Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis MARCH 18-20, 2015 GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY MARVIN CENTER, WASHINGTON, D.C. TABLE OF CONTENTS Sponsors...................................................................................................................2 Welcome Letter........................................................................................................5 2015 Organizational Affiliates................................................................................6 Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis Overview..........................................................8 SBCA Membership...................................................................................................9 Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis Overview..........................................................10 Conference Schedule – Overview........................................................................13 Conference Schedule – Detailed..........................................................................17 Conference Logistics..............................................................................................25 Marvin Center Floor Plan.......................................................................................26 Milken Floor Plan....................................................................................................27 Primary conference support is provided by: The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation is pleased to support the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis as it works to advance the theory and application of benefit-cost analysis in the development of policy. Information about MacArthur’s work in Policy Research, including its Power of Measuring Social Benefits initiative, can be found at www.macfound.org/policy_research. 2 Advancing the Policy Frontier CONFERENCE SPONSORS Additional support is provided by: Thank you to our founding institution: Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 3 WHEN NUMBERS COUNT… For your regulatory development, economic, statistical, and risk analysis needs n Regulatory Development Support n Risk and Uncertainty Analyses n Benefit-Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses n Survey Research and OMB Clearance Packages n Statistics, Econometrics, and Forecasting n Health and Safety Valuation and Data Analysis For details, contact Cyrus Baghelai, President/CEO: (301) 657-9883 or www.EconometricaInc.com 4 Advancing the Policy Frontier WELCOME Dear friends and colleagues, Welcome to the 2015 Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis Annual Conference and Meeting! We have 40 excellent sessions planned and look forward to exploring many important and interesting issues. The Society continues to flourish and grow thanks to your support. In addition to the panels, we have many exciting events, including receptions on Wednesday through Friday. At lunch on Thursday we will welcome keynote speaker W. Kip Viscusi of Vanderbilt University, and on Friday we will convene a meeting of our membership. During that meeting, we will discuss our plans for continued growth and hope that you will feel free to contact any of us with your suggestions and ideas. We are enormously indebted to the members of the 2015 Program Committee, whose numerous hours of hard work make this event such a success: • Ali Gungor (U.S. Coast Guard) • Sandra Hoffmann (U.S. Department of Agriculture) • Anthony Homan (U.S. Department of Transportation) • Don Kenkel (Cornell University) • Anne Smith (NERA) • Jack Wells (U.S. Department of Transportation – retired) We would also like to thank the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation for its continuing and substantial support of the Society and the GW Regulatory Studies Center, Abt Associates and Econometrica, Inc. for helping to sponsor this conference. We also thank our Organizational Affiliates and premium members, who are listed on the following pages. Thank you very much for your many contributions to the Society, to this conference, and to the field more generally. This year’s conference is our largest conference to date. We hope that we will see you at many future conferences and that you will become a Society member if you have not already done so. Sincerely, W. Kip Viscusi President Chair, 2015 Program Committee Susan E. Dudley Vice President Lisa A. Robinson Past President Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 5 2015 ORGANIZATIONAL AFFILIATES PATRON Eastern Research Group Econometrica, Incorporated* Exxon Mobil* George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center* Industrial Economics, Incorporated* Mathematica Policy Research* NERA Economic Consulting* Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Adminstration, George Washington University * Charter affiliates SUPPORTER Environment Canada Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley Indiana University School of Public and Environmental Affairs Institute on Health Economics, Health Behaviors and Disparities, Cornell University LaFollette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison Optimity Advisors School of Public Policy, University of Maryland University of Kentucky Department of Economics Vanderbilt University’s Ph.D. Program in Law & Economics 6 Advancing the Policy Frontier ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTORS PREMIUM MEMBERS Ronald Bird Glenn C. Blomquist James K. Hammitt Arnold Harberger Sandra Hoffmann Lynn Karoly John Keiser Donald S. Kenkel Kerry Krutilla Lisa A. Robinson Fred Sapp Craig Thornton W. Kip Viscusi David L. Weimer Jack Wells SAVE THE DATE: Annual Conference and Meeting March 16-18, 2016 | Washington, DC March 15-17, 2017 | Washington, DC Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 7 SOCIETY FOR BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS Founded in 2007, the Society is an international organization dedicated to the advancement, exchange of ideas, and research related to benefit-cost analysis (BCA), cost-effectiveness analysis, risk-benefit analysis, applied welfare economic analysis, and damage assessment. The Society’s primary goals are: • Bring together individuals from diverse disciplines and from different countries and provide them opportunities to foster collaboration and exchange information, ideas, and methodologies; • Encourage applications of benefit-cost analysis and applied welfare economics, and promote dialogue between practitioners; • Facilitate the development and dissemination of knowledge about benefit-cost and applied welfare analysis; • Develop and update standards of practice; and • Foster methods to improve communication and consideration of benefit-cost methods and results. W. Kip Viscusi, President 2015 BOARD OF DIRECTORS: • W. Kip Viscusi, Vanderbilt University, President • Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center, Vice President • Lisa Robinson, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, Past President • Richard B. Belzer, Regulatory Checkbook, Treasurer • Randall Lutter, University of Virginia and Resources for the Future, Assistant Treasurer • Elisabeth Gilmore, University of Maryland, College Park, Secretary • Sandra Archibald, Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington • Mark Cohen, Vanderbilt University and Resources for the Future • James K. Hammitt, Harvard University • Robert Johansson, U.S. Department of Agriculture • Lynn Karoly, RAND Corporation • Craig Thornton, Mathematica Policy Research • Jack Wells, U.S. Department of Transportation 8 Advancing the Policy Frontier MEMBERSHIP The Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis has a continuously growing membership working in numerous policy areas, including scholars and practitioners from academia, nonprofits, businesses, and government agencies around the world. The table below summarizes the 2015 benefits associated with each level of annual organizational and individual participation: To join the SBCA, please visit http://benefitcostanalysis.org/membership. Membership information and forms will also be available at the conference registration table. Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 9 JOURNAL OF BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS Starting in 2015, the Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis will be published through Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis. This partnership marks a rebranding of the JBCA in terms of both appearance and reach, reinforcing the journal’s position as an authority on analytical practice of benefit-cost analysis. The journal will benefit from online before-print publication on FirstView and improved article functionality and access. First published in 2010, JBCA uniquely focuses on the theory and practice of benefit-cost analysis and related evaluation methods, publishing theoretical and empirical investigations and case studies. The inaugural issue with Cambridge has contributions by distinguished scholars with years of policy experience; they cover the social discount rate, dealing with ignorance, uncertainty in regulation, regulation-induced impacts on jobs, and anti-smoking policies. Three articles comprise a symposium on BCA when WTA and WTP differ and findings from behavioral economics. Editors Glenn C. Blomquist and William H. Hoyt and Managing Editor Mary Kokoski continue with support from an international editorial board. They thank board members, authors, reviewers, the MacArthur Foundation, and all who contribute to growing the JBCA. EDITORIAL BOARD: Editors-in-Chief: Glenn Blomquist and William Hoyt (University of Kentucky) Managing Editor: Mary Kokoski (University of Kentucky) • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 10 Trudy Cameron (University of Oregon) Mark Cohen (Resources for the Future) Joseph Cordes (George Washington University) Maureen Cropper (University of Maryland) Scott Farrow (UMBC) Art Fraas (Resources for the Future) John Graham (Indiana University) Robert Hahn (University of Manchester and University of Oxford) Arnold Harberger (UCLA) Robert Haveman (University of Wisconsin) Lynn Karoly (RAND Corporation) Eric Posner (University of Chicago) Richard Revesz (New York University) Lisa Robinson (Harvard Center for Risk Analysis) David Salkever (UMBC) W. Kip Viscusi (Vanderbilt University) David Weimer (University of Wisconsin) Richard Zeckhauser (Harvard University) Richard Zerbe (University of Washington) Advancing the Policy Frontier UPCOMING ARTICLES INCLUDE • “Musings on the Social Discount Rate” by Arnold C. Harberger and Glenn P. Jenkins • “Grappling with Ignorance: Frameworks from Decision Theory, Lessons from Literature” by Devjani Roy and Richard Zeckhauser • “Public Policy Induced Changes in Employment: Valuation Issues for Benefit-Cost Analysis” by Robert H. Haveman and David L. Weimer • X LU “Retrospective and Prospective Benefit-Cost Analysis of US Anti-Smoking Policies” by Lawrence Jin, UE VO I S S 000 Don Kenkel, Feng Liu, and Hua Wang 0 00 • S “Uncertainty in the Cost-Effectiveness of Federal Air Quality IRegulations” by Kerry Krutilla, David Good, and John D. Graham • Symposium on “What Should Be Done in BCA when WTA and WTP Differ?” with articles: t s o C s i t s fi y l e a n n e A B Benefit-Cost ME SN X 00 f lo a n r • ou J “The Curiously Continuing Saga of Choosing the Measure of Welfare Changes” by Jack L. • “Implications of the WTP – WTA Disparity for Benefit-Cost Analysis” by James K. Hammitt • “Reference-Dependence Effects in Benefit Assessment: Beyond the WTA-WTP Dichotomy and WTA-WTP Ratios” by W. Kip Viscusi Journal of Knetsch Analysis t s o C s i t s fi Benefi t-Cost Benefi t-Cost Benefi Benefi t-Cost t-Cost Benefi ty l e a n n e A Analysis B Analysis Analysis Analysis An Benefi Benefi t-Cost t-Cost Benefi t-Cost Pri EX UM X L UE VO I S S 000 0-0 00 N0 S IS l Jo a urn ce a f NEW TO CAMBRIDGE Journal Journal ofto ofJournal of New FOR 2015 Cambridge for 2015 Journal of of c Journal of P0 P1 JournalJournal of of Journal of S S ’ +q Journal of q0 e q2 d NEW TO NEW TO NEW TO NEW TO Journal of NEW TO CAMBRIDGE CAMBRIDGE CAMBRIDGEJournal ofCAMBRIDGE CAMBRIDGE FOR 2015 FOR 2015FOR 2015 FOR 2015 Explore the NEW TOJournal NEW FORTO2015 ofJournal of CAMBRIDGE CAMBRIDGE new journal Activate content alerts: FOR 2015 FOR 2015 homepage at: Journal NEWjournals.cambridge.org/BCA-alerts TOof CAMBRIDGE journals.cambridge.org/JBCA Submit Explore the new journal homepage: NEW TOFORNEW TO your article: 2015 journals.cambridge.org/BCA CAMBRIDGE journals.cambridge.org/BCA-submit CAMBRIDGE FOR FOR 2015 NEW2015 TO NEW TO CAMBRIDGE CAMBRIDGE theExplore the Explore the Explore Explore the Explore the FOR 2015 FOR 2015 NEW TO CAMBRIDGE FOR 2015 Cambridge is proud to publish TO JournalNEW of Benefit-Cost Analysis CAMBRIDGE on behalf of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis FOR 2015 Pri b ce a f c P0 P1 Benefi t-Cost Analysis Analysis Analysis Benefi t-Cost Benefi t-Cost Analysis Benefi Benefi t-Cost t-Cost Analysis Analysis Benefit-Cost Analysis Analysis b D Qu an tity q1 q0 e q2 d q’ Analysis new journal new journal new new journal journal new journal homepage at: Journal of Journal of homepage homepage at: homepage at: at: homepage at: Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 11 Explore Explore the the Explore the To ensure you do not miss any content from JBCA journals.cambridge.org/JBCA journals.cambridge.org/JBCA journals.cambridge.org/JBCA journals.cambridge.org/JBCA journals.cambridge.org/JB new journal new journal new journal activate automatic content alerts: efi t-Cost Cost CONFERENCE SCHEDULE OVERVIEW Conference registration includes all meals (breakfast, break refreshments, lunch, and evening receptions) as well as other activities listed below on March 19 and 20, as well as the opening reception on March 18. Pre-conference professional development workshops are also offered on March 18, and all workshop attendees are invited to the opening reception. Below, we provide first an overview of the program, then more detailed information on each session. Wednesday, March 18 1:00 – 1:30 Workshop Registration – Milken Institute School of Public Health, First Floor 1:30 – 5:00 Professional Development Workshops • Workshop 1: Benefit-Cost Analysis in the States: Status, Results First, and Options to Increase Usage among Policymakers (Milken Convening Center A) Organizer: Darcy White, Pew Charitable Trusts • Workshop 3: An Overview of Climate Change, Its Impacts and the Social Cost of Carbon (Milken Convening Center B) Organizer: Elisabeth Gilmore, University of Maryland • Workshop 5: QALYs in Cost-Effectiveness and Benefit-Cost Analysis (Milken Convening Center C) Organizer: Scott D. Grosse, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) • Workshop 6: Retrospective Benefit-Cost Analysis (Milken Classroom 300A) Organizer: Jennifer Baxter, Industrial Economics, Incorporated 5:00 – 6:30 Opening Reception - Milken Institute School of Public Health, First Floor Thursday, March 19 8:00 – 9:00 Registration and Breakfast – Marvin Center Third Floor Foyer/Grand Ballroom 9:00 – 10:30 Session 1 • A.1: What Should Policy Makers (and the Public) Know about Interpreting Regulatory BCA? (Marvin 309) • B.1: Water Resources Management (Marvin 307) • C.1: Estimation of Cumulative Benefits and Costs of Regulation Using the “RegData” Database (Marvin 308) • D.1: Use of BCA in Setting Homeland Security Policy (Marvin 413-414) • E.1: Social Policy BCA: Assessing Child Welfare and Justice Programs (Marvin 310) 10:30 – 10:45 Break - Marvin Center Grand Ballroom (sponsored by Abt Associates) 10:45 – 12:15 Session 2 • A.2: Benefit-Cost Analysis and Health Care: A Conversation with David Cutler and Sherry Glied (Marvin 309) Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 13 CONFERENCE SCHEDULE OVERVIEW • B.2: Decision Tools for Analyzing Uncertain Futures (Marvin 307) • C.2: Transportation: Program and Project Assessments (Marvin 308) • D.2: The Nexus between Health Effects Studies and Benefits (Marvin 413-414) • E.2: Perspectives on Implementing Benefit Cost Analysis in Climate Assessment (Marvin 310) 12:15 – 2:00 Keynote Luncheon - Marvin Center Grand Ballroom Keynote Address, W. Kip Viscusi, Vanderbilt University: “Pricing Lives for Government and Corporate Risk Decisions” 2:00 – 3:30 Session 3 • A.3: Skills for the Next Generation: A Conversation between Senior Government Economists and Public Policy School Leaders (Marvin 309) • B.3: Assessing Benefits for Policies that Reduce Health Risks (Marvin 307) • C.3: Development and Miscellaneous Regulatory Issues (Marvin 308) • D.3: The Valuation of Ecological Goods and Services in Support of Benefit-Cost Analysis (Marvin 413-414) • E.3: Climate Policy Benefits Issues (Marvin 310) 3:30 – 3:45 Break - Marvin Center Grand Ballroom 3:45 – 5:15 Session 4 5:30 – 8:30 • A.4: Estimating the Benefits of Policies that Address Addictive Goods (Marvin 309) • B.4: Benefits, Costs and Labor Markets (Marvin 307) • C.4: Benefit-Cost Practices and Discounting Issues (Marvin 308) • D.4: Electricity Sector Optimization (Marvin 413-414) • E.4: Non-Market Recreational Welfare Effects of Changes in the Diversity and Abundance of Species (Marvin 310) Dinner Reception - Marvin Center Grand Ballroom (sponsored by the MacArthur Foundation) Friday, March 20 8:00 – 9:00 Registration and Breakfast - Marvin Center Third Floor Foyer/Grand Ballroom 9:00 – 10:30 Session 5 • A.5: Financial Benefits of Remediation (Marvin 309) • B.5: Economics Frontiers and Benefit-Cost Analysis (Marvin 307) • C.5: Finance Issues (Marvin 308) • D.5: Economic Evaluation of Medical Interventions (Marvin 413-414) • E.5: Methodological Approaches to Benefit-Cost Analysis (Marvin 310) 10:30 – 10:45 Break - Marvin Center Grand Ballroom (sponsored by Econometrica, Inc.) 14 Advancing the Policy Frontier CONFERENCE SCHEDULE OVERVIEW 10:45 – 12:15 Session 6 • A.6: Valuing Reductions in Morbidity and Mortality (Marvin 309) • B.6: Food and Water Issues (Marvin 307) • C.6: Local Policy Issues (Marvin 308) • D.6: Real Option Value and Federal Offshore Leasing (Marvin 413-414) • E.6: International Benefit-Cost Analysis Issues (Marvin 310) 12:15 – 2:00 Luncheon featuring Annual Meeting of the SBCA Membership - Marvin Center Grand Ballroom 2:00 – 3:30 Session 7 • A.7: Retrospective BCA of Federal Rules (Marvin 309) • B.7: Law and Economics Perspectives on Benefit-Cost Analysis (Marvin 307) • C.7: Preliminary Recommendations from the 2nd Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine (Marvin 308) • D.7: Cost-Effective Air Quality Strategies (Marvin 413-414) • E.7: Valuing Outcomes and Performing BCA for Social Policy Intervention (Marvin 310) 3:30 – 3:45 Break - Marvin Center Grand Ballroom 3:45 – 5:15 Session 8 5:15 – 6:30 • A.8: Challenges and Opportunities for Economic Analysis of Risk Regulations (Marvin 309) • B.8: Retrospective Review of Federal Regulations (Marvin 307) • C.8: State and Local Benefit-Cost Issues (Marvin 308) • D.8: Assessing Benefits in Consumer Protection Regulation (Marvin 302) • E.8: The Effectiveness of Policies Involving Health Warning Labels and Signage: Cigarettes, e-Cigarettes, and Alcohol (Marvin 310) Closing Reception - Marvin Center Grand Ballroom (sponsored by George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center) Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 15 DETAILED PROGRAM AGENDA THURSDAY, MARCH 19 FRIDAY, MARCH 20 THURSDAY, MARCH 19 DETAIL Room A – Room B – Room C – Room D – Room E – Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 308 Marvin 413-414 Marvin 310 C.1: Estimation of Cumulative Benefits and Costs of Regulation Using the “RegData” Database D.1: Use of BCA in Setting Homeland Security Policy 9:00 – 10:30 A.1: What Should Session 1 Policy Makers (and the Public) Know about Interpreting Regulatory BCA? Chair: Susan Dudley, The George Washington University Panelists: Richard Belzer, Regulatory Checkbook Glenn Blomquist, University of Kentucky Chris Carrigan, The George Washington University Tony Cox, Cox Associates Peter Linquiti, The George Washington University Brian Mannix, The George Washington University B.1: Water Resources Management Chair: William Wheeler, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Presentations: Economic Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Pilot Studies in the Great Lakes Region, Tess Forsell*, Eastern Research Group; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coastal Service Center; Horsley Witten Group, Inc. Joint Effects of Storm Surge and Sea-Level Risk on U.S. Coasts, Lindsay Ludwig* and James Neumann, Industrial Economics; Kerry Emanuel and Sai Ravela, WindRisk Tech and MIT; Paul Kirshen, University of New Hampshire; Kirk Bosma, Woods Hole Group; and Jeremy Martinich, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Assessing the Distributional Consequences of Premium and Claims Payments in the National Flood Insurance Program, Okmyung Bin* and John A. Bishop, East Carolina University; Carolyn Kousky, Resources for the Future Economic Evaluation of Community Water Fluoridation: A Community Guide Systematic Review, Tao Ran*, Sajal Chattopadhyay and Randy Elder, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention E.1: Social Policy BCA: Assessing Child Welfare Chair: Tony Homan, and Justice U.S. Department of Programs Transportation Chair: James Chair: Stuart Presentations: Broughel, George Shapiro, Rutgers Mason University University The Social Value of Cybersecurity, Presentations: Discussant: Daniela Silitra* and Brian RegData: A Haeme Nam, MITRE Bumbarger, Numerical Database Corporation Pennsylvania on Industry-Specific A Literature State University Regulations for All Review and U.S. Industries and Presentations: Federal Regulations, Proposed Method of Measuring 1997-2012, Patrick A Cost-Benefit a Reduction in McLaughlin* and Analysis of the Vulnerability, Alex Omar Al-Ubaydli, 2009 Reform of Moscoso*, U.S. George Mason the Rockefeller Transportation University Drug Laws in Security New York City, Estimating Industry- Administration Joshua Rinaldi*, and Agency-Specific Vera Institute of Estimating Benefits Cumulative Costs Justice of Maritime Safety and Benefits with Training Programs, RegData, Antony Doing Well, Ali Gungor*, U.S. Davies*, Duquesne While Doing Coast Guard University; Patrick Good: A Benefit McLaughlin Cost Analysis Estimating the of Private Cumulative Impact The Aggregate Cost Foundation of Coast Guard of Regulations: A Investment in Structural Estimation Regulations Under a Social Bond Executive Order of a Tractable MultiImpact Program 13563, Rosemarie Sector Endogenous to Reduce Odom*, Paul Large Growth Model, Recidivism, and Ali Gungor, U.S. Bentley Coffey*, Joseph Cordes*, Coast Guard University of South The George Carolina; Patrick Washington McLaughlin; Pietro University; Peretto, Duke William Winfrey, University HCM Strategists/ EPI Does Regulation Enhance or Inhibit Cost-Benefit Turnover of Firms Analysis of by Industry? Thomas Supportive Stratmann*, Matt Housing for Mitchell, and Patrick Child Welfare McLaughlin, George Involved Mason University Families, Josh Leopold*, Mary Cunningham and Mike Pergamit, Urban Institute Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 17 THURSDAY, MARCH 19 DETAIL Room A – Room B – Room C – Room D – Room E – Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 308 Marvin 413-414 Marvin 310 10:45 – 12:15 A.2: Benefit-Cost Session 2 Analysis and Health Care: A Conversation with David Cutler and Sherry Glied Chair: Amber Jessup, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Panelists: David Cutler, Harvard University Sherry Glied, New York University B.2: Decision Tools C.2: Transportation: D.2: The Nexus for Analyzing Program and between Health Uncertain Futures Project Assessments Effects Studies and Benefits Chair: Susan Chair: Douglas Dudley, The George Scheffler, U.S. Coast Chair: Randall Washington Guard Lutter, Resources University for the Future Discussant: and University of Panelists: Ryan Endorf, U.S. Virginia Department of Chris Carrigan, The Transportation Discussant: Arnold George Washington Harberger, UCLA University Presentations: Presentations: Tony Cox, Cox Social Welfare Associates Analysis of An Objective and Investment PublicBCA-Compliant Heidi King, GE Private Partnership Definition of Capital Approaches for ‘Adverse Effect’, Transportation Richard Belzer*, Peter Linquiti, The Projects, R. Richard Regulatory George Washington Geddes*, Omid Checkbook University Rouhani, and H. On the Importance Oliver Gao, Cornell Brian Mannix, The of Discarded InterUniversity; Germà Bel, George Washington Maneuver Variance University of Barcelona University in the Estimation Marine of Benefits from Anne Smith, NERA Transportation Reduced Exposure Delays: Lock-Closure to Ambient Air Case Study MetaPollutants, R. Jeffrey Analysis, Kathryn Lewis*, ExxonMobil Connelly*, Rolling Bay; Biomedical Michael Trombley, U.S. Sciences; Richard Coast Guard Belzer, Regulatory Checkbook Use of Economic Evaluation Methods Valuing Mortality for Transportation Risk Reductions Project Appraisal: from Traffic Application of a Accidents and 3-Dimensional Air Pollution Space-Time Simultaneously, Framework, Glen Luis Cifuentes*, L. Weisbrod*, Economic Rizzi, C. Cabrera, Development Research M. Browne, and P. Group, Inc. Iglesias, Universidad Católica de Chile E.2: Perspectives on Implementing Benefit Cost Analysis in Climate Assessment Chair: Fran Sussman, ICF International Presentations: State of the Literature on Economic Impacts and Adaptation at the Sectoral Level in the U.S., James Neumann*, Industrial Economics; Kenneth Strzepek, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Improving the Practice of Economic Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation, Jia Li, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Rationales for a “Dashboard” Approach to Inform Climate Change Assessment, Michael Toman*, World Bank Incorporating Benefit-Cost Analysis into Other DecisionMaking Frameworks, Robert Lempert*, RAND Corporation 18 Advancing the Policy Frontier THURSDAY, MARCH 19 DETAIL Room A – Marvin 309 2:00 – 3:30 A.3: Skills for the Session 3 Next Generation: A Conversation between Senior Government Economists and Public Policy School Leaders Chair: David Weimer, University of WisconsinMadison Room B – Marvin 307 B.3: Assessing Benefits for Policies that Reduce Health Risks Chair: Thomas J. Kniesner, Claremont Graduate University Presentations: Believe Only Half of What You See: The Sherry Glied, Wagner Role of Preference Graduate School of Heterogeneity Public Service, New in Contingent York University Valuation, Daniel Herrera*, Toulouse Kathryn Newcomer, School of Economics; Trachtenberg James K. Hammitt, School of Public Harvard University Policy and Public Administration, Willingness to George Washington Pay for Mortality University Risk Reduction in Chinese Cities, Sarah Stafford, Sandra Hoffmann*, Jefferson Program in U.S. Department of Public Policy, College Agriculture; Alan of William and Mary Krupnick, Resources for the Future; Amber Jessup, U.S. Ping Qin, Peking Department of University Health and Human Services Valuing Reductions Panelists: Al McGartland, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clark Nardinelli, U.S. Food and Drug Administration Jack Wells, U.S. Department of Transportation retired in Risks of Fatal Illness: Implications of Recent Research, Lisa A. Robinson* and James K. Hammitt, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis The Role of Publication Selection Bias in Estimates of the Value of a Statistical Life, W. Kip Viscusi*, Vanderbilt University Room C – Room D – Marvin 308 Marvin 413-414 C.3: Development D.3: The and Miscellaneous Valuation of Regulatory Issues Ecological Goods and Services Chair: Tony in Support of Homan, U.S. Benefit-Cost Department of Analysis Transportation Chair: Ann Discussant: Kemal Cavlovic, Bagzibagli, Eastern Environment Mediterranean Canada University Discussant: Presentations: Randall Lutter, Resources for Integration the Future and Investment University of Appraisal of Critical Virginia for Post-Conflict Development Presentations: Investment: Milk Processing Plant, Environmental Ethiopia, Glenn P. Benefit Transfer Jenkins*, Queen’s for DecisionUniversity, and Making, JeanMikhail Miklyaev, Michel Larivière*, Cambridge Environment Resources Canada International Improving the Efficient Valuation of Water Microlending Quality, William without Joint Wheeler*, U.S. Liability, Can Environmental Sever*, University Protection Agency of Maryland; Ahmet Measuring Altinok, Boğaziçi Ecosystem University Service Benefits The Impact of for Benefit-Cost Past Landscapes Analysis, Kimberly Memory on Rollins*, University Land Holders’ of Nevada, Reno Willingness to and Environment Participate in Canada Payments Policy Instrument in Highlands of the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Befikadu Alemayehu Legesse* and Frank Wätzold, Brandenburg University of Technology Room E – Marvin 310 E.3: Climate Policy Benefits Issues Chair: Richard Belzer, Regulatory Checkbook Presentations: Examining the Energy Efficiency Gap in EPA’s Benefit-Cost Analysis of Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Regulations, Gloria Helfand*, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Reid Dorsey-Palmateer, University of Michigan Loaded DICE: Refining the Metaanalysis Approach to Calibrating Climate Damage Functions, Peter Howard*, NYU School of Law; Thomas Sterner, University of Gothenburg Think Global, Benefit Local: How the United States Benefits from Calculating the Global Costs of Its Carbon Emissions, Jason Schwartz* and Peter Howard, NYU School of Law Estimating the Social Benefits of a State-Wide Carbon Tax: A Case Study in Washington State, Alison Saperstein*, Andrew Martin and Kate Delavan*, University of Washington Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 19 THURSDAY, MARCH 19 DETAIL Room A – Room B – Room C – Room D – Room E – Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 308 Marvin 413-414 Marvin 310 3:45 – 5:15 A.4: Estimating Session 4 the Benefits of Policies that Address Addictive Goods Chair: Lisa A. Robinson, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis B.4: Benefits, Costs and Labor Markets Chair: Joseph Cordes, The George Washington University Presentations: Public Policy Induced Changes David Cutler, in Employment: Harvard Valuation Issues University for Benefit-Cost Analysis, David Sherry Glied, New Weimer* and York University Robert Haveman, University of James K. Wisconsin-Madison Hammitt, Harvard Income Growth, University Inequality and Panelists: Happiness, Donald Kenkel, Richard Zerbe*, Cornell University University of Washington The Social and Economic Effects of Wage Violations: Estimates for California and New York, Kelly Haverstick*, Calvin Franz, Tess Forsell and Lou Nadeau, Eastern Research Group Social Enterprises and the Disadvantaged: The Costs and Benefits of Stabilizing Lives through Transitional Employment, Dana Rotz* and Nan Maxwell, Mathematica Policy Research 20 Advancing the Policy Frontier C.4: Benefit-Cost Practices and Discounting Issues Chair: Jack Knetsch, Simon Fraser University Presentations: Kaldor, Hicks, and Discounting, Daniel Wilmoth*, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services The Social Discount in Developing Countries, Missaka Warusawitharana*, Federal Reserve Board Does Benefit-Cost Analysis Solve the Right Problem?, Timothy Brennan*, University of Maryland, Baltimore County Formality and Informality in CostBenefit Analysis, Amy Sinden*, Temple University D.4: Electricity Sector Optimization Chair: Anne Smith, NERA Presentations: Analyzing the Costs and Benefits of Microgrids, Brian Morrison*, Nadav Tanners, Claire Santoro, and Christopher Smith, Industrial Economics, Inc. E.4: Non-Market Recreational Welfare Effects of Changes in the Diversity and Abundance of Species Chair: Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon Presentations: A Combined Revealed/ Stated Preference Model for Projecting the Impact of Aquatic Nuisance Species on Recreational Angling in the Great Lakes, Upper An Economic Mississippi, and Ohio River Analysis of Power Basins, Gregory L. Poe*, Generation Cornell University; Richard Options for C. Ready, Pennsylvania State Nigeria, Ijeoma L. Eziyi* and Omotola University / Montana State M. Awojobi, Eastern University; T. Bruce Lauber, N.A. Connelly, R.C Stedman Mediterranean and S. Creamer, Cornell University University Cost-Benefit Analysis of The Value of Water Fuel-Flexibility in Quality to Fishermen in Thermal Power the Chesapeake Bay, Matt Generation, Massey*, U.S. Environmental Bahman Kashi* and Glenn Jenkins, Protection Agency; Steve Newbold, U.S. Environmental Queen’s University Protection Agency Implications Joint Estimation of of Technology Availability on Revealed and Stated Clean Power Plan Preference Data from Compliance Costs, the Alaska Saltwater Scott Bloomberg*, Sportfishing Economic NERA Survey, John C. Whitehead*, Appalachian State University, Daniel K. Lew, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service The Value to Birders of Species Biodiversity: A Random Utility Model of Site Choice by eBird Participants, Sonja Kolstoe* and Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon FRIDAY, MARCH 20 DETAIL Room A – Marvin 309 9:00 – 10:30 A.5: Financial Session 5 Benefits of Remediation Chair: Heidi King, GE Capital Presentations: The Value of Brownfield Remediation, Lala Ma*, University of Kentucky; Kevin Haninger, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Christopher Timmins, Duke University The Labor Market Impacts of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Oil Drilling Moratorium, Joseph E. Aldy*, Harvard Kennedy School Welfare Impacts of Labor Market Changes Induced by Regulations, Ann E. Ferris* and Alex Marten, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency From Controversy to Consensus: Decommissioning California’s Offshore Oil Platforms, Max Henrion*, Lumina Decision Systems Room B – Room C – Marvin 307 Marvin 308 B.5: Economics Frontiers and Benefit-Cost Analysis C.5: Finance Issues Chair: Ali Gungor, U.S. Coast Guard Chair: Sandra Hoffmann, U.S. Department of Agriculture Presentations: Accounting for Market Distortions in an Integrated Investment Appraisal Framework, Kemal Bagzibagli*, Eastern Mediterranean University; Glenn P. Jenkins, Queen’s University/Eastern Mediterranean University; Octave Semwaga, Ministry of Finance of Rwanda Presentations: WTP or WTA: Determining the Appropriate Measure When Preferences Are Reference Dependent, Phumsith Mahasuweerachai*, Khon Kaen University; Jack Knetsch, Simon Fraser University More Accurate Estimation of Program Benefits in a Hedonic Setting, Thomas J. Kniesner*, Claremont Graduate University; Chris Rohlfs, Morgan Stanley; Ryan Sullivan, Naval Postgraduate School Challenges in BCA from Implementing the Many Concepts of Risk and Uncertainty, Scott Farrow*, University of Maryland, Baltimore County A Study in the Use of Game Theory in the Regulatory Process, Jose Davalos*, U.S. Coast Guard Room D – Marvin 413-414 Room E – Marvin 310 D.5: Economic Evaluation of Medical Interventions E.5: Methodological Approaches to Benefit-Cost Analysis Chair: Don Kenkel, Cornell University Chair: Kerry Krutilla, Indiana University Presentations: Presentations: Saving Lives with Stem Cell Transplants, Damien Sheehan-Connor*, Wesleyan University; Theodore Bergstrom, University of California Santa Barbara; Rodney Garratt, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Regulatory Compliance Learning Costs: An Assessment of Agencies’ Practices, Ronald Bird*, U.S. Chamber of Commerce The Use of Economic Evaluation to Inform Newborn Screening A Review of and Policy Decisions: The Lessons Learned Washington State from Federal Experience, Scott D. Research and Grosse*, U.S. Centers Development for Disease Control Facility Capital and Prevention; Budgeting John D. Thompson Practices, Vanessa and Michael Glass, Peña* and Susanna Washington State Howieson, IDA Department of Health Science and Retrospective Technology Policy Benefit-Cost Analysis Institute Review of Bar Code Identifying a Labeling for Human Suitable Control Drug and Biological Group Based on Products, Nellie Lew*, Microeconomic Clark Nardinelli, Theory: The Case and Andreas Schick, of Escrows in the U.S. Food and Drug Subprime Market, Administration; Xiaoling Ang* and Elizabeth Ashley, Office Alexei Alexandrov, of Management and Consumer Financial Budget Protection Bureau Benefit-Cost Escape from the Analysis of Universal Silos: Stakeholder Newborn Screening Analysis, William for Severe Combined McCarten*, World Immunodeficiency Bank - retired (SCID): A Policy Tool for State Health, Yao Ding*, Ruhiyyih Degeberg, Jelili Ojodu, Association The Mercatus Center’s Regulatory Cost Calculator: A Survey Tool to Capture the Full Opportunity Costs of Regulation, Jerry Ellig*, George Mason University Spatial Analysis in a Benefit-Cost Context, Erik Gomez* and Douglas Scheffler, U.S. Coast Guard Multi-Period BenefitCost Analysis, Andrew Schmitz* and Dwayne J. Haynes, University of Florida; Troy G. Schmitz, Arizona State University Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 21 FRIDAY, MARCH 20 DETAIL Room A – Room B – Room C – Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 308 9:00 – 10:30 Session 5 Room E – Marvin 413-414 Marvin 310 of Public Health Laboratories; Scott D. Grosse, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; John D. Thompson, Washington State Department of Health 10:45 – 12:15 A.6: Valuing Session 6 Reductions in Morbidity and Mortality Chair: Joseph E. Aldy, Harvard University Presentations: The Morbidity and Mortality Components of the Value of Statistical Life, Elissa Philip* and W. Kip Viscusi, Vanderbilt University Implications for Regulatory Analyses of Different Approaches to Estimating the Value of a Statistical Life, Ines Havet*, Ontario Ministry of the Environment Eliciting Fatal and Non-Fatal Risk Trade-Offs: An Experimental Approach Using an Incentivized Learning Experiment, Hugh Metcalf*, Susan Chilton and Jytte Seeted Nielsen, Newcastle University Preferences for LifeExpectancy Gains: Sooner or Later? James K. Hammitt* and Tuba Tuncel, Harvard University/ Toulouse School of Economics 22 Room D – Advancing the Policy Frontier B.6: Food and Water Issues C.6: Local Policy Issues Chair: James Neumann, Industrial Economics Chair: Richard Zerbe, University of Washington Discussant: Linda Abbott, U.S. Department of Agriculture Discussant: Stuart Shapiro, Rutgers University Presentations: The Impact of Western Valuing an Ounce Washington of Prevention: University (WWU)’s the Social CostTuition Increase Effectiveness on Enrollment and Analysis of Secondary Markets, Alternative Qingqing Sun*, Strategies Daniel Ahn and to Secure Michael McBride, Groundwater University of Quality, Ted Washington Horbulyk*, The Benefits University of and Costs of an Calgary Earthquake Early Consumer Warning System in Valuation of Washington State, Organic Egg Eli Lieberman* and Characteristics Andrew Calkins, and its University of Implications Washington for Public Ex Ante BenefitPolicy, Eliza M. Cost Analysis of Mojduszka, U.S. New Stadium Department of Construction: Agriculture Theory and Benefit Cost Application, Analysis of Bryan Roberts*, Water, Smita Econometrica; Bhatia*, Specstra Daniel Greene, Alden Consulting Street Consulting Presentations: D.6: Real Option Value and Federal Offshore Leasing E.6: International Benefit-Cost Analysis Issues Chair: Michael Livermore, NYU Institute for Policy Integrity Chair: Timothy Brennan, University of Maryland, Baltimore County Panelists: Discussant: William McCarten, World Bank - retired Michael Hanemann, UC Berkeley and Arizona State University Scott Farrow, University of Maryland, Baltimore County Jayni Hein, New York University Peter Howard, New York University Presentations: Should BCA Be Harmonized? Leo Dobes*, Australian National University; George Argyrous, Australia and New Zealand School of Government; Joanne Leung, New Zealand Ministry of Transport The Social CostBenefit Analysis of Research Infrastructure: An Exploratory Framework, Massimo Florio*, University of Milan; Emanuela Sirtori, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies New Trends in CBA of Public Investments in France, Emile Quinet*, Paris School of Economics-Ecole des Ponts ParisTech FRIDAY, MARCH 20 DETAIL Room A – Room B – Room C – Room D – Room E – Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 308 Marvin 413-414 Marvin 310 D.7: Cost-Effective Air Quality Strategies E.7: Valuing Outcomes and Performing BCA for Social Policy Intervention 2:00 – 3:30 A.7: Session 7 Retrospective BCA of Federal Rules Chair: Dick Morgenstern, Resources for the Future Discussant: Al McGartland, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Presentations: A Retrospective Assessment of EPA’s Air Toxics Rules, Art Fraas*, Resources for the Future A Retrospective Assessment of Federal Efforts to Reduce Foodborne Illness: Shell Eggs and Salmonella Enteritidis, Randall Lutter*, Resources for the Future and University of Virginia A Retrospective Evaluation of the Cluster Rule: The Pulp and Paper Industry, Ron Shadbegian*, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Wayne Gray, Clark University B.7: Law and Economics Perspectives on Benefit-Cost Analysis Chair: Jack Knetsch, Simon Fraser University Presentations: Is Every Regulation Potentially CostBenefit Justified?: Methodological Pluralism and the Estimation of Regulatory Benefits, Jason Johnston*, University of Virginia Judicial Review of Agency BenefitCost Analysis, Caroline Cecot* and W. Kip Viscusi, Vanderbilt University Cost-Benefit Analysis, Distributional Weights, and Institutions, Matthew Adler*, Duke University Using KaldorHicks Tableaus for Distributional Accounting in Regulatory Impact Assessment, Kerry Krutilla*, Gabriel Piña, and Yu Zhang, Indiana University C.7: Preliminary Recommendations from the 2nd Panel on CostEffectiveness in Health and Medicine Chair: Theodore Ganiats, UC San Diego Panelists: Scott D. Grosse, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention James K. Hammitt, Harvard University Chair: Anne Smith, NERA Presentations: A Critical review of the Development and Use of Externality Costs for Air Quality, Elisabeth Gilmore*, University of Maryland A Mixed Integer Programming Model for National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Attainment Strategy Analysis, Alexander Macpherson*, Heather Simon, David Misenheimer, Charles Fulcher, Bryan Hubbell and Robin Langdon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Benefit-Cost Analysis of Phasing Out Coal in Power Plants and for Residential Use, Henrik Andersson*, Professor, Toulouse School of Economics (LERNA); Yana Jin and Shiqiu Zhang, Peking University Benefit-Cost Analysis of Efficient Environmental Damage Emission Pricing in the Power Sector, Daniel Shawhan*, Resources for the Future; Biao Mao, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; Ray Zimmerman, Charles Marquet, and Jubo Yan, Cornell University; Yujia Zhu, Arizona State University Chair: Francisco Perez-Arce, RAND Corporation Presentations: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Communities That Care: Social Policy Implications in Washington State, Margaret R. Kuklinski*, University of Washington Investigations of the Links Between Early Non-cognitive Skills and Future Adult Outcomes: Relevance for Economic Assessment of Programs for Children, Damon Jones* and Mark Greenberg, Pennsylvania State University Valuing Outcomes of Social Programs: The RAND Database of Shadow Prices for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Social Programs, Lynn A. Karoly*, RAND Corporation Strengthening Benefit-Cost Analyses of Behavioral Prevention: Report on Progress of the Society for Prevention Research’s Task for on Economic Analyses of Prevention, Max Crowley*, Duke University Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 23 FRIDAY, MARCH 20 DETAIL Room A – Room B – Room C – Room D – Room E – Marvin 309 Marvin 307 Marvin 308 Marvin 302 Marvin 310 B.8: Retrospective Review of Federal Regulations C.8: State and Local Benefit-Cost Issues 3:45 – 5:15 A.8: Challenges Session 8 and Opportunities for Economic Analysis of Risk Regulations Chair: Jennifer Baxter, Industrial Economics, Incorporated Panelists: Elizabeth Ashley, U.S. Office of Management and Budget Tony Cheesebrough, National Protection and Programs Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Sandra Hoffmann, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture Amber Jessup, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Al McGartland, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clark Nardinelli, U.S. Food and Drug Administration Rosemarie Odom, U.S. Coast Guard Jack Wells, U.S. Department of Transportation retired 24 Advancing the Policy Frontier Chair: Maeve Carey, Chair: Ronald Bird, Congressional U.S. Chamber of Research Service Commerce Discussant: James Broughel, George Mason University Discussant: Jerry Ellig, George Mason University Presentations: Presentations: Learning from Experience: An Assessment of the Retrospective Review of Agency Rules and the Evidence for Improving the Design and Implementation of Regulatory Policy, Joseph E. Aldy*, Harvard University Evidence-Based Policymaking: Integrating CostBenefit Analysis into a Broader Approach to Fund What Works in State and Local Government, Darcy White* and Torey Silloway*, The Pew Charitable Trusts Looking Back at Retrospective Review: How Did Agencies Measure Up in 2014? Sofie E. Miller*, The George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center A Framework for Evaluating Regulatory Outcomes, Kathryn Newcomer*, Susan Dudley, and Estelle Raimondo, George Washington University Why Look Back? An Analysis of State Government Decisions to Analyze Existing Regulations, Stuart Shapiro*, Debra Borie-Holtz and Ian Markey, Rutgers University Ex-Ante CostBenefit Analyses of Community-based DRR Interventions in the Caribbean, Meenakshi Jerath* and Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Florida International University D.8: Assessing Benefits in Consumer Protection Regulation Chair: Lisa A. Robinson, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis Panelists: Howell Jackson, Harvard Law School Paul Rothstein, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Michael Livermore, University of Virginia Art Fraas, Resources for the Future Dick Morgenstern, Resources for the Future E.8: The Effectiveness of Policies Involving Health Warning Labels and Signage: Cigarettes, e-Cigarettes, and Alcohol Chair: Trudy Ann Cameron, University of Oregon Discussant: Joseph Cordes, The George Washington University Presentations: Will New Warning Labels Encourage or Discourage the Use of Electronic Cigarettes? Evidence from Experimental Markets, Don Kenkel*, Cornell University What are the Potential Benefits of Graphic Warning Labels? Richard M. Peck* and John A. Tauras, University of Illinois at Chicago The Effects of Posted Point-ofSale Warnings on Alcohol Consumption During Pregnancy and on Birth Outcomes, Gulcan Cil*, University of Oregon CONFERENCE LOGISTICS: WIFI ACCESS Network: GWConnect See handouts at registration desk for instructions for how to log in via guest access WORKSHOPS & OPENING RECEPTION Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University (red dot on the map) 950 New Hampshire Ave NW, Washington, DC 20052 CONFERENCE CENTER George Washington University Marvin Center (green dot on the map) 800 21st Street NW, Washington, DC 20052 LODGING One Washington Circle Hotel (blue dot on the map) One Washington Circle, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037 METRO ACCESS Conference events take place within walking distance of the Foggy Bottom Metro Station (noted on the map below) Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 25 MILKEN FLOOR PLAN March 18 Workshops will take place in the Convening Center (marked as 4 above) and the Prefunction space (5 above), as well as in Room 300A on the third floor. 26 Advancing the Policy Frontier MARVIN CENTER FLOOR PLAN Conference events will take place in the Lobby, Grand Ballroom, and rooms 302, 307, 308, 309, 310 and 413-414 on the Fourth Floor. Seventh Annual Conference and Meeting of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis 27
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