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The Overview 24 March 2015
Foreign Exchange Forecasts – FOMC Less Patient, More Cautious?
(Jeremy Hale 20 March 2015)

A much more dovish than expected Fed post the March FOMC has created doubt about the USD bull market
medium term. However, Fed concern about a strong USD will delay but not cancel Fed normalisation while more
than twenty non-US Central Banks easing monetary policy this year so far keep policy divergence alive while we
wait for the Fed. More generally, we think there is still another 10% or so to go in USD gains versus G10
currencies medium term.

Stronger EA data near term and positioning unwinds may extend EUR upside for a while but a trend reversal is
unlikely since the currency is critical to ECB plans for higher inflation/ inflation expectations. We still see sub-parity
over 6-12m.

USD/JPY continues to consolidate in similar fashion following previous QE announcements aftermaths. We still
target 130+ medium term but this may need anticipation of news from either the Fed or any additional QE from the
BoJ.

The upcoming UK election will be a GBP flashpoint, but post-election policy risks are receding. We see sterling inbetween EUR weakness and USD strength.

The story remains the same in the $Bloc. Weaker commodities and terms of trade will weigh on AUD, NZD and
CAD and may force local central banks to ease further.

In EM we have further cut our FX forecasts. We now expect EM FX vs. USD to weaken by 6% over 6-12m, versus
4% in February. CEEMEA remains the biggest drag (-11% vs. USD) compared to Asia (-3%) and Latam (-4%).
Link to full article :
https://ir.citi.com/m5k1MOEBm45u6EdA9Y0V4StcN5aXJP6rI89aU3T3YKt2DU0ld1OPEA%3D%3D
Top Warrants & Stopped Out Warrants
Warrant Code
XJOQOA
WBCJOK
RHCKOE
WPLKOR
SIRKOE
Previous day’s top warrants by value and volume
Value
Citi
Warrant Code
$1,014,440
Citi Sells
XJOQOA
$216,020
Citi Sells
FMGQOB
$178,598
Citi Sells
SIRKOE
$148,131
Citi Buys
XJOKOY
$133,049
Citi Buys
KARKOF
Volume
361,800
200,000
100,000
55,500
49,000
Citi
Citi Sells
Intraday
Citi Buys
Citi Buys
Citi Sells
Stopped Out Warrants
Warrant Code
Strike
Stop Loss
Remaining Value
Stop Loss Date
Final Listing Date
WPLKOU
NCMKOV
39.9638
14.9073
35.99
13.42
$3.92
$1.455
23/03/2015
23/03/2015
25/03/2015
25/03/2015
Headlines & Highlights



Key data: US Existing Home Sales MoM (Feb) (1.2%, 1.7% exp, -4.9% prev). Eurozone Consumer Confidence
(Mar A) (-3.7, -6 exp, -6.7 prev). Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence (Mar 20) (55, 54.6 prev). US Chicago Fed
Nat Activity Index (Feb) (-11.0%, 10.0% exp, -10.0% prev).
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said raising interest rates from near zero “likely will be
warranted before the end of the year” and subsequent increases probably won’t be uniform or predictable. “A
smooth path upward in the federal funds rate will almost certainly not be realized” as the economy encounters
shocks such as the surprise plunge in oil prices, Fischer, said on Monday in remarks to the Economic Club of New
York.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel encouraged Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to follow the path set out by
Greece’s creditors, saying his country belongs in Europe and she wants its economy to succeed. “We want Greece
to be economically strong, we want Greece to have growth,” Merkel said. “And I think we share the view that this
requires structural reforms, solid finances and a functioning administration.”
Overnight
Equities | S&P 2109 (0.0%) | Stoxx600 401 (-0.7%) | FTSE 7038 (0.2%)
 U.S stocks rose slightly on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing up by +0.1% following last Friday’s strong
performance as data released showed that sales of existing homes rose +1.2% in February.
 Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher said on Monday that raising interest rates “likely will be warranted before the
end of the year” and that subsequent increases will not be uniform or predictable.
 Seven of the S&P 500’s ten main sector groups rose, led by gains in the Consumer Staples space. The worst
performer of the S&P 500 was railroad operator Kansas City Southern, which fell -7.8% as they cut their full year
revenue forecast.
 In Europe, market performance was mixed as most national benchmarks pulled back slightly from record highs
achieved last week.
 The Stoxx 600 lost -0.7% as ECB President Mario Draghi spoke at the European Parliamentary committee during
afternoon trade, saying that there has been increased momentum in Eurozone growth as a result of lower oil prices
and declines in the euro.
 London’s FTSE 100 index touched a record peak early in the session, before pulling back slightly and closing up
+0.2% to a new record close of 7,037.67 points.
 Greek stocks continued to be the largest outperformer in the region, with the Athex Composite index surging
+2.97% in anticipation of an upcoming meeting with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor
Angela Merkel in Berlin.
 Germany’s DAX 30 index lost -1.2% and the CAC 40 fell -0.7%.
Foreign exchange | AUDUSD 0.7890 (1.03%) | DXY 96.8720 (-1.01%) | EURUSD 1.0957 (1.33%)




The US dollar fell for a second straight session against a basket of major currencies on Monday after traders
unwound bullish dollar positions on the likelihood that the Fed policy will be accommodative over the near term.
EURUSD traded higher ahead of key European data today. EURUSD traded from 1.0620 to 1.1040 in the space of
two hours during its overnight trading. The pound however, traded lower weighed by worries over the outcome of
the national election in early May and doubts over whether British interest rates will rise any time soon. GBPUSD
traded in the range of 1.4839-1.4989 overnight.
The softening greenback has pushed the AUDUSD pair higher overnight. AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.7890,
up 1.01% overnight. NZDUSD spiked higher late in yesterday’s trading session with rumours of a large exporter
buy order.
The Canadian dollar continued to strengthen against the greenback on Monday as last week’s US dollar selloff
against major currencies was given another push by comments from the US Fed official. The Russian rouble was
weaker in early trade on Monday, with a drop in crude prices outweighing higher demand for the currency due to
monthly tax payments.
Commodities | Gold 1190 (0.48%) | Oil (WTI) 47.41 (1.80%) | Copper 291.50 (5.05%)

Gold continued to climb on speculation that the Federal Reserve will delay raising US interest rates.


Crude advanced as the USD dropped against all but one of its 16 major counterparts, extending last week’s fall.
The International Copper Study Group estimated Copper’s output deficit in 2014 was 475,000 metric tonnes..
Trading Calendar
ECONOMICS
-
Aus ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf. Index(110.8 prev)
-
Aus Conf. Board Leading Index MoM (Jan) (0.004 prev)
-
US Feb CPI
China March Prelim Manuf. PMI
UK Feb CPI
Overnight Summary
(Source: Reuters)
Last
5,956
5,955
Change
-19
-2
%
Change
-0.32%
-0.03%
Past
Month
0.49%
1.29%
Major World Indices
Dow
S&P500
Nasdaq
-- Europe -UK
Last
18,116
2,104
5,011
Change
-12
-4
-15
%
Change
-0.06%
-0.17%
-0.31%
Past
Month
0.00%
-0.25%
1.01%
7,038
15
0.22%
1.82%
Germany
11,896
-144
-1.19%
6.87%
Nikkei
Hong Kong
Korea
19,754
24,495
2,037
194
119
-1
0.99%
0.49%
-0.03%
6.19%
-1.03%
3.06%
Currencies
$A / $US
$A / Stg
$A / Euro
Last
0.7887
0.52735
0.7202
Change
0.0238
0.0089
0.0027
%
Change
3.11%
1.72%
0.38%
Past
Month
1.09%
4.49%
4.63%
96.983
-0.935
-0.95%
2.54%
Australian Indices
ASX 200
SPI
-- Asia / Pacific --
DXY (USD Basket)
A$ TWI
$US / Yen
Metals (LME) / Energy
Gold - spot
Oil - WTI
64.7
0.9
1.41%
1.25%
119.74
-0.29
-0.24%
-0.79%
Last
Change
%
Change
Past
Month
1,191.00
46.85
8.36
1.13
0.71%
2.47%
-0.89
-3.50
Metals (LME-3mth official, $USc / lb)
Aluminium
81.56
0.09
0.11%
0.39%
Copper
277.60
3.40
1.24%
7.90%
Nickel
648.64
2.49
0.39%
1.24%
62.40
-1.65
-2.58%
-11.93%
2475.00
31.00
1.27%
-1.59%
53.71
54.81
1.71
0.15
3.29%
0.27%
-13.55%
-13.60%
Last
%
Change
A$ equiv
Spread
Thml Coal (Newcastle)
SHFE Steel Rebar
Iron Ore 3M Future usd
Iron Ore
Dual Listed Co's
BHP Billiton plc
Rio plc
NWS A
BHP ADR
Cash Rates
Australia
US
Euro
1,591
2,943
16.88
49.41
3.38%
0.96%
0.24%
2.81%
30.17
55.80
21.40
31.32
Futures
2.25
0.25
0.05
Next
2.11
0.13
0.00
Next + 1
2.00
0.22
0.03
2.75%
4.32%
0.81%
1.04%
Contacts
Elizabeth Tian
02 8225 6154
[email protected]
Carsten Jensen
02 8225 6184
[email protected]
web: www.citifirst.com.au
ph: 1300 30 70 70
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