ATS/ESS 454, ATS 554
Instructor:
Forecasting Mesoscale Processes
Spring 2015
Mr. Anthony W. “Tony” Lyza
Office: NSSTC/Cramer Hall 3081 (before moving to SWIRLL)
SWIRLL 215 (after moving to SWIRLL – stay tuned)
Email: [email protected] (preferred method of contact)
Phone: (256) 961-7797 (in NSSTC)
Office Hours: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Otherwise, I
am usually in my office from 9:00 AM - 6:00 PM Monday-Friday and
hold an open-door policy, but it’s best to schedule an appointment if you
need to meet outside of the formal office hours.
Class Supervisor:
Dr. Kevin R. Knupp
Office: NSSTC/Cramer Hall 3052 (before moving to SWIRLL)
Email: [email protected] (preferred method of contact)
Phone: (256) 961-7762 (in NSSTC)
Schedule:
Tuesday and Thursday 9:35 AM - 10:55 AM
Location:
NSSTC/Cramer Hall 4085
Webpage:
Documents for this class will be uploaded to my vortex webpage and made available for
the entire semester. My webpage can be found at:
[http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/users/anthony.lyza].
Course Summary and Objectives:
At the end of this course, students who perform well will demonstrate:
1) Knowledge of what mesoscale meteorology is and the distinction between mesoscale phenomena
and other scales, including dynamic and empirical definitions;
2) Working knowledge of state-of-the-art diagnostic, forecasting and observational tools and
methodologies in mesoscale meteorology, including radar and satellite detection of certain
mesoscale phenomena;
3) A deep understanding of basic atmospheric physical principles related to mesoscale phenomena,
including the theory and concepts related to buoyancy/stability and wind shear/vorticity
generation;
4) A knowledge of the relationship between synoptic-scale patterns and severe convective hazards;
5) Understanding of processes and features that can lead to convective initiation, including
boundaries, waves, the low-level jet, and other boundary layer phenomena;
6) An ability to distinguish convective modes (single-cell vs. multicell vs. supercell), between
supercell types, and associated hazards;
7) A firm foundation in forecasting severe convective hazards and discriminating between the
probability of hazards, including damaging winds, hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding;
8) Knowledge of the physics and forecasting of mesoscale phenomena driven by land-sea
thermodynamic differences, particularly land-sea breezes and lake-effect convection;
9) Identification, physical knowledge, and ability to forecast flow phenomena induced around
topography.
Prerequisites:
ATS/ESS 451 – ATS 551, Atmospheric Fluid Dynamics I. Although not formally a prerequisite, some
concepts from ATS/ESS 441 – ATS 541 (Atmospheric Thermodynamics and Cloud Physics) are used and
therefore reviewed, as needed. Similarly, some synoptic background (e.g., ATS 452) is helpful and will
be reviewed, as needed.
ATS/ESS 454, ATS 554
Forecasting Mesoscale Processes
Spring 2015
Required Textbook (note that required reading will accompany many lectures):
Markowski, P. and Y. Richardson, 2010: Mesoscale Meteorology in Midlatitudes, 1st ed. Wiley, ISBN10: 0470742135, ISBN-13: 978-0470742136, 430 pp. (available in hardcover and eBook
editions)
Other Recommended Books, Monographs, and Textbooks:
Bluestein, H. B., 1993: Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes Vol. II, Oxford University Press,
New York.
Djuric, D., 1994: Weather Analysis. Prentice Hall, 304 pp.
Doswell, C. A., 2001: Severe Convective Storms. Meteorological Monographs, Vol. 29, No. 50,
American Meteorological Society, Boston.
Holton, J. R., 2004: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. 4th ed., Academic Press, 535 pp.
Houze, R. A., 1994: Cloud Dynamics. Volume 53, International Geophysics, Academic Press.
Lackmann, G., 2012: Midlatitude Synoptic Meteorology: Dynamics, Analysis, and Forecasting. American
Meteorological Society, 345 pp.
Ray, P. S., 1986: Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting. American Meteorological Society, Boston.
Wallace, J.M and P. V. Hobbs, 2006: Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey. 2nd ed., Academic
Press, 504 pp.
Online Course Materials:
The UCAR-COMET Meteorology and Education and Training (MetEd – http://www.meted.ucar.edu)
web-based training modules available on the Internet will be used often. Most of the necessary modules
will come from the “Convective Weather”, “Mesoscale Meteorology”, “Radar Meteorology”, or “Satellite
Meteorology” topic areas. Additionally, select Internet websites, such as http://www.spc.noaa.gov, with
useful meteorological data and information will be utilized.
Research Articles:
We will occasionally read online and PDF copies of various conference proceedings (e.g., AMS
Conference on Severe Local Storms) and peer-reviewed journal articles (e.g., Weather and Forecasting).
ATS/ESS 454, ATS 554
Forecasting Mesoscale Processes
Spring 2015
Course Grading:
The grading will be determined as follows:
Percentage
15%
Assignment
1st Exam
Tentative Date
Thursday 12 February
15%
2nd Exam
Thursday 19 March
20%
Final Exam
Tuesday 28 April, 8:00 AM –
10:30 AM
10%
Homework
10%
Quizzes
15%
“So You Want to Be
an SPC Forecaster?”
Typically collected 1-1.5 weeks
after assignment.
Every Thursday except for weeks
with or after an exam.
Assignment will be completed by
Tuesday 21 April.
15%
Research
Project/Paper
Thursday 23 April
Comment
Covers roughly first 1/3 of class material. Exam will be a
mixture of short answer, word problem/problem
solving/derivation, and multiple choice questions. No unexcused
absences. All other absences must be arranged before the exam.
Same format and procedures as above except covers
approximately second 1/3 of class material.
Part I (10%). Same format and procedures as above except
covers approximately last 1/3 of class material.
Part II (10%). Real-world forecasting exercise. Requires
comprehensive knowledge of all class materials.
No late work accepted unless part of an excused absence.
Short 10-15 minute quizzes for comprehension of material.
Lowest grade is dropped at the end of the semester.
Series of forecasting exercises focused on severe convective
storms. These forecasting exercises will form a complete,
thorough case study. See handout for more information. No
late work accepted unless part of an excused absence.
Paper will be 10 pages (12 pt. font, double-spaced), plus figures,
references, etc. See project handout for more information. No
late work accepted.
This is a split advanced undergraduate (ATS/ESS 454) and entry-level graduate (ATS 554) course. For
each class, letter grades will be assigned based on the following scale:
A: 90-100%
B: 80-89%
C: 70-79%
D: 60-69%
F: ≤ 59%.
Some homework and exam questions may be different for the ATS/ESS 454 and ATS 554 classes.
Assignments in ATS 554 might sometimes require a more in depth conceptual understanding of material
and/or increased mathematical rigor. Expectations for the research paper will be different for each class
(more details to follow in class).
Semester Scheduling Issues – Missed and Make-up Classes
I have a few unavoidable conflicts associated with research obligations that will result in me missing class
on the following (tentative) day(s) during the semester: Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop
(Date TBD). My preference is to cancel class on these days and make up missed time by (1) extending
class by 10-15 minutes or (2) making up missed days at a mutually agreeable day/time. We will decide
on these tentative options during class. If you must miss class for a legitimate, planned reason (e.g.,
attend a conference), please inform me in advance so that we can coordinate any missed lecture notes,
assignments, and exams. If you are feeling ill and must miss a class, then please inform me via e-mail as
soon as possible (in advance of class, if possible) and follow up to coordinate missed material. Make-up
exams and quizzes will only be given in cases of excused absences, such as an illness documented by a
physician, official college-sponsored activities with appropriate documentation, or a death in the
immediate family with a note from the Dean’s office. While attendance is not mandatory, be aware that
5% of your grade comes from participation and your performance on weekly quizzes. Late homework
and “So You Want to Be an SPC Forecaster?” assignments without an excused absence will not be
accepted. In all cases, it is your (the student’s) responsibility to make sure that you are up to date with
your lecture notes, assignments and exams after an excused absence.
ATS/ESS 454, ATS 554
Forecasting Mesoscale Processes
Spring 2015
Complaint Procedure:
If you have difficulties or complaints related to this course, your first action usually should be to discuss
them with me or the supervising professor for this course, Dr. Kevin Knupp (see top of this syllabus for
more information). If such a discussion would be uncomfortable for you or fails to resolve your
difficulties, you should contact Dr. Larry Carey, Associate Professor and Interim Chair of the
Atmospheric Science Department. Dr. Carey’s office is NSSTC Room 4042, his telephone number is
(256) 961-7872, and email address is [email protected]. If you are still unsatisfied, you should discuss
the matter with the Associate Dean of the College of Sciences, located in C206 of the Materials Science
Building. His phone number is (256) 824-6605.
Students with Disabilities:
The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) is a federal anti-discrimination statute that provides
comprehensive civil rights protection for persons with disabilities. Among other things, this legislation
requires that all students with disabilities be guaranteed a learning environment that provides for
reasonable accommodation of their disabilities. If you believe you have a disability requiring an
accommodation (i.e., some modification of seating, testing, or other class procedures), please see me after
class or during my office hours to discuss appropriate modifications.
UAlert Emergency Notification System:
UAHuntsville has implemented the UAlert emergency notification system. UAlert allows you to receive
time-sensitive emergency messages in the form of e-mail, voice mail, and text messages.
Everyone who has a UAHuntsville e-mail address will receive emergency alerts to their campus e-mail
address. In order to also receive text and voice message alerts, you are asked to provide up-to-date phone
contact information. Participation in UAlert text and voice messaging is optional, but enrollment is
strongly encouraged. You can’t be reached through UAlert unless you participate. The information you
supply is considered confidential and will not be shared or used for purposes other than emergency
notification.
To review your UAlert account, add or update phone and alternate e-mail addresses, and set the priority
for your contact methods, please visit the UAlert web site: http://ualert.uah.edu.
Course Topics / Schedule:
Unit 1 – Introduction to Mesoscale Meteorology
What is mesoscale? How do we define the mesoscale? What are some examples of mesoscale
atmospheric phenomena? What is a severe convective storm? The roles of the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) and Weather Prediction Center (WPC; formerly the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center/HPC),
as well as overviews of select products. Radar and satellite applications primer.
Unit 2 – Buoyancy, Static Instability and Sounding Analysis; An Introduction to Convection
Buoyancy. Single-cell convection. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and convective
updrafts – parcel theory. Limitations of parcel theory. NCAPE (Normalized Convective Available
Potential Energy). The sounding diagram. Dry and moist adiabatic ascent. Static instability. Moist
convection. Instability indices. CAPE – calculation and interpretation. Airmass types. Potential
Instability.
ATS/ESS 454, ATS 554
Forecasting Mesoscale Processes
Spring 2015
Unit 3 - Convective Initiation and Boundary Layer Primer
Requirements and role of larger scales on CI. Mesoscale complexities of CI. Moisture convergence.
Elevated Convection. Drylines, pacific fronts, and outflow boundaries. Basic wave theory and dynamics.
Structure and environment of ducted mesoscale gravity waves. Bores. The nocturnal low-level wind
maximum/low-level jet. Forecasting. Detection.
Unit 4 – Structure and Evolution of Convection: Relationship between Storm Environment and
Convective Cell Type
Convective storm structure and evolution (single cell, multicell, and supercell). Role of wind shear.
Application - the hodograph. Convective storm type prediction using buoyancy, shear and associated
combined indices (e.g., bulk Richardson number). Other advanced indices. Fundamentals of the
convective downdraft. The supercell. Supercell type. Mesocyclogenesis. Types of downdrafts and
resultant outflows. Theory and forecasting.
**Exam 1**
Unit 5 - Mesoscale Convective Systems
Definitions. Climatology. Large-scale environment. Radar and satellite structure (e.g., squall lines, bow
echoes, Mesoscale Convective Complexes). Non-downdraft driven high winds, including rear inflow jet,
mesovortices, and derechos. Detection and Forecasting. Case studies.
Unit 6 – Severe Convective Weather Hazards: Tornadoes, Hail, and Damaging Winds
Tornadogenesis, maintenance, and decay. Structure and intensity of tornadoes. Radar detection of
mesocyclones. Indices for forecasting supercells and tornadoes. Tornadic vs. non-tornadic supercells.
QLCS tornadoes, landspouts, and waterspouts. Interactions between gravity waves and mesocyclones.
Hail formation. Storm characteristics. Hailstone trajectories: supercell vs. multicell. Radar detection of
hail. Microburst formation and detection. Microbursts vs. bow echoes. Case studies.
**Exam 2**
Unit 7 – Mesoscale Phenomena at Land-Sea Interface
Land-sea breeze formation. Climatology and implications for convective initiation. Lake-effect
convection forecasting. Structure of lake-effect snow bands. Climatology of lake-effect precipitation,
particularly in the Great Lakes region. Relationship between lake-effect snow bands and mesoscale
convective systems. Forecasting and detection.
Unit 8 – Topographically-Induced Mesoscale Flow Phenomena
Slope flows and valley flows. Mountain waves and downslope windsotrms. Terrain blocking; the Froude
number. Cold-air damming. Lee vortices and gap flows. The Denver Cyclonic Vorticity Zone (DCVZ)
and the Denver cyclone. Catalina Eddies. Forecasting of terrain-induced phenomena.
** This is an approximate schedule of course material to be covered. Some deviation from the schedule
and/or topics may be necessary.