1. home and garden

Supporting Scotland’s Growth
Housing: Location as a Barrier to Housing Delivery
in the Central Belt?
June 2015
Executive Summary
Housing delivery across the Edinburgh and Glasgow city-region is critical to
Scotland’s future; these areas make up 60% of Scotland’s total population
and almost two thirds of future population and economic growth is projected to
occur here. This report provides a high level analysis of the alignment between
locational areas of demand and the supply (allocation) of housing sites across
the Strategic Development Plan (SDP) areas of Edinburgh and Glasgow cityregions.
Recent net completions have been significantly below projections of future need
and housing requirements identified in the SDPs remain lower than pre-recession
levels. A sufficient supply of deliverable and developable land is required to
support increased delivery in line with the requirements identified in SDPs.
Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners (NLP) has produced a Market Strength Index (MSI)
– a composite index of housing demand and market strength – which, brought
together with future housing supply (allocations), highlights problems ahead for
implementation of current Plans.
The MSI shows around 42% of housing capacity on proposed allocations across
the Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions are in the strongest market areas with
greatest prospects of delivery. However, 37% of allocations are located within
weak market areas, which present higher levels of risk for the private sector and
militate against their development.
Local variations within SDP areas highlight acute local challenges in the future
for implementation of housing allocations. Proposals for housing, particularly
within the first five years of a plan period, need to be focused on the right sites
in the right places, with a sharp and realistic eye on deliverability, as part of a
trajectory-based approach. Proposals with less certainty over deliverability – such
as those in regeneration areas or with challenging infrastructure hurdles – will
often be appropriate longer term allocations, but should not be relied upon to
achieve outputs they cannot realistically deliver.
This document forms part of a wider suite of research reports being
developed by NLP which explore a range of topical Scottish planning
issues.
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
ii
The Research in Figures
60%
64%
of Scotland’s total population
live in the Edinburgh and
Glasgow city-regions
of Scotland’s population and
job growth is projected to
occur in the Edinburgh and
Glasgow city-regions
153,000
11,805
new homes are projected to be
required across the Edinburgh
and Glasgow city-regions by
2025 (2012-based household
projections)
annual shortfall of housing
delivery against SDP
requirement
130,190
48%
dwelling capacity of current
housing allocations across the
Edinburgh and Glasgow
city-regions
capacity of allocations in the
weakest market areas across
the Clydeplan
(Glasgow city-region) area
28%
capacity of allocations in the
weakest market areas across
the SESplan
(Edinburgh city-region) area
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
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Introduction
This is the second instalment in our Supporting
Scotland’s Growth series. In the previous report, we
provided an overview of the ‘Economic Benefits of
Increasing Housing Delivery’ to the Scottish economy. In
this report, we continue to offer strategic analysis of the
Scottish house building industry specifically focusing on
delivery across the Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions.
House building in Scotland - and across much of the UK
- declined significantly during the recession. There are
signs of delivery rates recovering, but a substantial gap
remains between the supply of new homes and the level
of housing needed to sustain a prosperous economic
future for Scotland.
At present, house building in Scotland remains
around 60% of the rate at the ‘peak’ of the market (in
2007/08). During the recession, building rates slumped
due to the restricted availability of credit for both
developers and house buyers - builders couldn’t build
and buyers couldn’t buy. Even now, it is more difficult to
secure finance to deliver and purchase new homes than
it used to be. Recent research suggests that aspiring
home-owners anticipate that they will be 33 years old
before they buy their first home.1
The Scottish Government has recognised the need
to stimulate the market, particularly in respect of the
growing affordability crisis, and it has a commitment to
deliver 30,000 new affordable homes by the end of the
Parliament. Help to Buy has helped to support increased
housing delivery rates and has been extended to include
smaller building companies. However, already for 2015,
monies are reported to be running out.
Is planning part of the problem? Strategic Development
Plans (SDP) and Local Development Plans (LDP) have
set relatively high housing requirement figures, but are
not delivering on them. If the ‘new normal’ for housing
delivery is one of market constraint, is the planning
system allocating the wrong land in the wrong places?
This research carried out in-house by Nathaniel Lichfield
& Partners (NLP) tests the hypothesis that current
planning allocations for residential development will
not necessarily guarantee the delivery of housing of the
scale required to meet the identified need. It explores
the notion that allocating land for housing is more than
just a numbers game and that delivery will happen
more readily in areas where people want to live than in
locations where the quality of place does not live up to
the expectations of potential buyers.
Do SDPs and LDPs need to focus more on deliverability
and viability challenges? Do they recognise that
timescales for achieving development vary across
different areas? Do they accept that quality as well as
quantity is important when allocating housing land?
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
1
Focusing on the Edinburgh
and Glasgow City-Regions
Research Approach
This research explores these issues as they apply
across the Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions.
Delivery of housing here is critical to Scotland’s future.
The Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions make up
almost 60% of the total population in Scotland. Their
population is projected to grow by 300,000 people by
2037, an increase of 9.5%. This growth corresponds
to almost 64% of the total population growth projected
across Scotland over the same period; a pattern
reflected in future household projections.
Edinburgh and Glasgow are key drivers of the Scottish
economy. The economy of the Edinburgh and Glasgow
city-region currently supports 1.4 million2 jobs, some
60% of the nation’s total. Current economic forecasts
estimate jobs growth of 95,0003 by 2025, some 64% of
total job growth across Scotland. If this growth potential
is to be delivered, a boost to housing delivery must be
part of the equation.
NLP has reviewed current rates of housing delivery
across the Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions against
household projections and the housing requirements
proposed in SDPs.
We have then applied a range of socio-economic and
market datasets to create a market strength index (MSI)
for the Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions which is used
to categorise every postal code sector geography. Finally
we have overlaid this analysis with the current housing
allocations in adopted LDPs to see whether Plans are
proposing developments in locations with the greatest
prospect of market delivery.
Figure 1: Geographic context of research
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
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The Supply of New Homes
Housing Delivery in the Central Belt
The table below compares rates of housing delivery
against two measures of the demand for homes for
the areas covered by the Glasgow and Clyde Valley
SDP (Clydeplan) and the South East Scotland SDP
(SESplan):
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Gross Completions
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2009-10
2010-11
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
0
1997-98
5,000
1996-98
Recent gross and net completions data suggests that
delivery rates have bottomed out and are beginning to
stabilise (Fig 2). Indeed, it can be seen that a modest
uplift in activity was observed in 2013/14, with net
completions4 increasing from 10,890 in 2012/13 to
13,230.
Figure 2: Net and Gross Housing Completions 1996/7 to 2013/14
Completions
Historic rates of housing delivery in Scotland have been
analysed by NLP. The data shows that net residential
completions have averaged 12,800 per annum over the
past five years - significantly below both projections of
future housing need (20,300 per annum) and current
housing requirement figures in Strategic Development
Plans (22,510 per annum).
Net Completions
Source: Scottish Government
Table 1: Shortfall of Supply against Requirements
1. SDP requirements (planning-led scenario); and
2. Projected household growth (demographic-led
scenario).
The scale of under-delivery for the SESplan and
Clydeplan SDP areas is clear, particularly when
considered in the context of the SDP target figures.
This is of particular concern given the emphasis being
placed on the Edinburgh and Glasgow city regions to
deliver growth for Scotland.
Whilst a range of factors may be contributing to underdelivery, there is a need to ensure a sufficient supply of
deliverable and developable land to support increased
rates of house building. There is also the issue of
backlog, particularly in the years since the recession,
when completions have fallen significantly short of
identified targets.
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
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1. SDP
Requirement
(p.a)*
2. Projected
Household
Growth (p.a)
Delivery
Rates
(p.a)
Shortfall
(p.a)
Clydeplan
(2008/09 2025)
10,795
4,890
2,575
5,905 8,220
SESplan
(2009 2024)
7,170
5,300
3,585
1,870 3,585
* Includes ‘generous’ allowance
Source: SDP/General Register of Scotland Projection Data Are Homes Being Planned in the Right Places?
Housing market performance differs by area, driven by
local variations across a variety of factors. In a postrecession environment, the spatial alignment of housing
demand (including locational preference) and supply is
critical to maximise prospects of future delivery. Quite
simply, if housing land is allocated in locations where
buyers won’t buy and builders won’t build, it will not be
taken up and homes will not be provided.
To understand the link between demand and where
future supply is most wanted, it is useful to look at the
three parties, shown below.
The Lender
The Buyer
Mortgage lenders create value through selling
mortgage finance. As with all loans, they are
subject to an element of risk that needs to be
factored into the equation.
In order to purchase a house, a number of
factors normally need to be in place:
The three elements of this risk are:
ii. An aspiration to own the property influenced by factors including the type of
property and its location; and
i.
The borrower - their deposit, credit rating,
income and other commitments;
ii. The property - its value and the market
within which it is located (e.g. city centre flat
or suburban detached house); and
i.
The formation of a household;
iii. An ability to pay for the purchase usually through a combination of deposit
and mortgage.
iii. The location - the market conditions and
prospects of the specific location of the
property.
The Builder
House builders create value through the building
and selling of property. They need to pay the
carrying costs for business loans and create profit
for their shareholders.
They can only build in locations where they
generate sufficient value through sales/rental
income.
Supporting
Scotland’s
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A Market Strength Index
The manifestations of decisions made by each of
these three parties impacts on housing delivery rates
differently in each location. To gauge what this means
in terms of the housing allocations across the Edinburgh
and Glasgow city-regions, a number of indicators can
be identified which can help assess housing demand
and essentially housing market strength in different
locations.
A Market Strength Index (MSI)
Four indicators of housing demand have been collated
to provide the basis for NLP’s Market Strength Index
(MSI). This has been applied across the Edinburgh and
Glasgow city-regions.
The MSI has been generated through analysis of the
relative performance of different areas against the
following:
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
5
•
Volume of house sales/transactions - the
change in the volume of transactions is a measure
of demand and ability of residents to execute this
demand to purchase a property (including through
mortgage finance), with a particular focus on how
market has rebounded from the recession;
•
Change in house prices - an area experiencing
higher rates of growth in house prices can be seen
to experience a stronger market;
•
Average house prices - an indicator of current
market strength; and
•
Mosaic typologies - using Experian’s consumer
classification system to categorise households on
the basis of income, age and lifestyle choices.
Volume of House Sales (2007/08-2013/14)
The whole of the Scottish housing market suffered
through the recession, and the number of sales remains
below the pre-recession peak.
The majority of areas have seen sales at a level that
remain between 15% and 30% lower in 2013/14 than
they were in 2007/08. However, the pattern is not
uniform (Figure 3).
Some areas demonstrated a greater degree of
resilience, in particular Edinburgh, East Lothian and East
Renfrewshire.
Figure 3: % Change in House Sales 2007/08 to 2013/14
Source: Registers of Scotland/NLP Analysis
Supporting
Scotland’s
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House Price Change (2007-2014)
Analysis of house price change over the same period
(2007/08 to 2013/14) similarly highlights a mixed
picture of performance (Figure 4).
High house price increases can be found across
Inverclyde, East Renfrewshire, Midlothian and East
Lothian and parts of North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire,
West Lothian and Edinburgh.
The Borders, South Lanarkshire and Glasgow (City)
have all experienced a significant decline in average
house prices, together with parts of Fife and West/East
Dunbartonshire.
Figure 4: % Average house price % change 2007/08 to 2013/14
Source: Registers of Scotland/NLP Analysis
Source: Registers of Scotland/NLP Analysis
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
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Current House Prices (2013-14)
The housing market today is improving, with house
prices in Scotland averaging £163,563(5), an increase
of 4% in 2014. The strongest market areas are set
out in Table 2. This shows that prices in these areas
are between 28% and 40% higher than the Scottish
average and between 20% and 32% higher than the UK
average (£178,500).
Average House Prices (2013-14)
Average house price data, which provides an indicator
of current market strength, has been analysed.
This highlights stronger markets across Edinburgh,
East Lothian, East Renfrewshire and parts of East
Dunbartonshire (Figure 5).
Table 2: Local Authorities with highest average house price
Average
house
price
2014
%
Change
2013 to
2014
%
Difference
to
Scottish
average
%
Difference
to UK
Average
East
Renfrewshire
£228,963
5.6%
40.0%
32.0%
Edinburgh
£226,551
5.2%
38.5%
30.6%
East
Dunbartonshire
£217,126
2.7%
32.8%
25.1%
East Lothian
£210,143
3.7%
28.5%
21.1%
Source: General Registers of Scotland
Figure 5: Average House Price (2013-14)
Source: Registers of Scotland
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
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Mosaic Typologies
Analysis of Mosaic data by postal sector highlights:
Mosaic utilises a range of datasets to classify
households according to demographic characteristics,
lifestyles and behaviour. The classifications are helpful to
understand the dominant characteristics of households
in a local area. Figure 6 provides a summary of the most
dominant Mosaic group in each postal sector.
•
Concentrations of households with more
challenging socio-economic profiles concentrated
in the central M8 corridor between Edinburgh and
Glasgow and around the Clyde corridor;
•
Concentrations of more affluent and professional
households found to the south of Glasgow City in
Renfrewshire and central/south Edinburgh; and
•
The majority of the Scottish Borders and East
Lothian are characterised by more rural, ‘country
living’ household typologies - higher earning families
in predominantly owner-occupied properties.
Figure 6: Mosaic Household Classifications
Source: Experian Mosaic Classifications
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
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Housing Market Strength Index
The four indicators of market demand have been
brought together into a composite analysis which
places each postal sector into one of five market
strength bands, which can be broadly defined by the
characteristics set out in Table 3.
Table 3: Market Strength Characteristics
Market Strength
Characteristics
High earning households
Strongest Markets
Mosaic Classifications - ‘City Prosperity’, ‘Prestige Positions’, ‘Country Living’
Strong market
Families and high earning ‘city living’ households
Average house price £270k
Increase in number of sales 07/08-13/14
Positive increases in house prices
Mix of families and single households
Mosaic Classifications - ‘Rural Reality’, ‘Domestic Success’ , ‘Rental Hubs’
Average house price £175k
Decline in number of sales 07/08-13/14
Small decline in average prices
Mosaic Classifications - ‘Rental Hubs’, ‘Modest Traditions’
Household incomes lower than £30k
Average house price £140k
25% average decline in number of sales 07/08-13/14
Small decline in average prices
Household incomes lower than £30k
Mosaic Classifications - ‘Modest Traditions’, ‘Vintage Value’, ‘Rental Hubs’
Weakest Markets
Average house price £110k
Significant decline in number of sales 07/08-13/14
10% decline in house prices
Modest household incomes, less than £15k
Mosaic Classifications - ‘Municipal Challenge’
Weak market
Average house price £76k
50% decline in sales
25% decline in house prices
Source: NLP Analysis
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
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The strongest markets - in the top two bands - are likely
to have the greatest prospects for bringing forward sites
for new housing as the market will have confidence that
demand levels and values justify the costs and risks
associated with development.
Areas in the two weakest bands are likely to represent
higher levels of risk for private-sector led development areas where values remain low, sales levels have fallen
and the socio-economic profile of residents means they
are they less likely to be in a position to purchase new
homes.
Figure 7: Market Demand Composite Matrix
Source: NLP Analysis
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
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The outputs of the MSI are illustrated in Figure 7.
Areas coloured green have the strongest markets; areas
in red have the weakest markets. To explore what this
means for housing delivery, it is important to look at how
sites proposed for new housing are distributed, relative
to these levels of market strength.
Future Housing Supply
NLP has analysed all (adopted/emerging) Local
Development Plan (LDP) documents across the
Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions to identify future
housing allocations and, where identified, the number
of homes these sites are estimated to deliver (the site
yield).
This has been mapped to illustrate the geographic
picture of future housing supply across the centralbelt of Scotland, shown in Figure 8. This is timely as
a number are currently being reviewed, including the
Clydeplan and SESplan. Overall, future supply totals
some 130,192 dwellings. It is concentrated along
the Clyde Corridor, M8 corridor and in Edinburgh and
the Lothians. The analysis also highlights that larger
allocations are found predominantly in the east of
Scotland, with future housing supply in the west
dominated by sites with less than 200 units.
The future supply of 130,192 dwellings compares to
an overall housing requirement of c. 270,000 identified
within the SESplan and Clydeplan (2008-2025). This
equates to a housing pipeline of only ten years - even
based on past delivery rather than future requirements
- highlighting an issue of shortage in the future housing
supply across the Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions.
Figure 8: Future Housing Allocations - location and yield
Source: LDP/NLP Analysis
Supporting
Scotland’s
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Housing Demand and Supply Balance
Housing allocations are only an effective means of
delivering new homes if there is a realistic prospect of
them being implemented. In this regard, with a housing
market that is driven by private sector investment, it
is clearly important that housing supply is aligned with
areas of market demand, to support future housing
delivery.
This is particularly the case for the first five years of the
plan, at a time when housing market recovery postrecession is still underway. Over a longer period, change
can be achieved and investment can gradually unlock
new areas of demand, particularly in tandem with placeshaping interventions from Government.
Figure 9: MSI and Housing Allocations
Source: NLP Analysis
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
13
In order to assess how well aligned future housing supply
is with areas of market strength across the central belt
of Scotland, the housing allocations have been overlaid
with the results of the MSI analysis. The results are
illustrated in Figure 9.
Of the dwelling capacity of housing allocations across
the two SDP city-region areas, around 58% (equivalent
to 75,995) is in the SESplan area, with the remainder
(54,197) across the Clydeplan. The distribution of this
capacity across the five MSI bands is shown in Figure
10 below.
What the analysis highlights is that across the two
SDP areas, around 42% (55,267 units) of housing
capacity on proposed allocations is in the top two MSI
bands – areas with the strongest local housing markets.
This suggests a reasonable degree of confidence can
be attached to its delivery (subject to site specific
considerations such as access, land ownership etc).
However, around 37% (47,883 units) of housing
allocation capacity is in the bottom two bands (among
the weakest local housing markets), suggesting
significant risks can be attached to its deliverability.
The picture is different across the two SDP areas. In the
Clydeplan, almost half (48% / 26,069 units) of housing
allocation capacity is in the bottom two MSI bands, with
26% in the very weakest local markets. In the SESplan
area, 29% is in the two bottom MSI bands, with just 1%
in the very weakest market area. Almost half of housing
capacity on allocations is in the two strongest MSI
bands in the SESplan area, compared to just 35% in
the Clydeplan area.
Looking at each of the individual SDP areas in more
detail reveals further variation. Figure 11 shows the
distribution within the Clydeplan area, whilst Figure 12
shows the same analysis for SESplan area. It highlights
significant challenges for delivery of housing allocations
in some local authorities.
Figure 10: Yield capacity by market demand for total area of study
54,197
75,995
9,213
15,729
9,731
20,594
9,184
11,791
17,908
Market Strength: 5 (strongest)
Market Strength: 4
Market Strength: 3
14,278
21,319
445
Clyde Plan
Market Strength: 2
Market Strength: 1 (WEAKEST)
SESplan
Source: NLP Analysis
Supporting
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14
Figure 11: Capacity of Housing Allocations by market demand - Clydeplan
4
,0
4
15
3
2,
52
4,
22
0
3
,1
1
16
7
5,
32
7
2
82
5,
42
4,
72
1
Proportion of total allocations
100%
90%
80%
4,414
3,116
137
70%
60%
3,420
50%
40%
Market Strength: 5 (strongest)
Market Strength: 4
30%
8,900
2,850
5,788
20%
Market Strength: 3
Market Strength: 2
10%
Market Strength: 1 (WEAKEST)
South Lankershire
North Lankershire
East Dunbartonshire
Glasgow
East Renfrewshire
Renfrewshire
West Dunbartonshire
Inverclyde
0%
*Broader band highlights a greater proportion of the total allocation
Source: NLP Analysis
Within the Clydeplan area, the analysis highlights a
significant amount of housing capacity (30%) within
Glasgow’s housing allocations, and that over two
thirds of this is in the two weakest MSI bands - similar
proportions are found in Inverclyde, West Dunbartonshire
and Renfrewshire (albeit in local authority areas that are
much smaller).
Supporting
Scotland’s
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15
In South Lanarkshire - the other large source of housing
allocations in the SDP area - 40% is in the weaker
market areas. Only in East Renfrewshire and East
Dunbartonshire is there a majority of allocations in the
strongest market locations.
Figure 12: Yield capacity by market demand - SESplan
4
8,
27
4
,9
5
15
4,
34
2
63
0
2
,6
8
34
100%
12
,1
1
3
Proportion of total allocations
6,405
90%
80%
70%
5,721
7,898
5,600
60%
10,514
50%
Market Strength: 5 (strongest)
40%
5,040
30%
3,847
12,163
Market Strength: 2
3,016
10%
Fife
Midlothian
Scottish Borders
Edinburgh
Market Strength: 1 (WEAKEST)
West Lothian
0%
Market Strength: 4
Market Strength: 3
East Lothian
20%
4,798
*Broader band highlights a greater proportion of the total allocation
Source: NLP Analysis
In the SESplan area, there is clearly a significant role
for Edinburgh to deliver housing (with 46% of total
allocation capacity), and although it has no allocations
in the very weakest MSI band, it nevertheless has over
a third (35%) of its capacity in the second weakest
market areas a similar proportion to West Lothian.
Fife has 63% of its housing allocation capacity in the
weakest market areas. East Lothian, on the other hand,
has an overwhelming majority (81%) of its housing
capacity in the strongest market areas, and no sites in
weak market locations
Of course, in predominantly urban locations with tightly
drawn administrative boundaries, such as Glasgow,
there may be limitations on the ability of individual LDPs
to locate development in the strongest market areas to
deliver their housing targets.
However, looking across the SDP areas, if the intention
is to maximise the prospects of delivering housing
allocations, one might expect strategies to target
proportionately more development in local authority
areas where there is greater prospect of allocating sites
in stronger market locations, thus aiding delivery.
Supporting
Scotland’s
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16
Supporting
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17
Conclusions
This report provides a high level analysis of the
alignment between locational areas of demand and the
supply (allocation) of housing sites across the SDP areas
of Edinburgh and Glasgow city regions. This allows us to
start to understand whether homes are being planned
for in the right places and why delivery of new homes
has fallen short of identified targets.
In simple terms, the Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions
are failing to deliver the rate of housing that is required.
Unlike in other parts of the UK, this is not due to a
failure to prepare Plans or to allocate land. The analysis
in this report suggests one reason may be that the
wrong land is being allocated in the wrong places: in the
aftermath of a housing market recession, with housing
transactions and values still below their 2007/8 peak,
the allocation of sites in poorer market areas is likely to
undermine delivery.
Across the Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions, our
analysis found that well over a third (37%) of homes
planned in housing allocations are in the weaker
housing market areas - casting significant doubts over
deliverability. In the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SDP area,
this proportion is almost half (48%), and for Glasgow,
Inverclyde, West Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire,
it is two thirds.
Whilst policy interventions, and investment from
Government in place-making and subsidy for
development, may, over time, unlock the potential
of these poorest market areas (and in turn, support
delivery of regeneration), it must be recognised that
this means longer lead-in times and potentially slower
build out rates. In the interests of delivering more
homes in the shorter term, it is of concern that just
42% of housing capacity on housing allocations is in the
stronger market locations that will support delivery.
It should also be recognised that even in the strongest
market areas, some sites will not come forward as
quickly as plan-makers would like, due to site-specific
constraints.
It is clear from the analysis there are a number of
implications for local authorities and developers when
considering how future housing delivery can meet the
housing requirements set out within the SDPs for the
Edinburgh and Glasgow city-regions.
For local authorities:
For developers:
•
The need to understand the market demand
dynamics across their geographic area to
maximise delivery, recognising the impact of
market strength on housing delivery rates;
•
•
The challenge of maintaining an effective
five year deliverable housing land supply
and supporting longer term aspirations for
regeneration in weaker market areas;
The opportunity to promote new housing sites
located in areas of stronger market demand
- particularly those not allocated within LDPs
- where the stronger housing market gives
confidence on deliverability, and their ability to
help meet housing targets;
•
Understanding the future housing needs of an
area, local demand indicators and local market
characteristics to inform the future housing mix
of a development; and
•
Making the strategic and business case for
government support of housing development
as part of regeneration schemes, given the
reliance that is being placed on weaker sites to
meet housing targets.
•
•
Recognising the positive impact of new
development on the edges of areas of strong
market demand to increase the geographic
extent of market demand; and
The importance of recognising the scale of
development which will be needed to affect
change in weaker areas.
Increased delivery rates would also realise the economic
benefits which would be delivered by increased housing
supply. These benefits are discussed in NLP’s research
report Supporting Scotland’s Growth - Housing: The
Economic Benefits of Increasing Delivery (May 2015).
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
18
Appendix 1
Market
Demand: 1
(WEAKEST)
Inverclyde
Market
Demand: 2
(light red)
Market
Demand: 3
(orange)
Market
Demand: 4
(light green)
1,361
393
1,095
117
4,721
2,850
319
1,562
696
0
5,427
140
495
0
50
137
822
0
1,317
0
892
3,118
5,327
8,900
1,938
3,166
935
1,174
16,113
0
96
48
820
3,256
4,220
North
Lanarkshire
391
477
595
829
231
2,523
South
Lanarkshire
242
5,788
3,420
4,414
1,180
15,044
0
3,847
1,758
5,721
787
12,113
0
12,163
10,514
5,600
6,405
34,682
0
505
767
2,720
350
4,342
20
6
100
229
275
630
0
0
3,016
5,040
7,898
15,954
425
4,798
1,753
1,284
14
8,274
14,723
33,110
27,092
30,325
24,942
130,192
Renfrewshire
East
Renfrewshire
Glasgow (City)
East
Dunbartonshire
West Lothian
Edinburgh (City)
Midlothian
Scottish Borders
East Lothian
Fife
Total
Endnotes
19
Total
1,755
West
Dunbartonshire
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
Market
Demand: 5
(STRONGEST)
1
Moneysupermarket research as reported by Property Wire in 2014
2
Experian Local Market Forecasts ‘workforce’ jobs
3
Experian Local Market Forecasts ‘Workforce’ jobs 2015 to 2025
4
Including conversions
5
Registers of Scotland ‘House Price Information Annual Market Review 2014
About NLP
Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners (NLP) is an independent
planning, economics and urban design consultancy,
with eight offices across the UK.
NLP is currently RTPI Planning Consultancy of the Year
and Just Giving Company of the Year. We are one of
the largest independent planning consultancies in
the UK and we offer the broadest range of skills of
any specialist planning firm. This includes services in
economics, spatial analytics, heritage, sustainability,
urban design, graphics and sunlight and daylight, as
well as a full range of planning skills.
Our clients include local authorities and government
bodies, as well as developers, landowners and
operators in the housing, retail, leisure, commercial,
and infrastructure sectors.
We prepare accessible and clear reports, underpinned
by robust analysis and stakeholder engagement, and
provide expert witness evidence to public inquiries
and examinations.
Our targeted research reports explore current
planning / economic issues and seek to offer practical
ways forward.
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You can find out more information on NLP and
download copies of this report at:
www.nlpplanning.com/nlp-insight
How NLP can help
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Contacts
For more information, please contact us:
Bristol
Andy Cockett
0117 403 1980
[email protected]
Cardiff
Gareth Williams
0292 043 5880
[email protected]
Edinburgh
Nicola Woodward
0131 285 0670
[email protected]
Leeds
Justin Gartland
0113 397 1397
[email protected]
London
Matthew Spry
0207 837 4477
[email protected]
Manchester
Michael Watts
0161 837 6130
[email protected]
Newcastle
Michael Hepburn
0191 261 5685
[email protected]
Thames Valley
Dan Lampard
0118 334 1920
[email protected]
This publication has been written in general terms and cannot be relied on to cover specific situations. We recommend that you obtain
professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. NLP accepts no duty of care or
liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of any material in this publication.
Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners is the trading name of Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Limited. Registered in England, no.2778116.
Registered office: 14 Regent’s Wharf, All Saints Street, London N1 9RL
© Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2015. All rights reserved.
Supporting
Scotland’s
Growth
20
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