Obesity and Alcoholism: Behavioural Policies Luc Bovens Dublin 11 May 2015 Data Total Alcohol Consumption > 15 yr olds 2005 (WHO) Russia 15.76 lt Ireland 14.41 lt UK 13.37 lt Overweight or Obese (WHO & UK Health Forum) Men Women 2015 2030 2015 2030 Ireland 74% 89% 57% 85% UK 70% 73% 59% 63% “Ireland leads the trend but UK figures also worsening” (Guardian 6 May 2015) Sugar and Fat: Taxation “A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups.” Briggs, A.D.M et al. BMJ 2013 British Soft Drinks Association “This is a poorly thought out political proposal which will hit the poorest hardest while doing nothing to curb obesity, the causes of which are far more complex than this simplistic approach implies. In fact evidence from France shows that while sales of soft drinks initially fell after a tax was introduced in 2012, they have increased since (…)” Gavin Partington, BSDA Director General Field Experiments  Denmark  Fat Tax: Oct 2011 - Nov 2012  Border crossings, no effect, bureaucratic nightmare, Danish jobs at risk, strain on household budgets  Mexico  Tax on sugar-sweetened beverages  10% reduction in consumption due to increased costs and awareness raising Alcohol: Taxation and Pricing  Increase excise taxes  Minimum Unit Pricing  Ban on Deep Discounting Effect of Excise Taxes Minimum Unit Pricing  Sheffield study recommendation: 50p MUP  Substantial effect on alcohol related-deaths, disease burden, violence, domestic abuse and road accidents   Scotland June 2012 Ireland (Cabinet Feb 2015)  Challenge by Scottish Whiskey Association  Price increase in off trade on ¾ of sales  Penalises responsive drinkers  No effect on heavy drinkers  European Court of Justice 6 May 2015  => WAIT one fortnight! England and Wales: Ban on Deep Discounting Beverages Roughly equivalent to MUP of Cider 10p Beer 20p Wine 30p Spirits 35p Nudge according to Hoyle  Change in choice architecture  No restriction on range of choices  Behavioural mechanisms  In the interest of the Nudgee Soft Policies  Alternatives to Taxation and Price Controls      Change choice architecture Change minds Change hearts Control supply side Stimulate new trends Change Choice Architecture  Research alternative choice architectures  Pubs      Standard pint for beer and cider is too large Certainly for continental beers of > 5% Low and non-alcoholic beers on tap Time of payment and rounds Supermarkets   Placement Introduce attractive 3% beer Change Minds  Relevant or convincing information?    Two out of three drivers in accidents are drunk Half a bottle of wine per day increases chance of liver cirrhosis with factor 7 Heart disease?    Two large glasses of wine increase chance of hypertension with factor 2 …but it reduces the chance of coronary heart disease with factor .2 Social class, consumption and morbidity Change Hearts Control Supply Side  Bloomberg  Court strikes down ban on super-sized drinks in restaurants, theatres,…  American Beverage Association    Mixify Campaign Balance Calories Initiative Monitor targets Stimulate New Trends BUILD CHAMPS  Stimulate Cool new trends  Change  Change  Change  Control  Control Hearts Architecture Minds Prices Supply side  Corrao G1, Bagnardi V, Zambon A, La Vecchia C. A meta- analysis of alcohol consumption and the risk of 15 diseases. Prev Med. 2004 May;38(5):613-9.  Corrao G1, Bagnardi V, Zambon A, La Vecchia C. A meta- analysis of alcohol consumption and the risk of 15 diseases. Prev Med. 2004 May;38(5):613-9. Business panders to fears  Aspartame => Sucralose switch