Market Analysis
Earl J. Lum
+1-650-430-2221
[email protected]
11th Edition
Global Macrocell Base Station Market Analysis and Forecast, 2015-2019
May 2015
Entire contents © 2015 EJL Wireless Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior
written permission is strictly forbidden and will be prosecuted to the full extent of US and International laws. The transfer of this
publication in either paper or electronic form to unlicensed third parties is strictly forbidden. The information contained herein has
been obtained from sources EJL Wireless Research LLC deems reliable. EJL Wireless Research disclaims all warranties as to the
accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of such information. EJL Wireless Research LLC shall bear no liability for errors, omissions,
or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for the interpretation thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the
selection of these materials to achieve their intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
© 2015 EJL Wireless Research LLC. All Rights Reserved
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................... 7
2014 Review: The Year of TDD-LTE and China Mobile.......................................... 8
2015-2019 Forecast ......................................................................................12
Demand Drivers for Our Forecast ....................................................................13
Summary ....................................................................................................14
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ............................................................... 15
CHAPTER 1: OVERALL MARKET PERFORMANCE......................................... 17
1.1 2014: Another Year of Record Shipments for LTE .........................................17
1.2 OEM Analysis –Huawei Remains Market Leader ............................................23
1.3 The Chinese Factor ..................................................................................25
1.4 BTS Forecast 2015-2019 ..........................................................................27
Demand Drivers for Our Forecast ....................................................................29
CHAPTER 2: LTE ENODEBS.............................................................. 35
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
LTE Market Share ....................................................................................37
LTE1800MHz is the global band for roaming ................................................43
The Chinese Factor ..................................................................................46
LTE eNodeB Forecast 2015-2019 ...............................................................48
CHAPTER 3: W-CDMA/HSPA+ NODEBS ............................................. 53
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
W-CDMA Market Share Analysis.................................................................53
Shipments declined for 2100MHz and 900MHz categories ..............................57
The Chinese Factor ..................................................................................59
W-CDMA Forecast 2015-2019....................................................................61
CHAPTER 4: GSM ........................................................................ 65
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
Obsolete But Not Dead Yet!.......................................................................65
The Chinese Factor ..................................................................................68
GSM900/GSM1800 Technology Becomes Obsolete........................................69
GSM Forecast 2015-2019 .........................................................................71
CHAPTER 5: CDMA2000................................................................ 75
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
The end of the road is near .......................................................................75
The Chinese Factor ..................................................................................77
It's a battle to the end between 850MHz vs. 1900MHz ..................................79
CDMA2000 Forecast 2015-2019.................................................................80
CHAPTER 6: GEOGRAPHICAL MARKET SHARE .......................................... 84
China: LTE Driving Strong Rebound .................................................................84
6.1 North & Latin America ..............................................................................87
6.2 Western & Eastern Europe ........................................................................90
6.3 Africa & Middle East .................................................................................91
6.4 Asia Pacific .............................................................................................94
6.5 Brazil/Russia/India/China (BRIC) Analysis ...................................................97
CHAPTER 7: BTS CONFIGURATION TYPES ........................................... 102
7.1 dRRU BTS ............................................................................................ 104
7.2 cRFM BTS............................................................................................. 106
7.3 cRFM vs. dRRU Forecast ......................................................................... 107
CHAPTER 8: REMOTE RADIO UNIT (RRU) ANALYSIS ............................... 108
CHAPTER 9: BTS OEM COMPANY PROFILES......................................... 112
9.1 Alcatel-Lucent ....................................................................................... 113
9.2 Ericsson ............................................................................................... 116
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9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
Huawei Technologies.............................................................................. 119
Nokia Networks (aka Nokia Solutions Networks, NSN)................................. 122
Samsung Electronics .............................................................................. 125
ZTE ..................................................................................................... 128
Nokia Networks + Alcatel-Lucent (Pro Forma)............................................ 131
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TABLES
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1: Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2013-2014 (Units) .......................................................... 10
2: Pro Forma Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units) ................................................... 11
3: Global BTS Market Share by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................... 19
4: Global BTS Market Share by Air Interface, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................................... 20
5: Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2013-2014 (Units) .......................................................... 23
6: Pro Forma Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units) ................................................... 24
7: Global BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................................ 25
8: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2015-2019 (Units) ...................................... 30
9: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2015-2019 (% Market Share)....................... 31
10: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, 2015-2019 (% YoY Growth) ....................... 32
11: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2015-2019 (Units) .................................................... 33
12: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2015-2019 (% Market Share)..................................... 33
13: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2015-2019 (% YoY Growth) ....................................... 33
14: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units) ......................................................... 37
15: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share (Pro Forma), 2013-2014 (Units) ....................................... 38
16: Global FDD LTE eNodeB Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units) .................................................. 39
17: Global TDD LTE eNodeB Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units) .................................................. 41
18: Global TDD LTE eNodeB Market Share (Pro Forma), 2013-2014 (Units) ................................ 42
19: Global LTE eNodeB BTS Market Share by Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units)............................... 43
20: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share, FDD vs. TDD, 2013-2014 (Units) ..................................... 45
21: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................... 46
22: Global LTE eNodeB Forecast, FDD vs. TDD, 2015-2019 (Units) ............................................ 50
23: Global LTE eNodeB Forecast, FDD vs. TDD, 2015-2019 (% Market Share) ............................ 50
24: Global LTE eNodeB Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) ................................................. 51
25: Global LTE eNodeB Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (% Market Share) .................................. 51
26: Global LTE eNodeB Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (% Growth YoY) .................................... 52
27: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units) ................................................... 55
28: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share (Pro Forma), 2013-2014 (Units) ................................. 56
29: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share by Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................... 57
30: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) ......................... 59
31: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) ............................................ 63
32: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (% Market Share) ............................ 63
33: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (% YoY Growth)............................... 63
34: Global GSM BTS Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units)............................................................. 66
35: Global GSM BTS Market Share (Pro Forma), 2013-2014 (Units) ........................................... 66
36: Global GSM BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) ................................... 68
37: Global GSM BTS Market Share by Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) ......................................... 69
38: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) ..................................................... 73
39: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (% Market Share)...................................... 73
40: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (% YoY Growth) ........................................ 73
41: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units).................................................... 76
42: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) .......................... 77
43: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share by Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) ................................ 79
44: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) ............................................ 83
45: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (% Market Share)............................. 83
46: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (% YoY Growth) ............................... 83
47: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by Region, 2015-2019 (Units) .............................................. 84
48: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by Region, 2015-2019 (% Market Share) .............................. 86
49: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by Region, 2015-2019 (% YoY Growth)................................. 86
50: Brazil/Russia/India/China BTS Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) ................................................ 97
51: Brazil/Russia/India/China BTS Forecast, 2015-2019 (% Market Share)................................. 97
52: Global cRFM vs. dRRU BTS Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................................ 102
53: Global dRRU BTS Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units) ......................................................... 104
54: Global dRRU BTS Market Share (Pro Forma), 2013-2014 (Units)........................................ 105
55: Global cRFM BTS Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units).......................................................... 106
56: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by BTS Type, 2015-2019 (Units) ........................................ 107
57: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by BTS Type, 2015-2019 (% Market Share)......................... 107
58: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by BTS Type, 2015-2019 (% YoY Growth) ........................... 107
59: Global RRU Market Share, 2013-2014 (Units).................................................................. 109
60: Global RRU Market Share (Pro Forma), 2013-2014 (Units) ................................................ 110
61: Alcatel-Lucent BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) .................... 114
62: Alcatel-Lucent BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2013-2014 (Units) .................................... 114
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Ericsson BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2014(Units) .............................. 117
Ericsson BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................................ 117
Nokia Networks BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) .................. 123
Nokia Networks BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2013-2014 (Units) .................................. 123
Samsung BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) ........................... 126
Samsung BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2013-2014 (Units) ........................................... 126
ZTE BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) ................................... 129
ZTE BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2013-2014 (Units)................................................... 129
Nokia+Alcatel-Lucent BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) .......... 132
Nokia+Alcatel-Lucent BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2013-2014 (Units) .......................... 132
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EXHIBITS
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1: Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units)................................................................. 10
2: Pro Forma Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2013-2014 (Units) ......................................... 11
3: Global BTS Forecast 2015-2019, (% YoY Growth).............................................................. 12
4: Comparison of 2014 Global BTS Forecast vs. Actual Shipments ........................................... 18
5: Global BTS Shipments, 2013-2014 (Units) ........................................................................ 18
6: Global BTS Market Share by Air Interface, 2014 (Units) ..................................................... 20
7: Global BTS Market Share by Technology Generation, 2014 (Units)....................................... 21
8: Global UMTS BTS Market Share by Technology, 2014 (Units) .............................................. 22
9: Global BTS Market Share by Air Interface, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................................. 22
10: Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units) ............................................................... 23
11: Pro Forma Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2013-2014 (Units) ....................................... 24
12: Global BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) ........................................ 25
13: Global BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2014 (Units)................................................. 26
14: Global BTS Forecast 2015-2019, (% YoY Growth) ............................................................ 27
15: Global BTS Shipment Forecast, Prior vs. Current, 2015-2019 (Units).................................. 28
16: Global BTS Shipment Historical Trend, 2002-2014, (% YoY Growth) .................................. 28
17: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2015-2019 (% Market Share)................................... 33
18: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface, 2019 (% Market Share) ........................................... 34
19: Comparison of 2014 Global LTE eNodeB Forecast vs. Actual Shipments .............................. 36
20: Global LTE eNodeB Shipments, 2013-2014 (Units) ........................................................... 36
21: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units).................................................... 37
22: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2014 (Units).................................. 38
23: Global FDD LTE eNodeB Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units)............................................. 39
24: Global FDD LTE eNodeB Market Share (Pro Forma), 2013-2014 (Units) .............................. 40
25: Global FDD LTE eNodeB Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2014 (Units) ........................... 40
26: Global TDD LTE eNodeB Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units)............................................. 41
27: Global TDD LTE eNodeB Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2014 (Units)........................... 42
28: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share by Frequency, 2014 (Units) ........................................... 44
29: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share by Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) ................................... 44
30: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share, FDD vs. TDD, 2014 (Units) ........................................... 45
31: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................. 46
32: Global LTE eNodeB Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2014 (Units) ..................................... 47
33: Global LTE eNodeB Forecast 2015-2019, (% YoY Growth)................................................. 48
34: Global LTE eNodeB Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) .............................................................. 49
35: Global LTE eNodeB Forecast, Prior vs. Current, 2015-2019 (Units)..................................... 49
36: Global LTE eNodeB Forecast, FDD vs. TDD, 2015-2019 (Units) .......................................... 50
37: Global LTE eNodeB Shipment Forecast by Frequency Band Groupings, 2015-2019 (Units)..... 52
38: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipments, 2013-2014 (Units) ..................................................... 54
39: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units) .............................................. 55
40: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2014 (Units) ............................ 56
41: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share by Frequency, 2014 (Units) ...................................... 58
42: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share by Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) ............................. 58
43: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) ....................... 59
44: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2014 (Units)................................ 60
45: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019, (% YoY Growth)............................ 61
46: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) .......................................... 62
47: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, Prior vs. Current, 2015-2019 (Units)................. 62
48: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) .......................................... 64
49: Comparison of 2014 GSM BTS Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) ................................. 65
50: Global GSM BTS Shipments, 2013-2014 (Units)............................................................... 65
51: Global GSM BTS Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units) ....................................................... 67
52: Global GSM BTS Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2014 (Units)...................................... 67
53: Global GSM BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) ................................. 68
54: Global GSM BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2014 (Units) ......................................... 69
55: Global GSM BTS Market Share by Frequency, 2014 (Units) ............................................... 70
56: Global GSM BTS Market Share by Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) ....................................... 70
57: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019, (% YoY Growth) ..................................... 71
58: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) ................................................... 72
59: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, Prior vs. Current, 2015-2019 (Units) .......................... 73
60: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) ................................................... 74
61: Comparison of 2014 CDMA2000 BTS Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) ........................ 75
62: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipments, 2013-2014 (Units)...................................................... 76
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63: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share by OEM, 2014 (Units) .............................................. 77
64: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2013-2014 (Units) ........................ 78
65: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2014 (Units) ................................ 78
66: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share by Frequency, 2014 (Units) ...................................... 79
67: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share by Frequency, 2013-2014 (Units) .............................. 80
68: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (% YoY Growth) ............................. 81
69: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) .......................................... 82
70: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, Prior vs. Current, 2015-2019 (Units) ................. 82
71: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) .......................................... 83
72: Global BTS Market Share by Region, 2014 (Units)............................................................ 85
73: North & Latin America BTS Forecast by Region, 2015-2019 (Units) .................................... 89
74: Western & Eastern Europe BTS Forecast by Region, 2015-2019 (Units) .............................. 91
75: Africa & Middle East BTS Forecast by Region, 2015-2019 (Units) ....................................... 93
76: Asia Pacific BTS Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) .................................................................. 97
77: Brazil/Russia/India/China BTS Market Share, 2014 (Units)................................................ 98
78: Brazil/Russia/India/China BTS Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) .............................................. 98
79: Brazil BTS Shipment Forecast 2015-2019 (Units)............................................................. 99
80: Russia BTS Shipment Forecast 2015-2019 (Units) ........................................................... 99
81: China BTS Shipment Forecast 2015-2019 (Units)........................................................... 100
82: India BTS Shipment Forecast 2015-2019 (Units) ........................................................... 100
83: China & India BTS Shipment Forecast 2015-2019 (Units)................................................ 101
84: Traditional cRFM vs. dRRU BTS Market Share, 2014 (Units) ............................................ 103
85: Global BTS Market Share, cRFM vs. dRRU, 2013-2014 (Units) ......................................... 103
86: Global dRRU BTS Market Share, 2014 (Units) ................................................................ 104
87: Global dRRU BTS Market Share (Pro Forma), 2014 (Units) .............................................. 105
88: Global cRFM BTS Market Share, 2014 (Units) ................................................................ 106
89: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by BTS Type, 2015-2019 (Units) ...................................... 107
90: Global RRU Shipment Forecast, 2015-2019 (Units) ........................................................ 108
91: Global RRU Market Share, 2014 (Units) ........................................................................ 109
92: Global RRU Market Share (Pro Forma), 2014 (Units) ...................................................... 110
93: Global RRU Shipments by Air Interface, 2014 (Units) ..................................................... 111
94: Alcatel-Lucent BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units) ........................... 115
95: Alcatel-Lucent BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2014 (Units)........................................... 115
96: Ericsson BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units) ................................... 118
97: Ericsson BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2014 (Units) ................................................... 118
98: Huawei BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units) .................................... 121
99: Huawei BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2014 (Units) .................................................... 121
100: Nokia Networks BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units) ....................... 124
101: Nokia Networks BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2014 (Units)....................................... 124
102: Samsung BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units) ................................ 127
103: Samsung BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2014 (Units)................................................ 127
104: ZTE BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units)........................................ 130
105: ZTE BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2014 (Units) ....................................................... 130
106: Nokia+Alcatel-Lucent BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, 2014 (Units) ............... 133
107: Nokia+Alcatel-Lucent BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2014 (Units)............................... 133
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