2015 Canadian Federal Budget April 21, 2015 Smaller Steps Today, Bigger Dreams Deferred Economics Avery Shenfeld (416) 594-7356 [email protected] Benjamin Tal (416) 956-3698 [email protected] Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219 [email protected] Nick Exarhos (416) 956-6527 [email protected] Maria Berlettano (416) 594-8041 [email protected] (Macro Strategy) by Avery Shenfeld and Maria Berlettano Landing on a balanced budget required only one small step for a Canadian finance minister, at least in today’s budget document. After several years of revenue gains tied to economic growth and restraint on program spending, the status quo outlook going into today’s federal budget was for a small surplus. But that included major announcements for family tax relief that were unveiled in the fall fiscal update. After adding up the pluses and minuses from initiatives announced today, it remained little changed, still pointing to a $1.4 bn surplus, with plans for essentially more of the same down the road (Chart 1). That puts Canada’s federal government in an envied position among major economies, supporting its top credit rating. Canada still has some tougher fiscal adjustments ahead, but these are at the provincial level. For Ottawa, fiscal belt tightening was already largely in the rear-view mirror. Spending restraints being phased in from prior budgets will still be kicking in, but total spending has already fallen to its pre-recession share of GDP, and will now be on a flat trajectory as a share of GDP. There’s a long laundry list of new tax and spending items that are initially small in dollar terms, with their fiscal cost roughly offset by revenue from asset sales and trimming the contingency reserve. Some will become more costly pledges in the further out years, with the revenue room to do so dependent on a return to healthier nominal GDP growth. http://research. cibcwm.com/res/Eco/ EcoResearch.html A Softer Backdrop The economic shock from a sharp drop in oil prices came late enough in 2014 to be covered off by the $3 bn in contingency reserves and roughly $1 bn from asset sales, allowing Ottawa to register a $2 bn deficit that bested its original budget target by almost $1 bn. Revenues were actually $3 bn stronger than assumed in the February 2014 budget, largely because the base set in the final tally for the prior year also came in ahead of the estimates available when last year’s budget was drawn up. But the 2015 economic landscape will be less forgiving. The consensus outlook for real GDP was trimmed by a bit more than a half-point since the fall update to 2.0%. And nominal GDP, which has closer ties to revenues, is projected to crawl at a 1.6% pace this year, close to CIBC’s own forecast, but down from a fall consensus for 4.3%. That swing meant that the status quo revenue outlook was now $6 bn lighter than expected in last fall’s update. Chart 1 In the Black, But With Smaller Surpluses 15 Federal Budget Balance, $ bn 10 5 1.4 1.7 2.6 2.6 0 -5 -10 -2.0 -5.2 -15 -20 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 2014 Budget 2014 Mid-Year 2015 Budget CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBC • (416) 594-7000 C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6 CIBC World Markets Inc. 2015 Canadian Federal Budget—April 21, 2015 Some might quibble that, given the uncertainties facing both the oil sector and its economic implications, the Finance Minister was imprudent in reducing contingencies, or counting one-time asset sale proceeds. We argued (in “Don’t Assume the Worst”, Economic Insights dated March 25, 2015) that “spending” some of the $3 bn contingency for 2015/16 that was there in the mid-year update projections is justified if one sees the oil shock as just the sort of contingency that it’s designed to cover. Making more adverse assumptions, or not cashing in the GM shares in a year in which the political imperative was to deliver a balanced set of books, would have required billions in tax hikes or spending cuts that would themselves be imprudent given the weaker nearterm economic backdrop. Table 1 Average Private Sector Forecasts 2014 2015 2016 2017-19 (1) Economic Assumptions Real GDP Budget 2014 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.3 Nominal GDP(2) Budget 2014 4.4 3.9 1.6 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.4 4.3 Jobless Rate (%) CPI US Real GDP 6.9 1.9 2.4 6.7 0.9 3.1 6.6 2.2 2.9 6.2 2.0 2.5 93 0.9 2.2 90.5 54 0.6 1.7 79.2 67 1.0 2.5 80.8 77 2.6 3.6 85.2 Y/Y % Chg Financial Assumptions WTI (US$/bbl) 3-month T-Bills (%) 10-year GoC Bonds (%) Exchange Rate (US¢/C$) (1) "Budget 2014" figures for real/nominal GDP based on 2017-18 average (2) Revenue assumptions based on lower nominal GDP level than private sector forecasts to adjust for potential risks Because the fall update already included measures designed to help families and small business to the tune of some $5 bn, there was little left in terms of booking costs for new announcements for this fiscal year. The actual budget measures only entail a net cost of $0.5 bn in the current fiscal year, but grow to nearly ten times that sum by 2019/20. Those future commitments will form the essence of a platform for an election expected for October, laying out the Conservative vision of how the fiscal rewards of an improving economy would be allocated to tax cuts or new spending. That said, the consensus looks ahead to improvements in both real and nominal GDP further out, backed by a rise in oil prices from an assumed $54/bbl average this year to $75/bbl by 2017. That helps lift nominal GDP by nearly 5% next year, restoring revenue growth and leaving room for the announcements made in today’s budget. Getting to Balance Sticking to its balanced budget pledge for 2015/16, given the revenue squeeze, required a bit of budgetary artwork. In part, Ottawa used the revenue from its sale of GM shares, and spectrum auctions to lift revenues for this fiscal year by $2.2 bn, (of which $1.2 bn was recognized in the projections made in the fall update). The contingency reserve was also trimmed to $1 bn from the usual $3 bn set aside for economic hits. On the spending side, programs will get a moderate 3.4% increase, but that still represents a one-percentagepoint acceleration from the prior year. The growth largely reflects trend increases in transfers to individuals and health, social and equalization transfers to provinces. The budget announced some spending initiatives in support of infrastructure, defense, counter-terrorism, advanced research, public transit and other targets, but many of these start small or don’t kick in this year. Table 2 Fiscal Outlook 2013/14 Actual 14 Budget 2014/15 15 Budget Change 2015/16 15 Budget 2016/17 15 Budget 2017/18 15 Budget 2018/19 15 Budget 2019/20 15 Budget 271.7 276.3 279.3 3.0 290.3 302.4 313.3 326.1 339.6 5.9 1.7 2.8 1.1 3.9 4.2 3.6 4.1 4.1 248.6 250.2 254.6 4.4 263.2 274.3 282.7 293.0 302.6 1.0 0.6 2.4 1.8 3.4 4.2 3.1 3.6 3.3 Public Debt Charges 28.2 29.0 26.7 -2.3 25.7 26.4 28.0 30.5 32.1 Budgetary Balance -5.2 -2.9 -2.0 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.6 2.6 4.8 - -3.0 - 3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 611.9 618.9 616.0 -2.9 617.0 615.3 612.6 610.1 605.2 32.3 32.0 31.2 -0.9 30.8 29.3 27.9 26.7 25.5 $Billions Budgetary Revenues % change Program Spending % change Note: Adjustment for Risk (1) Federal Debt % of Nominal GDP (1) Adjustment for risk to revenues; negative numbers imply a deterioration in the budgetary balance 2 CIBC World Markets Inc. 2015 Canadian Federal Budget—April 21, 2015 Despite an expected drop in corporate income taxes attributable to the oil shock, revenues are still expected to climb by 3.9%, supported by a 6.9% rise in personal income taxes. The budget argues that the PIT growth rate can be well above nominal GDP’s pace due to the impact of progressive tax brackets as income rises. Note that the hit to the yearly growth rate in PIT from the new Family Tax Cut was taken in the prior fiscal year. Net Domestic Bond Stock to Increase $20 billion The Federal government is expected to issue net domestic bonds of $90 bn in 2015/16 (net of buybacks), a decrease of $8 bn over the previous fiscal year. With fewer maturities, the domestic bond stock will grow by $20 bn. Whereas a positive Budgetary Surplus more than offset the increase in Other Non-Budgetary Transactions, the end of the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program (IMPP) eliminated an important source of funding. Last year, the IMPP contributed $9.9 bn to funding. The IMPP was introduced by the Federal Government through its crown corporation, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, as a temporary emergency liquidity facility during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. CMHC was authorized to purchase up to $125 bn in NHA-Insured Mortgage-Backed Securities (NHA MBS) from Canadian financial institutions to support their funding operations. The facility closed March 2010. CMHC had purchased a total of $69 bn in NHA MBS. The last of these securities matured in March 2015. The room for tax cuts has in part been created by opting to collect some $3-4 bn more annually in EI premiums than is paid out in benefits through 2016/17 rather than opt for a more immediate reduction in premium rates. Again, as on the spending side, there are some significant revenue-related announcements that will kick in down the road. Manufacturers will save $0.3 bn next year due to the extension of accelerated capital cost allowances that were set to expire. Small business will get a tax cut that will be phased in beginning in 2016, at a cost that will grow to $1.2 bn by 2019/20 as the rate drops from today’s 11% to 9%. Seniors will be able to take money out of RRIFs at a slower pace, at a cost of $140 mn this year, while TaxFree Savings Account limits are hiked, again with a revenue hit that will largely be off in the future. The only revenue-raising measure was one aimed at “synthetic equity arrangements” related to the treatment of some inter-company dividends. On balance, the net Financing Requirements will climb from $6.7 bn last year to $14.4 bn in the current fiscal year, before easing off to $12.8 bn next year. Budgets are, of course, subject to uncertainty, but what’s clear is that Canada’s credit rating remains well protected. Whatever the wobbles might be in terms of the final set of numbers for the current year, both Ottawa, and the total government sector, still look to be the envy of other major economies in terms of government debt and its trajectory. Federal debt-to-GDP has been edging lower again in the past two years, and is projected to reach 30.8% by the end of this fiscal year, en route to roughly 25% by the end of the decade. $Billions Borrowing Requirements Budgetary Surplus/(Deficit) Insured Mortgage Purchase Program (1) Other Non-Budgetary Transactions Financial Source/(Requirement) Table 3 Net Domestic Bond Stock to Increase $20 bn Including the provinces, financial assets, and the assets of the CPP/QPP, the IMF already measures Canada’s aggregate net debt-to-GDP ratio, at under 40% of GDP, as the lowest in the G-7. But the budget notes that Canada’s edge over other jurisdictions looms much larger if one includes the unfunded liabilities of public sector pension plan, which are recognized in the Canadian and US figures but excluded from those being used for European jurisdictions. 2014/15F 2015/16E -2.0 9.9 -14.6 -6.7 1.4 0.0 -15.8 -14.4 Domestic Maturities & Buybacks (2) 84.0 70.0 Total 90.7 84.4 Sources of Funding Cash & Other Treasury Bills (Net) Domestic Canadas (incl. RRBs) Retail (Net) Foreign Currency Debt (Net) 5.7 -17.0 98.0 0.0 4.0 -5.6 -7.0 90.0 0.0 7.0 Total 90.7 84.4 Net New Issues of Domestic Canada Bonds 14.0 20.0 (1) Non-budgetary transactions comprise loans/advances to Enterprise Crown Corporations, pension costs & other (2) Domestic bonds only; excludes refinancing requirements for Treasury bills, retail and foreign currency debt 3 CIBC World Markets Inc. 2015 Canadian Federal Budget—April 21, 2015 Debt Management Strategy 2015/16 preference. The Government has no plans to issue 7-year term debt. The Government issued a total of $3.5 bn in 50-year bonds over the course of 2014 and may issue additional ultra-long bonds on an opportunistic basis. Foreign currency borrowing will continue to be undertaken in order to fund Canada’s foreign exchange reserves, with foreign currency funding requirements estimated to be around US$9 bn in 2015/16. On March 30th, the Government of Canada tabled its Debt Management Strategy for 2015/16 as required under the Financial Administration Act to present its plan in Parliament prior to the start of the April 1st fiscal year. The Debt Management Strategy sets out the Government’s objectives, strategy and plans for the management of its domestic and foreign debt, other financial liabilities and related assets. For the upcoming fiscal year, the Government has been granted an aggregate borrowing limit of $270 bn, unchanged from fiscal 2014/15. Gross bond issuance has ranged between $88-$100 bn since 2010/11. For 2015/16, gross bond issuance is expected to be $90 bn, driven largely by debt refinancing followed by operational financing requirements. The stock of treasury bills will decrease from $136 bn at the start of the year to $129 bn by the end of 2015/16. The Government has indicated that it is comfortable with its long term debt profile and would like to expand borrowings in the 2- and 5-year sectors in order to achieve a more even distribution of its debt maturities. The Debt Management Strategy will continue to deploy a variety of instruments to contribute to the objective of securing stable, low-cost funding in the year ahead. These instruments will include nominal and real return bonds, treasury bills and retail debt products across a range of maturities. Term debt issuance will be focused in the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year areas through the implementation of the regular auction programs. Issuance of 3-year bonds will cease in order to allow for the building of larger benchmarks in the core 2- and 5-year sectors in response to market This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture Exchange and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, (b) in the United Kingdom, CIBC World Markets plc, which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority, and (c) in Australia, CIBC Australia Limited, a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated by the ASIC (collectively, “CIBC”) and (d) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World Markets Inc. for distribution only to U.S. Major Institutional Investors (“MII”) (as such term is defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) or (ii) CIBC World Markets Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. U.S. MIIs receiving this report from CIBC World Markets Inc. (the Canadian broker-dealer) are required to effect transactions (other than negotiating their terms) in securities discussed in the report through CIBC World Markets Corp. (the U.S. broker-dealer). This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of CIBC World Markets Inc. in Canada, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. This document and any of the products and information contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in the United Kingdom. Such investors will not be able to enter into agreements or purchase products mentioned herein from CIBC World Markets plc. The comments and views expressed in this document are meant for the general interests of wholesale clients of CIBC Australia Limited. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC. Before making an investment decision on the basis of any information contained in this report, the recipient should consider whether such information is appropriate given the recipient’s particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. CIBC suggests that, prior to acting on any information contained herein, you contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice; as with any transaction having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own tax advisors. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates and opinions expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. CIBC has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient’s convenience and information, and the content of linked third-party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk. © 2015 CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets Inc. is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution. 4
© Copyright 2024