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Nivesh Commodity
22nd May, 2015
Daily Change & Technical levels
Ankit Kapoor
Sr. Research Analyst
Mobile: +91-7389934302
Tel: +91-0731-4262702
[email protected]
Scrip
Close
% Chg
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2
Gold
Silver
27108
39166
-0.65
- 0.32
27240
39384
27350
39666
27140
39216
27020
38810
26880
38550
Crude
NG
3861
188.40
2.28
1.29
3930
191.20
3980
3830
194.80 188.20
3770
185.30
3710
182.50
Copper
Nickel
402.85
0.51
405.3
408.3 402.00
399.50
396.20
827.90
-0.71
842.20
855.50 833.20
817.20
805.50
Comex Division
Bullions (Spot)
Last close
% change
Gold
Silver
$1206.25
$17.15
-0.25
0.29
* According to 21 MAY, 2015.
1
BULLION
Bullion- Gold remains in holding pattern, as disappointing global data weighs
Recap
Gold futures fell mildly on Thursday amid downbeat economic data in the US, Europe and China, as metal
traders digested Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve's April meeting, which provided further
indications of a delayed interest rate hike. In the U.S., new jobless claims inched up last week by 10,000 to
274,000, after the figure remained in the 260,000 range over the previous three weeks. Still, the four-week
average fell by 5,500 to 266,250, moving lower for the fourth straight week. When the Federal Open Market
Committee released the minutes from its April meeting on Wednesday, the majority of its members did not
support a June interest rate, according to the minutes. The Fed reiterated that it will take a "data-driven"
approach to its when it is reasonably confident it has seen significant improvements in the economy. The Fed
blamed weak first quarter GDP growth on "largely transitory factors" such as severe winter weather and a
West Coast port slowdown that dented exports. Historically, economic growth has been comparatively weak
in the first quarter in recent years, the FOMC added. Investors await the release of Friday's Consumer Price
Index for more hints on the Fed's next move. In April, the FOMC said consumer price inflation continued to
fall below its long-term targeted goal of 2%. Medium-term forecasts for inflation, which the Fed generally
defines as the next two years, projected to "move closer but remained" below the FOMC's 2% goal.
Economists expect the CPI to increase modestly for April on a monthly basis by 0.1%. Gold, which is not
attached to dividends or interest rates, struggles to compete with high yield bearing assets in periods of
rising rates. On the other side, the Chinese HSBC-Markit manufacturing PMI index for May increased slightly
to 49.1, below forecasts of 49.3. A reading below 50 signals contraction in the sector. The reading also
provided indications that deflationary pressures are increasing, fueling speculation of the possibility for
additional stimulus measures by the People's Bank of China. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, 1 KG of 99.99%
gold ticked down 0.62 yuan to 241.79. China is the world's largest consumer and second-largest producer of
gold. Gold and silver settled on MCX division at 27108 and 39166 respectively
Technical Outlook
Source: Telequote
Today, Gold has support at 27050 and resistance 27350 while silver has support at 38800 and resistance at
39600. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation
2
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Nivesh Daily Commodity
ENERGY AND BASE METAL
Crude oil: U.S. crude surges above $60 a barrel, as supply concerns ease
Recap
Crude futures soared on Thursday extending gains from one session earlier, amid easing concerns of
oversupply and continued fighting in the Middle East. U.S. crude futures rebounded on Wednesday when
they gained more than 1.7% on the session, WTI crude closed down on five of its previous six sessions to
dip below $58 a barrel. It came days after the U.S. benchmark for crude capped an extended rally by
reaching a five-month high at $62.75 on May 13. Energy traders continued to digest Wednesday's draw
when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 2.7 million barrels for
the week ending May 15, above estimates of a 2.1 million decline. U.S. crude inventories still remain at
482.2 million barrels, according to the EIA – its highest level at this time of year in at least 80 years. In a
positive development for energy companies, crude stockpiles have declined for three consecutive weeks
amid increased refinery demand, as summer driving season nears. At the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma, the
nation's largest storage facility of crude, storage capacity remains near 80%, according to Gens cape, Inc. In
April, the figure hovered around 90%, exacerbating concerns that the U.S. could reach full storage capacity.
Investors will keep a close eye on crude output in Alaska after last week's draw of 112,000 barrels per day.
The slowdown surprised a number of analysts, which expected production declines to be concentrated
among U.S. shale fields. Alaskan crude is more expensive than its counterpart in the lower 48 states.
Tensions increased in the Middle East after the Islamic State seized the historic Syrian city of Palmyra.
Following the advance, ISIS fighters reported controlled about 40% of Syrian territory, including almost all
of its oil fields. Investors await Friday's weekly U.S. rig count from oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI)
for further indications on supply level nationwide. Last week, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S.
fell by eight to 660, marking the 23rd consecutive weekly decline. Crude oil settled on MCX division at 3861.
Technical Review
Source: Telequote
Today, Crude oil has support at 3780---3700 and resistance at 3930---3980. Either side break or close with
volume will decide further. Till then traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for
confirmation
3
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Nivesh Daily Commodity
Base Metal- Copper fluctuate between small gain and losses, ECB conference in Focus
Recap
Copper traded between small gain and losses on Thursday though slightly positive on demand hope from
China as investors expects further stimulus measures from the central bank and as investors bought back
oversold position after prices dropped to over two-week low on Wednesday also Friday’s ECB press
conference in Focus. Prices of base metals were supported as further slowdown in China manufacturing
sector boost investors expectation of fresh stimulus measures from China's Central Bank. China
manufacturing data slowed in May triggering growth concerns in the Asia's biggest economy, preliminary
data showed. China flash manufacturing PMI came at 49.1 in May lower than analysts' estimate of 49.3 and
48.9 a month ago, a preliminary data by HSBC showed. China is the world's largest consumer of copper
accounting for about 40% of total global demand and major consumer of other industrial metals. Red metal
prices were also supported on buying at lower level after prices plunged to two-week low on Wednesday.
Prices of base metals were also supported as weak dollar against other currencies boosts investors' appetite
for the dollar-denominated commodities. Base metals prices were also supported on lower stockpiles of
metals on London Metal Exchange (LME), indicating tight supply situation. Copper stockpiles dropped by
2,125 tons to 334,875 tons and lead inventories slipped by 250 tons, LME data showed. Copper settled on
MCX division at 402.85
Technical Review
Source: Telequote
Copper has support at 400 will see panic till 405--- 409. Break and close below 400 will take to 396---392 and
then to 388 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 405---409 again. Traders can trade in
a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation
4
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Nivesh Daily Commodity
AGRI COMMODITY
Edible oil: Soybean snaps two days fall on supply worries, improved demand
Recap
Soybean snapped two-day fall at the closing of trades Thursday on supply worries in domestic and global
market and on improvement in demand. Prices of the bean were supported after India's agriculture
ministry cut its estimates for soybean production, indicating tight supply situation. As per third advance
estimates, India soybean production is reduced to 10.7 million tons compared to 11.64 million tons in
second estimate, due to lower average yields resulting from an unusually short monsoon season. Soybean
prices were also supported after United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its World's Agriculture
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report trimmed decreased 2014-15 United States soybean
production forecast. The USDA trimmed US 2014-15 production estimates to 104.8 million tons compared
to 108 million tons in the previous month estimates and 108 million tons a year ago. Prices of the soybean
were also supported on improvement in demand from oil crusher in domestic market for ongoing wedding
season. Soybean and Soya ref settled on NCDEX division at 4053 and 598.35 respectively.
Technical Review
Source: Telequote
Today, Soybean (June) has support at 3960 and resistance at 4100---4180 and Soya ref (June) has support at
590 and resistance at 600---610. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation
5
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Nivesh Daily Commodity
DAILY AGRI COMMODITY PIVOT LEVELS
Scrip
Soyabean
Soyaref
Rmseed
Chana
Jeera
Turmeric
Dhaniya
Castorseed
Cocudakl
Mentha oil
CPO
Close
% Chg
R1
4093
603
R2
4122
607
Pivot
4054
597
S2
3986
590
S1
4025
594
4073
4629
18445
7995
11317
3870
1748
4118
4661
18620
8047
11623
3892
1763
893
443
898
447
4053
598.35
0.84
0.30
4153
4683
18730
8100
11928
3909
1774
0.80
-0.23
0.29
0.17
3.99
-0.33
-1.72
4193
4732
4223
4771
18950
8175
12081
3941
1802
19105
8251
12233
3968
1826
4148
4700
18775
8123
11775
3919
1787
907.20
449.70
-1.89
0.20
913
453
923
457
908
450
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