Ironbark GTP Global Equity Thematic Fund Monthly Investment Report March 2015 The Fund returned -0.06% gross (-0.14% net) for the month, underperforming the benchmark by 0.95% gross (1.03% net) Performance review and outlook After a positive start to the year, the Fund lagged global markets in March, posting returns in line with its respective benchmark for the first quarter. For the month, Supply Chain Dominance, Market Hedge and Bottom Billion were the primary detractors with Real-Life Renaissance and Personalised Medicine being among the contributors. The Supply Chain Dominance theme primarily detracted due to the Fund’s holdings in iron ore producer Vale and copper miner Freeport McMoRan. These were offset by positive developments from Samsung Electronics and Westlake Chemical Corp. Vale shares dropped amid continued decline in the iron ore price. Prices have been falling due to the continued deterioration in Chinese economic data and the lack of visible restocking. Balance sheet concerns have come to the forefront given the decline in margins, reducing the free cash flow available for deleveraging. Vale is working on a number of divestitures to raise cash this year, and its cost position has already started to improve. Freeport shares were also affected by Chinese economic concerns and by falling US oil prices that adversely impacted the company’s energy business. The investment manager believes that these near term demand concerns overshadow the continued downward revisions in copper supply forecasts. The investment manager believes the market will move into a deficit in the second half of 2015, boding well for future copper price rises. Elsewhere, Samsung Electronics outperformed after unveiling its latest smartphone, the Galaxy S6 Edge, which highlighted the innovation potential within the company and the expectation for margin expansion. Westlake performed well as the decline in US crude prices decelerated and the ethylene market tightened, with significant supply outages. Westlake should also benefit from the impact of previously announced price hikes in the vinyls chain. The investment manager believes that the company is well positioned from an earnings perspective, even in a low energy price environment and that its valuation has significant scope to expand. Newmont Mining, the major gold miner and part of the Fund’s Market Hedge theme, declined during the month following profit taking with market expectations of an interest rate hike in the US occurring sooner than previously expected following strong payroll numbers. The shares have performed strongly since the beginning of the year, following the announcement of further quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Furthermore, Newmont has been reacting to lower gold prices by reducing costs. If gold stays at or above the current range there is, in the investment manager’s view, upside to consensus estimates leading to good free cash flow generation, which can reduce leverage further. The Bottom Billion theme was negatively impacted by its holdings in Ambev, the Brazilian based brewer with operations in various emerging countries. This was principally due to a weakening Brazilian Real although the share price in local currency terms continued to rise. Management remains confident of reaching full year targets of mid to high single digit revenue growth, which could translate into double digit EBITDA growth. Performance Fund size: $689.0 million Exit Price: $1.9460 Inception date: 4 Oct 1996 1 month 3 months 6 months Calendar year to date Financial year to date 1 year 2 years (pa) 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa) 7 years (pa) 10 years (pa) Since commencement of Fund* (pa) Gross Fund Return (%) -0.06 9.68 18.47 9.68 21.89 26.01 29.51 22.01 12.05 6.29 7.58 8.52 Net Fund Return (%) -0.14 9.44 17.94 9.44 21.07 24.88 28.36 20.92 11.05 5.34 6.62 7.55 Benchmark (%) 0.89 9.57 18.51 9.57 25.31 29.11 31.89 24.44 14.32 7.77 6.48 6.35 Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Gross performance figures are calculated using exit prices, pre-fees and reflect the annual reinvestment of distribution. Net performance figures are calculated using exit prices, net of fees and reflect the annual reinvestment of distribution. Retail investors should refer to net returns. If investing through an IDPS Provider, the total after fees performance return of your investment in the Fund may be different from the information in this report. *This figure represents the annualised performance of the Fund from the first full month of operation. Inception date: 4 December 1996. 1 Top 10 holdings Stock Samsung Electronics Co Ambev adidas Dow Chemical Company Amazon.com Inv Freeport-McMoRan Inc Vodafone Group Vale UniCredit Thermo Fisher Scientific Country South Korea Brazil Germany United States United States United States United Kingdom Brazil Italy United States Theme Supply Chain Dominance Bottom Billion Real Life Renaissance Supply Chain Dominance Supply Chain Dominance Supply Chain Dominance Disequilibria Supply Chain Dominance Market-Implied Distress Personalised Medicine % of equity 2.91 2.66 2.64 2.61 2.47 2.33 2.16 2.14 2.12 1.89 (Data in AUD) Key contributors and detractors for the month Contributors Detractors Stock Samsung Electronics Co Ping An Insurance Group UBS Group Westlake Chemical Corporation Starwood Hotels & Resorts Adidas Thermo Fisher Scientific Julius Baer Gruppe Roche Holding Ltd JD.com Inc Theme Supply Chain Dominance Bottom Billion Disequilibria Supply Chain Dominance Real Life Renaissance Real Life Renaissance Personalised Medicine Disequilibria Personalised Medicine Supply Chain Dominance Contribution (%) 0.21 0.17 0.17 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 Stock Vale Freeport-McMoRan Ambev SA Sponsored Newmont Mining Corporation Deutsche Post Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Tullow Oil Barrick Gold Corporation LATAM Airlines Group Vodafone Group Theme Supply Chain Dominance Supply Chain Dominance Bottom Billion Market Hedge Supply Chain Dominance Global Agribusiness Disequilibria Market Hedge Supply Chain Dominance Disequilibria Contribution (%) -0.57 -0.28 -0.24 -0.17 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.10 -0.09 -0.09 (Data in AUD) Theme distribution & contribution Theme Real Life Renaissance Personalised Medicine Disequilibria Market-Implied Distressed Future Of Money Sufficiency Talent & Ingenuity Indian Ocean Bottom Billion Market Hedge Global Agribusiness Supply Chain Dominance % of Fund 8.88 10.26 20.01 4.32 1.81 2.28 6.99 0.78 14.08 3.12 3.90 23.57 (Data in AUD, ex cash) 2 Contribution to return (%) 0.39 0.37 0.18 0.16 0.06 0.05 -0.04 -0.06 -0.11 -0.19 -0.20 -0.60 Performance review and outlook (continued) Furthermore, the investment manager sees significant opportunity to decrease costs in some areas. Ping An and China Life, both major Chinese insurance companies, were among the positive contributors to performance after reporting strong growth in earnings, embedded value and new business gains for 2014. The investment manager expects this to continue with structural changes between Mainland China and Hong Kong trading to add to the catalysts. The Real Life Renaissance theme benefited from its holdings in Starwood Hotels & Resorts and Moncler. A change of management at Starwood raised expectations for a shift towards an asset light business model through the accelerated sale of hotel properties. Moncler, the high end Italian winter outerwear manufacturer and retailer, outperformed after reporting strong earnings for last year and own store sales well above market expectations. The Personalised Medicine theme contributed to performance due to its holdings in Thermo Fisher Scientific and Intrexon, among others. Thermo Fisher reported organic sales growth of 6% for quarter four 2014, the highest in the industry and the company’s management expects further market share gains based on its product portfolio and geographic reach. Intrexon, the provider of synthetic biology services, announced an exclusive strategic collaboration and license agreement to develop and commercialise particular targeted cancer therapies with Merck Serono, the biopharmaceutical business of Merck KGaA. Merck Serono agreed to pay Intrexon $115 million upfront, with potential for a further $826 million in respect of development, regulatory and commercial milestones and tiered royalties on product sales. Geographical distribution Country Austria Bahrain Belgium Bermuda Brazil Canada Chile China Colombia Denmark Egypt Finland France Germany Hong Kong India Ireland Israel % of Fund 0.29 0.20 0.00 0.90 7.63 2.51 0.29 5.85 0.38 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.23 11.19 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.00 % of Benchmark 0.08 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.00 3.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.00 0.35 3.88 3.80 1.25 0.00 0.14 0.24 Country Italy Japan Korea Netherlands New Zealand Norway Peru Philippines Portugal Singapore South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States Cash % of Fund 3.19 0.00 3.63 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.50 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.00 0.68 6.51 0.29 6.77 43.14 1.64 % of Benchmark 0.93 8.86 0.00 1.09 0.06 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.58 0.00 1.42 1.23 3.69 0.00 7.88 59.25 0.00 (Data in AUD) Important information Contact details Client Services: 1800 034 402 Client.Services@ ironbarkam.com www.ironbarkam.com Issued by Ironbark Asset Management Pty Limited ABN 53 136 679 420 AFSL 341020 (“Ironbark”). Data as at 31 March 2015. This document is not an offer of securities or financial products, nor is it financial product advice. As this document has been prepared without taking account of any investors’ particular objectives, financial situation and needs, you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. The Ironbark GTP Global Equity Thematic Fund is issued by Ironbark Asset Management (Fund Services) Limited ABN 63 116 232 154 AFSL 298626. To acquire units in the Fund, complete the application form that accompanies the current PDS, which you can obtain from www.ironbarkam.com or by calling client services on 1800 034 402. You should consider the PDS in deciding to acquire or to continue to hold units in the Fund. Although specific information has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, we offer no guarantees as to its accuracy or completeness. The information stated, opinions expressed and estimates given constitute best judgement at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice to you. Consequently, although this document is provided in good faith, it is not intended to create any legal liability on the part of Ironbark or any other entity and does not vary the terms of a relevant disclosure statement. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. All dollars are Australian dollars unless otherwise specified. 3
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