
BEACHAM BELLWETHER TOTALS
1,195
1,144
51
FMLS TOTALS (Cobb, Dekalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett)
7,669
7,231
438
2015 Avg. Sale $ 2014 Avg. Sale $
Diff.
BUCKHEAD (CITY OF ATLANTA, FULTON COUNTY)
Buckhead East - Garden Hills/Peachtree Park/Piedmont Heights-East/Garden Hills Elementary School (30305)
$774,919
$705,883
$69,036
Buckhead Central - Argonne Forest, Haynes Manor, Piedmont Heights-West/E. Rivers Elementary (30305)
$669,118
$613,682
$55,436
Buckhead North - Chastain Park/Tuxedo Park/Mt. Paran Road/Warren T. Jackson Elementary School (30327)
$1,468,111
$993,265
$474,846
Buckhead Northeast - East of Roswell Road/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30342)
$806,995
$764,955
$42,040
Buckhead Northwest - West of I-75/Ridgewood/Rivermead/Garraux/Cloudland/Warren T. Jackson Elementary School (30327)
$3,357,250
$108,000 $3,249,250
Buckhead South - Ardmore Park/Brookwood Hills/Collier Hills/Loring Heights/Peachtree Hills/E. Rivers Elementary School (30309 north of the Brookwood split) $839,000
$629,929
$209,071
Buckhead West - Castlewood/Hanover West/Ridgewood Heights/Memorial Park/Springlake/Wildwood/Morris Brandon Elementary (30327)
$804,419
$931,804 $(127,385)
ATLANTA INTOWN (CITY OF ATLANTA, FULTON AND DEKALB COUNTIES)
Ansley Park/Midtown/Sherwood Forest/south and east of the Brookwood split/Morningside Elementary School (30309)
$867,333 $1,115,191 $(247,858)
Morningside-Virginia Highlands/Morningside Elementary School (30306)
$742,935
$802,095
$(59,160)
ATLANTA (DEKALB COUNTY AND FULTON COUNTY - ATLANTA ADDRESSES BUT EITHER IN UNINCORPORATED AREA OR PART OF ANOTHER CITY)
Ashford Park/Ashford Park Elementary School (30319, 30341)
$504,292
$424,105
$80,187
Historic Brookhaven/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30319)
$1,352,933 $1,135,111
$217,822
Pine Hills/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30324)
$666,669
$472,906
$193,763
Decatur-DeKalb County/Briarcliff/Oak Grove Elementary (parts of 30033, 30345)
$500,955
$371,288
$129,667
Decatur-City/Clairemont-Westchester-Winona Park Elementary (30030)
$499,000
$526,956
$(27,956)
Druid Hills/Briarvista/Emory Village/CDC/Fernbank Elementary (30307, 30030, 30033)
$607,915
$519,165
$88,750
Dunwoody - Austin, Kingsley and Vanderlyn Elementary Schools (30338, 30350)
$425,586
$398,098
$27,488
North Atlanta - High Point/Lynwood Park/Murphy-Candler Park/Peachtree Golf Club/ High Point Elementary School (30342, 30319)
$673,834
$534,190
$139,644
EAST COBB COUNTY (MARIETTA/ROSWELL)
East Cobb/Marietta - Walton High School (30068)
$543,920
$433,969
$109,951
East Cobb/Marietta - Pope High School (30062)
$375,377
$335,543
$39,834
SANDY SPRINGS (CITY OF SANDY SPRINGS, FULTON COUNTY)
Sandy Springs (Atlanta address) - South of I-285 & West of Roswell Road/Heards Ferry Elementary/Riverwood High School (30327, 30342)
$1,285,213 $1,086,570
$198,643
Sandy Springs - North of I-285 / Heards Ferry Elementary-Riverwood High School (30328)
$703,244
$706,864
$(3,620)
SMYRNA/VININGS - COBB COUNTY
Smyrna/Nickajack Elementary (30080)
$406,500
$409,294
$(2,794)
Historic Vinings/Teasley Elementary School (30339)
$1,043,875 $1,091,333
$(47,458)
NORTH FULTON COUNTY
Alpharetta West of GA-400 (30004, 30009)
$374,122
$399,272
$(25,150)
Alpharetta East of GA-400/Windward (30005, 30022, 30076)
$412,300
$405,701
$6,599
Johns Creek (30022, 30097)
$448,063
$458,837
$(10,774)
Milton (30004)
$640,501
$658,467
$(17,966)
Roswell - East and West of GA-400 (30075, 30076, 30077)
$364,053
$367,290
$(3,237)
BEACHAM BELLWETHER TOTALS
$525,238
$501,298
$23,940
FMLS TOTALS (Cobb, Dekalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett)
$285,892
$261,876
$24,016
CONDOMINIUM SALES
Buckhead Village/Central Buckhead (30305)
Buckhead East of I-75 & South of Peachtree Creek (30309)
Buckhead East of I-75 and North of Buckhead Village (30327)
City of Decatur (30030)
Midtown (30309)
Perimeter/Sandy Springs (30328)
Smyrna (30080)
Historic Vinings (30339)
Westside/Atlantic Station/Home Park/Georgia Tech (30313, 30318, 30363)
BEACHAM BELLWETHER TOTALS
FMLS TOTALS (Cobb, DeKalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett)
% Change
22%
91%
0%
83%
100%
-14%
-19%
-57%
-28%
-25%
11%
-25%
14%
-33%
-43%
22%
22%
-9%
34%
-4%
127%
4%
-33%
7%
29%
-24%
18%
4%
4%
6%
% Change
10%
9%
48%
5%
3009%
33%
-14%
-22%
-7%
19%
19%
41%
35%
-5%
17%
7%
26%
25%
12%
18%
-1%
-1%
-4%
-6%
2%
-2%
-3%
-1%
5%
8%
01/01/15 - 03/31/15 VS. 01/01/14 - 03/31/14
2015 Sales
85
48
12
30
117
108
67
50
89
606
2,430
2014 Sales
91
27
11
22
27
92
80
42
50
442
2,113
Diff.
-6
21
1
8
90
16
-13
8
39
164
317
% Change
-7%
78%
9%
36%
333%
17%
-16%
19%
78%
37%
15%
2014 Avg. Sale $
$431,860
$294,258
$399,000
$227,478
$294,258
$217,319
$204,648
$285,757
$234,287
$312,703
$211,125
2013 Avg.
Sale $
$352,471
$259,075
$348,355
$189,602
$268,002
$195,842
$173,469
$366,519
$189,834
$315,264
$194,831
www.beacham.com • 404.261.6300
4
Diff.
$79,389
$35,183
$50,645
$37,876
$26,256
$21,477
$31,179
$(80,762)
$44,453
$(2,561)
$16,294
% Change
23%
14%
15%
20%
10%
11%
18%
-22%
23%
-1%
8%
ABOUT THE
BELLWETHERS
The accompanying
statistical grid labeled
“Beacham Bellwethers”
is a tracking index
devised by Beacham &
Company to chart the
sales activity of metro
Atlanta’s most popular
neighborhoods (by highly
desirable school districts)
and to compare their
sales activity to the metro
area as a whole. The
term “bellwether”is used
to describe something
that serves to create
or influence trends
or to presage future
happenings. In the stock
market, a bellwether is the
stock of a company that
is regarded as a leader
in its given industry.
The performance of a
bellwether stock is said to
reflect the performance
of the industry in general.
For the most part, we
compare sales data
year-over-year instead
of month-to-month
because the real estate
market experiences
seasonal fluctuations that
make month-to-month
comparisons misleading.
For instance, June is the
busiest closing month of
the year but February is
traditionally one of the
slowest. By comparing
productivity from the
same month a year
earlier, a more accurate
measure of the health of
the housing market can
be obtained.
Top Performing Markets