Nivesh Commodity
6th May, 2015
Daily Change & Technical levels
Scrip
Ankit Kapoor
Sr. Research Analyst
Mobile: +91-7389934302
Tel: +91-0731-4262702
[email protected]
Close
% Chg
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2
Gold
Silver
26880
37958
0.04
0.28
27080
38480
27280
38930
26830
37850
26720
37440
26560
36885
Crude
NG
3857
177.10
2.80
-1.12
3920
181.20
3980
3830
184.80 178.20
3780
175.30
3730
172.50
Copper
Nickel
414.45
0.17
418.3
421.3 414.50
411.50
408.20
907.20
2.74
920.20
935.50 903.20
890.20
873.50
Comex Division
Bullions (Spot)
Last close
% change
Gold
Silver
$1192.68
$16.53
0.41
0.84
* According to 5 MAY, 2015.
1
BULLION
Bullion- Gold continues rally amid weaker dollar, widening of U.S. trade deficit
Recap
Gold futures moved slightly higher on Tuesday extending gains from one session earlier, as the dollar
weakened amid a soft batch of U.S. economic data. The U.S. trade deficit in March soared to its highest level
in more than six years, as a prolonged labor dispute at critical West Coast ports and the stronger dollar
weighed heavily on foreign trade. In its monthly report, the U.S. Department of Commerce said the nation's
trade deficit surged 43.1% to $51.4 billion, its highest level since fall of 2008. The percentage increase was
also the highest since December, 1996. Gold reached a session-high of 1,199 after the release. When
adjusted for inflation, the deficit rose $16 billion to $67.2 billion in March, up from $51.2 billion a month
earlier. March exports rose modestly to $187.8 billion, while imports skyrocketed by more than $17 billion to
$239.2 billion for the month. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a
basket of six other major currencies, fell to 95.20 following the release, after rising to 96.10 earlier in the
session. In U.S. afternoon trading, the index inched up to 95.24. Dollar-denominated commodities such as
gold become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates. The widening of the trade
deficit has led to rising concern of a contraction in the economy in the first quarter. Last week, the
Commerce Department said GDP for the first quarter rose by 0.2%, in line with paltry estimates from the
Federal Reserve of Atlanta. A surge in exports reflecting the stronger dollar served as the heaviest drag on
GDP growth, the Commerce Department said. Following its April meeting last week, the Federal Open
Market Committee reiterated that it will take a data-driven approach to the timing of its first interest rate
hike since the end of the Financial Crisis. Gold, which is not attached to interest rates or dividends, struggles
to compete with high yield-bearing assets in periods of rising rates. Elsewhere, Markit's Purchasing Managers
Index (PMI) fell to 57.4 in April, below a preliminary reading of 57.8 earlier in the month. In March, the PMI
soared to 59.2 the highest level since August. Separately, the Institute of Supply Management reported that
its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index increased to 57.8 last month, above forecasts of 56.2 and
up from 56.5 in March. Gold and silver settled on MCX division at 26880 and 37958 respectively
Technical Outlook
Source: Telequote
Today, Gold has support at 26700 and resistance 27000 while silver has support at 37400 and resistance at
38500. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for conformation
2
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ENERGY AND BASE METAL
Crude oil: Crude surges to highest level in 2015 amid Libyan shutdown, Iran debate
Recap
Crude futures surged to their highest levels of 2015 on Tuesday, bolstered by a spate of geopolitical
tensions in Northern Africa and the Middle East.In Libya, officials were forced to shut down the Zueitina oil
port near Benghazi after protesters blocked a pipeline to the export facility. The protests also forced several
oilfields in Eastern Libya to close, officials from the state-run oil firm NOC told reporter on Tuesday. It came
days after output was slashed at the Elephant oil field, another major Libyan field, adding to the nation's
dwindling production. In 2011, Libya had the largest oil reserves in Africa and one of the top 10 throughout
the world. A year earlier Libya pumped roughly 1.6 million barrels a day, a figure that has reportedly
declined to approximately 400,000 bpd amid the closures. Incensed with current working conditions, the
disgruntled workers reportedly demanded higher pay and better treatment during the protests. Elsewhere,
Republicans leaders in the Senate appeared to be at a standstill on a resolution for an Iranian Nuclear Bill
which was expected to come up for a vote later this week. While a GOP majority appears ready to reject
measures offered by Sens. Tom Cotton and Marco Rubio, little progress was made on Tuesday. Last month,
Reuters reported that Iran has 30 million barrels of oil stored in offshore tankers ready for export, after the
Persian Gulf nation agreed on the framework of a nuclear deal with Western powers. In addition, Facts
Global Energy, an energy consulting firm, has forecast that Iranian oil exports could reach a level of 1.7
million barrels per day within 12 months of a final deal, up from it current level of a million bpd. An outflow
of Iranian could depress oil prices in a global market already saturated by a glut of supply. Energy traders
await Wednesday's weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to receive a
better indication on current U.S. supply levels. Last week, the EIA reported that U.S. crude inventories rose
by 1.9 million barrels to 490.9 million, the highest level in at least 80 years. Analysts have forecast a build of
1.6 million for the week. Crude oil settled on MCX division at 3857.
Technical Review
Source: Telequote
Today, Crude oil has support at 3830---3730 and resistance at 3920. Traders can buy Crude oil in panic
around 3820---3800 with stop loss of 3730 on closing basis for the initial target of 3920
3
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Base Metal- Copper declines on stronger dollar, China growth woes
Recap
Copper prices were down for the second straight session on Tuesday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and
concerns over a slowdown in China dampened demand for the industrial metal. The U.S. dollar index, which
measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.45% to
trade at 96.03 early Tuesday. The dollar remained supported after data on Monday showed that U.S. factory
orders rose at the fastest pace in eight months in March, adding to indications that the economic recovery is
regaining momentum. New orders for U.S. factory goods rose by a larger than forecast 2.1% in March after a
revised 0.1% decline in February. The data came after economic reports late last week indicated that the U.S.
recovery had turned a corner following a recent soft patch. Meanwhile, data released Monday showed that
Chinese manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest rate in a year in April, adding to concerns over a
slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. China's HSBC final manufacturing purchasing managers'
index slipped to 48.9 in April, down from a preliminary reading of 49.2 and compared to 49.6 in the previous
month. The dismal data reinforced expectations that policymakers in Beijing will have to introduce further
stimulus measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth. Since November, the People's Bank of
China has introduced a series of stimulus measures, including lowering interest rates twice and cutting the
reserve requirement ratios of major banks twice, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth. The
Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption.
Copper settled on MCX division at 414.45
Technical Review
Source: Telequote
Today, Copper has support at 410 and resistance at 418. Below 410 will see panic till 404---400 mark else it
could test its resistance level of 418 again. Close above 418 will take to 423---427+ mark. Traders can trade
with levels only and wait for conformation
4
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AGRI COMMODITY
Edible oil: Soybean spurts to ten months high on improved demand, supply worries
Recap
Soybean climbed to over 10-month high at the closing of trades Tuesday on improvement in demand for
the bean in export market and domestic market and on supply worries for the crop in domestic and
international market. Soybean rose on improvement in demand from oil crusher in domestic market after
investors have returned from a week long holiday. Soybean prices were supported on expectation of higher
demand from China, the world's biggest bean consumer, after the People's Bank of China, took steps over
the weekend to fuel economic growth also buoyed prices for the oilseeds, since increased bank lending
there could fuel additional purchases of US supplies. Bean prices were also up as truckers in Brazil resumed
protests, analysts said, reviving a work stoppage first executed in February, when truckers in that country
blocked roads in main farming regions to protest fuel-tax increases and low wages. Prices of the bean were
also supported speculation of lower supply of the crop in local market after Indian Metrological
Department (IMD) forecasted below normal rainfall in its initial estimates. Monsoon rainfall in India may be
93% of long term average or of the 50 years average rainfall, Harsh Vardhan, Union Minister for Science &
Technology and Earth Sciences told reporters. India's weather office defines average, or normal, rainfall as
between 96%-104% of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season. The latest forecast
raises concerns for output prospects for major summer crops such as rice, cane, soybean and cotton in the
country that is a key global producer of these farm commodities. Soybean and Soya ref settled on NCDEX
division at 4232 and 602.45 respectively.
Technical Review
Source: Telequote
Today, Soybean (June) has support at 4150 and resistance at 4350 and Soya ref (June) has support at 590
and resistance at 610. Traders can buy Soyabean in panic around 4220—4200 with stop loss of 4150 on
closing basis for the initial target of 4350.
5
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